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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

goodoptday 98 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Feb 21, 2012
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  • Closed 1K TBT shares short.
    Closed 1K EXPE shares short.
    Closed 3K UGAZ shares short.

    Bought 750 GASL shares. Would be more comfortable shorting inverse of oil producers but didn't find good one to short. Maybe not a good idea to buy this ahead of Iran deal deadline, so just a small amount.

    Account some minus due to USO. Closed a bit of shares short but not as much as I wanted. Seems market is not going to go down easy. Unbelievable how it comes back up again and again. Getting tired.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 7/2/15

    by goodoptday Jul 2, 2015 5:22 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jul 3, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Thanks jsp. I didn't know FED minutes are due next week. That may also help keep the volatility elevated for coming week. VIX future expiration is in less than 2 weeks. Hope VIX subsides by then.

    Earnings are also coming up, and I need to reduce market shorts at least some of them before entering earnings to reduce risk. Later part of Q2 was peaceful but so boring. At least for now, I prefer some move down and then recovery later. Like down move as long as it's not a crash. Good Luck Trading!

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 2, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    Bought 10 DE next week deep ITM puts.
    Bought 10 SKX July deep ITM puts.

    10 SPY calls sold expired worthless.

    Was planning on closing some of the market shorts with good profit but missed chances. If closed, would have passed this year's target gain today based on closed positions (excluding open positions). Now it stands at target gain up to Dec 29, 2 more days left. Of course I have open positions that are under water and need to manage to close them at profit or break-even. For now, I will be facing Greek vote with all market shorts. Will be kicking if market jumps on Monday.

    Account big minus due to VXX strength while S&P remains flat.

    The way I feel about Greece is, if they vote No, market will tank giving me good opportunities to close market shorts. If they say Yes, market will most likely jump even though not much is resolved and may take even longer to resolve if they go through re-election after yes vote. Regardless of yes or no, it doesn't seem that there can be a quick resolution and turmoil may continue, causing elevated volatility for some time with market going up and down on different news.

    I would be much comfortable if I closed some market shorts today, but given those positions are may be less than just 10% of my market shorts it shouldn't matter much, but still frustrating.

  • Reply to

    VXX 7/1/15

    by goodoptday Jul 1, 2015 4:14 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jul 1, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    zach, I'm OK. I have plenty more VXX shares short. For oil, I though you said UWTI bottomed at 2.85. Iran deal if happens may send oil lower but I'm thinking panic is over. Wish me luck, and good luck trading to you too.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 1, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    Closed 1.1K VXX shares short.

    Closed 10K UWTI shares short, which I shorted as hedge to USO long.

    Bought 10 TBT next week deep ITM puts.

    Account not much change. Still waiting for nice down day, but seems unlikely.

  • Reply to

    VXX 6/30/15

    by goodoptday Jun 30, 2015 5:02 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jul 1, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Isn't it amazing how the market reacts to Greek default, miles apart from its reaction to the first Greek crisis several years ago. Can't say how much it would frustrate me seeing this market reaction if I held only the market shorts without VXX short. Just unbelievable.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 30, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    Shorted 1.1K VXX shares.

    Bought 10 DE next week deep ITM puts.

    Closed 1 AZO Jan 2016 now OTM calls sold.

    Account some plus. Hate this waiting game. Would be good if it sink hard and then bounce back towards week's end. With the fear in Greece with banks closed, guessing that it will be difficult for them to vote no if referendum happens. But, not much go the way I think.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 29, 2015 6:34 PM Flag

    Shorted 3.3K VXX shares in 2 lots. Note that I can short VXX aggressively because I have market shorts to hedge them somewhat. I don't recommend anyone to go long or short VXX at this point.

    Bought 15 DE weekly deep ITM puts.

    Closed 5 ASML Jan 2016 now OTM calls sold.
    Closed 5 MELI Jan 2017 now OTM calls sold. Closed only the calls sold which have limited downside.

    Account big minus, my market shorts were not down as much, disappointing.

    Wow, what a VXX spike, in a long time. Hoping for one more down day so I can close some more market shorts.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 6/26/15

    by goodoptday Jun 29, 2015 7:18 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 29, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    zach, language again. Aren't you having a good day today with UGAZ, SPXU and SQQQ? Wouldn't it be better if you embrace others with different views at least when your tradings are going so well?

