JO has been in the dog house for years now. Most sane investors are staying away until some positive technicals develop. I've traded this thing a couple times now for basically a push and haven't bothered trying for a while. I'm fairly confident coffee is a whole lot closer to the bottom down here, but it could still be a ways off. Usually choppy bottoms develop into gradual rises over time, but the moving averages and share price all say to wait as they have for a long time.
GDX is due for a bounce. Bought a few Friday around 26 1/2 and we'll see what happens. Just a small stake to possibly accumulate on weakness. The recent drop from $55 to $26 without any counter-trend rally seems way overdone. I like GG but know that the index fund is the way to play the industry mauling when you average down. Sentiment has fallen to zero with the gold diggers! Silver was most interesting today - down 10% in Asia this morning and then closes significantly higher in New York. Talk about a violent shake-out followed by a big rally. Rallies can start out of nowhere, especially brief counter-trend rallies. We might have started one today.
Down 10% early on with lots of margin selling followed by a big rally here - talk about a turnaround after violently shaking out the weak hands! Unfortunately, we never saw down 10% so I was not able to nibble again today. We could be ready for the next counter-trend bounce of 7 to 10 points imo. Sooner or later, we'll get the next bounce that we're due for after collapsing below $25 1/2 support.
We'll see bounces for certain, but when and how much is unknown. Unless gold goes back up, these depressed prices could last a while, though. Sentiment is around absolute zero for GDX and the crushing sell-off sets up reflex bounces if nothind else. Bought a few shares Friday of this downhill racer.
Sounds good, but at some point GDX will be due for another good bounce. At some point, its just too cheap despite the massive pessimism. GDX probably keeps declining for a while longer, but I have to think after dropping from $66 to $26 the short trade is getting long in the tooth.
If gold hits $1,000 (or even breaks it) gold mines will shut down and exploration/expansion will cease. Supply/demand will rapidly start changing. It helps give the commodity a backstop so to speak. This summer could be lousy for gold and silver, but at some point it'll turn. Gold diggers index (gdx) is really getting crushed as their profits evaporate.
Buya clue. Do you think the miners are getting crushed because physical is so much more valuable than spot?
Look at AGQ - its a story in how to leverage up your losses. SLV is a bullion ETF that doesn't rely on leverage or futures and it tracks spot silver very accurately. SLV will work down here if you accumulate slowly on weakness because the counter-trend rallies of 7 to 10 points will always come along even in a bear.
Dollar won't go much lower because everyone else (including China and now Japan) want their currencies cheap relative to the dollar. This is so they can sell their products at a good profit to the US market. I just don't buy the cheap dollar theory. The recent strengthening could continue for a while as Bank of Japan pounds the Yen down relative to the dollar. I figure Japan is seeing lots of inflation at the gas pump as they pay more in ever cheaper Yen. Hopefully we won't get wide-spread currency devaluations against the dollar, but Japan is hammering down the Yen towards five-year lows against the US dollar. South Korea is nervous, heck, lots of countries competing against Japan in the US for sales are getting nervous. The German auto makers aren't happy at all about the advantage being gained by Toyota/Lexus and Honda, Japan's stock market is soaring as the big export oriented companies all are looking good in Yen at least!
Its actually the futures market that drives the spot price for silver. SLV doesn't need futures as it just holds silver bars. Look at GLD and Paulsen with his billions invested in gold.
Net accumulation is net demand and net selling is net supply. Ingots sitting in a vault (neither bought nor sold) does not affect net supply/demand.
Japan and others want their currencies weak against the US Dollar because US sales are critical to many exporters. Everyone talking about the US dollar weakening will see others doing their own QE. Strong dollar hurts commodity prices. Gold and silver bear markets could have further to go, but evetually will lead to mine shut-downs and supply shrinkage.
We'll at least see another good 7-10 point bounce before we see any $15 handle. Nothing goes in straight lines lower, and silver certainly has bounces even in the south bound lane. Bounces to the 200 dma is a good target, although we usually top above it. The 200 dma is currently $29.29 and even in a bear market scenario that we have been in for over two years now, the declining 200 dma is very relevant. I don't see the bear dropping too much further, but these trends can last longer than one might think.
You just have to wait it out to see how much the BOJ does to lower the Yen. Even when they reach some target level, they will attempt to prevent the Yen from rising so going long is a debatable proposition to begin with! Still can't touch this one for now.
try silver went down 54% from 48 to 22. now you're trying to tell me your bear market is confirmed? man, you're slow. buy a clue! silver is ready for another counter-trend bounce of six to ten points if you ask me. the 25/26 gaps tells you there is no overhead resistance from here. we could always go lower first, but a bounce is coming. this assumes we're still in a two-plus year bear that you have so astutely identified. thanks for the bear market confirmation. i assume you'll confirm the next bull near the top!
You might be right about the teens, but I am accumulating a few here and there and will continue to do so as allowed. If nothing else, we'll get good bounces even if we continue falling. 48 to 22 says we could go lower, but an average down system will work well. Its ALREADY been creamed, there's not too much left to drop! I'll start buying more than a few in the teens if allowed. Gold looks good as it approaches miners all in costs of $1,100 or $1,200.
Thing is - no country wants their currency strong versus the US dollar. They all print money and take action to keep their currency cheap relative to the dollar. The stock market doesn't really look like a bubble on fundamental valuations. I would of course agree that at some point interest rates drift higher, but that too would help strengthen the dollar. In short, the dollar simply never seems to drop much. Look at the Yen, which has collapsed in value against the dollar because the BOJ is driving it down. I keep hearing about the dollar collapsing, but what we saw in the last crisis was everyone wants greenbacks when the #$%$ hits the fan. The dollar soared when the financial panic hit. I have been slowly accumulating silver recently, but this end of the world story sounds like all the other end of the world stories where they never pan out. They say it only happens once, so odds of its prediction being right are very limited!
Its not getting hold of kilo bullion bars that is the problem. Just not enough capacity to produce shiney coins from bullion bars. SLV reflects bullion spot prices, not shiney one ounce coin prices. Ask the miners, and they'll tell you there is no shortage of physical metal - they wish there was because their profit margins are getting whacked.