billy, that's even better but market is not very much excited. Let's see what EIA report says. Maybe US oil export is helping a bit. First crude export launched last week but I couldn't find how much oil the ship was carrying. Another one planned for this week. Brian
FWIW, API: Crude supplies fall 5.6M barrels: The 5.6M barrel decline in the week ended Jan. 1 stands against trade expectations for a fall of 2.75M barrels.
Most likely, EIA report tomorrow will override whatever number API reported.
Mike, How are you? I read about those rules. There's also a rule that states if one adds opposite position to carry the winning position to more than a year, the position should be considered closed when opposite position is entered. But, brokers are not reflecting those rules when generating 1099. When an option at loss is rolled to next week/month, closed option is not marked as wash sale. The same applies to option to stock and stock to option conversion/roll, except option exercise & assignment to stock. Brokers may be required to implement those rules in the future just as brokers were required to add cost basis in 1099 in phases, first for stocks and then options and so on. For two accounts in different brokers, each broker generates their own 1099 and it's too much to expect individuals to combine them, figure out and report wash sales. I think until brokers' and IRS' software gets more complicated, those cases are covered.
Oil report coming up soon. I guess up/down in oil & NG past couple of days giving you good trading opportunities. Good luck trading today. Brian
No need for apologies, we all learn from each other. Back in the year when I started shorting, I tried hard to keep the winning short position for a year to make it long term gain for less tax. Then, when I posted my plan, someone corrected me that all short positions are short term no matter how long you hold and cannot be long term. I hate that rule but I am thankful to the guy who corrected me back then.
Selling options seems to bring back that dilemma, want decent premium in options that are sold, but the options with decent premiums becomes quite volatile every once in awhile. Similar with shorting leveraged ETFs, having volatility decay on one's side is nice but when they go up they can really shoot up much more than one think. I think it comes down to risk management and fund allocation in my case, which I am still trying to improve. Good luck trading, Brian
Thanks pro, I was able to google and watch it.
Came across similar projection:
In fact, as WLKY reports, in past El Ninos that peaked early like this year and had the core the warm water in the Pacific out in the central part of the ocean... like this year... the last half of winter was much colder than the first half of winter 90% of the time.
Seems like these forecasts are based on different weather model (European, JAMSTEC, not quite sure). So it appears it gets down to which model the real weather will follow or rather which model predicts the real weather better this time. Brian
konn, it will appear in your 1099 for this year as wash sale if you sell at year end and repurchase in Jan. 1099 is not generated as of 12/31. Instead, it's generated after 30 day wash sale period has passed from year end. Gains Keeper record for prior year will change in Jan if positions sold at loss are repurchased in Jan. What you described can work for delaying EIT to next quarter. Government is rather thorough in collecting what they want to collect. NG is just moving too much too fast. Hope you're adjusting your positions well. Good Luck. I need that too. Brian
It is by trading date. But for short positions, it may be by the day prior, so by 12/31 for long, and by 12/30 for short to be safe. Short positions traded on 12/31 may appear on next year's and not this year's. Happened to me and clarified with broker (not sure whether this was for opening or closing short position). Better to check with broker if planning on doing this for short position.
By the way, if one wants to avoid wash sale, either use two accounts (close in one account and open in another account), or with one account, close long position, buy deep ITM options for the same position (deep ITM options doesn't of much time value) and hold it for a month (or roll for a month for weeklies), and then switch back to share position. Don't exercise deep ITM options into shares in this case. If exercised, opening date is not exercise date but option entry date which creates wash sale. It's ugly way of doing it but when other options run out, this can do. Of course this is when alternate ETF is not there such as regular stocks.
Been seeing cherry blossom for past couple of days in neighbor town, 3 trees, near NY. Seems anything is possible these days. Not sure about the guys lived long enough but never saw cherry blossom in December.
Good to see NG/oil rebound from lows. I guess the question is where do they go from here. Account looks whole lot better for now. Frustrating that lots of gain is taken away as tax, even more frustrating on top of that is ending up being in higher tax bracket unnecessarily due to gain not evenly spread across years and mis-managed wash sales. Been a while but still not getting used to it. Maybe I'm too greedy or expecting too much from myself. It's difficult to finish a year with decent gain, let alone tax efficient gain. Wish everyone wrap up year end well and start a good one.
VXX was relatively strong compared to S&P today since market open. Maybe it's compensating relative weakness in VXX for the past 2 days. But still, I felt VXX was behaving unusual all day today. In the past, sometimes VXX was strong when S&P was hoovering near top. VIX dropping another dollar is a relief. Front month VIX future is about $2.50 higher than VIX future. It's early in the month for front month VIX future but $2.50 seems high enough. Hoping that I didn't miss another chance to close some.
