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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

goodoptday 536 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 1, 2015 4:19 PM Member since: Feb 21, 2012
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  • Reply to

    VXX 2/25/15

    by goodoptday Feb 25, 2015 7:23 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Mar 1, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Good for you. I missed it again. Working at client's office these days, and difficult to focus on the market movement. It seems there's good support there. I was hoping it goes down further.

    Waiting for a little bit further down in UNG as weather starts to go up. NG future 2.5 seems good entry price but afraid of it falling further during the shoulder season. Good Luck Trading.

  • Reply to

    VXX 2/25/15

    by goodoptday Feb 25, 2015 7:23 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 26, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    Same here, tried to sell USO puts when it broke 18 after inventory report, but it went right back up in a flash. Your call on VXX bubble pop the other day was good. Good Luck Trading..

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 25, 2015 7:23 PM Flag

    Closed 2K VXX shares short. Maybe, should have closed more.

    Sold 5 SBUX Mar/end ITM calls.
    Sold 5 FSLR next week ITM calls.

    CRM is flying after earnings. Looking to sell some CRM fat calls tomorrow.

    USO, UNG price move is getting boring. Maybe they have seen the bottom, but still waiting for lower price.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 24, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    Closed just 1K VXX shares short. First VXX share short close in a long time. Would be nice if VXX goes down to touch the last low.

    Sold 5 FSLR weekly OTM calls. Thought earning was over in the morning seeing the big gap up, so sold fat calls. But, earning was after close and luckily didn't move much.

    Bought 1K JNUG. Was betting on dovish comment from Yellen but didn't move much. Not a fan of leveraged ETF long, just wanted to try out.

  • Reply to

    NATURAL GAS

    by billythart Feb 23, 2015 3:20 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 24, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    Blue, are you betting on gold one way or another before today's testimony?

  • Reply to

    NATURAL GAS

    by billythart Feb 23, 2015 3:20 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 23, 2015 10:11 PM Flag

    If UNG shares are not available for short, you can sell deep in-the-money calls or buy deep ITM puts. It's not that simple, but that's how I did it throughout 1st half of last year to short UNG, to avoid price erosion in DGAZ.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 23, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    It is just amazing to see NG pressed down on these cold weather and possible large draw coming up for a couple of weeks. Maybe, the big guys know otherwise.

    On the other hand, if it was that obvious, NG going up on a couple of weeks of very cold weather. Everyone would have made money. Tough to be long, tough to be short.

    My take is winter is over this week. colder weather in March may not affect NG storage that much given production capacity this whole winter, unless it's cold enough to freeze production, which I don't think is the case.

  • Reply to

    VXX 2/20/15

    by goodoptday Feb 20, 2015 10:54 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 23, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    VXX will probably be cut in half, then cover short, and then VXX double and then short again more. LOL. Tempted? Just teasing. So don't bet on VXX being cut to half anytime soon.

    VXX has been strong for the past couple of month. I guess we will know whether it's the precursor to a larger spike or a failed attempt at that. This time spike lasted unusually long, and that have me concerned, something that didn't happen for a long time just happened.

  • Reply to

    only up 2200%

    by eskimo_pie22 Feb 20, 2015 9:55 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 21, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    Experienced option traders, please disregard this post of mine.

    If you are feeling attracted to 2K% gains, just a couple of warnings on playing out-the-money cheap options:
    - Better to stay away if you have a habit of averaging down.
    - Better to stay away if you are not very well disciplined with fund allocation per entry or position. 100% of your money used to buy options may be lost if the underlying stock goes against you, when it didn't move at all, or even worse when it goes the direction you predicted but not far enough. So, buying cheap option is like biting a bait, odds are against you, 3 out of 4, or 4 out of 5.
    - It was said that 70% of options expire worthless.
    - Good thing with OTM cheap options is, you will just lose small amount of money if it doesn't go well, but only IF you allocate small amount of money for it and NO MORE.

    Options have time limit at which it just disappears from your account losing 100% unless it becomes in-the-money, much worse than 3x decaying as time goes by. Everyone knows this but many hope otherwise when buying them.

    If compared to casino, the house sells options and customers buy options. There are customers that are very good that makes money, and sometimes hit small jackpots to big jackpots. But, many others lose money. You need to be very well disciplined and lucky to win especially with cheap OTM options.

    Options do provide traders various strategies when used properly. I'm not good at buying OTM options. I hope for good option trading day after day.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 20, 2015 10:54 PM Flag

    20 VXX calls sold expired worthless.

    Closed 1 set of UNG Jan 2016 puts sold. Last lot of UNG long closed.

    10 DE puts bought expired worthless.

    1 set of USO calls sold expired worthless.
    Closed half a set of USO Feb/end calls sold, at $0.04. Didn't have to close leaving 100 bucks on the table. Seems I become faint-hearted, afraid of USO shooting back up before expiration.

    Finally, VIX under 15, VXX at 29, market ATH. This VXX spike was 45% from bottom lasting 2 months, the longest since 2011 market correction. If VXX doesn't hit previous low while S&P climb, may have to seriously consider closing majority of VXX shorts.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 19, 2015 8:37 PM Flag

    If Greek issue is resolved tomorrow, we should see decent down day for VXX breaking the support.

    Closed UGAZ shares long pre-market.

