needs to wind down so free cash flow can wind up. There is plenty of excess capacity for years to come in the industry, so green fields are out of the question as long as prices remain so depressed. Sustainable free cash flow becomes critical in this very competitive industry. Hopefully 2016 and 2017 will see cap ex wind down and free cash flow wind up. With a 5% dividend, POT is a good bet to see better years ahead even with depressed prices.
We'll see what the next new low is - I would guess $15 or even $14. I like GG, but you can only accumulate slowly near the lows. The drops can be brutal, but the pops give you a 40% to 50% bounce off the lows.
Until proven otherwise, silver is in the fifth year of an ongoing bear market and it would not be at all surprising to see another lower low of say $13 or even $12. As prices start hitting cash costs we will see econ. 101 start slowing production. If you go from $48 to $12, my guess is a 75% drop says you're about done dropping much. I accumulate slowly on weakness at these depressed levels.
POT is a heck of a lot better near $30 than it was near $38. The 5% divvy pays you to wait for the next run higher, and the low valuation level sets you up for a reversal. Any stock can drop further, but POT looks like a limited downside stock here near $30 imo.
Accumulate slowly starting near the lows. More bounces along the way, but we could see $15 before we see $20. If gold slides to $1,000 all the gold miners will suffer, GG included. GG has the best balance sheet and assets and the best chance to survive a prolonged downturn, so you average in slowly and get a good bounce to ride somewhere along the line. There is risk, so don't get in too deep on the drops. Buy slowly.
Last two lows were 20 and 17, so maybe we see 14 or 15 this time. Watch gold prices for clues. We'll get another good bounce at some point, though. Maybe we dump to $14 and then get a miracle rally to $21. Last rally was $17 to $25 six months ago. One before that was from $20+ to $29+. It looks bleak right now, but it always does before another rally gets going. If you accumulate like me down here, do so very slowly as it looks like another new low is on tap. Bear chart if I ever saw one!
All in is too dangerous for me, but GG has the assets and balance sheet to survive this downturn much better than most. Until this bear market for gold is broken I have to slowly accumulate on weakness and assume lower lows are possible.
If gold continues to slide, GG may see $14 or $15 before it sees the $20s again. High beta bounces will continue though even if the bear continues. Last bounces were to $29 and $25. Seasonal weakness is still happening in June.
Its exactly because GG has been whipped to the teens that its a good buy now. FUTURE shareholders will do well, but not shareholders who held near $30. Thus far, its been accumulate near the lows on down and sell the strong bounces as the bear chart has not been broken. If gold drops, all the miners will suffer but GG looks best suited to survive. GG has more strong bounces ahead. We'll see if another new low is in store before the next big bounce!
Silver is 90% correlated to gold, but has a higher beta. Its the tail of the big dog gold. $48 to $16 for SLV tells me most of the drop is done because the damage has already been done. Miners are becoming profitless at these levels so Econ. 101 starts to come into play. You can simply buy and sell on points and do fine down here imo. We might go to $12 and then bounce back to $16 but the downside is becoming limited because silver has gone two-thirds of the way to zero from its high of $48! At some point the $25 gap will get filled, but which year that happens is up for debate.
Ever since GG dropped into the $20s we've seen profitable bounces every time. Here in the teens is no different, but the valuation is so depressed the upside becomes greater when gold bounces. High beta bouncer, good balance sheet, good assets, you want to accumulate slowly near the lows. Last run was $17 to almost $25, we'll see if the next run is $15 to $21 under a continuing bear market pattern. If you play this thing right down here you'll make money.
Your downgrade knocked the price down to the 52-week low of 31 1/2, with a dividend near 5%. Bought some more on the weakness. This potash giant is under-valued down here but all the miners are getting whacked!
The question is whether we see a re-test. I get the feeling NOV is settling down around $50, but the strong drop mojo could continue a while. Accumulate in the forties has worked, but not accumulating in the fifties.
RSI almost at 30 agrees with over-sold status. Last pop was from $17 to almost $25, Maybe this one's going from $15 to $22 1/2. Regardless, its an accumulate starting near the low and adding on down for the next bounce. Just go slowly if you think we could see $14/$15 before we see $20.
so far with GG. We'll always get good bounces with this miner even if it gets smoked from time to time! Just average in starting near the lows and its hard to miss on the next bounce.
gold and silver will stay under pressure. BUT, Econ 101 says that silver mines will start to shut down around $12 an ounce, so I just don't see too much downside left after dropping from $48 to $15 even if the dollar continues higher. Bear is four years old and has crushed the miners. Sentiment is very negative. I somehow think we're not far from a bottom. We'll see. I just scale in on weakness and scale out on bounces. When this bear is done, things will get far easier, but right now its tough to make much on these small bounces and bigger drops.
SLV works as advertised and yes, it invests in real silver bullion. PSLV is a better mousetrap, though, that I prefer when there is little or no premium. Bullion banks are simple and straight-forward and work. By the way, silver and gold will always be priced in US dollars, you know, real money that buys real things. As the US dollar gets stronger it hurts all commodities.