% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

goodoptday 96 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 2, 2015 5:16 PM Member since: Feb 21, 2012
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 16, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    Sold 10 VXX next week deep ITM puts against VXX shares short. Doing again what I decided not to do before.
    I got VIX front future expiration date wrong the other day. It's next Wed. If market does not dip by then, there's up to another 10% downside to VXX due to next month VIX future becoming front month. Hope VIX bounce up a bit by then.

    Closed 500 TBT shares short.
    Shorted 2K NFLX shares.
    Bought 10 OUTR next week deep ITM puts.

    This week earnings, DPZ & YUM good, NFLX very bad. So the pain begins again. Just one major earning for next week.

    Account some plus yesterday, not much change today. Big day tomorrow with monthly options roll.

  • Reply to

    VXX down AGAIN with Dow Down over 100!!

    by eyecandylooking Aug 3, 2015 12:42 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Aug 3, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    I understand your point is that VXX not going up as much while the market dips as it happens often, and it won't change your point whether it's DOW or S&P today. But, you may want to talk about S&P with VXX since VIX is reflection of S&P 500 option premiums, not DOW. S&P is market cap based index while DOW is price based index,

  • Reply to

    VXX 9/28/15

    by goodoptday Sep 28, 2015 4:03 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Sep 28, 2015 6:37 PM Flag

    commander, I've been here posting daily trade journal for a bit more than 2 years. I don't believe in anyone telling anybody else what & when to buy/sell, let alone getting paid doing so. Maintaining my own account is challenging enough. If one followed my posts close enough, one would know that I have losing positions, some losing a lot, (not the ones zach points out, those are winning positions closed earlier than max profilt).

    Just one suggestion for you. When you go after people predicting or offering their view on where VXX will go, why not go after for both the direction, up and down, and not just down? Good Luck Trading & Policing.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 14, 2015 11:12 PM Flag

    Closed 1K XIV shares long. Not sure whether market is going to go down, but had nice gain so taking some off the table.

    VXX strong in the afternoon today. Not sure whether it's genuine VIX future buying or for manipulation targeting front VIX future expiration tomorrow morning to make it expire at higher price by bringing up VIX and then let VIX sink.

    Closed 1 YANG Aug deep ITM call long. Prefer to hold to expiration and it has good chance to expire worthless. But, need fund, to take good profit when given, and worried China may sink back down.

    Account some plus yesterday and today. So far USO is holding up well despite Iran deal. That's a relief.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 17, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    No trading today, just rolling of various deep ITM puts long to next week.

    Good day today, VXX down a bit and most of my market shorts are down too, especially DPZ in a long time. DPZ was a relief today. Now DPZ earning drop is more than enough to cancel NLFX earning pop. Hope USO doesn't go down further. Otherwise, retail stocks that were weak today are going to get stronger. Not sure what was strong today holding the SPY.

    Account big plus. Next month VIX future is about $2.50 higher than VIX. VIX needs to come up for VXX to stay at current level. If VIX does not come up by middle of next week, next month VIX future will have to come down to lower the gap and that will put pressure on VXX.

  • Reply to

    Good entry level!

    by condritin Aug 17, 2015 11:40 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Aug 18, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    konnikov, I don't think there's universally better strategy. People choose their trading strategy based on their gain expectations and risk appetite.

    Your strategy is less risky, liability may increase although it's much lower, but gain is limited (not saying 5% per month is low, but it's lower than what one can get with outright purchase of shares when direction is right).

    Trader's long option strategy is with limited liability, there's time value risk, but gain is not limited with less fund at risk.

    Different strategies come with their own pros and cons, and people choose what fits their trade goals and risk appetite best. What works for you and what makes you comfortable is the best strategy, I would say.

    I do naked option sales (weekly to LEAP, mostly ATM), shares short/long, deep ITM option long (purely for leverage), but not ATM/OTM option long because I hate to pay time value premium, and I'm not a very good market timer good enough to profit from OTM options long.

    So, don't worry about what others say about your strategy. You already have one working for you, and that's all you need. Good Luck Trading.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Aug 24, 2015 6:45 PM Flag

    Closed 1K DPZ shares short.
    Closed 3K SKX shares short.

    Closed 10 JNUG deep ITM calls sold.

    Added to positions going against me.

    Account huge minus. Wow, what a market. VXX peak today is 80% from bottom, 100% will be $31. Painful start of the week.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Aug 27, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    No trading past couple of days, except rolling assigned options. Been good for VXX day trading but none done, stunned, sort of.

