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iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN Message Board

gordonfan4life2 49 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 2, 2015 10:10 AM Member since: Sep 16, 1998
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  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Mar 2, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    almost four years running but when you drop from $48 to $16 you know you're getting close to the bottom! I average down and sell on bounces and have actually made a few pesos thus far. When we stop hitting lower lows, the money will come easily. but until then you have to figure lower lows are coming or you can see losses pile up. I like being in at $15 1/2 for some shares, but I figure we could see $12 before the next bounce comes along. Its a seasonally weak time for precious metals, and gold is the alpha dog.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Feb 26, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    being touched around $16+. There is a gap around $17+ that could get closed on a move to the 200 day average. We'll see - watch gold for the tell!

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Feb 24, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    and I always start with unlevered SLV or PSLV but spike the punch bowl with AGQ if we plunge to new lows. The last 3 point bounce for SLV from $14.64 to $17.69 was good for 20% plus, but AGQ got a 40% plus bounce. I say if we're going lower (and it looks like we are) then bring it on. The lower silver prices go, the more confident I am that econ 101 and mining costs will start to kick in to reduce silver mined. We're nearing that point down here. Until recently, silver prices remained well above mining costs. If we drop much more, miners are really going to bleed.

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 24, 2015 11:46 AM Flag

    It is a seasonally weak period for silver, and we're within a point of the low, so I wouldn't be surprised to see SLV go to $12. I simply don't agree with the assessment of miners breaking even around $12. That would only be if they wrote off all their fixed costs and cut overhead completely to the bone, eliminated all capital expenditures, dividends, and any hope of a shareholder return. They're bleeding badly now with silver around $16 or $17, and its fairly obvious that another 25% plus reduction in silver prices would all but sink the ships!

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Feb 24, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    if you want to know where silver is going. If GLD (the alpha dog) goes to a new low, SLV (the beta dog), will also drop to a new low. GLD is sliding and is only five bucks off its low. Its a bear until proven otherwise, and silver has been sliding almost four years running. We are at a level where mining costs and econ 101 tell you we're approaching a bottom, but it looks like we're not there yet. Markets can over-shoot highs and lows.

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 24, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    Its the daily fix they're looking at according to the press, which is now done electronically by bid/ask which of course makes more sense. Its for the short-term, daily market making firms but it doesn't really effect long-term silver price moves. But yes, silver is a very small market which can be influenced by a whale (Hunt Brothers and Buffett once when silver bullion traded well below the cost to bring an ounce to the surface from a mine. Plenty of firms and hedgies can move billions around. Its nothing for a JP Morgan.

  • Reply to

    Yup , Been hearing this BS for YEARS NOW...

    by idealcarpentry Feb 22, 2015 1:25 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 22, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    I doubt it, simply because cash costs to mine an ounce run $12 at a lot of mines. Forget the sunk costs that no longer matter. At $16 an ounce, its profitless mining being done because mines need the cash flow to service corporate debt and stay open.

    But its all speculation - the only thing we're certain of is that we have been in nearly four years of decline and SLV has dumped almost 70% from $48 to $15 and we are entering seasonal weakness. Heck, we're already within a buck of the multi-year low. So we could go to $12 I figure before the next bounce, especially if GLD goes to a new low like $100. Its only $5 off its low of $110.

  • Reply to

    If Clippers Worth $2 Billion...

    by gordonfan4life2 Feb 11, 2015 8:04 AM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 20, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    It should be higher, with twenty bucks your first top. $19 has been a sell and $15 has been a buy for some time, with price targets in between around $17. The hedge fund managers decide where the shares trade, but family selling shares on the market also can effect supply/demand. MANU has been a trade from the start, but its always traded under fair value. Its easy to buy on weakness and sell on strength. The franchise value is well in excess of the share price you pay to buy shares, so like Buffett you want to be greedy when others are fearful...

  • Reply to

    So they showed their hand

    by henli1000 Feb 17, 2015 2:06 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 17, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    Gold shows the same pattern, with the shares now below the 50 and 200 day averages. We could be looking at new lows over the next few months. We'll see, but I've already started accumulating SLV again after selling PSLV on the bounce. I just think after going from nearly $50 to $15, SLV is back in its old range and spot silver is near a money losing proposition for the miners. I think most of the pain in the past almost four years running bear market for silver is almost over.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Feb 17, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    from $14.64 to $17.69 and its rolled over (now down two the three buck bounce). Weak seasonal factors have arrived and this thing could set a new lower low. The bounce to $17.69 was the 200 day average and just shy of the 'old' low of $17.75 and that 20 plus percent bounce is now over.

