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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

goodoptday 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 16, 2014 10:50 AM Member since: Feb 21, 2012
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  • goodoptday by goodoptday Aug 16, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    Been a frustrating week not because I lost but because tradings didn't work out.

    Treid to short KMI, KSS, RL, MNST on pop, but lost chances and couldn't act at the right time for all of them. Had difficulties rolling but managed to roll some OK. TSLA and LNKD are flying but afraid to touch them. May try selling LEAP calls if my account condition gets better.

    Closed all 55 SLB deep in the money puts long at the low Friday, lucky. May go down further but had enough with rolling this oil stock puts each week for so long, and don't see much further downside in oil stock even if Ukraine tension rises.

    Sold HD LEAP calls on ATH.

    Account ATH on THU by a bit, half way to 8th milestone end of the week. Would have been nice if I had closed most of markets shorts last week and earned both ways from market shorts and VXX shorts on rebound, but I guess that's just wishful thinking. Glad that my account is up a little bit while S&P rebounded 45 points from last week's low. As VXX approaches recent low and most of VXX calls sold became OTM, I doubt that it continue to provide the same level of hedge for my market shorts.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Aug 9, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    Kept adding to VXX short this week, increased short by more than 50% from last week but VXX short is still just about 15% of account market value due to increase in market short. Chose VXX share short rather than call sale this week. VXX share short increased to more than 3 times core VXX short shares and hoping to keep all of them as new core VXX short from now on.

    Played UNG volatility again before inventory report but didn't work out this week, as it went up and down instead of going in one direction. Would be good if UNG goes up Monday morning.

    Closed remaining WAG share shorts upon dive. Would have been great if I could keep all WAG shorts. But I lost major part of WAG shorts due to lack of funds in June.

    Closed newly added UAL share shorts. Closed EXPE calls sold at nice gain, FB & WDC calls sold at a bit of gain to make fund for weekly rolling.

    Market shorts increased while trying to roll CAT shares assigned, missed good chances to roll and acted at wrong time.

    Friday was a disappointment after seeing S&P down more than 10 point, VIX futures up more than $1 Thu late night.

    Account some minus compared to last week, but increased VXX shorts are helping offset market rebound. Upside risk is not much with large amount of VXX short compared to two months ago when I was VXX nuetral or a bit long. This week wasn't very good but not too bad either. Hoping that I don't go under 6th milestone this time. I need Monday down to roll assigned shares. Otherwise, it would be very hectic Monday.
    Wishing for market going sideways for some time so I can trim shorts while VXX keeps losing strength... just wishing...

  • Reply to

    VXX 8/1/2014

    by goodoptday Aug 1, 2014 5:27 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Aug 2, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    Problems with my trading:
    - Account fluctuated a lot even within a month not shown in the rundown. Several times my total gain was cut in half.
    - Some of my shorts are more than a year old.
    - I've been paying quite a bit of dividends for short shares.
    - Gains from big bets contributed to about 5 out of 7, VXX, USO, UNG, and more so by hopefully CAT when I close.
    - And why on earth I keep shorting the market while S&P climbed from 1300 to almost 2000. I wonder how much I may have made if I've been a market buyer rather than seller. But, I was afraid of buying at 1300 and much more so at 1900.

    Good Luck Trading! I need good luck..... lots of it.....

  • Reply to

    VXX 8/1/2014

    by goodoptday Aug 1, 2014 5:27 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Aug 2, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    I'm not sure why account size matters. it will be proportional regardless of what the account size is. Each of my milestone is 25% gain of total capital I put in since Oct 2011 (NOT 25% of current balance). Honestly, I cannot believe current size of my account myself, it's been a unbelievable year but at the same time very much painful and stressful. I kept thinking I'm exhausting my body/mind and time to make money, while it should be the other way around.

    As for VXX, I have almost 7 times more market shorts than VXX short (in market value) excluding CORN/DGAZ. VXX short is about 13% of total account market value. My fear at this moment is not market plunging (just a tiny bit) but market turning right back up before I sell more VXX or I close half of my market short.

