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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

goodoptday 88 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 3, 2015 11:00 AM Member since: Feb 21, 2012
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  • Reply to

    VXX 6/30/15

    by goodoptday Jun 30, 2015 5:02 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jul 1, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    Isn't it amazing how the market reacts to Greek default, miles apart from its reaction to the first Greek crisis several years ago. Can't say how much it would frustrate me seeing this market reaction if I held only the market shorts without VXX short. Just unbelievable.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 30, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    Shorted 1.1K VXX shares.

    Bought 10 DE next week deep ITM puts.

    Closed 1 AZO Jan 2016 now OTM calls sold.

    Account some plus. Hate this waiting game. Would be good if it sink hard and then bounce back towards week's end. With the fear in Greece with banks closed, guessing that it will be difficult for them to vote no if referendum happens. But, not much go the way I think.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 29, 2015 6:34 PM Flag

    Shorted 3.3K VXX shares in 2 lots. Note that I can short VXX aggressively because I have market shorts to hedge them somewhat. I don't recommend anyone to go long or short VXX at this point.

    Bought 15 DE weekly deep ITM puts.

    Closed 5 ASML Jan 2016 now OTM calls sold.
    Closed 5 MELI Jan 2017 now OTM calls sold. Closed only the calls sold which have limited downside.

    Account big minus, my market shorts were not down as much, disappointing.

    Wow, what a VXX spike, in a long time. Hoping for one more down day so I can close some more market shorts.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 6/26/15

    by goodoptday Jun 29, 2015 7:18 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 29, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    zach, language again. Aren't you having a good day today with UGAZ, SPXU and SQQQ? Wouldn't it be better if you embrace others with different views at least when your tradings are going so well?

    I'm OK today so far. Account not much change. Was hoping for more market down but not happening yet. Good day zach.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 29, 2015 7:18 AM Flag

    No trading.

    Was busy rolling puts long to next week after getting off the plane at 3PM
    and lost chances to add to DE, DPZ, TBT short. But taking comfort in that it would have been small amount anyway compared to what I am holding now.

    Account sizable minus due to some market shorts spike.

    -----
    In premarket now, volatility spike in a very long time. Finally, Greece rattles the market. But still, S&P future was down about 2% on open yesterday, now a bit over 1% down. Would they allow Greek event shake what they tried to protect for so long? Either way, seems we will have pretty volatile week leading up to referendum result, providing nice trade opportunities.

    My VXX short to market short ratio is about 1 to 6 excluding commodities & bond related items. So, my account should be OK on this spike unless the specific market shorts that I own don't go down as much as the market average. Hoping that TBT short/bond long would provide hedge to USO long but maybe not enough.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 25, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    No trading Tue & Wed.

    Sold 10 DE next week near-the-money calls to capture premium drop by ex-dividend.
    Bought 10 DE next week deep ITM puts.

    Should have added to OUTR, GS, NFLX, FB short Tue & Wed in hindsight. Couldn't look at the market mostly hiking and driving.

    Account suffered from market up on Tue but recovered with market weakness. Account going sideways at current level for a bit more than a month. Typically not a good sign.

    It's been 2 years since I started posting daily trade journal on this board, started on 6/24/13. I remember it was the day VXX was strong and I shorted a bunch, most of which I still hold. My VXX short held the longest is from 5/22/13. I enjoyed unbelievable gain during this 2 years and VXX short was a major contributor. I don't expect gains anywhere near that period going forward as I'm trying to lower the leverage and play safer even though I started adding deep ITM puts long again recently instead of shares short to lower cost requied, for market shorts.

    Seems VXX near ATL and Greece uncertainty is attracting folks into VXX long. Guess it all depends how the Greek show plays out. Most may be pessimistic about Greek deal, but I'm also open to the possibilities for a deal as many would want to keep this party going.

    Completed circling Iceland's ring road with RV, and spending a night near airport for return tomorrow. Sun went down behind clouds around 11:40 PM on north shore, pretty close to midnight sun. RV got stuck on the side of shoulder, Iceland farmer pulled it out with tractor and saved our day. Good memories and cool weather we will miss.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 23, 2015 4:19 AM Flag

    Friday
    10 DE calls sold expired worthless.
    Closed 5 IBM Jan 2016 calls sold.
    Closed 10 SPY July/1st ITM calls sold.
    Rolled all deep ITM calls long to next week/month.

    Today
    Sold back 10 SPY July/1st ITM calls.
    Bought 10 GS weekly deep ITM puts.

    Account some minus. In hindsight, should have waited some more time before adding to market shorts.

    Half of vacation passed already. Had hard time driving RV with manual transmission but it's OK now. All the rental cars including RV are manual here. Half way through Iceland's ring road. My wife and son getting tired of going through many waterfalls but were excited about Glacier, Glacier Lagoon, milky blue Nature Bath, Puffins, etc. Some more water falls, beach rocks, seals, craters, geyser, hot springs, and a lot of more driving left.

    Hope the market dips a bit by the time I get back.

