Juniper Networks, Inc. Message Board

If gold hits $1,000 (or even breaks it) gold mines will shut down and exploration/expansion will cease. Supply/demand will rapidly start changing. It helps give the commodity a backstop so to speak. This summer could be lousy for gold and silver, but at some point it'll turn. Gold diggers index (gdx) is really getting crushed as their profits evaporate.

Buya clue. Do you think the miners are getting crushed because physical is so much more valuable than spot?

Dollar won't go much lower because everyone else (including China and now Japan) want their currencies cheap relative to the dollar. This is so they can sell their products at a good profit to the US market. I just don't buy the cheap dollar theory. The recent strengthening could continue for a while as Bank of Japan pounds the Yen down relative to the dollar. I figure Japan is seeing lots of inflation at the gas pump as they pay more in ever cheaper Yen. Hopefully we won't get wide-spread currency devaluations against the dollar, but Japan is hammering down the Yen towards five-year lows against the US dollar. South Korea is nervous, heck, lots of countries competing against Japan in the US for sales are getting nervous. The German auto makers aren't happy at all about the advantage being gained by Toyota/Lexus and Honda, Japan's stock market is soaring as the big export oriented companies all are looking good in Yen at least!

Its actually the futures market that drives the spot price for silver. SLV doesn't need futures as it just holds silver bars. Look at GLD and Paulsen with his billions invested in gold.

Net accumulation is net demand and net selling is net supply. Ingots sitting in a vault (neither bought nor sold) does not affect net supply/demand.

We'll at least see another good 7-10 point bounce before we see any $15 handle. Nothing goes in straight lines lower, and silver certainly has bounces even in the south bound lane. Bounces to the 200 dma is a good target, although we usually top above it. The 200 dma is currently $29.29 and even in a bear market scenario that we have been in for over two years now, the declining 200 dma is very relevant. I don't see the bear dropping too much further, but these trends can last longer than one might think.

You just have to wait it out to see how much the BOJ does to lower the Yen. Even when they reach some target level, they will attempt to prevent the Yen from rising so going long is a debatable proposition to begin with! Still can't touch this one for now.

try silver went down 54% from 48 to 22. now you're trying to tell me your bear market is confirmed? man, you're slow. buy a clue! silver is ready for another counter-trend bounce of six to ten points if you ask me. the 25/26 gaps tells you there is no overhead resistance from here. we could always go lower first, but a bounce is coming. this assumes we're still in a two-plus year bear that you have so astutely identified. thanks for the bear market confirmation. i assume you'll confirm the next bull near the top!

You might be right about the teens, but I am accumulating a few here and there and will continue to do so as allowed. If nothing else, we'll get good bounces even if we continue falling. 48 to 22 says we could go lower, but an average down system will work well. Its ALREADY been creamed, there's not too much left to drop! I'll start buying more than a few in the teens if allowed. Gold looks good as it approaches miners all in costs of $1,100 or $1,200.

Thing is - no country wants their currency strong versus the US dollar. They all print money and take action to keep their currency cheap relative to the dollar. The stock market doesn't really look like a bubble on fundamental valuations. I would of course agree that at some point interest rates drift higher, but that too would help strengthen the dollar. In short, the dollar simply never seems to drop much. Look at the Yen, which has collapsed in value against the dollar because the BOJ is driving it down. I keep hearing about the dollar collapsing, but what we saw in the last crisis was everyone wants greenbacks when the #$%$ hits the fan. The dollar soared when the financial panic hit. I have been slowly accumulating silver recently, but this end of the world story sounds like all the other end of the world stories where they never pan out. They say it only happens once, so odds of its prediction being right are very limited!

Its not getting hold of kilo bullion bars that is the problem. Just not enough capacity to produce shiney coins from bullion bars. SLV reflects bullion spot prices, not shiney one ounce coin prices. Ask the miners, and they'll tell you there is no shortage of physical metal - they wish there was because their profit margins are getting whacked.

Just about every potash project is on hold. Potash is the low cost, high margin producer with a 100 year supply and it is winding down brownfied cap ex projects this year and will see cash flows surge. Mining costs are rising and others are watching new projects flounder or get put on hold. Very wide moat company - nice when so many miners are having an awful time. Good upside if potash pricing ever improves again. Mining stocks everywhere are getting nailed. The Canadian cartel members will be profitable, but new entrants are all on hold.

We are seeing projects get put on hold and prices are stabalizing. Shipments to China and India are finally starting up again. The Canadian and Russian cartels will keep production and pricing intact. A dog stock lately but well run and lots of upside when commodities start improving.

Gold miners keep producing and selling gold on the market. However, if prices do go to $1,200 or lower we will see capacity start to shrink as mines are moth-balled and new projects get put on hold. It becomes a great bet if you can buy gold for a lower cost per ounce than the miners pay to produce an ounce. It puts a floor on the cost of gold to an extent.

Its a coin shortage from the mints. No shortage of kilo bullion bars. The spot price has always been spot on - just ask any mining company that sells its physical supplies. A bullion shortage (which does not exist presently) would drive up spot prices in a hurry. JP Morgan might be covering its shorts down here. Goldman sure did play the gold market well recently! Remember - spot is for bullion bars - not shiny coins that a lot of investors prefer for long-term physical holdings. Only if enough bars get melted down for coins/jewelry/industrial use would we get a bullion spot price change.

So I guess gold and silver prices are historically declining!? Buy a clue - anything affecting supply and demand shows up in the spot price - econ 101. GLD actually liquidated gold and shares when investor demand declined recently. Two year plus bear market in silver - the beta dog - has shares down over 50% from the run towards $50 that was the Hunt brothers high back in 1980. Investors can now put retirement account money in shiny one ounce coins, and they're buying in size (and paying a significant premium to bullion for the shinyness)! I like the low cost option of SLV or PSLV shares. Dealers will eat up any trading profits, Everything is marked to spot anyway, except legal tender coinage which has 'coin collector' value on top of the silver value. Don't know why its called junk!

SLV can have up to a 4% premium or discount. In theory, PSLV could certainly experience small discounts as a closed end fund if silver was falling and traders wanted out. SLV was at a 0.5% discount yesterday. SLV and even PSLV should experience discounts sometimes in a bear market, but PSLV seems to almost never experience amy real discounts. Unallocated physical silver with an option to take physical delivery on large blocks of shares (at your expense, of course), seems to offer a slightly superior ETF to SLV. PSLV's fee is 0.
65% versus SLV at 0.50%. Reality is that shares in PSLV will unlikely to ever be liquidated by taking physical delivery unless the discount were to become sizable.