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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

goodoptday 75 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Feb 21, 2012
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  • No trading this week so far.

    Been looking at OUTR, DE to short but didn't get filled due to high order price. May nibble at GS upon more strength and also SPY if it goes up further. Just thinking about them, nothing happens until it happens.

    Not sure where my account stands now, as I've been skipping daily summary for several days, but shouldn't be bad.

    Couldn't follow the market for about a week except checking watch lists just a couple of times a day but nothing much happens to my account. just putting short orders at high price and seeing whether they get filled.

    Just a couple of more days left here. Visited more falls, black sand beaches, tip of glacier, glacier lagoon, lakes, basalt columns, driving through snow covered mountain pass, unpaved roads, fjords, milky hot spring bath and steam bath, mud pots, calderas. and taking hot bath at outside hot spring pool at near freezing temperature with Icelandic beers on the side around white mid-night. Really enjoying the nature this time with not much else to worry about.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 23, 2015 7:12 PM Flag

    Bought 10 EXPE Jun/1st deep ITM puts.

    Rolled TBT calls sold, EXPE puts bought, YUM puts bought.

    Visited falls and falls, glacier and glacier lagoon, enjoying the weekend.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 5/18/15

    by goodoptday May 19, 2015 1:00 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 21, 2015 8:55 PM Flag

    lf, I read a couple of articles on them before they started trading, but I still don't have clear picture of how they are implemented. Maybe I will have to do some more reading on them.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 21, 2015 8:52 PM Flag

    Yesterday:

    Bought 10 SKX June deep ITM puts.

    No trading today.

    Account so so yesterday, good plus today. VXX breaking down again.

    2nd day in Iceland, Sun shines even after 9PM. Still not dark at midnight. Visited Geyser and Falls.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 19, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    Finally Sold 1 NFLX Jan 2017 near-the-money call. Not sure this is a good thing, but it's done. Maybe worth trying if there's no stock split. Planning to add one for each $20 - $30 up if I have any fund for it.

    Closed 1 set of UNG Jan 2016 calls bought. No more UNG long position. Just UGAZ short shares left.

    Put in calls sale and put buying orders for SKX but not much chance to get filled due to high price I put in.

    Account so so. Wrapping up. Hoping for not much damage from tomorrow's FED minutes.

  • Reply to

    I GUESS SUPPLY/DEMAND CHANGED

    by billythart May 19, 2015 10:45 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 19, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    billy, no idea about the reason for the pop and drop this morning. I've been shorting UGAZ against small UNG calls long position, making it net neutral, then sold UNG calls on this morning's pop after market open. So, I'm short UGAZ now, small position. UGAZ may go higher from here but confident that it will give me chance to close the short at lower price, unless NG climbs higher without any meaningful dip. If it does, will be missing the boat.

    Still holding all USO long, but shorted small amount of UWTI against USO long to hedge a bit.

    Got lucky with VXX hitting ATLs now below $20 my wish price. Good Luck Trading.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 5/18/15

    by goodoptday May 19, 2015 1:00 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 19, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    jsp, I am hoping that I don't have to exit so I don't have to pay tax while I am able to utilize the gain. Trying hard to achieve that, by shorting market while VXX is going down, closing market short when market goes down and VXX goes up, and repeat.

    My biggest fear is being asked to cover the short due to lack of shares available for short. It rarely happens for VXX but it did happen once, broker asked me to close some VXX short shares, but it was during VXX spike so I was fine, closed short and sold deep ITM calls to maintain the same short. If this happens for all VXX short shares at the same time, I will end up with huge amount of tax bill for the year.

    Also I am afraid of any change in VIX products that may affect the behavior of VXX or VIX futures contango, such as the ones that start trading today. Just want everything related to VXX exactly the way it is now. Good Luck Trading.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 5/18/15

    by goodoptday May 19, 2015 1:00 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 19, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    My last serious VXX short entries were done more than 3 months ago, last small short term VXX short trading was about 2 months back.

