Oh, I like that Babe Ruth analogy.... The big Bambino...Let's hope CEMP hits at least $60 (the magic number of homeruns Ruth hit in 1927)...lol!
Thanks so much for taking the time to do the analysis on the recent quarter. The marlets were not obviously thrilled by the report, as they were rigthtfully expecting more from the perceived best of class MLP...
.71 coverage for the current dividend is obviously way too low. Especially looking forward when the hedges start to decline in benefits. Cost savings alone is not how you want to address increasing dividend coverage.
Not sure what they can really do outside of that but I'd rather seem them buy back stock at current levels rather than throw more money into some second rate MLP that they may be able to buy on the :"cheap".
Cheap often begits cheaper unfortuantely....
Gains on derivative settlements were 137 million for the first quarter of 2015....That is the hedging I was referring to nuri...Do you understand now how this works? That's real money...Real profits from hedging the price of oil in the first quarter of 2015.
Come on guys and gals. Stocks go up...stocks go down. The point here is that we're all invested in a great company with the leading antibiotic in the world. It WILL become the SOC for gram positive bacterias.
A buyout...?? IMHO chances are around 80% yes. When? Within two months before or after FDA approval.
Price... $60 or slightly north thereof. The best is yet to come! Hang in there and don't let the markets scare you out of your stock!
Looks to me this is a technical move down for CEMP and we're putting in a double bottom in here. After that CEMP should move back up. Bios have become traders now rather than buy and holds. Traders playing the game of buy on the dips to support, then sell on the rallies. All of those up yesterday are down today...TTPH - 3.4%...TGTX..-6.3%.....VTL.... -4.7%.....RLYP.... -4.51%.....MGNX...-4%etc. etc. This too shal pass....
We're all very glad to have the contributions and expertise of longs such as yourself and kiddo.... It's been a very good sign in the past when physicians owned some of these antibiotic stocks. 2 for 2 in buyouts! LOL....
GL to all longs, and all I will add at this time is a line from the title of a famous very oldie but goodie..."The Best is Yet to Come" (Sinatra if any of you out there are that old...(I am) )...LOL
Kiddo and anyone else who wants to chime in... Opinions welcomed.
XBIT is a farily new IPO that focuses on novel treatments for cancers and other deadly diseases using monoclonal antibody techonology. Yes...that technology has been around it seems since I was a fairly
young man but this company is apparently engaged in a variation of it that I coudln't attempt to explain in
a 1,000 years. Their first drug is an early stage Phase 3 trial involving advanced stage CRR (colorectal
cancer). There is no known cure for advanced CRR.
Treatments vary from radiation early on....to surgery....to chemo...to monoclonal antibody drugs such as
Erbitux which is a billion dollar a year selling drug. Problem with Erbitux is it is a dreadful drug to take..
Really bad. Warnings all over the label. So the four months on average it gives you is from a quality of
life standpoint pretty dreadful. The XBIT drug thus far will probably exhibit the same or better survival
data but it has shown virtually zero side effects. So your quality of life is far far better. Also could be a
good alternative to chemo. Would appreciate anyone who looks into this to render their opinion.
I'm long the stock for disclousre purposes from $19...TIA....
Downandout... Your story is one of real life and hopefully you'll continue to be active and doing well until they find a cure for the darn thing. They've made great strides in MS (as you obviously know) in the last decade.
God be with you may man!
Would suggest that everyone go to Seeking Alpha and read the conference call transcript following earnings if you have not already done so. A must read for all longs IMHO. The future is very bright gang...Very.
Downandout....I've been at this a long time and learned one thing that is a definite fact...Everyone on a message board has something to learn, and we can all learn from eachother for all of our mutual benefits.
Whet I first got into TSRX (an antibiotic stock) at $7 it was a small antibiotic company with a good product
and good management. The board had some physicians on board who taught us/me quite a bit about
antibiotics and clinical trials. When TSRX got bought out one of them suggested looking atDRTX...Also around
$7-$8 at the time. Got into that one and it got bought out at $23.50. Some folks on that board who I trusted then gravitated to CEMP around $9. I did the same. Been very nice so far.