    Sold 5 EXPE Mar OTM calls. Starting market shorts at 5 calls instead of 10, and a month out calls just to be safer. Wanted to sell more today, AKAM, NFLX, TBT, AAPL, but decided to see whether they run further up.

    Came up with new wish for trading. As Cash for Life lottery ticket I buy on days that I make good profit becomes worthless paper, I thought to myself, let my trade pay me Cash for Life. Not very new idea since I was targeting 400 bucks per day last year, but I think it would be really good if I can pay myself the same as Cash for Life not only on trading days but just every day, just like Cash for Life. Wish this comes true this year.

  • Reply to

    THE DOW IS DOWN AND

    by billythart Feb 19, 2015 3:18 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 19, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    VXX has been my main trade for some time. Some of my VXX shorts are more than one and a half year old. I consider myself very lucky, meaning I made money from trading because I've been lucky and only because the market let me. Even with front future expiration today if there was major event say from Greece, VXX would have shot up more than S&P would come down.

    Every once in a while, market makes trader to feel humble. I got hit big by oil but in turn that made me stay away from UNG until a couple of weeks ago. Otherwise, I would have gone long at 3.50, more at 3, and on. I started at 2.8, added at 2.6 and mostly out now. They weren't major positions. Looking for re-entry lower, but looking less likely now.

  • Reply to

    THE DOW IS DOWN AND

    by billythart Feb 19, 2015 3:18 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 19, 2015 6:55 PM Flag

    Billy, VIX front month future expired this morning while there's considerable contango between spot VIX and front month VIX future, and also between front month VIX future and 2nd month VIX future. So, new front month future today had to come down, pressing VXX/UVXY/TVIX down. VIX follows S&P volatility.

    VXX wasn't down as much as I hoped on the front month future expiration today, maybe Greece is holding it up. Hoping for VXX collapse after Greek issue resolution.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 18, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    VXX still above support from end of Jan. Need VIX below 15 tomorrow.

    Sold 5 SBUX Mar-end ATM calls on TUE.

    Sold 10 DE Jun OTM calls to finance
    Buying 10 DE weekly OTM puts.
    Thought DE was not doing well.

    Closed 1 set of UNG Jan 2016 ITM calls long.
    Closed 1 set of UNG shares long.
    Hopefully, will be able to buy them back at lower price. This week and next week are cold, but seems that's the end of winter, as March temperatures are near average.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    Finally, VIX fell below 15, first time this year. With next month future high up at 18, I'm looking forward to VXX drop after VIX future expiration next week, barring surprise from Greece or FED minutes.

    Sold half a set of USO Feb/end OTM calls.

    1 set of USO calls sold expired worthless.
    1 set of UNG deep ITM calls long exercised to UNG shares.
    Half a set of UNG puts sold expired worthless.

    My finger is getting itch, wanting to short market such as EXPE, FD, AAPL, EL, AKAM, or NFLX, LNKD, FDX after they come back up to ATH, trying hard to wait until S&P makes a new ATH. AAPL went from 120 to 127 while waiting...

  • goodoptday goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    Good if you are expecting something going wrong with Greece on Monday. If not, front month future expires in a couple of days. Spot VIX is 15.33, front month 16.80, next month 18.40. After the expiration, if next month becomes front month, and then the new front month cannot stay high at 18.40 if spot VIX stays around 15.50.
    Unless something goes wrong with Greece on Monday, I'm betting that steam would come off of VXX around or after expiration. Hmm but there's also FED minutes next week. I would be more comfortable holding short if no FED minutes next week.

  • Reply to

    THINK ABOUT THIS

    by billythart Feb 13, 2015 6:52 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    One reason is to lower the expectation of his shareholders or whoever will hold him accountable for the business. If he gave the range 6 month ago before oil tanked, I'm sure his range would have been 90-110 or 80 - 110 for 2014 Q4 and 2015 Q1. Things change and no one call tell. Nobody knows and all are guessing I guess.

  • Reply to

    MAKES ME WONDER ABOUT OIL

    by billythart Feb 13, 2015 5:51 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 7:08 AM Flag

    billy, I think it may start to go up well before the worst in storage is over. When big money sees recovery in sight say 3 - 6 months out, money may start flowing in, before the worst moment or before the worst is over in storage, just like it's rallying on news of under-performing rigs coming offline while storage keeps going up.
    I enjoy reading your posts. You are like a scholar focusing on the fundamentals, but if I may say, I think there's alpha such as sentiment or anticipation that matters as much. I'm also waiting for oil and NG to come back down again, but I'm not that patient and my planned entry or addition is much higher than yours. Good luck trading.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 2/12/15

    by goodoptday Feb 12, 2015 4:47 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 6:38 AM Flag

    nef, don't beat yourself up. What's done is done. I think everyone has up and downs. If you recovered from 60% down to 20% down. That's good and maybe it's time to be less aggressive and protect what you have.
    Selling many OTM calls or puts for which you don't have fund to get assigned is not a very good idea IMHO.
    I have to be less aggressive myself, and take some off the table when things are going well. Good Luck Trading

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 12, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    Sold 10 VXX next week ITM calls on MON
    Sold 10 VXX next week ITM calls on TUE

    VIX finally going down, and future contango over 7%. Hope steam comes off of VXX soon.

    Closed 1500 PNRA shares short.

    Sold 1 set of USO next week ATM calls against USO shares.

    Need both USO and UNG to come back down to add.

    Account getting better.

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