    I wouldn't add short at current VXX level, wouldn't close VXX short either since I don't know the bottom of VXX, top of market and also I want to defer tax on the gain as long as possible, hence, would rather add market shorts to hedge. Good Luck Trading.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 5/18/15

    by goodoptday May 19, 2015 1:00 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 19, 2015 8:39 AM Flag

    cashbar, I would say you got in at good price if this is your first entry, and you were patient as it took a lot of patience and waiting for me to see it go down below $20, cut in half from several months back. I've been adding market shorts little by little while waiting for VXX short to go down, to hedge against its spike back up. So, the longer the VXX does down, the better hedged I am.

    I'm a short the spike type VXX trader. Odds are stacked against longs, market go up, market stay side lines, market drift lower, market sink hard, only 1 of the 4 market moves listed will push VXX up, and there's 10% VIX futures contango, in fact more than that now. I do think the longer the move up the closer the correction or at least the dip. But, noticing total lack of reaction from market about Ukraine, middle east, and much weaker reaction to Greece possibility of default. Though unforeseen event may change all that quickly but that's how it looks now. Good Luck Trading.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 19, 2015 1:00 AM Flag

    Sold 5 SPY Dec near-the-money calls.

    Put in the same NFLX call sale order but with high ask price, didn't get filled. Not much confident with this and hence higher bid price. Wouldn't recommend to anyone. Just need some thrill once in a while.

    TBT is acting weird, weak on Fridays, much strong from Monday. Hoping for spike in 30Y rate so I can add 30Y bond long.

    Account some plus with VXX down, despite market shorts up.

    Going to Iceland after market close tomorrow, on personal contract work. Originally planned for June with my family, but requested to come now, will have to go back there with my family once summer starts for my son.

    Just explained how to close all the stock and option positions to my son. If anything happens to me while traveling, I want him to be able to close all, going all cash, Can't discuss these things with my wife as she panics. Didn't mind much about these before as I didn't have much, but now with much much larger fund and positions, getting worried when I have to travel alone. I am sure nothing is going to happen but I had to do it.

    Planning on educating him on the trading that I do during the summer, so he understands what I do, and can handle properly when something happens to me. But cannot really talk about the details, and worried as it is very tricky. Getting him too involved may drag him to this world and ruin his financials. Even if I tell him never go long on VXX but go short after spike, I'm sure he would think 30% gain in a couple of weeks by going long would be much sexier, as many do here, than boring short which gives 75% gain in 2 years or 50% in several month. Anyway, my task to work on.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 16, 2015 12:22 AM Flag

    5 CHL calls sold expired worthless.

    30 DPZ puts long exercised to shares short, market closed while trying to roll these.
    5 IBM calls sold assigned shares short.

    Bought 15 YUM next week deep ITM puts.

    Rolled TBT calls sold and EXPE puts bought to next week.

    Account not much change. Put in order to sell just one NFLX Jan 2017 near-the-money call at ask price, thinking good if filled, also good if not filled. It's more than $100 per contract, more than $10K for 1 call if expires worthless, my goodness. Didn't get filled. Will be like playing with fire.

    VIX spot to next month future went over $3, very nice.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 14, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    Shorted 3K UGAZ against UNG calls long. UNG calls long must be fully or over hedged now with UGAZ short.

    Bought 10 EXPE next week deep ITM puts long.

    Closed 1.25K URBN shares short. Wanted to take profit off the table before earnings next week.

    Price difference between spot VIX and next month future which will become front future once front future expires next week, approaching nice $3. If market does not sink, VXX will be under further pressure upon front future expiration. This is 3rd month if it happens that way and not sure how long this can go on.

    Account a little bit minus.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 13, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    Bought 150 Treasury 30Y bonds with 4.375% coupon, 2041. 30Y rate may go higher tomorrow, but it came back up to value after hours today which I missed yesterday pre-market. So, took the chance.

    Hoping for OUTR to come up to ATH, or better to $80, to start shorting.

    Not much trading to do. Various items that I follow are not high enough to short, not low enough to cover.

    Hoping for UNG strength before tomorrow's report and then down, just hoping.

    Account a little bit plus.

  • Reply to

    Bought some 30Y treasuries this morning...

    by merenkov May 12, 2015 11:31 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 13, 2015 9:04 PM Flag

    merenkov, some more questions, sorry to bother you with so many.

    - I am moving on to lower coupon bonds as I add, first 4.75% coupon, then 4.375% coupon, then lower so on. Wondering whether you can share how you add or which ones you prefer and why.

