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Microsoft Corporation Message Board

gordonfan4life2 21 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 minutes ago Member since: Sep 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    not buying for safety

    by helendavis1930 18 hours ago
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 5 minutes ago Flag

    It is precisely because of SLW's very strong balance sheet that I'll wager a small bet on this beaten up mining related stock. The plunge from the twenties to twelve was over done if there ever was such a thing! The tax issue and shareholder law suits will take time to resolve, but the company is basically very sound and remains profitable even if you raise tax on income.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jul 31, 2015 10:52 PM Flag

    Silver and gold are way out of favor. Shorting metals has become popular with traders, which tells me the market is ready to bounce. I always prefer PSLV to SLV when I can buy it without a premium. I own 'em both and continue to accumulate on weakness with new lows. When silver was in bull market mode, PSLV could trade at a 20% premium. With a bear market going on five years, silver traders are having trouble getting bullish. PSLV trades at a quarter of its all-time high. Down 75% - wow. Not too much further to go if you think silver won't become free!

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jul 28, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    than the leveraged miners. Gold is the dog and silver is the tail. GG and SLW are getting creamed but the fully unlevered bullion banks (SLV, PSLV, GLD) hold up much better in this lousy market. PSLV is down 75% from its 2011 peak and selling at discount yesterday. I don't think silver bullion has much further to drop!

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Jul 25, 2015 10:21 PM Flag

    Cash costs of $10-$12 an ounce for silver sets a floor of sorts. Gold might want to test $1,000 soon. Now if you want crazy gambling, check out NUGT. That sucker moves all over the map, but mostly down, down and down some more.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jun 20, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    needs to wind down so free cash flow can wind up. There is plenty of excess capacity for years to come in the industry, so green fields are out of the question as long as prices remain so depressed. Sustainable free cash flow becomes critical in this very competitive industry. Hopefully 2016 and 2017 will see cap ex wind down and free cash flow wind up. With a 5% dividend, POT is a good bet to see better years ahead even with depressed prices.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jun 15, 2015 8:32 AM Flag

    We'll see what the next new low is - I would guess $15 or even $14. I like GG, but you can only accumulate slowly near the lows. The drops can be brutal, but the pops give you a 40% to 50% bounce off the lows.

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Jun 14, 2015 1:22 AM Flag

    Until proven otherwise, silver is in the fifth year of an ongoing bear market and it would not be at all surprising to see another lower low of say $13 or even $12. As prices start hitting cash costs we will see econ. 101 start slowing production. If you go from $48 to $12, my guess is a 75% drop says you're about done dropping much. I accumulate slowly on weakness at these depressed levels.

  • Reply to

    5% Divy

    by stockanalyzersupreme Jun 8, 2015 12:25 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Jun 14, 2015 12:55 AM Flag

    POT is a heck of a lot better near $30 than it was near $38. The 5% divvy pays you to wait for the next run higher, and the low valuation level sets you up for a reversal. Any stock can drop further, but POT looks like a limited downside stock here near $30 imo.

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Jun 13, 2015 11:54 PM Flag

    Accumulate slowly starting near the lows. More bounces along the way, but we could see $15 before we see $20. If gold slides to $1,000 all the gold miners will suffer, GG included. GG has the best balance sheet and assets and the best chance to survive a prolonged downturn, so you average in slowly and get a good bounce to ride somewhere along the line. There is risk, so don't get in too deep on the drops. Buy slowly.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jun 11, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Last two lows were 20 and 17, so maybe we see 14 or 15 this time. Watch gold prices for clues. We'll get another good bounce at some point, though. Maybe we dump to $14 and then get a miracle rally to $21. Last rally was $17 to $25 six months ago. One before that was from $20+ to $29+. It looks bleak right now, but it always does before another rally gets going. If you accumulate like me down here, do so very slowly as it looks like another new low is on tap. Bear chart if I ever saw one!

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jun 8, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    The global potash leader with a 5% dividend is in the buy zone.

  • Reply to

    Re-Test of the $17 Low...

    by gordonfan4life2 Jun 6, 2015 9:41 AM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Jun 7, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    All in is too dangerous for me, but GG has the assets and balance sheet to survive this downturn much better than most. Until this bear market for gold is broken I have to slowly accumulate on weakness and assume lower lows are possible.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jun 6, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    If gold continues to slide, GG may see $14 or $15 before it sees the $20s again. High beta bounces will continue though even if the bear continues. Last bounces were to $29 and $25. Seasonal weakness is still happening in June.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jun 1, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    are buying opportunities for POT. Gotta love the 5% dividend for this wide moat leader. Not aggressive but buying some on weakness.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 31, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    Its exactly because GG has been whipped to the teens that its a good buy now. FUTURE shareholders will do well, but not shareholders who held near $30. Thus far, its been accumulate near the lows on down and sell the strong bounces as the bear chart has not been broken. If gold drops, all the miners will suffer but GG looks best suited to survive. GG has more strong bounces ahead. We'll see if another new low is in store before the next big bounce!

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 May 31, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    Silver is 90% correlated to gold, but has a higher beta. Its the tail of the big dog gold. $48 to $16 for SLV tells me most of the drop is done because the damage has already been done. Miners are becoming profitless at these levels so Econ. 101 starts to come into play. You can simply buy and sell on points and do fine down here imo. We might go to $12 and then bounce back to $16 but the downside is becoming limited because silver has gone two-thirds of the way to zero from its high of $48! At some point the $25 gap will get filled, but which year that happens is up for debate.

  • Reply to

    Welcome to the goldtard graveyard

    by lex_luther4 Mar 27, 2015 4:06 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 May 31, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    Ever since GG dropped into the $20s we've seen profitable bounces every time. Here in the teens is no different, but the valuation is so depressed the upside becomes greater when gold bounces. High beta bouncer, good balance sheet, good assets, you want to accumulate slowly near the lows. Last run was $17 to almost $25, we'll see if the next run is $15 to $21 under a continuing bear market pattern. If you play this thing right down here you'll make money.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 29, 2015 4:06 PM Flag

    Your downgrade knocked the price down to the 52-week low of 31 1/2, with a dividend near 5%. Bought some more on the weakness. This potash giant is under-valued down here but all the miners are getting whacked!

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 28, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    The question is whether we see a re-test. I get the feeling NOV is settling down around $50, but the strong drop mojo could continue a while. Accumulate in the forties has worked, but not accumulating in the fifties.

  • Reply to

    Ridiculous....opened a position at $17.37

    by rbgambler99 May 26, 2015 1:44 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 May 26, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    RSI almost at 30 agrees with over-sold status. Last pop was from $17 to almost $25, Maybe this one's going from $15 to $22 1/2. Regardless, its an accumulate starting near the low and adding on down for the next bounce. Just go slowly if you think we could see $14/$15 before we see $20.

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