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The St. Joe Company Message Board

gordonfan4life2 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2014 12:31 PM Member since: Sep 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Where's the bottom?

    by leardmichael65 Jul 22, 2014 3:12 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Jul 27, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Don't know, but after dropping for the past two years from $52+ to $26, we know CORN is most of the way through the decline. I suspect we could stay low until the focus begins on next year's crop and the uncertainties of the weather put a premium back in the pricing. Corn won't go to zero, and after dropping from $8+ a bushel to now close to $3.50 we can't have too much further to drop. Everyone is now expecting another bumper crop, so my guess is its largely already priced in at 3 1/2 versus 8. Nibbling at $26 but largely waiting because we could stay in a funk for at least a few more months.

  • Reply to

    Where's the bottom?

    by leardmichael65 Jul 22, 2014 3:12 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Jul 23, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    I just started a very small position for now. We could be swimming in corn this fall and find the price either remains low or gets lower still - the trend is definitely down. However, corn prices won't go to zero and as the price goes towards $3 a bushel I have to wonder how much lower it can go. The soybean to corn ratio, now at 3.34, is nearly as high as its ever been in forty years, which also gives me pause on just how much downside is left in corn. I will look to add either by averaging in on further weakness or just waiting to see what the expected bumper crop does to prices. It might take a while to happen, but there is no doubt in my mind that corn will eventually get more rallies.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jul 20, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    says corn is dirt cheap compared to soybeans. We'll see how this plays out, but the ratio is near 3.2 which is at peak levels according to the forty year charts. Corn is getting mauled as they are expecting to be swimming in it with this year's harvest (back to back bumper crops) and very low cattle feed demand. Sooner or later, though, prices have to be getting near a bottom. Probably not there yet, with more pain to come, but I don't see corn going much below $3 (if it manages to get there).

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jul 14, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    too long without a pull-back. Gap at $19.05 short-term and gap at $20.57. Sooner or later silver will fill the $25+ gap, but it could take a while.

  • Reply to

    People betting on chapter 11 here

    by smithts777 Jul 10, 2014 2:11 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Jul 10, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    No chance of BK with their balance sheet and punk profits, but with no same store sales growth (or even negative growth), this stock probably stays in the crapper for a while.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jun 14, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    going back to 2011 $49 high. For over three years, spot silver hasn't broken the downtrend line, so if we do this time it would be a definite tell imo. Otherwise, we dip again going into Q2 June 30th close. We should see a big up or down move, based on the chart, and one could hope we've started a good up move. Too early to tell, but this is a critical juncture imo.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Jun 10, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    Silver seems to have no volatility. I don't care if this thing moves North or South, but I can't make money unless it actually moves! Worked well for a while, and now it just sits there like dead money. We know this thing is anything but dead, but its acted like it recently. Oh well. Its June and if this thing doesn't crack and break down by month-end, its probably going to bounce again. $15 and $25 seem to be the primary targets. Low risk imo but right now no volatility.

  • Reply to

    GOLD CLOSES UP AND THIS FILTHY SECTOR CLOSES RED

    by mjmjam50 Jun 9, 2014 4:08 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Jun 9, 2014 11:04 PM Flag

    Actually they can. GG looking at all-in costs below $1,000 an ounce. You go with the best in class miner during tough times, the one with the best balance sheet, best assets, best management - that would be GG. June is a lousy month for PMs so we might see another good buying op in the next two or three weeks imo. Q2 end 2014 could be just like Q2 2013.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 30, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    I will hold SLV but on this oversold condition (RSI near 30 on SLV and AGQ) but I will start accumulating a few AGQ shares.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 29, 2014 12:44 AM Flag

    Two times in the past year the RSI broke 30 and we saw 40% rallies. While another rally is no doubt approaching, I get the feeling we haven't hit bottom yet.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 28, 2014 9:39 PM Flag

    and this could cause silver to break through the support of $18ish we have seen for quite some time. I only have a small stake in SLV but I'm starting to look at AGQ, GDX and even NUGT if we get a June rout like last year going into the end of Q2. SLV is totally unlevered and has relatively low volatility and risk down here imo but a break-out to the downside would set up very profitable trades in AGQ, GDX and NUGT imo.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 27, 2014 11:24 PM Flag

    I can't help but get the feeling prices are about to take another drop down when I look at the charts. I have a small long position in SLV and everything is pointing to another good pop or drop after this tight recent trading, but my gut is telling me its a drop. We'll see what happens. If its a drop down to say the $15 level I will be piling into AGQ as well as SLV & PSLV.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 27, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    I will start looking at AGQ as well as SLV and PSLV. Chart says a big move is coming and if its a drop to the Q2 end of quarter (June 30th) like we saw in 2013 I'll become a big buyer.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 21, 2014 7:34 PM Flag

    No volatility or movement to speak of as usual lately. Hanging around near the low with a break-out or break-down coming soon per the chart.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 14, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    Silver rarely gets this 'stuck'. I'm not losing money nor making any recently as there is just no real price movement. I really don't care much if prices go up or down in the short-term, but I need to get some movement to make anything. Oh well, the price chart and bollinger bands say we're about to get a move up or down of size and we'll see what happens. Not a seasonally strong time going into the June 30th close, so it could be one more crunch down to say $15. A pop could see the $25+ gap get filled. I'll take either move, anything but this do nothing, go nowhere price movement. So much for silver being a volatile commodity recently!

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 May 12, 2014 10:53 PM Flag

    The chart pattern says silver is ready to make a big move (either higher or lower) in the near future. I hold some SLV and PSLV down here in the teens, but if we get a break down then I'll look to add some AGQ as well as average down in unlevered silver ETFs. Averaging down in unlevered silver ETFs has worked well for me thus far, but AGQ serves a purpose imo when a major move down occurs.

  • Reply to

    Still waiting for that new low….

    by idealcarpentry May 1, 2014 11:37 AM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 May 1, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    I'll just average in here in the teens. SLV is oversold again and it could very well hit another new low. We'll just have to wait and see. One thing is for sure imo, the bounces off these levels will let you ring the register if you simply keep the score close. If we get mauled again, I'll look to buy AGQ as well as SLV and PSLV.

JOE
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