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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

goodoptday 108 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Feb 21, 2012
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  • Closed 1K HAS shares short.
    Closed 1K UTX shares short. Maybe a silly move closing market short ahead of rate hike that people say will happen. Closed to re-enter in case of bounce.

    Account so so. Account finally out of calls. Getting pressured by commodities carnage. Gold came down and want to own some physical gold but not much fund available for it. Maybe no need to hurry if FED is going to raise rate in Dec meeting.

  • Reply to

    Does UNG really track natural gas?

    by habib1103 Nov 29, 2015 4:02 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Nov 29, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    billy, the reason that "investing" site changes to next month a couple of days before the current month contract expires may be related to the fact that speculator future accounts (not sure about institutions but at least retails) who are not going to (and cannot) take physical delivery for long position (or deliver physical for short position) are required to exit their position a couple of days before the current month contract expiration. Hence, as current month future expiration nears (just a couple of days left) speculator accounts already moved to the next month future. Either way, both are under trading and they choose the month they want to show.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Nov 27, 2015 10:24 PM Flag

    Not much this week again. Just added some to market shorts.

    Bought UNG shares 1 unit.
    Sold 4 KOLD Dec deep ITM calls.
    Sold 4 SCO Next Week slightly ITM calls. Would have made decent money for several weeks if I sold near-the-money or slightly ITM calls instead of selling deep ITM calls.

    Account some minus this week. Been waiting for 10 bucks for the 2nd batch of VXX short during the last spike, but may have to settle at much less. VXX keeps on bouncing off when I am getting ready to close some. Just 1 month left in 2015, hoping for a better year end this time.

  • Reply to

    Natl temps to tank

    by andrew.marchese Nov 26, 2015 6:12 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Nov 27, 2015 7:49 PM Flag

    konn, my account also peaked mid-Oct, and end of May before that. I am not in the best condition now but confident that I will see another peak in the not too distant future. I believe the same goes to yours. I guess your account fluctuates much less than mine given your strategy.

    Many traders including myself all make those mistakes once in a while, we can call it greed or pursuit of maximum return. If I defer taking profit and wait to maximize profit and let winner run as people say, it suddenly reverses and take away the profit. Then, I try to be safer than sorry and take profit for the winner, then it keeps running. Then I wonder and go back and forth. Guess consistent strategy is important, and with it easier to deal with the stress. We can never make a perfect trade, always have to leave some on the table. It's been so long but still I'm not getting used to it.

    I also hope we see some relief rally soon in NG if not both oil & NG. Nice and peaceful weekend. Brian

  • goodoptday goodoptday Nov 27, 2015 12:00 AM Flag

    The guy who bought 70% of KBIO announced this afternoon he would stop lending his shares out. Lesson to market short sellers including myself. Remains to be seen what's going to happen tomorrow. Hope no one on this board is caught KBIO short.

  • Reply to


    by billythart Nov 23, 2015 5:00 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Nov 23, 2015 11:47 PM Flag

    Saudi is also bleeding at current oil price with record budget deficit and public debt level. Their tone seems to have changed recently. Just hoping that I don't see oil sink 10% like last winter after the meeting. Sitting on USO for longer term. Playing with SCO short for short term while waiting. SCO short using call sales is pain. JNUG/JDST short goes back and forth, but oil and NG shoots too much in one direction.

    Back in 2013, USO hit low around Thanksgiving, and then again in the middle of Jan, I missed chance to close USO short on Thanksgiving week, and had to wait more than a month - closed on a lift while snowboarding. In 2012, USO hit low end of Oct till beginning of Dec, and then again March & April. Waiting for some relief on oil & NG coming weeks.

  • Reply to


    by billythart Nov 23, 2015 6:49 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Nov 23, 2015 11:23 PM Flag

    From what I was told and seems to be correct in longer term, 30Y rate falls on rate hike (because of fear of recession due to rate hike, and lower inflation expectation) and rises on QE due to higher inflation expectation. That is longer term. Told 30Y rates are far more difficult to predict in short term based on rate hike/drop or inflation, etc. Based on what I learned, Long 30Y T bond as hedge for VXX short for about half a year now. Pays nice dividend given the leverage for T bond. I'm hoping to see that 2.25% low again on 30Y. Some even talk about sub 2% 30Y rate before another QE, May come true if FED does hike and economy sink.

    I highly doubt multiple rate hikes in current economic, geopolitical, high dollar environment & also on election year. Only the unemployment rate seems to justify rate hike, and we know that unemployment rate does not reflect the real labor market with current labor participation rate so low, and other economic indicators not doing very well. I'm betting that even if FED hikes rate on Dec it would come with some goodies such as one and done, or anything that will soothe the market. Not sure whether sub-quarter percentage hike is on the table.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Nov 23, 2015 10:55 PM Flag

    Last Week:
    Bought UNG shares 2 sets.

