There has already been a ton of downward pressure and calling bottoms in commodities is called guessing. My guess is we're near the bottom but probably not quite there yet. 2015 will see prices move around in the May - September growing season based on weather. Weather is always a wildcard. Tons of coffee was in storage and all the news was bad for pricing until Brazil experienced drought like weather and coffee doubled in a very short period of time. JO shot up from $20+ to $42. Grains have seen the same type of action. Weather is a wildcard, plain and simple, that can move prices a lot really quickly. That won't change.
The media tries to explain falling prices, and the expectation of a bumper crop fits the bill. As soon as prices start rising, they will try to explain that as well with a bullish story.
and silver gets crushed, I'll start spiking the punch bowl again with AGQ shares. When AGQ starts hitting new lows like right now, I start looking to buy little chunks, because the outsized bounces have always proved highly profitable (if scary) for me. Right now, silver (and finally gold) are both looking oversold and on the well smoked side, and with AGQ hitting new lows the stars are lining up again. Small, unlevered stake in SLV (added more at $18 today) but things are getting interesting now.
Trying to predict commodity prices has always been like throwing dice. It reminds me of coffee dropping to $1 a pound. JO got near $20. Then Brazil saw very dry conditions and JO pops to $42 in a very short period of time. Every bearish coffee report kept coming until the Brazil news hit, and then all those bearish reports meant nothing. This drop in corn/grains has been grueling over the past two years. My guess is we get spikes higher in 2015/2016 but this slide could last a while longer first. Slowly accumulating CORN and JJG on weakness down here. We could be swimming in corn soon!
I'll buy shares all the way down from here IF we see the $12s. I seriously doubt we see MANU with a market cap below $2 billion. The serious recent drop on the team's poor start and owners' secondary offering are creating opportunity imo. My guess is $14 and change is the best you could hope for realistically on this drop. MANU just has franchise power galore compared to the CLIPPERS!
Clippers go for $2 billion and MANU has a $2.5 billion market cap. It borders on ridiculous, but Balmer sure did pay top dollar for a NBA franchise that can't begin to compare with Manchester United. The valuation just starts to scream at $15 and this recent drop is clearly a buying opportunity for those who saw just under $20 but waited. The market cap says MANU is a bargain here and you should accumulate on weakness. I am as usual. I'm just more certain than ever that MANU has true value far in excess of what the market values it at here in the $15s.
More investors are piling into these funds recently. The very low grain prices have investors wondering where the bottom is - but more are thinking its at least getting near the bottom. I think its hard to miss if you average in slowly on weakness from this level and be patient. 2015/2016 should see spikes higher, but we'll see just how low we go first with this bumper crop harvest. Calling bottoms on commodity declines is called guessing, but we do know we'll continue to get spikes higher from time to time as well as declines. We do know we've seen a two year cycle down that looks like it should be done soon.
Gold is the Alpha dog and silver is the Beta dog of precious metals. If gold breaks to new lows, so will silver, plain and simple, only probably more so on the silver drop due to the high beta. Chart says $15 if support finally breaks this time. I average in to SLV from $20 on down slowly but I'll spike the punch bowl with some AGQ if the price plunges.
is now (in theory) nearly complete and we should see a significant run higher at some point over the next two years. I think we'll be complete on the downside with this year's harvest. We're probably near the bottom already but there could be more selling pressure left. I'm accumulating CORN and JJG slowly at these levels.
and the market cap of this ETF is growing. Corn is looking cheap and speculators are starting to place their bets. So far, the trend remains down. Of course, we know at some point things will turn around. Weather is the wild card.
MANU is valued quite reasonably considering the sponsor, tv and ticket revenues which just keep rising. Hopefully, MANU will achieve a European Championship entry next year.
We'll see if we continue drifting lower to the $18ish low or reverse. Gold usually leads the way higher or lower, but silver has the beta effect and gold is the alpha dog. As usual, I'm slowly accumulating SLV at $20 and below. Today was a buy at $19.06 and as usual I'll just play the beta. AGQ is interesting when silver gets nailed and is way oversold. Talk about beta on the bounces! I always stick with unleveraged ETFs unless we get nailed (SLV and/or PSLV). Right now I'm just in SLV.
Worthless degrees are worthless, and the US is tired of paying for it! ITT can't even file financial reports any more - what a joke! Live and learn - time to go back to school for another lesson! How long will these jokesters ship you a worthless diploma if they get paid thousands of dollars?! University of Phoenix is coming up soon! No offense - but sham on-line diplomas have been well documented for many years now.
Don't know, but after dropping for the past two years from $52+ to $26, we know CORN is most of the way through the decline. I suspect we could stay low until the focus begins on next year's crop and the uncertainties of the weather put a premium back in the pricing. Corn won't go to zero, and after dropping from $8+ a bushel to now close to $3.50 we can't have too much further to drop. Everyone is now expecting another bumper crop, so my guess is its largely already priced in at 3 1/2 versus 8. Nibbling at $26 but largely waiting because we could stay in a funk for at least a few more months.
I just started a very small position for now. We could be swimming in corn this fall and find the price either remains low or gets lower still - the trend is definitely down. However, corn prices won't go to zero and as the price goes towards $3 a bushel I have to wonder how much lower it can go. The soybean to corn ratio, now at 3.34, is nearly as high as its ever been in forty years, which also gives me pause on just how much downside is left in corn. I will look to add either by averaging in on further weakness or just waiting to see what the expected bumper crop does to prices. It might take a while to happen, but there is no doubt in my mind that corn will eventually get more rallies.
says corn is dirt cheap compared to soybeans. We'll see how this plays out, but the ratio is near 3.2 which is at peak levels according to the forty year charts. Corn is getting mauled as they are expecting to be swimming in it with this year's harvest (back to back bumper crops) and very low cattle feed demand. Sooner or later, though, prices have to be getting near a bottom. Probably not there yet, with more pain to come, but I don't see corn going much below $3 (if it manages to get there).
No chance of BK with their balance sheet and punk profits, but with no same store sales growth (or even negative growth), this stock probably stays in the crapper for a while.