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Olin Corp. Message Board

gordon_jared 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 3, 2014 2:32 PM Member since: Aug 21, 2012
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  • Reply to

    still such a lack of understanding in CLF's

    by ohtaegun Jun 3, 2014 9:20 AM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Jun 3, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    It's story is that it is sub 50% of book value, and if IO goes back to $120 on a semi-stable basis, it's worth at least 40% upside.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • gordon_jared by gordon_jared May 1, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    Revenue up 380% YoY. That's some pretty solid revenue growth.

    I know the stock has run up quite a bit since last quarter, but it seems surprising that so far the market is taking the results in stride.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Philly Fed Positive 9

    by w999surf Mar 20, 2014 10:05 AM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Mar 20, 2014 6:31 PM Flag

    The news is that iron ore continues to trade below where CLF needs it to be. CLF correlates very highly with iron ore spot prices in the short term. Which is weird, because its earnings aren't that closely correlated with iron ore short prices, since they mostly sell on long term contract. But WS uses the data it has.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    enhancing long-term shareholder value !

    by redposition Mar 20, 2014 4:10 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Mar 20, 2014 6:28 PM Flag

    CLF was briefly above $25 earlier this year.

    If iron ore traded back into the $130 range, it would be again. Simple as that. Or a substantial cost reduction leading to a significant, unexpected earnings beat might cause some short covering that could put it back over $25 a few weeks after earnings. Funny how we got the news of the cost cutting just today...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just Got Done Talking With CLF Direct

    by w999surf Mar 20, 2014 5:21 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Mar 20, 2014 6:24 PM Flag

    I would be shocked if someone in investor relations doesn't periodically monitor this board to see what retail investors in CLF are talking about. It's not like there's a PR employee that also doubles as investor relations in a company the size of CLF. They may have a few people in their department. And setting up Google alerts on your company name is trivial - I frequently do it for my non-public clients.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    apple

    by boharhar Mar 7, 2014 1:51 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Mar 7, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    Apple does not use any AMD chips, to my knowledge. They would be among the least likely buyers. Most of the strategic buyers have competition issues in buying AMD (e.g. Nvidia, Intel, Microsoft, Sony). Private Equity, on the other hand...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Where is everyone??

    by tacosta10 Feb 27, 2014 10:37 AM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Feb 27, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    I loved the quarter, and loved the annual results, too. Hard to find any decently-priced stock with 468% increase in revenue Y/Y. I was a little worried the Street knew more than I did about what SQBG was doing. Now I'm pretty confident it is the opposite.

    I sold some for a moderate loss in December for tax reasons, and bought back the position today. Honestly, I hope the stock stays at this same price for another few months. I would definitely buy more if it does.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gordon_jared by gordon_jared Feb 18, 2014 6:56 PM Flag

    Any potential value for Exelon in the new nuclear plant loan guarantees (the first in 30 years) that the US just issued to Southern Company? Or just a net negative from more electricity generation?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • gordon_jared gordon_jared Feb 13, 2014 7:46 PM Flag

    You might get as high as 25 sometime in the next 5 days, but the market is too negative overall on iron ore for CLF to hit 30 anytime soon.

    As a owner of a fair number of shares, I'm fine with that. I would rather buy more, and have the dividend buy more, while the rest of the market ignores the substantial cash flow and liquidity-debt improvement Cliffs put up in Q4.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Olin Corp downgraded today

    by cannagirl Dec 20, 2013 10:57 AM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Dec 20, 2013 2:03 PM Flag

    Any idea why? Valuation? Or the green bullets thing?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    MAN

    by alfonso77777 Dec 20, 2013 1:41 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Dec 20, 2013 2:02 PM Flag

    It's as if the only EU news source about Orange that gets translated into English are Orange press releases.

    Today's action could be tax loss sellers, since it is 18% down from its high. Tis the season.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    .26 dividend

    by kansaskeith Dec 17, 2013 4:18 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Dec 18, 2013 2:41 AM Flag

    [User error ate the rest of my reply]... below 6 and a yield above 10%. Unless the earnings and dividend drop by 50% or more in the next year, TWO is probably underpriced. You are certainly paid enough to wait and find out.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    .26 dividend

    by kansaskeith Dec 17, 2013 4:18 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Dec 18, 2013 2:39 AM Flag

    After all, there aren't many stocks with a PE

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    .26 dividend

    by kansaskeith Dec 17, 2013 4:18 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Dec 17, 2013 4:48 PM Flag

    I have been pleasantly surprised at how little earnings erosion and dividend erosion TWO has experienced as mortgage rates have gone up.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • gordon_jared gordon_jared Dec 13, 2013 2:36 PM Flag

    I thought the most likely dividend increase point was Q1 2014, after the current dividend had been paid for one year?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Your advice requested.

    by crazyhorse1786 Nov 28, 2013 12:33 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Dec 2, 2013 12:56 PM Flag

    After DOW just got out of the way of Olin in the chlorine business and eliminated the supply overhang concern, I think you can expect solid medium term growth out of both parts of Olin. Coke is having growth problems, IIRC, and is a little pricier on a PE basis. You'll probably be better off in the medium term with Olin.

    Before the DOW announcement, I would have said Olin is just one of many decent, dependable dividend and value plays out there. Now, it's an obvious buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CLF saved 3.3 billion$ !

    by redposition Nov 21, 2013 9:15 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Nov 22, 2013 2:50 PM Flag

    I agree, and those opportunities should be paying down debt. Once their debt burden is substantially reduced, then the risks from IO volatility should be considerably lessened, and they can start working on diversifying into chromite again.

    There doesn't appear to be a near term solution for the political problems holding up their chromite project, anyway.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Tiny dividend

    by gordon_jared Nov 15, 2013 1:15 PM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Nov 15, 2013 7:09 PM Flag

    I am well aware that PCP has paid the same dividend for some time. My point is a different one, which I think was clear enough in my earlier post.

    Why should PCP maintain a dividend at all if it is a .05% yield? It would probably be better spent on funding organic growth (clearly the board's priority at PCP, and rightly so). Or it could slightly reduce their somewhat significant debt load.

    A dividend this small just doesn't make sense at the current size of the company or its share price. It's not as if normal investors would ding them for dropping such a small dividend (at least, not much or for long), so there must be a reason other than shareholder friendliness to maintain it.

    I gather you are suggesting inertia is the explanation. That seems unlikely to me. The Board has to look at the dividend every quarter, so there is at least a nominal consideration of the item before it is voted upon, and the dividend declared.

  • gordon_jared by gordon_jared Nov 15, 2013 1:15 PM Flag

    Not that I bought PCP for the dividend, but why does it even have one if it's that small? Is it to qualify them for some funds that require all their stocks to pay dividends or something?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Simple Math

    by shorting_amazon Nov 6, 2013 11:03 AM
    gordon_jared gordon_jared Nov 6, 2013 4:34 PM Flag

    Book value went up more than that that per share. You might want to note this gem about TWO's core earnings and book value from the CC: "All of these metrics are consistent with our expectations when we set the third quarter dividend."

    Sometimes mREITs position themselves defensively for a quarter or two and reduce their leverage. TWO did just that, and their book value did not take the hit over the last two quarters that most mREITs did because of it. They will probably increase their leverage on their agency bonds and up their earnings in Q4, since there is a little more clarity on rates and tapering now. If there is an issue, TWO can just not buy back as much stock for a quarter or two if liquidity is an issue, but based on the CC, it is not.

    Sentiment: Buy

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