This holiday season. Let's take a closer look:
1. In 2014 very few sellers(less than 25 percent) used FBA, now almost all do(90 percent). 200 times 36 percent = 128 million net
2. Amazon claims a lot more prime customers this year over last. 128 minus 45 = 83 million net
3. Amazon does over 2.5 billion shipments per year. 2.5 times 35 percent= 875 million shipments in the 4th quarter
conclusion: 83/875 = 9.5 percent increase in shipments, way short of the 25 plus percent that wallstreet has priced in.
The EU is coming after them. Hilary Clinton is coming after them and the worst enemy they could have Donald Trump is going after them. No matter who becomes president in 2017, it is going to be a nightmare for amazon and other multinationals.
Nov 12, 2015 at 11:14 AM
Amazon: The Dumbest Competitor In America’s Most Popular Commodity-Like Business
investors have talked about Amazon’s ability to one day, “turn on the profits.” Right now the company is simply focused on taking market share and during this process they don’t care about making any profit at all, as the story goes. But someday, this will change, investors say.With a Wal-Mart-like profit margin (3.5%) and multiple (14 p/e) it would take Amazon 11 years to grow into its current $300 billion market cap, assuming it continues to grow revenues at 18% as it has over the prior four quarters. With a Costco-like margin (1.83%) and multiple (25) it would take 12 years as it would with Target-like metrics (2.36% and 16p/e). Finally, if the company decided to simply maintain its current average profit margin of 0.42% and investors still afforded it a multiple like its peers it would take over 20 years to grow into its current valuation. Now, it needs to be said that an 18% growth rate for perpetuity means the company will be doing over $6 trillion in sales 25 years from now...