    I am a risk taker, aggressive sometimes, and use leverages not to lose short position when it goes against me. My belief is that if my position survives I can make profit or at least close to break even. My problem past year has been not selling enough VXX, hesitating too much before selling VXX while not much while selling market. I don't think my trading style is sound but at least it worked for me so far. Others should be totally different story. I tried to be conservative selling OTM calls rather than shorting shares this year but it still got me in trouble June & July.

    Rundown of my gain in terms of milestones (started with smaller fund and full fund in by Q3 of 2012)
    10/2011: 0
    2/2012: 0.25
    4/2012: 0.5
    6/2012: 0.75
    7/2012: 1
    Somewhere here must have gone back to negative
    10/2012: 0.5
    11/2012: 2
    12/2012: 1
    4/2013: negative (-0.5 or 0.75)
    Started VXX short
    6/2013: started daily trade journal
    8/2013: 1
    10/2013: 2
    11/2013: 3
    1/2014: 1.5
    3/2014: 4
    4/2014: 5
    5/2014: 6
    6/2014: 4 or even 3.5
    7/2014: 7

    I plan to take a break when I reach 10th milestone.

  • Reply to

    VXX 8/1/2014

    by goodoptday Aug 1, 2014 5:27 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Aug 1, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Keeping record:

    Added to UAL short and sold FB calls, middle of the week.
    Sold Z Jan 2016 highest OTM $220 calls at $17.90 on TRLA merger pop. Earning coming up but couldn't resist.
    Closed all 70 XOM deep ITM puts long.
    Sold EXPE Aug calls up earnings pop.

    Wishing for just one more good down day to lighten... Guess I'm getting greedy again...

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Aug 1, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    Been selling VXX shares and calls yesterday and today.
    More than doubled VXX share short, and sold different month calls as VXX climbed.
    Still need to sell more to cover heavy market short. VXX 30% bounce from last low is $35, 50% bounce is $40.
    I can entertain up to VXX $40 with maket shorts.

    SVXY calls that I sold and rolled for two months finally expired worthless today.
    VXX deep ITM puts sold & rolled for about the same time closed today.
    Hope I don't sell SVXY calls or VXX puts again...

    Had volatility play for UNG before invetory report and closed same day, and still holding DGAZ short.

    Got started with CORN long, sold Aug ATM puts yesterday and the next day it sinks. Waiting to come down more.

    Account big plus this week, ATH, and passed 7th milestone yesterday. Past 2 months have been very painful but I got rewarded this week. More than 2 months of pain and just 1 week of joy.

    It often comes to my mind, if one has enough money, one can recover and make gain most of the time unless all of the money stuck in one stock which keeps on going wrong direction for a long time.
    This also means, putting aside greed, starting position with less portion of fund and slowing increasing may also help avoid trouble. But easier said than done.

    Want to relax over the weekend........

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 25, 2014 8:13 PM Flag

    Nothing much for the past two weeks.

    Small # of SVXY ATM calls sold expired today. The same with FAS OTM calls sold.

    All UNG shorts closed. It was large gain but less than what I thought, still a bit better than USO last time.

    Entered into DGAZ/BOIL pair trading to benefit from decay but BOIL short was called, right after I covered BOIL it started to sink. So, now left with DGAZ short. Things don't work out the way I planned. A couple of days later, still thinking about what to do. I hate symbols without any shares to short.

    CAT earning was good, SLB/UAL/DPZ so so, FB/DECK got hit but luckly less shares here.
    A couple of more earnings to go through.

    Amazing moves: Z, BIDU, UA

    I follow SPY and didn't even know market made new high. I remembered SPY well over 199 but I realized it was before SPY ex-dividend.

    VXX is showing some strength while market is climbing. So, a little bit of hope for dip but then FOMC meeting is scheduled next week, and jobs data later. Market just can't dip anymore.

    Account not bad but not too good either considering events coming up.

  • Reply to

    JUST A FACT

    by billythart Jul 22, 2014 5:55 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jul 22, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    I don't know much about who/how gas that gets into storage is paid. But, I've been thinking whether producers have to keep on producing because they hedged so much when price was good for say, June, July, Aug, Sep, etc., contracts back in winter and spring. If this is the case, falling NG price may not hurt them so much as one may think, in short term, or even for longer term as NG price stayed high for a long time maybe giving enough time for them to hedge. Analysis of future open interests before expiration and for coming month futures may give some clue? Just a thought.

