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Apache Corp. Message Board

gordonfan4life2 64 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Sep 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Negative NAV

    by silverbars Dec 18, 2014 11:43 AM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 3 hours ago Flag

    Its a great time to buy PSLV versus SLV. Typically we see a up to a 5% premium on PSLV and once in a while a tiny discount. I just switched from SLV to PSLV. When a significant premium to PSLV returns, I'll switch back to SLV. PSLV is a better mousetrap than SLV but they both track spot silver. With PSLV being a closed end fund, though, market makers don't issue new shares when a premium occurs. Of course, a significant discount won't occur because market makers can liquidate a basket of shares for the physical silver. PSLV is also unallocated and segregated silver kept at the Royal Canadian Mint. Tax advantages can also accrue.

  • Reply to

    You snooze, you lose

    by americaninbahrain Dec 14, 2014 12:46 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 10 hours ago Flag

    Hopefully they win again on the pitch today - they're on a roll and its getting interesting! Go Red Devils!

  • Reply to

    The Best of the Worst...

    by gordonfan4life2 22 hours ago
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 10 hours ago Flag

    Its the best gold miner. Obviously if you think gold is going down you won't want to buy a gold miner. I think end of year selling has been going on like last year and we'll get a bounce come 2015 but we'll see. I'm hardly a pumper on gold stocks, but GG is the best of a lousy bunch!

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 22 hours ago Flag

    GG is the best gold miner stock out there. However, the Gold Diggers indeX (GDX) paints a lousy picture of the industry. GG is worth a bet (bought some at $17.50 recently). We'll see if gold and GG ever get another bounce! GG will be around for a while with its very solid balance sheet and margins.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 23 hours ago Flag

    I had to switch from SLV to PSLV due to this opportunity. PSLV almost always trades at a premium of up to 5%. PSLV is the closest 'paper silver' comes to being the same as holding physical bullion yourself. Thank you, Mr. Market. The rule is simple, which is when PSLV's premium drops towards zero its a better choice than SLV. A discount for PSLV is extremely rare.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Dec 15, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    until it stops falling! Gotta love Gartner's comment - its true. Sometimes its best to just stay on the sidelines and let things play out. I own a tiny stake in USO with a tiny loss and I'm still way early. So is it $50 or $40 before the free-fall ends?! Probably best to wait and see!

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Dec 13, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    Straight down until it stops falling and starts climbing. So far it looks like a repeat. Stay light until the knife stops falling, then jump in big. This thing will just keep cratering but its better to get it over with quickly if you ask me. No water torture drip, drip, drip here. Find a bottom in the first half of 2015 and then blue skies from there.

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Dec 2, 2014 8:07 PM Flag

    All true, SLV is down from $48 to $15+ and the gold/silver ratio is in the upper range indicating silver is cheap relative to gold. Problem is this bear market pattern hasn't broken yet and commodities in general are all down sharply (even oil has joined the commodity bear market party). I have actually made a little trading silver since it broke down to the $27 range only because I've scaled up on the drops and sold the small bounces. I'm back for more down here and I'm just down a buck (average cost) and we should be able to get another small bounce. Thing is until the multi-year bear pattern is broken its very difficult to make much at all on these small occasional bounces. I keep playing the game but I always keep the stakes relatively small and am glad I have. Sooner or later silver will stop hitting lower lows and lower highs, but until it does I can't go 'big'. I would love to go 'all-in' down here and just hold 'em but its simply too dangerous until the chart pattern tells me this four year bear has ended. Its in the numbers though, this drop from $48 to $15 (so far) has to be mostly complete and silver ain't going to zero, so I can't help but think we're getting close to the ultimate bottom of this bear. Good luck! At least SLV is a whole lot safer to play down here than the miners who are losing their shirts.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Dec 1, 2014 8:41 AM Flag

    and now its up! Go figure!! Glad I just average in and out with small chunks. Panic lows with oil and the Swiss vote on gold holdings caused some real fireworks.