    Closed 19 SCO deep ITM calls sold. Wanted to hold onto these for a long time but things don't work the way I wanted too often.

    Nice relief on oil in a very long time.

    Hoping that UNG stays low or go down until the market turmoil settles.

    Account big plus. Market is just moving too fast and too much for VXX to come down. Need market to stablize. Another roll day coming up, should be easier than last week.

  • Reply to

    VIX spot is getting lower than M1

    by jsp2002jsp Sep 2, 2015 2:14 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Sep 2, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    Hoping that S&P holds its gain till market close. Then we may see further pressure on VIX and VXX.

    Hoping that VIX spot goes below front month VIX future before EOD today. It will be a big milestone. The next will be bringing back contango between front month VIX future and the next month.

    Hope both VXX longs and shorts make good money through this VXX spike. Good Luck Trading.

  • Reply to

    VIX spot is getting lower than M1

    by jsp2002jsp Sep 2, 2015 2:14 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Sep 3, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    Finally, VIX spot is running lower than front month VIX future, and next month VIX future is not that far down from front month VIX future, just one buck away.

    As long as contango comes back before front month future expiration on 9/16, further boost in VXX from backwardation on future expiration can be avoided. With China market closed from yesterday, one risk factor is eliminated till the end of the week.

  • Reply to

    VXX 9/11/15

    by goodoptday Sep 11, 2015 4:51 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Sep 16, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    zach, wondered where you have been for the past couple of weeks. You're naming calling again, makes me wonder about your mental age. Want to see you one day just to see what kind of person you are, making all those calls on different boards, many times wrong, deleting embarrassing calls and bashing others.

    Not sure what your point is, if you're referring to XIV closure, don't worry it's less than 10% of volatility shorts I added during this VXX spike, just took some off the table and set aside cash just in case. I hope to get 10 bucks for each VXX short I added during this spike. I will update you one way or another, +10 bucks or -10 bucks.

    It must be good day for you if you shorted VXX, I'm feeling very good. Things may change later but that's how it is now. Shorts and longs don't need to fight each other, (both can make money or both can lose money), let alone between us on the same VXX short.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Sep 18, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    Sold 20 VXX Sep calls, to be assigned shares short this weekend

    20 SKX then ITM calls sold expired worthless. Would have been better if shorted shares, but still got enough for whole week's target gain.

    Account big minus. UNG made new ATL. Like torture having to wait this slowly drifting down UNG to come down significantly. With FED over, VXX spike is not as scary as before. No raise in Oct, Dec raise questionable at best. Today not too good, not too bad. Looking forward to next week.

  • Reply to

    goodoptday keep this moror/spammer on ignore!

    by zachperonio Sep 17, 2015 4:21 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Sep 17, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    zach, You are correct about 'PAID'. Ever since I started posting my trade journal here, market has been paying me very well, several times my full time job for 3rd year now. Isn't it great that part time trading one or two orders per day or less pays several times the full time job? I still keep my full time job to have something that I like to work on and getting paid while enjoying it. Planning on another vacation Nov. How about you zach? Good day zach.

  • Reply to

    Supply is below 72, but not by much

    by konnikov Sep 17, 2015 11:35 PM
    goodoptday goodoptday Sep 18, 2015 1:16 AM Flag

    konnikov, just wondering what your rough realized gain per month is. I remember you mentioned about 5% per month. Looked at UNG Oct 23 $11.5 puts. Today its premium averaged 0.15, which is about 1.3% of strike price. Applying 30% margin maintenance requirement, it gets to 4.33% in a little over a month assuming you get entire 15 cents premium.

    With higher per contract trade fee percentage given the low price of options you sell, buy back of puts sold and decay of puts long that you have to maintain to hedge, there seems some slippage. Maybe you make up more than slippage from lower maintenance requirement by having some puts long, in terms of gain per capital. Am I guessing correct?

    I also sell naked OTM options (mostly calls, rarely puts) without any long options, when I have funds that I don't need shortly. I used to enter with LEAP call sale, then closer months call sale, then same month/week sale, also moving from OTM to ATM and ITM during the process, and finally direct shares short, all to average when the position goes against me, As fund grew much larger, I am looking for safer strategy. 5% per month on half my fund or even quarter of my fund will be much more than enough for me. I get the idea how it's working based on your posts but difficult to guess how much net % is as I don't have all option price history through the process.