  • Reply to

    UVXY Maintenance Requirements

    by goodoptday Jul 19, 2014 11:46 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jul 19, 2014 9:04 PM Flag

    Thanks bustin for all the information,
    Looks like I have to talk to account manager in my broker and consider switching if it doesn't work out...

  • bustin, what broker are you using? and does your broker still use 2/3 of market value for UVXY maintenance requirement?
    I wasn't mistaken before when I said my broker uses 100% of market value for UVXY maintenance requirement while UVXY is 2x. My broker TD put 30K maintenance requirement for 30K market value of UVXY.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX June&July/2014

    by goodoptday Jul 10, 2014 9:56 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jul 18, 2014 7:05 AM Flag

    Thanks lf,
    Yes, it did, just one more lucky day like today will take my account back to all time high, but doesn't look like I will get another one soon. Each and every dip was bought so aggressively and any negative news ignored for past several months. I simply cannot comprehend this market and participants. I was very lucky with SNDK earning and closed them all. Several more earnings to go through for large short positions.

    I closed last remaining July UNG puts long yesterday after the report, with only dying July/Aug calls sold left in my account now.
    22K shares short and 200 deep ITM puts long closed between 22.8 - 22.5, and 200 July puts long closed at 21.90. I was dreaming of UNG $20 or $18 when I bought July puts several months ago but I couldn't wait one or two more weeks even in this cool summer weather after I waited for more than 5 months.
    It was a tough ride but I was lucky and it saved my account. If my fund was not tied to UNG short, I would have shorted market more and had greater pain. I also feel that I'm getting older faster with all the stresses from trading.

    I was VXX neutral and I started shorting VXX again on 10% spike, just started with LEAP calls and Aug-end ATM calls sale. I know it's too early, especially based on VIX level. But, I am carrying too much market short and I have to sell every spike if it ever comes, and VXX spike is so scarce these days.

    I'm looking at CORN long these days, but I'm not much familiar with CORN, so just looking for now. Good Luck Trading.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 10, 2014 9:56 PM Flag

    Been a while and quite busy, got a new project with aggressive schedule for which I had to learn new things, and mother-in-law and nephew are visiting, took them to Niagara Falls and NYC. Need to take them to a couple of more places.

    Account quite messy with S&P climbing for 3 months with not much of dip, just one or two days dip here and there and recovering in a couple of days if not next day. It's been difficult and stressful 2 months in many ways.

    Only bright spot is UNG now and started liquidating UNG from today 5 month after starting UNG short. I would have held onto it longer if my account is in better condition, but as it stands I cannot handle big UNG bounce if it happens. June puts long I bought long time back were closed at break even on expiration. Never thought it would take this long for UNG to come back down.

    Still very heavy on market short and don't feel comfortable about it, yet can't think of closing short at this sky high level, maybe the market wants to hit S&P 2000, hence liquidating UNG slowly to prepare for seeing S&P 2000 worst case.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 8, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    billythart,
    "NG usually extends beyond expected resistance and support levels on a regular basis."
    I am counting on this behavior of NG and waiting for overshooting of NG before closing my position but not sure how much longer I can wait given that I am holding more than I would like.

    I started shorting UNG 1/31, thought an easy short when UNG plunged to 22.5 after hitting new high back in Feb. Amazing that UNG still didn't hit that low for 5 months since then. I kept adding to UNG short on each and every bounce and my UNG short grew to 4-5 times in 5 month. I'm short UNG shares, ITM calls, OTM calls, and long deep ITM puts, long ITM/near-the-money/OTM July puts. I stick to UNG and not DGAZ so no erosion and probably that made me help survive this long. Though I had to lose some whiling rolling puts long and rolling share short to call short when no short shares were available after call shorts were assigned, I made some gain along the way by selling OTM calls, and occasional covering low and selling higher.

