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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

goodoptday 75 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Feb 21, 2012
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  • Reply to

    THE DOW IS DOWN AND

    by billythart Feb 19, 2015 3:18 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 19, 2015 6:55 PM Flag

    Billy, VIX front month future expired this morning while there's considerable contango between spot VIX and front month VIX future, and also between front month VIX future and 2nd month VIX future. So, new front month future today had to come down, pressing VXX/UVXY/TVIX down. VIX follows S&P volatility.

    VXX wasn't down as much as I hoped on the front month future expiration today, maybe Greece is holding it up. Hoping for VXX collapse after Greek issue resolution.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 18, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    VXX still above support from end of Jan. Need VIX below 15 tomorrow.

    Sold 5 SBUX Mar-end ATM calls on TUE.

    Sold 10 DE Jun OTM calls to finance
    Buying 10 DE weekly OTM puts.
    Thought DE was not doing well.

    Closed 1 set of UNG Jan 2016 ITM calls long.
    Closed 1 set of UNG shares long.
    Hopefully, will be able to buy them back at lower price. This week and next week are cold, but seems that's the end of winter, as March temperatures are near average.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    Finally, VIX fell below 15, first time this year. With next month future high up at 18, I'm looking forward to VXX drop after VIX future expiration next week, barring surprise from Greece or FED minutes.

    Sold half a set of USO Feb/end OTM calls.

    1 set of USO calls sold expired worthless.
    1 set of UNG deep ITM calls long exercised to UNG shares.
    Half a set of UNG puts sold expired worthless.

    My finger is getting itch, wanting to short market such as EXPE, FD, AAPL, EL, AKAM, or NFLX, LNKD, FDX after they come back up to ATH, trying hard to wait until S&P makes a new ATH. AAPL went from 120 to 127 while waiting...

  • goodoptday goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    Good if you are expecting something going wrong with Greece on Monday. If not, front month future expires in a couple of days. Spot VIX is 15.33, front month 16.80, next month 18.40. After the expiration, if next month becomes front month, and then the new front month cannot stay high at 18.40 if spot VIX stays around 15.50.
    Unless something goes wrong with Greece on Monday, I'm betting that steam would come off of VXX around or after expiration. Hmm but there's also FED minutes next week. I would be more comfortable holding short if no FED minutes next week.

  • Reply to

    THINK ABOUT THIS

    by billythart Feb 13, 2015 6:52 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    One reason is to lower the expectation of his shareholders or whoever will hold him accountable for the business. If he gave the range 6 month ago before oil tanked, I'm sure his range would have been 90-110 or 80 - 110 for 2014 Q4 and 2015 Q1. Things change and no one call tell. Nobody knows and all are guessing I guess.

  • Reply to

    MAKES ME WONDER ABOUT OIL

    by billythart Feb 13, 2015 5:51 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 7:08 AM Flag

    billy, I think it may start to go up well before the worst in storage is over. When big money sees recovery in sight say 3 - 6 months out, money may start flowing in, before the worst moment or before the worst is over in storage, just like it's rallying on news of under-performing rigs coming offline while storage keeps going up.
    I enjoy reading your posts. You are like a scholar focusing on the fundamentals, but if I may say, I think there's alpha such as sentiment or anticipation that matters as much. I'm also waiting for oil and NG to come back down again, but I'm not that patient and my planned entry or addition is much higher than yours. Good luck trading.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 2/12/15

    by goodoptday Feb 12, 2015 4:47 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 13, 2015 6:38 AM Flag

    nef, don't beat yourself up. What's done is done. I think everyone has up and downs. If you recovered from 60% down to 20% down. That's good and maybe it's time to be less aggressive and protect what you have.
    Selling many OTM calls or puts for which you don't have fund to get assigned is not a very good idea IMHO.
    I have to be less aggressive myself, and take some off the table when things are going well. Good Luck Trading

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 12, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    Sold 10 VXX next week ITM calls on MON
    Sold 10 VXX next week ITM calls on TUE

    VIX finally going down, and future contango over 7%. Hope steam comes off of VXX soon.

    Closed 1500 PNRA shares short.

