2/25/14 No trade.
Closed 2.4K UNG share short, some of which assigned from deep ITM calls sold. Missed chance premarket but thankfully it came down again mid-day.
Closed 1 set of GMCR share short.
Very pleased with NG Mar future expiration action. 20+% backwardation shrank to 5% while both of them went down much. NG futures contango in sight. UNG may pop here but not much of risk unless wide backwardation happens again between Apr and May futures.
Account a little bit plus.
Hoping for one more UNG pop as it gets a bit colder, then I'll add to my short, UNG share short, July puts long, and then maybe DGAZ long.
It seems market just can't go down any more, keep pushing up even after-hours. Today's market action was disappointing. VXX is holding up so far but it's been some time now so I'm not sure how much longer. Good Luck Trading.
I am not a fan of leveraged ETFs, especially long, due to volatility decay. I think those are for folks who can time entry and exit very well, which I am not.
However, I was considering to get into DGAZ a bit if UNG shoots up higher, say close to $30, which may not happen now.
No VXX trade.
Shorted 2 sets of ATHN.
UNG down hard even with huge backwardation. What a surprise. I was worried about huge backwardation before Mar future expires. Feeling much better now. Even if Apr future goes up half-way to meet Mar future, UNG would be under $30. Will be adding to UNG short once Mar future expires.
Account a little bit plus. VXX is holding up well recently while market makes another ATH.
2/19 & 2/20 No trade.
Closed 6K VXX shares short.
Closed 10 Nov OTM calls sold.
Closed 10 Mar OTM calls sold.
6 VXX calls sold expired worthless.
5 VXX calls assigned.
VXX was unusually strong today. Is this because of nervousness at all time high or something's about to come? Decided to close all new VXX positions from last spike and lighten up on VXX short. Only holding VXX shorts from last summer.
Bought 100 UNG Jul OTM calls.
Rolled 10 UNG deep ITM calls sold.
Waiting for one more push up for UNG to add to share short and maybe to puts long farther out.
Account kept declining. Just a little bit down today.
I remember you trade VXX puts long. Would it be possible to share which month (how far out) & strike you chose to trade? Wanted to get some reference data before I start analyzing put long strategy.
Thanks in advance.
I think next 5 days could get nasty, given the huge backwardation between Mar and Apr contracts. If Apr comes up to meet Mar prices, UNG may shoot up.
If I had futures account, I would sell Mar contracts and buy Apri contracts, betting backwardation to shrink before Mar contracts expire.
In longer term, several weeks out, I am confident that UNG drop from current price. Producers would want to sell the futures if it stays elevated unless there's fundamental change in natural gas demend in non-winiter season.
But, who knows, UNG started going up towards end of Feb last year and until it hit high at the end of Apr. If it repeats itself this year, UNG has a long way to go before it makes its high.
Notes to others: Stay away from UNG short unless you have conviction and can deal with spikes. It doesn't mean that UNG long is any better.
Closed 1K VXX shares short after-hours. Lighten up just a bit before FED minutes release..
Shorted 1K UNG shares.
Account some minus with UNG up, market shorts up, VXX not down much. Felt warm today, it's been a long time.. Still snow all over the place.. Hope UNG stays up for a couple of more days..
Closed XIV shares long.
5 VXX calls sold assigned.
20 UNG calls sold expired worthless.
Rolled 20 UNG calls to deeper ITM calls, effectively adding to short. Failed to roll next higher strike calls sold. I guess I may have chance to sell higher.
Account some plus. To me, it seems another mass madness is coming after housing bubble, internet bubble, etc.
Too many times I'm a bit too early in hindsight. I never thought that the market will come straight back up exactly repeating many prior dip recoveries this past couple of years. A bit concerned with UNG rolling while backwardation is wider now, but I think things will work out for UNG short, looking at $30 top but I hope I don't need to see $30.
Closed 1K VXX shares short. Taking a bit of profit as it approaches the low.
Shorted 1.6K UNG shares after-hours. Actually, I put in order during market hour but it started to drop as soon as I put short order and didn't get executed. Why does this happen to me so often. Ugh.. But it came back up duirng after-hours and got executed. Hoping for one more pop tomorrow so my UNG calls sold are assigned for more short.
Account big minus with UNG up, market up, VXX not much down. It seems the market is going to go straight back to all time high. Almost there and it will just need one more day to get there. Truly amazing market and the bulls.
Shorted 1K UNG shares. I didn't sell enough but it collapsed. Have to wait for pop after inventory report if it ever happens.