Went to see Star Wars in the afternoon. Account was up nice when I got back from the movie. Having another tough year end, letting alone adjusting for better tax position. It's almost Christmas, haven't seen snow yet, ski slope is not open yet. Seems like it will be a long boring Christmas to New Year holidays. Hope things change soon.
Wish Everyone Merry Christmas & A Happy New Year.
jsp, fortunately, still some plus YTD. I guess it depends on where the market goes from here. Could become quite a good year, or another painful year end. Wish you the same.
The Fed raised. Just shows the disconnect between what I think and what the FED and market thinks. Just grateful the market is not tanking so far. Can't comprehend the way things are going, rate raised, gold is holding up, financials are up a bit today but after beaten down bad far below their recent highs.
Not sure whether the market will hold, hope it does, but remains to be seen. At least VXX lost its strength. Finally, the main drama is over, quad witching still hangs around though.
lf, I'm hanging in there. Still thinking no rate hike, but obviously market doesn't think so. To me, nothing improved since Sep domestically, things are getting worse except unemployment that the FED tracks. Strong dollar, commodities rout, junk bond rout. Not sure whether the FED will be brave enough to gamble under these conditions. But that's just me thinking and nothing to do with what the market or the FED thinks.
Even if FED end up not raising, a lot of damage can be done in a couple of days before the announcement. Out of 3 scenarios, rate hike, rate hike with some goodies like once and done or sub quarter, or no hike, Odds don't seem to favor market crash, but again that's just me.
Not a recommendation to anyone, just what I feel. Good luck trading.
merenkov, what is typical spread between buy/sell prices for 30Y bonds in your broker? When I asked about sell price, my broker quoted close to 1% less than buy price at the moment, e.g., buy 135.01 sell 133.80, buy 128.23 sell 127.07, buy 117.12 sell 116.0. That seems a lot of difference. I'm wondering whether this is typical or whether it's because I asked them towards stock market close, 4PM.
Started reducing market short positions on market weakness.
Closed 20 URI weekly puts bought.
Bought GASL shares 1 set.
Closed 40 JO Mar 2016 puts sold.
Closed 500 MLNX shares short.
Closed 1K DFS shares short.
Closed 2 BLK Dec puts bought.
Closed GASL shares 1 set.
Closed 5 HAS Jan 2017 calls sold.
A bit of USO day trading. Added to SCO short.
Account keeps getting affected by oil and NG.
Closed 15 URI deep ITM puts bought.
Added to SCO deep ITM puts long..
Account good plus thanks to VXX drop. What a day and what a market. The party goes on while commodities crash. Another down day for oil. Appears I'm missing the chance to get gold again. Much waited weekend. Need time to relax and rest.
Closed 10 HAS deep ITM puts bought.
Rolled 2/3 options to next week on market weakness, 1/3 left for tomorrow.
Account some minus. VXX bounce is messing up the accounts. Oil & NG bounce is a bit of relief today. Finally, Nov jobs and OPEC oil tomorrow. Getting tired.
Bought 2 BLK deep ITM Dec puts.
Closed 1.2K UTX shares short.
Bought 5 GS weekly deep ITM puts.
Bought UNG shares 1 unit.
Sold 4 KOLD Feb 2016 deep ITM calls.
Bought USO shares 1 unit.
Bought 4 SCO weekly deep ITM puts.
Account huge minus. VXX came down to recent low but bounced back up again. Tomorrow NG report, Friday Nov jobs report and OPEC meeting result, should be interesting. Doesn't look very promising for the oil. Still thinking rate hike is wishful thinking (one of the reasons I don't want to let go much of VXX short shares), but what do I know, just trying to hedge when possible.
bigmountain, I appreciate your response. I am trying to buy physical not for short term trade, but to keep it for long time and also for SHTF. So, $25 over spot is not too bad.
I traded AGQ/ZSL in the past a bit but not much. I like the decay (for shorting) in ZSL & AGQ due to high volatility you mentioned.
Do you trade GLD? If yes, does GLD also suffer from decay due to monthly future roll like oil or NG too? I don't see much contango in futures, just 0.1 - 0.4%.
It would be great if you can share your view on metals once in a while. Thank you, Brian
Nice to have chance to talk to someone who deals with physical PM. Do you have reasons that you prefer silver over gold, other than the reasons you mentioned, commission & gold/silver ratio?
I read demand for silver coins keeps going up and also the premium along with it. Some people are surely finding the needs to own PMs. If you traded physical gold before, what do you recommend, coin vs 1 oz bar and which brand in case of 1 oz bar?
I was not considering silver due to physical space. Do you buy silver bars or coins? Do you consider gold/silver ratio when you time your buys?
About the party going, I wasn't referring to dollar, but to equities, easy money, bond, etc. Crash can still come with dollar staying as reserve currency just like in the past.
Does weight on XIV mean you are discounting rate hike in Dec?