    Sold 1 set of USO next week ATM calls against USO shares.

    Need both USO and UNG to come back down to add.

    Account getting better.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 9, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    10 VXX calls sold expired worthless.
    10 VXX puts sold expired worthless.

    1 set of SCO calls sold expired worthless.
    1 set of JNUG calls sold expired worthless.

    2 sets of USO deep ITM calls taken away by USO calls sold against them assigned.
    USO staying strong now as I am waiting for it to come back down.

    Sold 1 set of UNG Jan 2016 ITM puts.
    Bought 1 set of UNG Jan 2016 ITM calls.

    Planning for snowboarding today when forecast was 3-5 inches of snow, but it wormed up and now changed to wintry mix and freezing rain, no snowboarding. No wonder NG is weak.

  • Reply to

    Non-VXX 2/4/15

    by goodoptday Feb 5, 2015 11:21 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 6, 2015 12:46 AM Flag

    Again, VXX stopped at 32.7 just 10 cents lower than yesterday. Often this is sign that there's strong support and subsequent rebound. S&P came back to the same place 3rd time in little over a month, just before jobs report tomorrow. Betting that S&P is going to push through the resistance this time. But the daily chart is too similar to previous cases at 2062.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 5, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    Sold half a set of UNG near-the-money puts yesterday. Afraid to sell more because of inventory report today.
    Still have no guts to add to UNG for meaningful size. Was hoping for big drop today after report to add but not much change.

    VXX is driving me crazy. Didn't close any on yesterday's low 32.80 as it was in down trend. It shot up $2 in short time and was kicking myself again. Now, it's back down headed to that low. Still wondering what to do, to take profit or to ride down hopefully. I should take some profit but getting greedy as contango is back in VIX futures.

  • Reply to

    More snow Thurs.

    by screwwbal Feb 3, 2015 5:53 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 4, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    May have to be long for a long time, just like last year, I was short from end of Jan till June/July. I am thinking of reverse of that this year. UNG staying low for the first half with $2+ spikes in between, only to take off in the middle of summer. This is why I am reluctant to grab Jul UNG calls.

    If I get into 2016 JAN UNG ATM calls, I will have about a year to wait but would make meaningful gain only after it recover significantly. LEAP calls will not move up as much as UNG in the first part of recovery. On the other hand, you get leveraged gain with UGAZ but if recovery comes late or with volatility, UGAZ will shrink. They all come with pros and cons.

  • Reply to

    More snow Thurs.

    by screwwbal Feb 3, 2015 5:53 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 4, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Based on the numbers I ran earlier, if NG future reverses at this point and goes back up to 4.25, UGAZ maybe between 7.50 to 10 depending on how it gets to 4.25. If NG future goes down to 2 and back up to 4.25, UGAZ maybe between 6 to 9 again depending on how it gets to 1 and back to 4.25. UGAZ will be lower if contango exists during NG future roll, or if NG repeats large up and down moves in the process.
    I'm still debating when to add to my small position, thinking of buying UNG shares, then UNG farther out month ATM calls, and then UGAZ if NG goes down further after that, after that DGAZ short if possible or sell KOLD deep ITM puts if cannot short DGAZ. That's the plan but I didn't see much of my execution going by the plan.

  • Reply to

    OT: OVX

    by lesserfool75 Feb 3, 2015 10:25 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Feb 4, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Isn't selling near month USO call and buying the next month betting on USO coming down? Volatility will increase if USO goes down. Not that I recommend selling near month USO put and buying the next month at this point. It doesn't look like there's a good way to short USO volatility either way. You have to sell USO options when volatility is high but USO is jumping up and down like crazy now. OVX index put option premium was very high, downside somewhat baked in.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Feb 4, 2015 7:34 AM Flag

    Closed 3 sets of USO long shares.
    Sold 2 sets of USO OTM calls against long shares.
    Been thinking that USO was investment to ride for a long time, but after beaten and beaten, couldn't hold them all for long and couldn't resist taking profit. Hope I can buy them back at lower price after inventory report.

    Closed TLT puts long.

    Seems like I missed chance to load up UNG.

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