Yep - that's what is hurting the stock right now. MANU will see a revenue drop if it gets left out of the top four, and this is now the expectation of the shareholders. Some selling is to be expected based on this negative development.
with SLV - it tends to leap over and under it but does not seem to want to trade at it! Gold and silver have caught a trade higher and we're popping over $20 with another gap.
US dollars will always buy stuff. Third world countries are one thing, but the US dollar is what everyone always runs to in times of stress. There will be inflation over time, as we've seen in past, but the fed infusions have been more to avoid deflation. Parking in cash is not a problem - its just not a long-term solution either.
They been saying that for years now, but we keep printing lower lows. Maybe some year they do stop printing lower lows, but I can't fight a four year bear. PBR and VALE have both been in the Brazilian soup, but VALE shows more signs of life than PBR. Guess they aren't owned by the Brazilian government! Even Juan Valdeez and JO have popped!
PBR is in a bear market four years running, with a series of lower lows and lower highs. Its broken the most recent old low of $12 and we'll see where it ends up (10.65 so far). We'll get bounces off the lower lows, but I got to respect this died in the wool bear until the pattern of lower lows is broken.
PBR has been an absolute dog for the past four years, but every time it sets a new lower low we get a nice pop back to the 200 dma. The old low of $12 was recently broken and amid this panic and blood in the streets we will set another lower low ($10.65 so far), to be followed by another nice bounce. The last pop from 12 to 18 was good for 50%. Next pop could be from 10 to 15 for another 50% gain.. Even under a continuing bear market you get tradable bounces with PBR.
That's how PBR sets a new lower low. That's what we're seeing now. Old low of $12 has been broken and so far the new low is $10.63! The nice thing is that each time we get another panic low is we get a nice pop higher. Last pop was from 12 to 18 (50% pop ain't bad at all). The swing trader sees an unmistakable pattern of lower lows followed by pops to the declining 200 dma. This bear pattern has been going on for four years since PBR hit the $50s towards the end of 2010. We'll see what the next lower low ultimately becomes but we're getting ready for a rally when the longs are singing soprano and puking on their shoes!
We must be looking at different charts. This sucker has been going steadily lower with its 200 dma for years now. The past lower lows have been 20, 17,14 and the most recent old low of $12. That is a pattern of lower lows. The most recent lower highs were 20 and 18. The clear pattern is to get a 40 to 50+% bounce off these lower lows. We're in the process right now of setting the next new lower low. So far its $10.63 - panic selling with blood in the streets is what we're seeing right now. This is the sentiment along with heavy selling pressure that sets up the 40+% rallies. This is when you look to accumulate as a swing trader.
with gold a little above its low. Sooner or later we'll break out or down from this level, and its probably starting to get sooner! Its been fairly boring for months now in this 18 1/2 to 19 1/2 range.
Starting to unravel? More like has already unraveled to another new panic low! That was one quick chop lower from 18 to 10 and change! It may not be finished declining just yet, but a snap-back rally is building. The chart on this dog is unmistakable for a swing trader. I bought some at 10 3/4 and will add around 10 and 9 1/4 if allowed. A bounce back to the declining 200 dma is the minimal upside price target. Its currently $15. The pattern of lower lows and lower highs has been going on for over four years now! That's a bear market that must be respected! That's why I'll only buy this sucker at new panic lows - like right now!! Last lower high was $18 and the next one is probably $14ish.
The stock chart is clear - we very well could set a new lower low of $10 before the next rally to say $14. The point is that every time we set lower lows we get very profitable swing trades higher. I'll slowly accumulate a few shares starting at 10 and change and wait for the next bounce. Last bounce from the old low of $12 to $18 was god for a nice 50% pop.
but the pattern of bounces off of new lower lows is predictable. We are setting up for the next bounce as we sink to new lower lows. Last bounce from 12 to 18 (50% pop) was a nice one, We should get another pop from $9 or $10 imo. The 200 dma is the target for bounces, and its currently just above $15 and is declining. I would guess our next bounce goes to $14 before rolling over again. Accumulate slowly is what I started doing at 10 3/4. Keep the stakes small since this is speculative.
but Skippy gets in a good jump every time it gets pounded to a new lower low. We are getting pounded to a new low of probably $9 or $10 but then we'll be due for a bounce to $14. It sounds crazy but this bear pattern keeps repeating despite the plunges we see. This last toilet plunger has gone from $18 to $10 and change and could crumble a while longer. Brazil and the BRIC countries ain't lookin' so hot!
Of course JP Morgan holds tons of silver - they make the market in London with a few other large banks. Because they hold tons of physical silver, they are naturally long the metal just like a silver stacker at home. This is why they tend to be net short in the paper futures market - it's called a hedge.
until proven otherwise. We keep seeing lower lows and lower highs until we don't. Silver will follow gold's direction, and if gold sees another new low, silver probably will too. Note - I am accumulating SLV on weakness slowly in the teens. When the miners have trouble making money, you know that the price has come down enough to start impacting production. Investment is fleeing the industry.
It looks like POT and MOS have already bottomed out around $29 and $40. If prices do in fact stabilize and start rising again, there is little doubt that significant upside exists for these stocks. Until we see signs of improvement in the potash market, however, prices probably remain depressed. The dividend pays you to wait with Potash. 4 1/2% dividend at $31 a share looks attractive for the wide-moat global fert leader. Oligopolies can start price wars but they usually don't last as all the players tend to suffer. Irrational economic behavior tends to be self-correcting, and Uralkali has become irrational.
It won't go that low before we get another nice rally of 40 or 50%. I guess we could go to $9 or $10 for the next new low is set and we get a rally. Emerging market issues are really whacking PBR and could possibly push it even a tad lower before the next bounce towards $8. But then it'll bounce to the next lower high of probably $14. Sentiment is so extremely negative that reflex bounces higher in a bear stock tend to be juiced after big sell-downs. Sentiment is so bad with PBR right now that you know very sharp quick counter-trend rallies will be seen off these lower lows (20, 17, 14, 12, guessing $9 or $10 is the next one). You basically can make mindless small buys on weakness once you hit a new lower low and profit nicely on the next bounce. If you buy small blocks near $11, then $10, then $9, then maybe even $8, you still profit nicely on the bounce to $12 or $14 or $16 or whatever it ends it being. Last nice bounce was from 12 to 18 for a near 50% ride higher.
around 10 based on the most recent lows of 20, 17, 14 and $12. We will continue to see decent bounces off the lower lows of this 4 year bear chart. Its a sick chart, but PBR is not going anywhere anytime soon and the bounces should prove to be very profitable. I missed the last ride from 12 to 18 but I'll be around for the next ride.