  • What a melt-down! Its hard to believe its down that much after dumping a point on Friday. Oh #$%$! Thank God I keep my bets relatively small !!

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Nov 28, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    Not hardly (unless their cash costs to produce oil exceeds oil prices). Venezuela is royally #$%$ off but if they stop producing and getting US dollars they'll just sink a lot faster than they already are. New development and exploration expenses will get cut first. The oil wells already pumping won't stop. We'll see new spending for deep water drilling, shale oil and tar sands get cut first, as they are the most expensive ways to get oil out of the ground.

  • gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Nov 17, 2014 10:17 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, I can't buy PBR on this dip. I made money on the previous dips and bounces, but with the fraud, the Brazilian government, and dropping crude prices I just can't buy any shares this time around. Too many things are all messing up at the time in a confluence of events. Russia, Venezuela and Brazil take it hard when oil falls, and its been falling like a rock lately. PBR looks like a complete disaster in the making!

  • Reply to

    Can you smell it?

    by sauriangate Nov 14, 2014 4:27 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Nov 14, 2014 9:26 PM Flag

    I hope its not a one day wonder. It was a great reversal day opening lower only to sprint to a much higher close on huge volume. The negative sentiment was so extreme recently that its almost sure to bounce at least for a counter-trend rally imo. The old low of $17.75 is the near-term upside first level of resistance.

  • Reply to

    Silver worthless well $1 maybe

    by daytrada1 Nov 12, 2014 10:39 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Nov 12, 2014 11:52 PM Flag

    Canadian Maples have $5 face value (Five Canadian Dollars). They actually start to trade with an implied put as the silver price drops. For this reason, I would prefer Canadian coins if I were to buy coins. SLV is a 99+% tracker for spot silver and is perfect for traders who trade paper instead of ingots. So much more efficient than taking delivery, storing, and delivering silver ingots. PSLV is great when the premium shrinks towards zero and AGQ is good but levered (twice the pain and twice the gain). I dabble in a few AGQ shares when silver as been crushed to new lows (like now). I still strongly prefer the unlevered SLV bullion fund, but I spike the punch bowl a little with a few AGQ shares at times like this. I have been very patient and slowly accumulating silver but somehow I think a bounce is coming soon - should be by the end of 2014 at the latest.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Nov 12, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    but if silver drops much more a Warren Buffett could come along and basically buy up the entire available inventory for a relatively small amount of money. He's done it before, but he only bought less than half the inventory before prices rose too much for him to continue accumulating. A big hedgie could buy close to half the inventory up with just $7 billion. Silver market's small size sets this thing up for a ride higher at some point imo. We could always continue dropping with gold, but the ability of one whale moving the entire global silver market becomes increasingly easy at these cheap prices.

  • Reply to

    Wow that _WAS_ breathtaking!

    by cifrocco Nov 7, 2014 4:03 PM
    gordonfan4life2 gordonfan4life2 Nov 8, 2014 8:22 PM Flag

    Yeah - after getting slammed from 29+ down to 17 we bounce to 20. This was a spring coil looking for gold to have a good day in order to pop and it finally got it on Friday. GG is the best of the worst industry - gold diggers!

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Nov 5, 2014 6:45 PM Flag

    I don't know how much longer this rout lasts, but everyone is getting slaughtered or getting out (or both). I'm down two points and slowly averaging in, but this drop is starting to make me think its time to scale up some. Silver miners are getting pancaked, recycling junk is way down. and sentiment is so incredibly low its not funny. We should be getting near another bottom soon.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Nov 5, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    as the Yen drops, the dollar goes higher, and commodities go lower. Blood is everywhere in the commodity streets - especially gold's cheap cousin silver.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Nov 3, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    Silver ain't going higher as long as gold keeps selling off. Silver is the beta dog that makes magnified moves and lately that has meant big down days.

  • gordonfan4life2 by gordonfan4life2 Nov 2, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    We'll see if its a one day wonder or the start of an uptrend.

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