You always present great info, but your projections are always far too high in the time frame you mention. They will not have revenues of $2B by 2022, not with Stryker entering the market by the end of 2015. The question is what percentage of that possible $2B market will they have.
My greatest fears with Novadaq are 1.) the fact that it appears management is possibly not doing any better than average in managing their growth; 2.) Stryker already has distribution networks in place so could see greater growth than Novadaq at some point in the not-to-distant future; 3.) and most worrisome to me, I'm concerned about whether Novadaq will be able to protect all of their IP from Stryker and other future competitors. I absolutely do not want to see any long-term, expensive legal battles with Stryker over IP, and this is definitely on my radar.
Novadaq is still very promising, but I think we'll have to wait until Q4 2015 results to see if management has been able to get us back on track. I fear that the slow build out of the direct sales team may have cost us a lot of market share.
While it wouldn't be in the best interest of Novadaq or its shareholders to sell, if they would have done so already they would likely have not lost as much market share as they inevitably will to Stryker.
I wanted to mention that the product is called DermACELL, not Duracell. Arun thought Q1 revenue from DermACELL could be a "few hundred thousand" from the hospitals that are testing it, increasing more in the second half of the year.
Also, regarding Arun's comment calling this year the year of execution, I believe this is in relation to the fact he called 2014 a transition year. This seemed to be because of the transition of recurring revenue being a larger part of the revenue stream.
Finally, they are very difficult to model. Not only because it's in its early growth stages with a lot of new products, but also because the terminology Arun uses changes frequently and they don't provide consistent metrics, something Arun mentioned will change in 2015. We shall see.
I'm glad they explained the revenue hits because of ending the contract with LifeCell. I like that huge growth in PINPOINT/LUNA. I like the sales mix numbers for 2015 (90% direct revenue and 10% of the revenue should be international).
I need to investigate Stryker's entry into the market. I also was surprised that LifeCell let 25% of the SPY Elite base get to a point where it needs to be "revived" (Arun's words).