    I'm OK today so far. Account not much change. Was hoping for more market down but not happening yet. Good day zach.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 29, 2015 7:18 AM Flag

    No trading.

    Was busy rolling puts long to next week after getting off the plane at 3PM
    and lost chances to add to DE, DPZ, TBT short. But taking comfort in that it would have been small amount anyway compared to what I am holding now.

    Account sizable minus due to some market shorts spike.

    -----
    In premarket now, volatility spike in a very long time. Finally, Greece rattles the market. But still, S&P future was down about 2% on open yesterday, now a bit over 1% down. Would they allow Greek event shake what they tried to protect for so long? Either way, seems we will have pretty volatile week leading up to referendum result, providing nice trade opportunities.

    My VXX short to market short ratio is about 1 to 6 excluding commodities & bond related items. So, my account should be OK on this spike unless the specific market shorts that I own don't go down as much as the market average. Hoping that TBT short/bond long would provide hedge to USO long but maybe not enough.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 25, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    No trading Tue & Wed.

    Sold 10 DE next week near-the-money calls to capture premium drop by ex-dividend.
    Bought 10 DE next week deep ITM puts.

    Should have added to OUTR, GS, NFLX, FB short Tue & Wed in hindsight. Couldn't look at the market mostly hiking and driving.

    Account suffered from market up on Tue but recovered with market weakness. Account going sideways at current level for a bit more than a month. Typically not a good sign.

    It's been 2 years since I started posting daily trade journal on this board, started on 6/24/13. I remember it was the day VXX was strong and I shorted a bunch, most of which I still hold. My VXX short held the longest is from 5/22/13. I enjoyed unbelievable gain during this 2 years and VXX short was a major contributor. I don't expect gains anywhere near that period going forward as I'm trying to lower the leverage and play safer even though I started adding deep ITM puts long again recently instead of shares short to lower cost requied, for market shorts.

    Seems VXX near ATL and Greece uncertainty is attracting folks into VXX long. Guess it all depends how the Greek show plays out. Most may be pessimistic about Greek deal, but I'm also open to the possibilities for a deal as many would want to keep this party going.

    Completed circling Iceland's ring road with RV, and spending a night near airport for return tomorrow. Sun went down behind clouds around 11:40 PM on north shore, pretty close to midnight sun. RV got stuck on the side of shoulder, Iceland farmer pulled it out with tractor and saved our day. Good memories and cool weather we will miss.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 23, 2015 4:19 AM Flag

    Friday
    10 DE calls sold expired worthless.
    Closed 5 IBM Jan 2016 calls sold.
    Closed 10 SPY July/1st ITM calls sold.
    Rolled all deep ITM calls long to next week/month.

    Today
    Sold back 10 SPY July/1st ITM calls.
    Bought 10 GS weekly deep ITM puts.

    Account some minus. In hindsight, should have waited some more time before adding to market shorts.

    Half of vacation passed already. Had hard time driving RV with manual transmission but it's OK now. All the rental cars including RV are manual here. Half way through Iceland's ring road. My wife and son getting tired of going through many waterfalls but were excited about Glacier, Glacier Lagoon, milky blue Nature Bath, Puffins, etc. Some more water falls, beach rocks, seals, craters, geyser, hot springs, and a lot of more driving left.

    Hope the market dips a bit by the time I get back.

  • Reply to

    GASL

    by goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 3:14 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 9:46 PM Flag

    Reverse split doesn't change the value of GASL holdings. Reverse split does not make ETF/ETN lose its value unlike what many believes. It is the other way around. Losing value forces reverse split. By the way, I do not recommend any one to buy anything including GASL.

  • Reply to

    VXX 6/18/15

    by goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 3:33 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    zach, looks like you are having a bad day. Don't get too angry often. Life is short, enjoy when you can. Wouldn't it be nice if you can make others to enjoy too? Take care zach.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Again, what a market. Is Greece is going to get a deal? Looks like it.

    Closed 550 VXX shares short. Will continue with it if fund is available.

    Bought 10 SBUX next week deep ITM puts.
    Bought 10 GS next week deep ITM puts.
    Bought 10 OUTR next week deep ITM puts.
    Bought 15 SKX July deep ITM puts.

