I need to spend time looking carefully over all the info from the CC. As far as salespeople, I mostly liked what I heard. Over half are meeting the original $1-2M goal. The top 50% of the surgery salespeople are $1.25M (annualized over second half of 2015) and the top 25% are actually at $1.6M (annualized). However, he said the bottom 25% "lagged by a meaningful amount" and also had a comment about salespeople turnover and the fact that the length of time employed does not correlate with sales numbers.
As a shareholder I really want them to be more aggressive weeding out poor salespeople. However, training is expensive so I agree with giving them a proper amount of time to prove their worth, but they really need to work on the bottom 50% who are not relatively new to Novadaq. It is imperative that they gain market share before there is competition in this market and I'm not convinced that this particular management team is up to the task.
OK, I think you may be right there. I couldn't find the last time Arun stated his "40% revenue growth for the foreseeable future" generic statement. It wasn't in the Q3 '15 CC, possibly it was during an investor event in the second half of last year.
We had 36.9% revenue growth last year and their guidance indicates it will slow to 32-35% next year. My point is their growth is not accelerating back up to 40%+ like I and many others expected in 2016, or at least certainly in the second half of 2016.
You are going to have to revise your model again as they just lowered projected 2016 revenue growth to $84-86M, which is 32-35% revenue growth over 2015,less than the previously stated 40%+ growth for 2016. No wonder this is getting slammed.
What do you think the chance is Arun presents "preliminary unaudited results" at the JP Morgan Health Conference next week, like he did last January? I like the idea of a blowout Q4 being released just a few days before January options expire. Sounds like a fun week!
In the Q3 conference call Arun stated that 40%, including cost of sales, was denominated in the Canadian dollar, so it's definitely helping.
I wouldn't use the word "catalyst" for Novadaq though. IMO it's grossly undervalued right now, due to short selling, the lack of investor relations' ability to provide information, or whatever other reasons. We'll see if Q4 results can catalyze the abandonment of the shorts. I don't entirely agree with GSA's optimistic projections but it looks like it should be a hell of a quarter. If that can't cause some positive movement it's going to be another few quarters.
So $17.0M, with a 74% margin and ($0.07) loss per share. Capital sales up 18.5% sequentially. Sounds like a beat to me, so I'd like to say the shorts lose, but you know how this goes... What looks like a sure thing (short squeeze) rarely comes to fruition.
I want to add a couple of notes I took:
-15% of this year's growth is due to ending the LifeCell agreement, due to the fact there is no 50-50 splitting of revenue. The analyst asked why they felt confident growth will pick up in the second half of 2015 going forward and Arun said they think the LifeCell transition is over and the large number of new salespeople are just becoming productive (this last 1/2 sentence is my paraphrasing of Arun's statement).
-In 12 to 18 months utilization will be a bigger driver. This will be interesting to see how quickly revenue from kit sales starts to gain on capital sales as Novadaq will eventually be making more revenue off the "razor blades" than the "razors".
-This fall their introducing a generation of new products and upgrades.
-Arun mentioned something I've never heard before, that there are 3-4 other companies with approved products that may eventually be competitors. We all new about Stryker, but I'm not really aware about the other companies. He did seem to not be too concerned with them, as Novadaq has a lot of IP for the other companies to overcome here, but we need to get the growth up to keep the first-mover advantage.