" Hopefully they have some temp workers lined up. "
I don't know about Big Spring, but when the Union went out on Shell Deer Park, they sent in management employees to run the refinery. And union hardcore bragged about booby-trapping the cat cracker to blow when the managers were running it. Just what I've heard..... it will be interesting to watch if they go out.
"9Not exact words but close."
Also not the exact words, but a week ago an insider was heard saying their sand biz was solid and they have not seen the downturn being experienced elsewhere. I suppose that same commentary might show up in any recent presentations, if any....but I have not looked for it. Anyway, the silence is deafening, and numbers are numbers, probably pretty good numbers considering Cramer is chewing on our hind leg. You can always tell when he is working to get long...or waiting for a better price to cover.
Is strange. Must have been a head fake squeeze. Big short probably unloaded more shares. Guess we are going back to 10 soon. Glad we are all smart now ... after being fooled at least 3 times each. .... after the trip to 10 we will go to 62 where the company is sold.
They are currently calculating the CHUB value of the purchase. That's the "Chunk Hong Under the Bus" quotient. ...What is the minimum they can offer and still get the shareholders to agree to take their lowball offer instead of putting up another day with the manipulation. So it looks like time is getting short to insult them.... who is them anyway? Chinese Nazis? Chucky's offspring? Decendents of great Uncle Khan? Or just Insider groupies and other relatives?
Right Jim.... but my new year's resolution prevents me from chiming in on LINE.... you know, I'm trying not to say anything at all. But there are good companies and bad companies and unfortunately most investors can't tell which is which when it comes to MLPs. So it's no wonder a small handful of horrible managers can fool so many people with financial gimmicks... or at least enough folks to prop up their units with bs when the need arrives. Being upside down on half my units here is sort of positive, I'm watching and waiting and measuring the company's response to the market disaster which will determine if I keep the units or invest elsewhere. This is, after all, a puppy. Lets see if it's paper trained..... Anyway, I tend to agree about buying back units. That seems like the best way to buy reserves if oil hovers in the $40 - 50 range. Waiting on a great prospect might be a waste of time. Bottoms don't always last long enough to make zombies out of the weaklings.
"....go by without doing anything."
That's the main point to explore. We just assume something will be done. Lot's of fear weighing down the decision makers. I've seen a number of managements sit fat during their industry's turmoil because it was the safe thing to do...nothing. Everyone commenting here is correct. We need a good balance? How about trim the distribution, buy some shares in the MARKET, and pick through the carnage to buy some solid production property, all in limited quantities? And then sit on a pile of unused LOC.
Mainly, I don't want to bail out LINE. I don't want to act like LINE. I don't want to operate like LINE. No more bs. Leave that for the overextended MLPs. They need to pick a solid high ground to operate from and provide regular guidance for the unit holders to vote their money and make well reasoned investment decisions. Why? Because we are the only ones that count while the Saudi's and Obamites trash the global crude business. Anybody get a memo stating when this will end? I didn't. In fact, they keep pointing out that until we shut in the shale they will ruin the American oil business. And those of us who weathered the '80s bust can still recite the oilman's prayer, while hanging onto a cliff by our fingernails, blind drunk.
There is a monetary conspiracy behind everything. Embrace the conspiracy and make money. Pretty good odds these units will double from here and will yield 14% while bagholders wait. I'd say that seems like a pretty good reward/risk numbers.
Today I've been taking bites of various oversold stocks. On Friday I will buy more.. Just watch out is all I'm saying because just when you think it will go down some more, it won't. Many crude victims are down too far too fast. This one might catch up with their delivery schedule about the time crude climbs out of the dumpster. Anyway, the 2014 bad news here is NY politicians haven't been greased and the good news is they will find a way in 2015.
Really? I never heard of a NY rig count. You sure they don't just skim the oil from their waterways or slant drill the bordering states? Say, I wonder if they also banned the importation of oil from fractured wells? And what about selling oil in containers larger then 12 oz.? Seems government there has moved into the entertainment business....stand-up comedy.
Stacey actually said a lot..... write down of inventory is a non-cash charge and does not impact the cash available to distribute. However it would reduce Line 1 on the K-1 and we would not pay as much tax on earnings. I sure won't loose sleep over that. As to the cat cracker not being on fire, maybe they not running at capacity or they are making changes and they are not fully ramped at the moment. Or it could be a bit of humor.
Nothing wrong with Seeking Alpha. And of course articles are either positive or negative.... But lots of good info usually. Better then being dumb about the stocks you hope to make money from. Besides, these units are up about 15% in the last few days so maybe the clouds are clearing up and there will be much more Seeking Alpha table pounding for HCLP! Reminds me of the little engine that could. Merry Christmas!
I couldn't say when it will let up. It feeds on itself.
Based on the current price and all the risks of ownership, I would guess the distributions will be about 37 cents each quarter. That gives us a 12% yield and fits the known facts. Hopefully we are not fighting a disruptive hedge-wind since that is a wildcard not quantified.
"I think that the more immediate danger is that the marking down of the value of crude oil will negatively affect this quarters earnings."
I was hoping somebody with refinery op experience would stop by and enlighten us all. At the rate crude has moved down it looks like a painful dash on a treadmill for those buying the upstream crude. Must be a panic to move it through the refinery and out to the buyers before the spread is lost. Or do we have purchase contracts from ALJ? Maybe not being integrated gives us a competitive edge. Owning the whole vertical pipeline must be rough with all the inventory in each segment losing value while you try to process and sell it. There, I feel better now, I think we will weather the storm better then most.
"I will wait at this point."
Maybe today was the bottom and maybe not. Stupid me just knows one thing... that low was TODAY's low.
But I'm pretty sure no fat lady is going to sing the all clear.
A switch to monthly distributions is a good way to scale down distribution expectations and that might solve this sort of premature sell-off disaster.... the bundled insanity followed by binge greeding.
Of course "the price drop is due to small retail investors simultaneously trying to dump a thinly traded stock?"
.. in response to a dilutive drop down requiring an unknown capital dilution. I guess they will adjust the market price of the units so it is "minimally dilutive" when they close? Obviously that will be priced by an impartial 3rd party. (right!) So why should it be dilutive at all? I don't see other companies bidding on Krotz Springs. Why would we be picking up assets which are not accretive to real earnings and distributable cash? Not to mention maybe some of us own this because it is a one pony trick!
If someone wants to make more money they should buy more units. ...
That was my IRA shares. Gone. I voluntarily shot them at the bottom of the moment. Jury is still out deliberating about my taxable shares. I bought them too cheap I guess. I'm really sure I don't like the wording of the rather vague bs about paying for the refinery in shares. Duh... we shrimp own 19% and they own 81%. The less the units are worth the more we pay them for the right to maintain their refinery. Think that sort of hooey is a deal breaker in my book of level playing fields. They still shoot horses don't they..... did we lie down in the middle of the race track and beg for a ride to the rendering plant? We better hear something from the bozos working for us....... time is short...........
"What is the Capex involved?"
I think it falls into the "it is what it is" category. We only just finished up a tough year as unit holders. At least we now know why units have been stagnant lately.
On the positive side, as much as I hate buying ops, getting a good one usually results in some personal gain. We will double our throughput and only pay a fraction of our current market cap. This south of 19 might be like last years south of 12.... but the market doesn't get it yet.....