    I never thought June $25 put would expire worthless. My June puts long did just break even luckily, and I'm testing my luck with July puts.

    I am very thankful that UNG didn't overshoot above $28. Otherwise, I would have lost a lot and couldn't keep my UNG shorts.

    I enjoyed reading your posting as a fellow short, and will be reading yours for different point of view. We all can make money short or long with UNG, no matter how painful the process may be. But, I do hope that I can get out of short soon before UNG changes direction. I'm considering buying ATM calls to protect from direction change, will pay some insurance and see whether I can ride further down. UNG has been a bright spot recently in otherwise messy account of mine. Good luck trading from a guy holding UNG short close to 6 month now, oh my goodness, surely things don't go the way I wanted.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 11, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    The market never stops amazing me. It is acting like it's going to see S&P 2000 by the time FED meeting is over next week.

    Holding onto all the positions, except that CAT/SLB puts are added and WAG puts were lost. UNG is giving me a break.

    Have to make a difficult call if market keeps on climbing through next week. Will be good if it stays at current level.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 4, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    6/3/14: No trade

    6/4/14:
    Sold 10 VXX Jul-1st deep ITM puts against shares short.

    Closed Jun/Jul calls sold at enough gain:
    EA(5), OUTR(5)

    Shorted 500 APC shares.

    Closed 10 XOM deep ITM puts bought.

    Account some minus. Market still climbing steady. Have feeling that it will end this week at its high, given ECB easing and jobs report coming up.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 2, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    Bought 10 CAT weekly deep ITM puts.

    Sold 10 UNG Aug slightly ITM calls.

    Account big minus. Replaced 3 Windows and Patio Door last weekend. Very tired but my wife was impressed. Another 8 windows coming this week, and then 11 more later.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 30, 2014 4:29 PM Flag

    5 VXX calls sold expired worthless.
    Sold 5 SVXY Jun ATM calls.

    Bought 20 SLB next week deep ITM puts.
    Bought 10 WAG next week deep ITM puts.
    Sold 10 SNDK Jul slightly OTM calls.
    Closed 10 XOM next week puts bought.

    Rolled CVX puts bought to lower strike.

    Account good plus recovering yesterday's loss and more. Pulling the market up until Friday's close, how amazing. Anyway, account is plus and that's what is important.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 29, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Sold 10 VXX Jun deep ITM puts against core VXX share short.

    Closed 20 BNO Jun calls sold at a bit of gain. Exiting BNO short for now to use the fund else where. Large bid/ask spread is messing up with buying power. Hope it stays at this level whenI come back to it.

    Sold 5 UNG Jul slightly ITM calls to cover the cost of past rolling. Luckily, no UNG call assignments today.

    Account some minus. S&P went up 50 in 6 days. The market never gets tired of running up, just amazing.

  • Reply to

    VXX 5/27/14 & 5/28/14

    by goodoptday May 28, 2014 4:01 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 29, 2014 8:03 AM Flag

    bustin, it's dangerous to me because if those deep ITM puts are assigned, it will take away my core VXX shares short and I have to pay about $15 per current share as tax for the gain accumulated for about a year.

    My broker doesn't make a box position when options are assigned. Instead, it just takes away whatever shares there are if there are.I asked them whether I can request them to make a box position upon assignment and they say no.

    I will have to experiment later whether I can sell new shares on the same day after put assignment and give the new shares short to the put assignment by using LIFO.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 28, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    5/27/14:
    Closed 200 UNG shares short assigned from deep ITM calls sold.

    5/28/14
    Sold 10 VXX Jun deep ITM puts against core shares short. Playing a dangerous game, would lose core shares short if VXX goes down further and get assigned. Would prefer to sell SVXY but lacks fund.

    Closed calls sold at half of expiration gain to make funds available for rolling of UNG shares short assigned from calls sold.
    JWN(5x2), EL(5)

    Rolled 31 UNG calls assigned.

    Account big minus. Betting on a dip however small it may be, a couple of market shorts still weak and hope it stays that way for a couple of more days. Another firework coming tomorrow upon NG inventory report. Hoping for breathing room tomorrow both from market and UNG.

DECK
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