    Sold 10 SPY weekly near-the-money calls to capture dividend. Not sure whether this will go well. Will see tomorrow. Converted 1K TBT shares short to next week deep ITM puts long to make fund for SPY call sale.
    May have to role it to a couple of weeks out. Not much premium left and looks like it's going to get assigned tonight if I don't roll then I have to pay dividend on assigned short shares.

    Account some minus with all markets shorts up. Betting that there is some kind of dip next week however small it may be, so added several market shorts in one day which I didn't do for a couple of months. If Greece deal happens, my account may plunge but hoping VXX short and USO long would provide some hedge.

    Monthly option expiration tomorrow. Another month gone. Makes me worried a bit as market was strong on many of monthly option expiration days. Hope something different this time but maybe it will be the same. I don't expect much.

    Leaving for airport soon. Hope nothing major happens during my vacation so I can enjoy without worrying about my account. It would be good if market dip some though.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    Missed chance to buy GASL back when it hit $2.5 pre-split and been watching GASL ever since. WTI is still high but GASL is back to low. UWTI is still OK but GASL back to low. So, it doesn't seem like 3x decay is the only reason for GASL's poor performance.

    Did oil and gas producer stocks really come down as much to justify GASL's current price?
    Just shows how much difference it makes depending on what you choose among similar products for longer term hold, USO, UWTI, GASL.

    Looked for inverse of GASL to short but couldn't find. Seems GASX was it but de-listed.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 17, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    Closed 500 AKAM shares short. Amount is small but best case scenario with call sales, calls sold assigned at higher short cost basis with call premiums collected, and then it came down far below the strike price of the calls sold.

    Shorted 3K UGAZ shares. Small entry while waiting for chances for UNG long.

    Waited to short GS and SBUX but my prices were too high. The same went with JDST short, my price was too high. Maybe I will get them if they come back up again tomorrow.

    Account not much change.

    VIX front month future expired today. If market goes up or stays flat lowering volatility, VXX will take a hit more than it deserves. If volatility goes up on the other hand, VXX may rise higher as it's holding 100% new front month now which rises faster than 2nd month. If front VIX futures trade at 19 - 20, VXX will be $23 to $24. If front VIX futures trade at 24 - 25, VXX will be around $30. Not that I recommend going long. Not sure what the best action for VXX is now.

  • Reply to

    The Fed Has Warned they will raise rates

    by retired765 Jun 16, 2015 1:10 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 17, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Don't they have to be able to make good money in the first place for them to have anything to save for interest?

    Compared to 10 years ago, tax up, property tax up a lot, fuel is down now but for how much longer, tuition up a lot, food up, health insurance up, wage not up much if up at all. I don't think students and average parents have a lot left to save. I hated QE just like you but for difference reason. But one's hope/emotion and the reality are two different things.

  • Reply to

    The Fed Has Warned they will raise rates

    by retired765 Jun 16, 2015 1:10 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 17, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    prevent the economy from overheating?

    I understand you are desperately waiting for rates to go up but that above statement doesn't seem to be an assessment anywhere near reality. Many office buildings are still half empty. Many college graduates are having difficulties to get decent jobs. If economy is so good like shown by unemployment rate, wage should be going up nice. Unemployment rate is an illusion if you look at how it is calculated.

    No matter what FED does today, economy is just lukewarm at best if not still cold. Only the stock market is red hot now, so detached from the real economy.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 17, 2015 7:53 AM Flag

    Amazing market, -10 in before pre-market, more than +10 at close when EU high officials and Greece itself are talking about default. Have to wonder what the bulls are thinking while bears are focused on Greece default and rate hike. I'm kind of getting frustrated with this market move despite I'm heavily short VXX. What would I feel if I am shorting market without VXX.

    Guess is FED can't say much that may shake the market on this meeting given Greece situation no matter how much they want to raise the rate.

    Shorted 25 NFLX shares. Tiny amount to try mechanical trading.
    VXX missed next short target by 10 cents which frustrated me whole day for just a several hundred bucks of gain missed, which is less than a fraction of account loss today.

    Account some minus. I should have refrained from increasing positions ahead of trip. But, may be a good chance to short market some if market goes up after FED meeting or short JDST if gold goes down after FED meeting. Unfortunately, hardly anything moves the way I guessed.

DECK
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