Short Term Trading:
- CAT: Shorted 1 set.
- TRIP: Shorted 1 set.
Missed VXX short term trading, again not much faith in the rules.
Account some plus. VXX 3+% contango. VXX back to its business as usual.
Closed SVXY shares long. Just taking profit on some of VXX positions.
Short Term Trading:
- VXX: Closed shares short 1 set at 2.3%.
- KORS: Shorted 1 set.
- EXPE: Shorted 1 set.
- GMCR: Shorted 4 sets (1.5 set by mistake).
- ATHN: Shorted 3 sets.
- FFIV: Shorted 1 set.
- FB: Shorted 1 set.
Again bunch of positions open but no closure. Hoping for a small dip to close some of the positions or a big one is OK too. Market jumps 4 straight days about S&P 80 points. Doesn't it need some time to rest?
Account a bit plus, but just small portion compared to the morning since VXX stopped going down while market kept going up. Hoping for another big UNG spike due to cold weather and storm.
VXX is not coming down much today.
Closed 3.7K UNG shares short. Asked to cover due to short share unavailability. Didn't want to go through short cover and deep ITM call sale. So, just closed them.
Short Term Trading:
- VXX: Shorted 1 set
- ATHN: Shorted 3 sets
- FFIV: Shorted 1 set
- KORS: SHorted 1 set
- OUTR: Shorted 1 set
Having not much faith in the rules that I setup is the problem, missing good trades.
Spent much time to find the good rule and then hesitate to enter thinking the rule may not work this time.
Need to trade mechanically without thinking anything else other than the rules.
Opened all those positions but nothing closed, not very good.
Account some plus. Went back above 3rd milestone.
No VXX trade other than rolling deep ITM calls sold.
28 UNG ITM calls sold assigned before open. Those calls had some premium left, surprised someone exercised.
10 UNG calls sold expired worthless.
37 UNG calls sold assigned at close.
Short Term Trading:
Shorted 5 sets of ATHN shares. Closed 2.5 sets of ATHN share short at 2.5%
Shorted 1 set of FB shares.
Shorted 1 set of CAT shares.
Sold 1 set of OUTR deep ITM calls, no shares for short.
Short order for EXPE is not executed due to 3 cents.
Account good plus. VXX/UNG short helping a lot. UNG falling too fast, need to build more position. Getting back very close to 3rd milestone which I went under since Dec FED meeting. Hope it passes up and stays above this time. Will be relaxing and enjoying this weekend.
What a day with VXX. Finally, giving me some breathing room. Glad that backwardation between futures is gone (Hmm but re-appeared after-hours between front and second?).
Earnings that I was lucky to avoid short with: KORS 20+%, GMCR 40+%, ATHN 15+%.. Waiting for them to settle...
UNG's future backwardation decreasing. I guess front month will be under pressure until the rolling ends as other ETFs starts rolling. Interesting that these commodities ETFs don't do rolling spread across the entire month like VXX.
Account largest daily increase, unbelievable.
You're welcome lf. Good that you start with gain. I went in a bit early, I wish I was a bit late but I went in following my criteria, when it's about to hit 3 year top, so no regret. I didn't know UNG is this wild though, 8 - 10% up/down easy in a day. Today, 28.20 premarket high to 24.70 low.
For other folks glancing through my posting, I don't think this is necessary but just in case: please do your own DD. Many times I'm wrong and I'm too early, and it's painful when it happens.
Good Luck Trading!
Sold 6 VXX Feb ITM calls.
Shorted 1.4K UNG shares.
Sold 10 UNG Feb deep ITM calls.
Account some minus. VXX again pushed up right after market close. What a ride with UNG today, debating whether to close some UNG positions to lock-in profit or hold until Spring arrives.
Snowboarding until 7PM. Snow was soft and very good, sunny, not many people, no lines, enjoyed very much today..
My UNG short order was too high and it didn't happen because of 15 cents.
VXX again went higher after hours. It's like a pattern these days. My positions are all set, will have to see what market brings.
Shorted 2K UNG shares.
Sold 10 UNG next week OTM calls.
Finally, UNG shares are available for short in my broker. Need to move deep ITM calls to share short.
Hope UNG spike today through possibly Thur's inventory report is its last hurrah.
We've got good snow yesterday, it was wet snow, very difficult to shovel. Too much snow this year.
Taking afternoon off from job and trading, and going snowboarding now to enjoy fresh snow.
Account jumping up and down based on VXX movement. Has short order for UNG when it comes up much higher today.