  • Reply to

    GASL

    by goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 3:14 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 9:46 PM Flag

    Reverse split doesn't change the value of GASL holdings. Reverse split does not make ETF/ETN lose its value unlike what many believes. It is the other way around. Losing value forces reverse split. By the way, I do not recommend any one to buy anything including GASL.

  • Reply to

    VXX 6/18/15

    by goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 3:33 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    zach, looks like you are having a bad day. Don't get too angry often. Life is short, enjoy when you can. Wouldn't it be nice if you can make others to enjoy too? Take care zach.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Again, what a market. Is Greece is going to get a deal? Looks like it.

    Closed 550 VXX shares short. Will continue with it if fund is available.

    Bought 10 SBUX next week deep ITM puts.
    Bought 10 GS next week deep ITM puts.
    Bought 10 OUTR next week deep ITM puts.
    Bought 15 SKX July deep ITM puts.

    Sold 10 SPY weekly near-the-money calls to capture dividend. Not sure whether this will go well. Will see tomorrow. Converted 1K TBT shares short to next week deep ITM puts long to make fund for SPY call sale.
    May have to role it to a couple of weeks out. Not much premium left and looks like it's going to get assigned tonight if I don't roll then I have to pay dividend on assigned short shares.

    Account some minus with all markets shorts up. Betting that there is some kind of dip next week however small it may be, so added several market shorts in one day which I didn't do for a couple of months. If Greece deal happens, my account may plunge but hoping VXX short and USO long would provide some hedge.

    Monthly option expiration tomorrow. Another month gone. Makes me worried a bit as market was strong on many of monthly option expiration days. Hope something different this time but maybe it will be the same. I don't expect much.

    Leaving for airport soon. Hope nothing major happens during my vacation so I can enjoy without worrying about my account. It would be good if market dip some though.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 18, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    Missed chance to buy GASL back when it hit $2.5 pre-split and been watching GASL ever since. WTI is still high but GASL is back to low. UWTI is still OK but GASL back to low. So, it doesn't seem like 3x decay is the only reason for GASL's poor performance.

    Did oil and gas producer stocks really come down as much to justify GASL's current price?
    Just shows how much difference it makes depending on what you choose among similar products for longer term hold, USO, UWTI, GASL.

    Looked for inverse of GASL to short but couldn't find. Seems GASX was it but de-listed.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 17, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    Closed 500 AKAM shares short. Amount is small but best case scenario with call sales, calls sold assigned at higher short cost basis with call premiums collected, and then it came down far below the strike price of the calls sold.

    Shorted 3K UGAZ shares. Small entry while waiting for chances for UNG long.

    Waited to short GS and SBUX but my prices were too high. The same went with JDST short, my price was too high. Maybe I will get them if they come back up again tomorrow.

    Account not much change.

    VIX front month future expired today. If market goes up or stays flat lowering volatility, VXX will take a hit more than it deserves. If volatility goes up on the other hand, VXX may rise higher as it's holding 100% new front month now which rises faster than 2nd month. If front VIX futures trade at 19 - 20, VXX will be $23 to $24. If front VIX futures trade at 24 - 25, VXX will be around $30. Not that I recommend going long. Not sure what the best action for VXX is now.

  • Reply to

    The Fed Has Warned they will raise rates

    by retired765 Jun 16, 2015 1:10 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 17, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Don't they have to be able to make good money in the first place for them to have anything to save for interest?

    Compared to 10 years ago, tax up, property tax up a lot, fuel is down now but for how much longer, tuition up a lot, food up, health insurance up, wage not up much if up at all. I don't think students and average parents have a lot left to save. I hated QE just like you but for difference reason. But one's hope/emotion and the reality are two different things.

  • Reply to

    The Fed Has Warned they will raise rates

    by retired765 Jun 16, 2015 1:10 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 17, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    prevent the economy from overheating?

    I understand you are desperately waiting for rates to go up but that above statement doesn't seem to be an assessment anywhere near reality. Many office buildings are still half empty. Many college graduates are having difficulties to get decent jobs. If economy is so good like shown by unemployment rate, wage should be going up nice. Unemployment rate is an illusion if you look at how it is calculated.

    No matter what FED does today, economy is just lukewarm at best if not still cold. Only the stock market is red hot now, so detached from the real economy.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 17, 2015 7:53 AM Flag

    Amazing market, -10 in before pre-market, more than +10 at close when EU high officials and Greece itself are talking about default. Have to wonder what the bulls are thinking while bears are focused on Greece default and rate hike. I'm kind of getting frustrated with this market move despite I'm heavily short VXX. What would I feel if I am shorting market without VXX.

    Guess is FED can't say much that may shake the market on this meeting given Greece situation no matter how much they want to raise the rate.

    Shorted 25 NFLX shares. Tiny amount to try mechanical trading.
    VXX missed next short target by 10 cents which frustrated me whole day for just a several hundred bucks of gain missed, which is less than a fraction of account loss today.

