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Walgreen Co. Message Board

goof_goof93 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 7:55 AM Member since: May 15, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Gralise approval in EU countries and Japan

    by shirazi2001us Apr 15, 2014 12:58 AM
    goof_goof93 goof_goof93 Apr 15, 2014 7:55 AM Flag

    The run rate for G drug (Gralise) was $50m at the end of last year before 19% price increase. With price increase, the run rate becomes $60. Now if the G drug accomplishes same growth as last year then its revenue for 2014 will be $120m. Even with much slower growth, $100m can be accomplished easily. With other 3 drugs and possible acquired new ones, 2014 product sale will be over $200m. This will blow out the current estimates.

  • goof_goof93 by goof_goof93 Apr 15, 2014 7:30 AM Flag

    It is unusual to have so many ads for hiring salesmen in different positions unless DEPO is getting prepare to acquire its next drug in near future.

  • Reply to

    DEPO product sale for 2014

    by shirazi2001us Apr 13, 2014 5:56 PM
    goof_goof93 goof_goof93 Apr 14, 2014 12:13 AM Flag

    Shiraz, I am smelling an acquisition announcement in next 2 weeks.
    DEPO shares were accumulated on last Friday. That was based on some leaks. It dropped later when the market went down but still much better than others in the sector.
    Keep the faith, it is happening in near future.

  • goof_goof93 by goof_goof93 Apr 9, 2014 11:32 PM Flag

    Moving forward a little bit faster does not hurt.
    This should be the pan: buy at least 2 more drugs than can add $30 m to $50 m rev yearly for time being.
    This will push the price over $20. When we get close to $20 then DEPO should issue 30m convertible bond at $20 to get $600 m for a large acquisition. The price will jump to $25 and gradually to $50.

  • Reply to

    Many smart longs on this board

    by lipkalr Apr 9, 2014 3:15 PM
    goof_goof93 goof_goof93 Apr 9, 2014 10:34 PM Flag

    What do you mean by that?
    If what you claim is correct then why they put their hard earned money in a stock like HZNP while there are many other stocks with strong and solid fundamentals around. For example, DEPO is a stock with more drugs plus having a patented technology called Acuform that makes $50 to $100 m every year. After all, DEPO does not issue shares like bannanas republic. It has only 56 m shares, no debt and $276m cash in the bank to grab more drugs sooner or later. So, what will a smart investor do? He/she sells HZNP with no hesitation and replace it with DEPO.

  • goof_goof93 by goof_goof93 Apr 6, 2014 11:44 PM Flag

    Currently, depo has 4 drugs, a time released technology called Acuform, plenty of cash to acquire more drugs, zero debt and only 56 m shares to be in fast lane. All 4 drugs will have a high growth for coming years.
    A few more acquisitions are expected in 2014 that will add to income and revenue.
    What else do you want from a stock?

  • Reply to

    Early Pre Earnings Release

    by fda_approval_trading Apr 4, 2014 9:38 PM
    goof_goof93 goof_goof93 Apr 6, 2014 10:04 PM Flag

    Jrdelane,
    You are a DEPO investor too. A few people said nice things about DEPO but did not cover all aspects of that company. I hear people here saying that HZNP management is smart and good. Well, that may be the case but they may be like a small finger of DEPO management. DEPO bought drug Lazanda only for $4 m. The drug had about $4 m of revenue in 2013 although the previous owner ignored to market it correctly. Depo bought Cambia in late Dec 2013 for $48.7 m (no royalty) for migraine. The drug produced $.6 m revenue in 2 weeks. You see, DEPO management is a great deal maker and they do it without dilution and borrowed money. Meanwhile DEPO sold its interest in type 2 diabetes for $240.5 m, such as an excellent deal for DEPO.
    Thus DEPO with 4 drugs, a cash cow technology Acuform, plenty of cash in hands ($278 m), zero debt, one drug completed Phase II, a few license deals for royalties with Jenssen, Ironwoodd and Mallinckrodt and other companies it is ready to rock and add many more drugs. Only 56 m shares and it can issue 100 m shares for $1.5 B to acquire a blockbuster drug or many small drugs. Now, you may know why DEPO is a superior company.

  • Reply to

    Projected Volatility and PTR (Part Two)

    by mikerconfer Apr 5, 2014 7:48 PM
    goof_goof93 goof_goof93 Apr 5, 2014 11:28 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, volatility will continue for a while for all stocks in the sector. If you check other stocks in the sector, you will see and hear the same thing. People who are holding med stocks wish for a quick fix and rebound but it does not work this way. For example, oil drillers started to go down since mid last year and they are still going down even though a lot of retail investors predicted bottom in past few months.

    Based on most pharma stocks, prescriptions for most companies in the sector were down since December of last year because of cold weather and also because of changes that is happening by Obama care act.
    If you have noticed, estimates for most stocks in the sector have been lowered (including HZNP).

    The sector sell off will continue and the stocks that have had sharp gains in recent months will be affected the most. I put HZNP in that category (either you like it or not since this is a fact). If the sector continues its sell off (high probability) then HZNP may drop more than other stocks in the sector. This has been the case so far.

    I am looking at the DEPO, another specialty pharma focused on pain management and anti-inflammatory.
    I have compared DEPO to HZNP and I cannot believe the huge differences in regard to their evaluations.
    I know people may get mad if I post my finding and analysis. I may do it in another post.

WAG
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