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GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc. Message Board

gothedistance723 27 posts  |  Last Activity: May 25, 2016 4:17 PM Member since: Feb 17, 2005
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  • gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 25, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    Based on today's action I think the shorts are providing support. The longer CFMS holds up the more pressure on some of the shorts to cover. They have to be kicking themselves for not covering on at around $5.00 on May 13 when they had panic selling and massive volume. Now they will have to cover as the stock creeps higher. My guess is $8 to $9 range possible near term. Doubt this breaks above $9 though barring news on new CEO or some other material event.

  • There were 4,333,900 shares short before the Q! CC debacle and 50% plunge in CFMS on May 13. I would have thought the shorts would have covered in mass given the gift the market was giving them. The number of shares short in the latest report shows 4,105,500 still short. What were they thinking to not cover when the stock was under $5.00? Did they think it was going to zero. Anyway, the large short position should provide support for CFMS.

  • Reply to

    Is this

    by shoenfield May 23, 2016 5:13 PM
    gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 24, 2016 10:51 AM Flag

    The Market charges tuition for the lessons it teaches. We all just have to avoid repeating the same courses. Maybe if Bernie Sanders gets elected the Market will become tuition free. That would reduce both our student and margin debt.

  • gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 21, 2016 8:01 PM Flag

    Grandjean, thank you very much for your feedback. If you can run around 10 minutes pace with two total knee replacements I should be okay with a partial. I will be patient. You have given me confidence and inspired me. Now if we can just get CFMS's share price to recover we'll all be happy. I'm afraid the recovery of the stock price will take as long as the knee. All the best, gothedistance.

  • gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 21, 2016 5:37 AM Flag

    grandjean, did you have partial or full knee replacements? You had off the shelf for one knee and conformis for the other. Are you saying recovery from conformis was quicker? How long was the recovery process for the conformis knee? How long until you were biking, hiking, jogging again? How much are you able to jog? How far can you jog? Are you able to push it, to actually run? Thanks for any feedback. I get my partial knee in early July.

  • Reply to

    Sr VP of Sales bought 1600 shares at $6.2

    by botk73 May 19, 2016 5:49 PM
    gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 20, 2016 11:46 AM Flag

    Maybe 1600 isn't many shares from your perspective but the Sr. VP Sales is on the front lines and knows first hand how CFMS's products are performing. He's seeing now what will appear in Q3 operating results. Have to assume things are going well in the field if not in the stock market.

  • gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 20, 2016 6:29 AM Flag

    Conformis makes the procedure easier for the surgeon and the outcome better for the patient. Jointsrme argues there is no discernable difference between outcomes with off the shelf and.custom fit implants. Logic tells me a custom fit has to be better than off the shelf.

  • gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 19, 2016 4:25 PM Flag

    So, jointsrme, are you saying conformis does not have a competitive advantage with the custom fit? It's just hard for me to believe an off the shelf implant will work as well as one that is a replica of the patient's actual knee. What is your view on the Stryker robotic knee surgery solution? They are still using an off the shelf implant. What is the market's view of that technology? Do people in the industry see it as a game changer? Stryker has already delayed the launch once. The robot has to be guided by the surgeon. There are training issues involved that might make adoption of the $1 million device slow to happen.

  • gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 17, 2016 4:35 PM Flag

    jointsrme, assume you sell joints - hips and knees???? The competitive edge CFMS has is custom fit and therefore less bone loss and complications after surgery. Also, easier job for surgeons since everything fits like a glove. I am not just a new shareholder, I am also a patient and am scheduled for my CFMS partial knee in early July. I have a top surgeon who wouldn't use CFMS products if he didn't have absolute confidence in them. When I had my CAT scan last week the tech told me comformis is totally taking over the knee replacement activity. Even a hospital admin person who does classes for patients scheduled for joint replacements mentioned conformis as coming on strong and becoming dominant for knees. The voluntary recall killed momentum but in my little world it appears CFMS is gaining traction and heading in the right direction. The company should gain market share over time. Time will tell.

  • Reply to

    Back to 7 in the blink of an eye !

    by jenocash May 16, 2016 10:23 AM
    gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 16, 2016 11:01 AM Flag

    $7.00 makes sense but it will take time. Down is always faster. They say stocks take the elevator down and the stairs back up. Anyone who bought on Friday at $5 or less already has a 10%+ gain and some will take it. A huge wildcard is there were over 4.3 million shares short before last week's debacle. Some surely covered but those who didn't might be feeling pressure if CFMS can work its way higher for the next week or two. Should give the stock some support short term. After that, fundamentals have to kick in.

  • gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 13, 2016 4:08 PM Flag

    My guess new CEO search will take at least 3 months. No quick fixes. Will be positive when it does happen but process will take time.

  • Reply to

    $15 Billion joint replacement market

    by ddbikessamsara May 13, 2016 3:35 PM
    gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 13, 2016 4:01 PM Flag

    Knee replacement market is $4 billion. CFMS withdrew hip product from FDA consideration for whatever reasons. Maybe wanted to focus on knees and just didn't have resources to pursue hips and go through rigorous FDA review process. Anyway, by all accounts, CFMS has a superior product but that didn't matter to the market today. Yesterday's release was a perfect storm. Lingering impact of voluntary recall, order flow for legacy products flattening out, uncertain future order flow, reduced guidance, and CEO stepping aside. It doesn't get much worse than that.

  • Reply to

    Pick today's closing price contest

    by gothedistance723 May 13, 2016 9:25 AM
    gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 13, 2016 12:38 PM Flag

    Many shorts have already covered. There were 4.3 million shares short going into this debacle. Trading volume at of 12:35 is over 8.3 million shares. This was a gift for shorts. How much more downside is there at $5.00 assuming CFMS does not go out of business. Once the shorts cover the question becomes who else is willing to buy and why. Think it will take several quarters for DFMS to get back on track. In the meantime probably trades between $5.00 and $8.00 but who knows.

  • gothedistance723 by gothedistance723 May 13, 2016 9:25 AM Flag

    Pick today's closing price. If you win the contest you get absolutely nothing.

    My guess is $7.00 close with a low of $4.97 on very heavy volume this morning.

  • We have to be approaching levels where it makes sense for shorts to cover unless they believe CFMS is going to fail as a business. Most recent data over 4.3 million shares short or 12.4% of float. If I were short I would look to cover either now or at $5.00. Likelihood company will fail remote. They have enough cash for nearly 2 years based on quarterly burn rate of $15 million. Revenues suffered a set back due to voluntary recall that had to affect demand. It also gave larger competitors the opportunity to create FUD regrading CFMS. That should fade over next several quarters. Probably a good longer term buy around $5.00 but will probably be a long time before CFMS sees $10 again.

  • Grandjean, one of you message caught my attention. I was a lifelong runner and have trauma arthritis. Can't run and now walking a challenge. You seem to have had great experience with the CFMS knee. Can you share a little of your before and after experience. My surgery is scheduled for early July. Had CAT scan this morning and tech told me they are doing a lot of conformis scans. Said conformis has totally taken over the knee related work they are doing at major radiology center that services the local hospitals and surgeons. My surgeon a top knee guy and he was an early adopter of CFMS implants. He wouldn't recommend it if it wasn't really good. My dream is to be able to run or at least jog again. So, you're talking long fast paced walks and jogging again?

  • Reply to

    $6.25 limit order in

    by grandjean8754 May 12, 2016 5:10 PM
    gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 12, 2016 5:54 PM Flag

    Well, there is a heavy short position out there. Maybe some shorts will cover and look for better opportunities. That would give it some support. Problem is, there is no near term bullish catalyst for CFMS. Think it's dead money for a long time. Fundamentals will have to kick in rest of year. Expect tomorrow to be really ugly at the open.

  • Reply to

    $6.25 limit order in

    by grandjean8754 May 12, 2016 5:10 PM
    gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 12, 2016 5:33 PM Flag

    Expect to see a $5.00 handle tomorrow morning. Will take a long time to recover. Down is faster.

  • Reply to

    Horrible Guidance

    by usmademerich May 12, 2016 4:19 PM
    gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 12, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    He's not a good business manager. Orders tailing off for products other than total knee a major concern. Voluntary recall last fall a serious issue. Overall, not good. This thing might get cut in half tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    Horrible Guidance

    by usmademerich May 12, 2016 4:19 PM
    gothedistance723 gothedistance723 May 12, 2016 4:24 PM Flag

    A train wreck. Market obviously knew long before close today. Looking for new CEO

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