That would depend if bond holders are willing to restructure deal, take some stock instead. It would definitely be highly dilutive to Antero shareholders, so approval would certainly be needed. I'm not counting on a buyout right now. A sale of non-core assets is the next step. I think you see that, then drawdown of debt before any buyout occurs.
I'm not sure Antero would want CRK's bond debt problem, Antero is a very well run company that has managed to make money even in this poor pricing environment. I could however see Antero as a buyer of the properties CRK has for sale. Hey, would be great if CRK gets bought out at $4-6 though...I'd be very, very happy.
Sorry prime, your wrong here, just like you were on the wrong side of GDP. At least that 75 IQ of yours doesn't allow you to elaborate. Thank god for small miracles huh.
ageed, but CRK has some time to figure it out. Hopefully they can convince the bondholders to swap for some stock...and maybe a sale of some non-core assets to raise a bit of cash. will probably be an ugly quarter due to oil and gas prices. Let us see how CRK can control expenses in this environment.
Earnings will be ugly. Most of the quarter oil and gas were at the lows, only recently have commodity prices been climbing out of the cellar. This CC isn't about what has already happened, but what will happen with debt reduction and, sale of non-core assets...in general, a plan to avoid insolvency and make some money once natgas prices climb, and they will again. This CC is definitely one of the most important in CRK's history.
you actually make a valid point about Iusacell. Had that worked out as planned then you have a $5 dollar stock. I have been hard on the company, as well as Turner, cause I still haven't seen any evidence of a company he has turned around, but having said that he is giving it the ol college try, and I'll tip the cap to him on that one. Not invested, but watching from afar. Hope it works out for the LONG suffering investors. Hell I'll even jump in if the ship can patch the leaks.
Most of CRK's debt isn't due until 2020. They are in much better shape than other stressed oil & natgas companies, but yes they are stressed nonetheless. The long case is that there is still plenty of time to wait for a rise in prices and continue to exchange debt for equity.
It is a risky investment no doubt. Need some restructuring without wiping out shareholders (shelf, probably), and natgas to rebound above 3.00. Then they survive.
Anyone shorting natgas right now is playing a dangerous game. Rig count continues to go down. No one is profitable at these prices, which means natgas companies will shut down ops until the price gets back to 2.50-3.00, where at least most can break even. Fall natgas futures are telling u that. Now is the time to go long, not short.
I'm long CRK, but the bear case can easily be made. Natgas glut and CRK debt. If you believe a prolonged glut of natgas combined with CRK's high debt will persist, then yes the company probably goes under, with a lot of other companies just like it. No one in the natgas business is profitable at this price level, except for those with higher hedges, but those hedges are also about to term out. Companies like CRK will just shut er' down until the glut is gone and natgas is back over 2.50- 3.00, where most a least can break even or squeeze out earnings. Fall futures are already planning for it.
fields are kicking serious butarooksi due to technology advancements, and can be profitable at $2.00 natgas. You should do some DD before you post. Looks like you've been on the wrong side of the OIL/GAS trade for a while now...going with UWTI when oil is plummeting and DWTI when it's rising. Sorry u have no idea what you are doing, but not our problem.
20% profit at $2.00 natgas price and 30% at $2.50 for the Haynes/Bossier wells, written transcript was incorrect. Will add more this week if the SP continues to stagnate. Oil/Gas will rise again soon, that's just the way it is in the world.
According to the last CC - CRK finished 10 NATGAS wells that are 200% profitable at $2.00 natgas price. most others profitable at $2.50-3.00. CRK in my humble opinion is an excellent risk play, given strong management and debt restructuring underway. Nothing major due for debt anyways for the next 3 years. Any decent rebound in oil above 50 and NATGAS above 2.50 then CRK is a 10 dollar stock....but even if natgas/oil remain at current levels for awhile CRK can wait it out until the inevitable rebound.
The problem is that I don't think anyone really believed the OPEC freeze talks anyway, at least not for longer than a day trade. At some point you have to ask why does oil continue to go up, not why doesn't oil do what I think it should do. Could be technical, just a bounce off an oversold commodity. Could be futures traders are thinking about the next presidency, and what might happen if certain people get in office. Trump has all but said he's going to war pretty much the day he takes office - with ISIS. That means boots on the ground and more regional instability. There are also a lot of stressed out oil and gas companies that are days to months away from going under if they can't renegotiate their debt. Hard to say but I would be careful here, it could run to 50 quickly before pulling back a bit.
2 days ago Gartman said he is neither short nor long oil, believing it will trade in range about 4 dollars either side of today's price for the next 6 months...nice try though.