Beren's is a fairly new bio analyst with MS coming from a much smaller firm where he was a mediocre at best rated analyst. He's a former ER room physician. He apparently tried to make a big splash with his initial opinions by putting a buy on ZSPH and essentially a sell on RLYP on the same day. Investors tanked RLYP and ZSPH skyrocketed. Then he got really "lucky" and ALIOY shortly thereafter made an offer for ZSPH followed by offers from some others including AZN and the rest is history.
Beren's continues to trash R LYP and most recently dropped his price target to 9 which is by far the lowest on Wall Street by almost 20 points. His stance has obviously gone beyond the bonds of objectivity and is more likely personal now than anything. He's out to prove that he is right and everyone else is "wrong". Egos on parade, and his most recent downgrade coming just before our RLYP started to take off, could've really hurt MS clients if they shorted on the day of FDA approval and are still holding their short positions.
In the end the data will win out. IMHO AZN made an ill advised spontaneous offer for a company with a drug that is far inferior to Veltassa in my opinion. Time will tell, but the market seems to be finally ackknowledging
that at the very worst the hyperkalemia market will be equally split between two companies, one of which is grossly undervalued, and that is RLYP.
Tend to agree...A lot of shorts have probably been covering of late. Those who didn't are getting squeezed bigtime.... After what Berren's did to this stock I must admit it's kind of fun to see those who followed his short advice on his most recent "$9" RLYP call, are getting their heads handed to them.
European rights to Veltassa could likely be reacquired from Frensius for return of consideration paid plus a nice profit to date. If not, the deal made by RLYP for up to 20% royalties plus additional considerations, is not too shabby. That's pure profit. In addition, sales and approvals in Europe tend to be prolonged events subject to numerous EUR insurance reimbursement rules and regs that vary country to country.
The US and Japan are the big markets and RLYP retained exclusive rights to those....
abc... You are correct.... Was unfortunately doing it for memory...Recall it being a multiple of 3 mil...lol!
Margin calls..... Depends on how much collateral or FME you have in your brokerage account. Depends
on how much pain you can withstand as well. LOL....
If you're short and facing not only a stock rising, but one that could be bought out north of $40 at any
moment.... You have to have a lot of guts to continue to hold your short position in the face of all of that...
Would love to see us get this one over $24 today and see what the shorts do on Monday when they come back from the holidays....LOL,,,,
Would otherwise agree Lurk but there are quite a few bios recently that have shown similar strength of late...
CEMP for one up from the $25 level to $33... QURE....$16's to $22... MGNX,,,$25's to $35 etc. All within a
month.... Love the action though on RLYP!!
Script numbers.... I know there is a site but I simply can't find it....Someone here will know it.....
AMRN board use to tract their numbers almost weekly so I'll try and find it.....
2nd largest drug market after the U.S. Focus recently on generics to lower costs but Japanese people still do not entirely trust non name brands. Aricept for ALZ in the leading seller in Japan followed by two hypertension drugs. Interesting. Could be a great spot for Veltassa if the BP data continues to show it lowers BP, and terrible for ZS-9.
Two (2) years ago tomorrow to be exact. First two posts....Nov. 27, 2013....Called RLYP the "real deal" and said the worldwide markets could be as high as 10 bil...(ok...kinda optimistic). Funny how time flies. Alot has happened in those two years huh?
Justa....Happy Thanksgiving to you and all RLYP longs.... Hey...Put me in the 2.5 bil and above camp...
We're sitting on a huge winner here IMHO. I've owned it since it went public....Sold it when it went to $33 after it initially went public. Bought it later back in the 25-30.'s...Boujght a ton more when it went to $11 during the recent dip selloff ..Now average almost $21 exactly on a very large position. Not selling a share.
I don't see it being a big deal either way frankly. Over $30 especially. But I don't see one close within the next six months. We have a lot of cash in the bank plus the 6.6 mil coming in from Fresenius each month for awhile so we should be just fine. Plus this one is just lining up to be taken out IMHO. Later in 2016 perhaps but it should happen if sales are anything decent for the first six months.
Playing the what if game?
What if ZS9 gets approved in May subject to doing DDI studies but with a black box warning not to be used by
people suffering from hypertension or on hypertension meds; people diagnosed with CHF or CKD; people who have suffered edema. Plus all those on restricted low sodium diets and intake.
Game over. RLYP should be worth a minimum of 3 bil in that case.
So if you were a prospective buyer in the hyperkalemia treatment market today, and you compete directly with AZN in the drug markets, and there is one only public company available already with an FDA approved drug and no others even remotely on the horizon, what would you do?
Risk paying 1.9 billion now for RLYP (800 mill less than AZN paid for ZSPH), or have to pay up to 4 bil
in six to nine more months for the same company? Looks like a no brainer to me frankly.
IMHO...Everyone should do their own DD and come to your own conclusions!
Ironically getting approval in Japan is normally a rather lengthy and arduous process. They make it that way on purpose. As for sales in Japan? Again you would think because of the aged population and sheer size of the country good US drugs would have robust mega hundreds of millions in dollars in sales. Not normally so though. US drugs by and large do not do that well in Japan. Tough market. Very protected.
RLYP will not sell out for a price "above" $30... No way....Offers would have to be north of $40 and more than likely $45-$50 IMHO. I do expect a buyout offer frankly as early as Q1 of 2016. If Veltassa starts catching on the longer a big pharma waits the more it's going to cost them. My guess is that SNY is the suitor too. Just makes too much sense frankly. IMHO!!!
Of course if ZS9 is black boxed on numerous issues when they go before the FDA in May, all bets are off.
Then the price could double frankly....
Lurker... You are correct. I just looked at the latest ML report Nov 6th) and they have sales estimated in 2016 of 48 million. Nice... Sorry for the earlier post.
Same to you Kei and all RLYP longs but I'll get alot more excited when we're over $40....
Have a safe and fun Thanksgiving. Remember market closes at 10:00 AM PSTon Friday,
The big clinical blockbuster IMHO would be if Veltassa reduced BP during normal use to an extent that high BP patients would not require BP medication in addition to Veltassa. That my friends would be a game changer frankly.
You are dead right that the potential is staggering but as we all know...You can't spend potential though.
Even the company has said to expect a slow ramp in sales. Doctors need to be educated on the benefits of Veltassa and from those I have spoken to...some will wait and see how the product is used by other doctors and how their patients are doing on it before they perscribe it to theirs.
But once it catches on it should go like wild fire I suspect. If two years out sales are above 150 mil I think we're off to the races and sales will increase expodentially year after year from there.
What is the company worth? Difficult to say. But I think a very conservative number right now would
be $45-$50. Should only get better IMHO...