    Account some minus. I should have refrained from increasing positions ahead of trip. But, may be a good chance to short market some if market goes up after FED meeting or short JDST if gold goes down after FED meeting. Unfortunately, hardly anything moves the way I guessed.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 15, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    Shorted 550 VXX shares to try mechanical trading using this bounce with small amount.

    Sold 30 CORN Jan 2015 deep ITM puts
    and Bought 30 CORN Jan 2015 OTM calls.

    Account little bit minus. Seems VXX wants to go up given AH action, moving up independently from SPY. Been a while. Think chances are little that FED raise rate soon given Greece, bond, etc. Market reaction to Greece issue is tepid, maybe big guys know something, or market prepared for Greek default, or maybe this is how it all gets started slow/tepid in the beginning. Hoping for one more down day tomorrow and bounce after FED meeting.

  • goodoptday goodoptday Jun 13, 2015 12:59 AM Flag

    Generally speaking, I think VXX long is for those who can really time the entry and exit well. If one needs to wait something to happen while holding it, VXX long is not a good thing for that case since VXX decays each and every day it doesn't spike and also on front future expiration. Each and everyday that passes without meaningful VXX spike, its value will decay making future gain expectation smaller and smaller, much worse if market stays high up or creeps higher little by little. It maybe a different story if VIX and VIX futures are ultra-low as they somewhat set floor under VXX.

    If one expects market crash in a couple of months or several months, maybe better off just shorting market and wait until something materializes. At least market shorts won't decay while waiting. If really wants to play VXX long, VXX can be added at a later stage if market keeps climbing for better leverage.

    Surely VXX going up 30% in a couple of weeks is exciting not to mention 100%, but it comes at a price, return is high then risk is high too. That's generally speaking. Who knows, VXX may start shooting up from Monday setting a new record with market crash. Honestly I don't know. All one can do is to prepare for different possibilities or hope bad things don't happen to one's account.

    Regardless, the broker recommending to buy VXX around 20 saying it will hit $60 should be fired. Even if it does happen, that's no way to lead one's client.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jun 12, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    No trade yesterday and today. Waited for DE and GS to come up further to short from yesterday but missed chance.

    Rolled YUM, GS, EXPE deep ITM puts long to next week.
    Rolled VXX June puts sold to July/1st.

    Waiting for CORN to come down further.

    Glad 30Y rate came down. May come right backup Monday, noticed TBT weak towards week's end and then gain early the week after. Think built medium size 30Y bond position so far combined with TBT short.

    Account some plus yesterday, a bit minus today. Not much else to look at now, not too high, not too low. Maybe we will see some action next week after the FED meeting, either direction is fine with me as long as it's not too big.

    Decided to pay EIT only to state where penalty interest rate is higher, and to skip larger Federal EIT and pay penalty later at 3% annual rate, equivalent to borrowing the EIT amount at 3% which is decent.

  • Reply to

    Selling at a loss everyday

    by jeff241 Jun 11, 2015 2:40 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Jun 11, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Regardless of whether VXX is ATL or not, there will be short sellers of VXX if market is going to go up. If there are no VXX sellers and VIX future goes down causing VXX to remain above fair value, issuer of VXX will create new shares and sell them to the buyers.

    VIX futures, VXX, XIV, UVXY, SVXY, TVIX, all are interrelated and will affect each others pricing to keep all of them at fair value. Fair value in this post meaning correct value based on mathematical calculation based on 2 front VIX futures, not where VXX should be when market goes down by how much.

  • goodoptday goodoptday Jun 11, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    cashbar, I may look like a market bull heavily shorting VXX, but I've been a short seller all along since 2012, S&P was like 1400. I could make good money even in the consistently rising market when I time it right but bad timing would kill my account.

    Started shorting VXX to hedge from market rise while I hold huge market short position. I waited and waited for market crash with leveraged market shorts through end of OT, QE3, QE4, Greek issue, budget crisis, Syrian issue, Ukraine, Iran, Ebola, sell in May and go away to materialize, worst performing Oct, and what not, but never happened so far.

    In the end, decided to follow what seems to be happening. To me, FED's priority seems to be upholding market or asset prices. They've done poor job with economy but very good job with the market (judging just by price).. So I changed to short VXX, then add to the market short on market strength. VXX deteriorates by itself, occasional spikes are hedged by market shorts.

    Not saying current market level seems justified, but with FED determined to uphold the market, market crash may not come soon. Many were expecting market crash when the QE4 ends due to the fear of rate hike but that also didn't happen. I doubt whether FED can raise rates by *meaningful amount* this year, even if they do, betting that it will be tiny by tiny just as they did when winding down the last QE.

    I too think someday this all will end badly, but I do think they will do whatever they can to avoid it until they can't anymore, which I believe will take time.

    About VXX long, VXX goes down by 10% every month just due to contango during the month it doesn't spike. I expect 30% or 50% VXX spike from low when fear comes back to the market, but betting I won't see 100% or 200% VXX spike any time soon. Of course, if some thing catastrophic happens VXX will shoot up more than that, but still I am hoping that I won't get killed with the help of market shorts.

    But I'm often very wrong, Good Luck Trading

DECK
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