  • Reply to

    NOV is getting gang banged

    by stkdip Feb 6, 2015 11:18 AM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 11, 2015 6:38 PM Flag

    or you act like Buffett and invest for the long haul and use meltdowns as opportunities. The best profits are made when the market panics and sells stocks to ridiculously low levels. We may not be there yet with NOV but we sure are closing in on it fast after last week.

  • Reply to

    50dma looks like might not hold

    by henli1000 Feb 11, 2015 1:50 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 11, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    SLV and PSLV are bullion banks and do not have rolling futures contracts and contango and other fees eat them alive. They track spot with 99+ percent accuracy, and keep 97 or 98% of assets in bullion. That's why they work so well versus say USO with oil. USO gets chewed up with fees and contango and roll-overs. Bullion banks work. Futures contracts is a whole nother ballgame.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Feb 11, 2015 8:04 AM Flag

    MANU is very undervalued, plain and simple. A better performance on the pitch would help, but the franchise is worth far more than the current market cap.

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 8, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    Biggest reason is that was the year following the great global recession of 2009. This drop has largely been precipitated by the Saudi's refusal to cut quotas and flood the oil markets with excess capacity. They wanted a slowdown in fracking and drilling and they have got one! The rig count tells the tale - its dropping fast. OPEC countries don't want these low oil prices for long, and they may very well cut quotas in June. The Saudi's want more participation with Russia and other OPEC countries. Too much cheating in the past.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Feb 7, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    This thing has been diving big time. It may have further to go, but it'll get there fast at the rate we're going. The analysts have capitulated in mass and the investors also have been leaving in mass. Huge volume to boot says the share price is capitulating this past week. High beta stock for sure and the beta is on the downside.

  • Reply to

    Did NOV hit a resistance level today

    by sammy_crew Feb 6, 2015 3:46 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 6, 2015 11:10 PM Flag

    Chart says we're looking at around $46 before we hit another support level. The ones in the $50s were taken out earlier. Maybe down $40 from $86 to $46 is enough. The intense selling pace experienced during earnings week had to let up at some point, so it did on Friday after a lousy start in the morning.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Feb 6, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    When it rains, it pours. Blood in the Streets! Glad I accumulate slowly.

  • Reply to

    Hilarious...

    by s.eranger Feb 6, 2015 10:42 AM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 6, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    Analysts are like penguins and they're all jumping out of the shares. When this negative feedback loop ends, we will have a very attractively priced stock. High beta stock can always fall further as long as the negative feedback continues.

  • Reply to

    Target 40...

    by liputin Feb 5, 2015 9:08 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Feb 6, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    The quarterly conference call kind of says it all - this is a cyclical stock that has entered a deep cyclical downturn. It has the forties painted all over it if you ask me. $43 is half price, and any stock can get cut in half off a recent high. Chart tells me $46 is the next possible support (we busted any support in the $50s already). Its painful watching this train wreck in slow motion, but EVENTUALLY NOV will regain its strength. The only problem is eventually can be years, as in the analysts now call 2015, 2016 and 2017 lousy years for NOV. I own a few shares near $55 and I figure I might get to add some around $46. We'll see how low we go. This stock has plenty of beta so it can move around quite a bit! Good Luck. Be careful to SLOWLY accumulate if you choose to buy on weakness.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Feb 5, 2015 8:58 AM Flag

    as if $43 wasn't low enough. Jeffries says $51. OK - the average works out to the chart low of $46ish which is the next support level. The fall doesn't seem to want to end yet. Everyone says NOV is a 'great company with great management' but no new rig orders of size creates a big problem once the backlog is gone. Its a cyclical stock with a cyclical downturn. That's why the stock could get cut in half from its recent peak. But hey, down $35 at $52 is a definite start. Maybe the downside is under ten bucks at this point. I say down $40 to $46 should do it if we break lower again. I'm holding a few shares and I'll buy more if we go there.

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