    - Do you buy bond from broker or from auction?

    - Seems my broker does not allow short selling of bonds, what are the ways to short bond? I am not planning it but just wanted to know.

    I've been following your posting here for several months now ever since I started learning about rates, and been reading reports in Hoisington after you mentioned their Q4 report. Been wondering how this racing to QEs by many countries would end this time. Do you know how US got out of over-indebted situation before other than WW2?

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 13, 2015 7:55 AM Flag

    Missed chance to add 30Y bond in pre-market, thought rate would go higher after market open but started sinking.

    Shorted 3K UGAZ shares against UNG calls long.

    OUTR strong despite market weakness.

    VIX front future expiration in a week. Need spot VIX lower for VXX further down. Futures contango still good.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 5/8/15

    by goodoptday May 8, 2015 7:14 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 12, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    Shorted another set of UGAZ shares near today's high against UNG calls long position. I'm good either way, UGAZ up UNG call gain goes up or UGAZ down take UGAZ short profit.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 5/8/15

    by goodoptday May 8, 2015 7:14 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 12, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    Thanks king, Wish you well with your trading too.

    You should already know, but just keep in mind that I had and still have many losing trades. Some of them punched big holes in my account and I gave them up, like USO long & UAL short end of last year and beginning of this year.

    I have to admit that VXX short is the main reason that my account is doing well. But it's going to work only until it doesn't, just like housing boom not so long ago. I can keep on shorting market because I have VXX shorts. Sometimes I can short VXX aggressively because I have market shorts. I've learned to hedge my positions with VXX (and learning with gold and bond), when I was naive, wondered how one can make money with hedged positions. VXX is truly a gift if one can manage risk with it, and patiently wait for spike.

    It took me so long to be able to ignore what others are saying, such as some analyst predicting NG $6, WTI $20 or someone buying $3M worth of USO puts, etc., and to be able to make my own decisions.

    Again, Good Luck with Your Trading and mine too!

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 5/8/15

    by goodoptday May 8, 2015 7:14 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday May 11, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    zach, No where in my 2 years of trade journal posting, I pretended to know where the NG or any other stock is going, because I believe that nobody knows where it's going. If I believed NG is going to $10 at that time, then I must have shorted NG instead of selling UNG puts and buying UNG calls to go long.

    I was simply saying that I'm scaling in to UNG long with UNG going down even to $10 in mind.

    Anyone following my posting would know that I scale in to long position as it goes down, I scale in to short position as it goes up. I do that way simply because I don't know where it's going and where the top and bottom are.

    zach, I make it clear one more time, unlike you who knows where stock is headed every day, I do not pretend to know where any stock is going. I believe I am at the mercy of the market, just take what the market gives me and the market has been very kind to me overall. Hence, all I say is I hope. All I do is buy when I feel the price is low, short when I feel price is high, close when I feel the gain is good, and buy/short more when I feel the price is lower/higher. I always assume those positions may go against me, hence I scale in, and I don't go all in at once or to any one stock, never.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 8, 2015 7:14 PM Flag

    Closed 1 set of UNG Jan 2016 puts sold. Wanted to hold on to this for longer term, but keep feeling that NG is still bearish. Still holding UNG calls long in case it keeps going up.

    Bought 15 SKX June deep ITM puts.
    Bought 15 EXPE next week deep ITM puts.

    10 TBT calls sold expired worthless.
    5 AKAM calls sold assigned shares short. This was OTM until yesterday but became ITM today. Will close if it dips next week below the strike price.

    OUTR coming up nice after earning. Waiting for it to come up further to short.

    Account recovered yesterday's loss.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday May 6, 2015 9:54 PM Flag

    Shorted 5K UWTI shares against USO long shares.
    Closed 1.5K FSLR shares short.

    Bought 200 Treasury 30Y bonds with 4.75% coupon. Started buying 30Y bonds instead of shorting TBT. It looked small when first bought 80 of them. Looks too much after adding 120 more. Still learning. To add about every 0.1% rate rise, possibly with lower coupon on each addition.

    Still debating what to do with UNG long. Whether to close put short side only, whether to short more UGAZ. Hoping for one more pop, then either hedge more or close some.

    Account some minus.

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