    10 VXX calls sold expired worthless.
    2 JNUG calls sold expired worthless.

    Rolled KOLD Nov deep ITM calls sold to Dec deeper ITM calls.

    Moved around losing positions between accounts to reduce tax on the gain.

    Got 2nd-half interest payments for 2/3 of 30Y bonds, about 7K, not bad a payment while waiting.

    Quite frustrating rolling SCO deep ITM puts. Time value is too high even for deep ITM puts. Juggling between accounts trying to keep all positions, market shorts, SCO short, KOLD short, etc.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 11/16/15

    by goodoptday Nov 17, 2015 9:24 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Nov 17, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    zach, don't you think that I have too much capital for trading and worry too much about ridiculous income tax to be considered as a boiler room resident? Be nice to other people who did no harm to you zach, not just this board but also in other boards. That's what normal people do in social life. Good day zach.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Nov 17, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    Last Week:
    Sold 20 JO Mar 2015 deep ITM puts.
    Sold 5 SCO Nov deep ITM calls.
    Closed 500 EXPE shares short.

    Bought 4 SCO Nov deep ITM puts.
    Sold 4 JNUG Nov deep ITM calls.
    4 JNUG calls sold expired worthless.

    Bought 8 SCO Nov deep ITM puts.

    Not much trading past couple of weeks due to traveling. Missed chances to add to UNG long, right or wrong.

    Account huge plus with VXX collapsing, oil up. Just about a month left to juggle positions to reduce profit for the year, been trying but not much done so far and frustrating.

  • Reply to

    VXX 11/9/15

    by goodoptday Nov 10, 2015 4:55 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Nov 15, 2015 4:55 AM Flag

    nef, Didn't even realize that my VXX short position will be affected by what happened in Paris until I read your post. What was I thinking. I will answer your question differently as I don't want to be called crazy. I got lazy and lost track of market shorts to VXX short ratio in my accounts. I am hoping it is about 4 to 1, if not it should be at least 2 to 1. I guess the news is a bit baked in AH Friday and digested over the weekend reducing the shock. Will close some market shorts if the market opens gap down tomorrow.

    Back to Lisbon for connecting flight, our shelter is just an ocean away now.

  • Reply to

    VXX 11/9/15

    by goodoptday Nov 10, 2015 4:55 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Nov 14, 2015 3:55 PM Flag

    lf, We are OK. Left Louvre around 7pm yesterday, had dinner and had to go back to hotel to finish Friday option roll before 10pm. All tourist sites were closed today, even most of shops and many restaurants were closed, Tourists could only see parks, Seine river banks/bridges, places you can watch outside like Eiffel tower, Notre Dame outside, etc., No lighting on the Eiffel Tower today, guess for mourning. Luckily, we finished all major sites Thu & Fri, so did not miss much but missed Picasso museum which was closed when I visited Paris several years ago, which is now open.
    We are leaving very early morning tomorrow, so staying in hotel at the airport tonight.

    I really liked Portugal country side in this trip, not expensive, food is good, people seem very nice, not like European big cities, sun, wind, beaches, cliffs, farms, etc. Feel like a good place for retirement.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Nov 10, 2015 4:55 AM Flag

    10 VXX calls sold expired worthless.
    10 VXX puts sold against short shares expired worthless.

    Shorted 100 BLK shares.

    2 JNUG calls sold expired worthless.

    Today account was in call (hate when this happens while travelling, had to trade at the dinner table in a beach front restaurant), so had to close some of market short lots in profit when the market was down.
    Closed 1K SBUX shares short.
    Closed 1K JNPR shares short.
    Closed 100 BLK shares short.
    Closed 1K DPZ shares short.

    Sold 2 JNUG weekly deep ITM calls. Mistake to short at this low but sometimes just can't help it.
    Sold 5 SCO weekly deep ITM calls.

    Closed part of UTX shorts with a bit of gain or near breakeven to avoid paying the dividend. Hope it goes up so I can refill the short.

    Account some minus. Driving around southern Portugal from Sat, Cabo Espichel to Sebutal, Evora, Lagos, Sagres, lots of beaches, cliffs, coves, farm landscape with oranges, olives, wineries, cork tree plantations, etc. Going to Paris on Thus, staying weekend there. Just wanted to visit Portugal but flights to Lisbon were kind of expensive, and flights to Lisbon, then Paris and back were much cheaper. Not sure what the logic is for airfare. Enjoying the sun, wind and the nature.