Bottom line...It pays to be nice to other posters. It pays to listen and learn from everyone...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
AK....You and I are now done man. Calling me a cheerleader is definitely not called for. Nor is your jealously and obvious wish of ill will for me over the last few posts you have made. Suffice it to say I can buy and sell you 20x's over with what I have made in the stock market over the years, and not lose a breath. My record here and other boards and stocks stand for themselves. You on the other hand only have losing ones and
you don't have the guts to post your buys or sells when you do them either.
If you can't figure out that buying a stock large at $18 (RLYP) that is still over $30 was not a profitable move...or buying CEMPRA large at $9 (and adding at $31) which is now almost $33 (down from $41),"
then you're truly beyond hope. I post my buys and sells here for all to see which is alot more than I can say for you pal. By the way..#$%$...
PDUFA stand for Prescription Drug User Fee Act (1992) which sets the date for final review of a drug application (called a NDA) generally within 10 months to a year from when the application is accepted.
PDUFA dates are like final exams. You either pass it with flying colors ...barely pass with all sorts of qualifications....or you flunk. I think the best guess is that CEMPRA will file for an NDA for Soli in the first quarter of next year and will likely be assigned a PDUFA date before the end of 2016...At least that is my personal hope.
More than welcome chiraag.... I would franbkly hold through FDA approval and beyond. . FDA approval here is a non event. A PDUFA date has been set for Oct. with no panel committee set before it. The drug has proven to be effective, with little side effects, and was followed up for a year with sterling results. Nobody is expecting Patiromer not be be approved so on approval the stock should rally very little I suspect.
BUT once the drug is approved and they start to market it there is going to be alot of excitment to see
how well it does initially. If sales are decent IMHO this company gets taken over. It's a one drug company
with 100 mil plus cash on hand and little debt. No on-going drug programs to fund or worry about. Mfg. already in place...Ditto a sales force by the time approval comes around. IMHO if it is taken over the price
will be somewhere in the 50's....A perfect fit for big pharma if you think about it.........
Thanks wizardoz... I did in fact spend some time this weekend researching the issues I raised and came to the exact same conclusions as stated in your post. Thank you. The side effects on the current SOC and especially Erbitux with black box warnings are brutal. A life extension without going through virtual hell
is indeed a huge benefit and could well become the preferred SOC of CRC. Next time I will do my homework
before asking a question like that!
Adeelmd...One last thing... COPD/NASH is just the icing on the cake here. Soli is going to be the SOC go to antibiotic in the industry. Safety profile has been excellent in thousands of patients. No issues there. They were talking about potential drug-drug intereaction issues with both TSRX and DRTX and nothing came of it
and they were both taken over. This is a one decision stock as far as I'm concerned and I've owned it since
$9 and have been adding on all of these major pullbacks to boot...
When CEMP is bought out it will likely be to a very large pharmaceutical so the upside then, purely on
Soli, will be quite muted. Kinda like when MRK bought out CBST...then the largest pure antibiotic company in the world. MRK is so large that the CBST acquisition barely moved the needle on earnings. And how do we know CEMP is a "she" by the way? Ships are "she's"....Whales are "she's"....("there she blows!")...But antibiotic companies? OK...Will give you the benefit of the doubt on that one!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I recently went long this stock in the low 19's....
What bothered me a bit about the background research I did before buying it was it appeared that the
company didn't really have any realistic belief that the Phase 3 trials would result in any cure, or even
meaningful remission, or even stabilization of a patients CRC. At best it seems the trials will show it hopefully "slows down" the advancement of the disease and offer an alternative to chemotherapy. The safety profite thus far does look outstanding and definitely superior to the current SOC-Erbitux...
Is that how others out there have read the earlier data, or am I missing something here?
Thanks much timlincecumcapital and timmyismad for correcting my earlier reading of the trial data. Looks much better than my first glance at it. GLTALs.... Again...sorry for my rush to judgment earlier!!