I am in at $15 1/2 for my first buy. I will accumulate more shares slowly if we do drop to another lower low. I almost never own enough shares at the low but I keep my average share price within a point or two of the low and do just fine. The easy money will come once gold and silver bottom out. I don't think we're far from the low but this bear is showing no signs of being over. At new oversold lows, I also like to start spiking the punch bowl with a few shares of AGQ, but I always start out just with the unlevered SLV or PSLV bullion trust shares.
and the three point 20% bounce in January wasn't much anyway. GLD and SLV look like they could be re-testing their lows in the coming weeks. Downside appears somewhat limited by Econ. 101 mining costs, but a new lower low would be on par for this bear that is nearly four years running. $12 is possible imo, but its still an accumulate slowly anywhere near $15 and below.
almost four years running but when you drop from $48 to $16 you know you're getting close to the bottom! I average down and sell on bounces and have actually made a few pesos thus far. When we stop hitting lower lows, the money will come easily. but until then you have to figure lower lows are coming or you can see losses pile up. I like being in at $15 1/2 for some shares, but I figure we could see $12 before the next bounce comes along. Its a seasonally weak time for precious metals, and gold is the alpha dog.
and I always start with unlevered SLV or PSLV but spike the punch bowl with AGQ if we plunge to new lows. The last 3 point bounce for SLV from $14.64 to $17.69 was good for 20% plus, but AGQ got a 40% plus bounce. I say if we're going lower (and it looks like we are) then bring it on. The lower silver prices go, the more confident I am that econ 101 and mining costs will start to kick in to reduce silver mined. We're nearing that point down here. Until recently, silver prices remained well above mining costs. If we drop much more, miners are really going to bleed.
It is a seasonally weak period for silver, and we're within a point of the low, so I wouldn't be surprised to see SLV go to $12. I simply don't agree with the assessment of miners breaking even around $12. That would only be if they wrote off all their fixed costs and cut overhead completely to the bone, eliminated all capital expenditures, dividends, and any hope of a shareholder return. They're bleeding badly now with silver around $16 or $17, and its fairly obvious that another 25% plus reduction in silver prices would all but sink the ships!
if you want to know where silver is going. If GLD (the alpha dog) goes to a new low, SLV (the beta dog), will also drop to a new low. GLD is sliding and is only five bucks off its low. Its a bear until proven otherwise, and silver has been sliding almost four years running. We are at a level where mining costs and econ 101 tell you we're approaching a bottom, but it looks like we're not there yet. Markets can over-shoot highs and lows.
Its the daily fix they're looking at according to the press, which is now done electronically by bid/ask which of course makes more sense. Its for the short-term, daily market making firms but it doesn't really effect long-term silver price moves. But yes, silver is a very small market which can be influenced by a whale (Hunt Brothers and Buffett once when silver bullion traded well below the cost to bring an ounce to the surface from a mine. Plenty of firms and hedgies can move billions around. Its nothing for a JP Morgan.
I doubt it, simply because cash costs to mine an ounce run $12 at a lot of mines. Forget the sunk costs that no longer matter. At $16 an ounce, its profitless mining being done because mines need the cash flow to service corporate debt and stay open.
But its all speculation - the only thing we're certain of is that we have been in nearly four years of decline and SLV has dumped almost 70% from $48 to $15 and we are entering seasonal weakness. Heck, we're already within a buck of the multi-year low. So we could go to $12 I figure before the next bounce, especially if GLD goes to a new low like $100. Its only $5 off its low of $110.
It should be higher, with twenty bucks your first top. $19 has been a sell and $15 has been a buy for some time, with price targets in between around $17. The hedge fund managers decide where the shares trade, but family selling shares on the market also can effect supply/demand. MANU has been a trade from the start, but its always traded under fair value. Its easy to buy on weakness and sell on strength. The franchise value is well in excess of the share price you pay to buy shares, so like Buffett you want to be greedy when others are fearful...
Gold shows the same pattern, with the shares now below the 50 and 200 day averages. We could be looking at new lows over the next few months. We'll see, but I've already started accumulating SLV again after selling PSLV on the bounce. I just think after going from nearly $50 to $15, SLV is back in its old range and spot silver is near a money losing proposition for the miners. I think most of the pain in the past almost four years running bear market for silver is almost over.
from $14.64 to $17.69 and its rolled over (now down two the three buck bounce). Weak seasonal factors have arrived and this thing could set a new lower low. The bounce to $17.69 was the 200 day average and just shy of the 'old' low of $17.75 and that 20 plus percent bounce is now over.
or you act like Buffett and invest for the long haul and use meltdowns as opportunities. The best profits are made when the market panics and sells stocks to ridiculously low levels. We may not be there yet with NOV but we sure are closing in on it fast after last week.
SLV and PSLV are bullion banks and do not have rolling futures contracts and contango and other fees eat them alive. They track spot with 99+ percent accuracy, and keep 97 or 98% of assets in bullion. That's why they work so well versus say USO with oil. USO gets chewed up with fees and contango and roll-overs. Bullion banks work. Futures contracts is a whole nother ballgame.
MANU is very undervalued, plain and simple. A better performance on the pitch would help, but the franchise is worth far more than the current market cap.
Biggest reason is that was the year following the great global recession of 2009. This drop has largely been precipitated by the Saudi's refusal to cut quotas and flood the oil markets with excess capacity. They wanted a slowdown in fracking and drilling and they have got one! The rig count tells the tale - its dropping fast. OPEC countries don't want these low oil prices for long, and they may very well cut quotas in June. The Saudi's want more participation with Russia and other OPEC countries. Too much cheating in the past.
This thing has been diving big time. It may have further to go, but it'll get there fast at the rate we're going. The analysts have capitulated in mass and the investors also have been leaving in mass. Huge volume to boot says the share price is capitulating this past week. High beta stock for sure and the beta is on the downside.
Chart says we're looking at around $46 before we hit another support level. The ones in the $50s were taken out earlier. Maybe down $40 from $86 to $46 is enough. The intense selling pace experienced during earnings week had to let up at some point, so it did on Friday after a lousy start in the morning.
Analysts are like penguins and they're all jumping out of the shares. When this negative feedback loop ends, we will have a very attractively priced stock. High beta stock can always fall further as long as the negative feedback continues.