  • Reply to

    UNG tracking ?

    by nmbvua Sep 23, 2015 10:11 AM
    goodoptday goodoptday Sep 23, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    nmbvua, Maybe this will help you. UNG is now holding NOV NG futures and not SEP. So, for correlation you need to check NOV NG future price Open 2.635 High 2.664 Low 2.627 so far. This should explain the perception of mispricing though I didn't check.

    If you are comparing % up/down between NG futures and UNG, you also need to consider that closing times for NG futures and UNG are different, hence just comparing % up/down for the day is not apples to apples comparison.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Oct 2, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    Shorted 2K VXX shares in pre-market. Market reaction to jobs report (S&P +10 to -36) drove me crazy I guess.
    Closed 1K VXX shares short after market, little bit after closing.

    10 VXX deep ITM calls sold assigned shares short.
    10 VXX then ATM calls sold most likely to be assigned 1K shares short (strike 24, closing 24.03, it may or may not get assigned depending on whether the call holders decide to exercise 24 calls when VXX went below 24 after hours, going up and down crossing 24 strike price). VXX was in a hurry to 24 before closing but didn't quite make it, very close though.

    Everything else didn't work out today. Missed changed to sell SCO calls, missed chance to sell SKX puts against shares short.

    Account big plus, good enough to feel better over the weekend. VIX spot is getting closer to 20 one more time. Hope this time it's different.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 6, 2015 4:44 PM Flag

    Closed 1K TBT shares short.
    Closed 1K EXPE shares short.
    Closed 3K UGAZ shares short.

    Bought 750 GASL shares. Would be more comfortable shorting inverse of oil producers but didn't find good one to short. Maybe not a good idea to buy this ahead of Iran deal deadline, so just a small amount.

    Account some minus due to USO. Closed a bit of shares short but not as much as I wanted. Seems market is not going to go down easy. Unbelievable how it comes back up again and again. Getting tired.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 7, 2015 4:14 PM Flag

    Shorted 1100 VXX shares.

    Bought 10 SKX July deep ITM puts.

    Closed 30 GS weekly deep TIM puts long.
    Closed 5 SPY Jan 2016 now OTM calls sold.
    Closed 5 SPY Dec 31 now OTM calls sold. Some more market shorts closed but not much. With this, Jan 2016 gain target passed, at Feb 6, 2016.

    Sold 1 set of USO Jan 2016 deep ITM puts.
    Bought 1 set of USO Apr 2016 ATM puts. USO long increased to 6 sets now. Would be good if I can build 8 sets.

    Account good plus in a long time. Market came back up again from the dip. BTD like a clock work, BTD rewarded even intra-day these days. Need market stay down a bit longer to lighten up on market shorts. Hoping for another dip tomorrow on Fed minutes, or would it let the market fly away.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 8, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    Bought 1K XIV shares. Wanted to short VXX shares but VXX short shares not available AH in my broker. Added to VXX short since no market shorts were closed on a nice down day.

    Sold 1 YANG Aug deep ITM call. Just testing my luck, gamble in other words. Think will get chance to close lower as long as I can hold on to the position, barring assignment, being 3x.
    Sold 10 JDST Aug deep ITM calls. Starting with small # of contracts. Market volatility is going up but gold not up much and gold miners tanking. Last time, started shorting JDST at just above $10 and it went up over $17 in 4 days. Made good money in the end, with a lot of stress though. Hope this time it's better.
    Trying on 3x ETFs short, guess good chance of winning with volatility decay as long as entry sizes are managed well.

    Account big minus due to VXX. Finally, market closed near day's low, breaking 4 days of rebound towards market close. Hoping for another down day or at least down AM.

  • goodoptday by goodoptday Jul 9, 2015 4:31 PM Flag

    Closed 1K DE shares short assigned from calls sold before ex-dividend. Just this small closure today. Gain not trivial for this lot but not that great either, but needed fund to clear Reg T call. Not in maintenance call but this Reg T call is making things complicated.

    Another dramatic day, market started with a bang but then fizzled out.

    Account some minus. VXX not much changed but my market shorts up. Still waiting for UNG to come down but no much fund left for UNG now.

    What would Greek parliament say tomorrow. With the party opposing austerity ended up proposing more austerity, thought good chance to pass parliament, but market went down. Is it the lack of prospect that EZ would provide 50b requested? Things don't seem to work the way people expected, more austerity proposal after no to austerity referendum. What do I know. Would be happy with another market leg down before the earnings start.

59.01+0.93(+1.60%)Oct 2 4:01 PMEDT