  • goodoptday goodoptday Nov 5, 2015 7:25 PM Flag

    Billy, so I had to sell calls at lower strikes (deep in the money) for JNUG/JDST (I do that for SCO, KOLD, TBT, etc. short too) I know you don't do options. Shorting leveraged ETF that way is not as easy as piece of cake, sometimes frustrating, but I think it's worth given the decays you mentioned. Recent 100% spike in VXX killed some of those UVXY shorters, the reason I short VXX instead of UVXY to avoid much of compounding likely in UVXY during VXX spikes.

  • goodoptday goodoptday Nov 5, 2015 6:47 PM Flag

    Billy, similar here, you play for days or several weeks with 3X, I play similar or longer term with 1X only reason being I hate decay while holding, some of my VXX short shares are more than 2 years old, which means I held them through several of 30% spikes and the recent 100% spike with market short as hedge. It may sound dumb and waste of capital to some but it worked for me so far. I cannot do U and D pair trade as Mike does on a daily basis, but I've been doing VXX short and market short pair, similar to U D pair but on a longer time scale. Trying to allocate some fund to day trade going forward and get myself into it with help from Mike. For longer term trade, Got some NG long, waiting for it to come back down to add, hope I didn't miss the boat. Also, looking at shorting JDST if gold drops further. I find JNUG short and JDST short pair interesting, a bit of JNUG short left now. Good luck trading.

  • goodoptday goodoptday Nov 5, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    Mike, Billy, What a difference a week makes. Was confident that there will be no rate hike this year thinking Yellen missed her best chance to raise rate earlier seeing some of indicators deteriorating. But, now everyone is talking about it. I thought everything is well seeing the market up. A week after without a computer, I find myself caught between VXX shorts and market shorts. I still doubt rate hike this year, but who cares what I think. May just have to keep adding market shorts against VXX short. Didn't even look up what Yellen exactly said but if she said hike no matter what, then she may have to do it but along with throwing some goodies to market to keep the market float. Mike, Will be off to other places for 10 more days. Good luck trading.

  • Reply to

    VXX 10/21/15

    by goodoptday Oct 21, 2015 5:19 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Nov 2, 2015 9:23 PM Flag

    UNG long, that's just 5% of UNG long position I plan to build, I will be glad if it comes down further so I can buy more cheaper, not even half way through building the position.
    VXX short 1K close, $9 gain per share from short at $28 is not good enough for you? Then what is? I have considerable amount of market shorts including UTX you mentioned but my account is still plus today, and that's how much VXX shorts I am still holding. My biggest worry now is not to realize too much profit to avoid paying 40+% effective tax rate on entire income, federal and state combined like last year, but I find it very difficult. So, I may have to sell very deep ITM puts against VXX share shorts instead of closing VXX short so I can lock in profit but defer tax for the profit to next year.
    UTX short, embarrassing one, confident I will get out breakeven, or at small profit which is good enough for a hedge position for VXX short.
    Just one more day trip left here tomorrow. Hopefully off to some other place after returning from here. Good night zach.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Nov 2, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    30 VXX calls sold during last spike expired worthless.

    2 JNUG calls sold expired worthless.
    4 SCO callso sold expired worthless.

    Rolled deep ITM calls sold and puts bought.

    Added UNG long 1 set, sold 10 KOLD calls, sold 10 SCO calls, earlier this week. But missed chances to add more at lower UNG/USO prices, and other market short opportunities, not being able to see the market due to day tours. Hope they come down again to add.

    My 6 year old notebook computer crashed and not booting up. So had to roll options Friday morning using cell phone. What a pain. Some mistakes but account seems to be in decent shape, not far from ATH.

    Been on Glapagos day tours, seeing unique animals here, beginners dive & snorkelings along with sea lions, rays, turtles, blow fishes, sea snake, small sharks, schools of tropical fishes in vivid colors. Very nice but our backs all burned after several snorkelings even under cloudy sky near equator. My wife was surprised at herself after completing beginners dive.

    Need to do some trading but not feeling like doing it.

  • Reply to

    VXX 10/23/15

    by goodoptday Oct 23, 2015 4:51 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Oct 27, 2015 9:43 PM Flag

    zach, didn't I tell you? so I bought more yesterday which was lower than today. I don't buy 50K shares in one shot. I buy in pieces as they go down when I feel price is low enouygh for long term hold. At 30% now. Nice weekend to zach from Miami on my way to Glapagos.

  • Reply to

    VXX 10/21/15

    by goodoptday Oct 21, 2015 5:19 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Oct 26, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    visit, It's just for my own good. Started about 2+ years ago, been doing much better ever since, maybe coincidence, maybe reviewing day's trades is helping, or maybe being public is helping me refrain from silly trades. Not saying I don't do silly trades now, but maybe much less. Things go well so I stick to what I've been doing.

48.94-1.17(-2.33%)Nov 30 4:02 PMEST