Really? I never heard of a NY rig count. You sure they don't just skim the oil from their waterways or slant drill the bordering states? Say, I wonder if they also banned the importation of oil from fractured wells? And what about selling oil in containers larger then 12 oz.? Seems government there has moved into the entertainment business....stand-up comedy.
Stacey actually said a lot..... write down of inventory is a non-cash charge and does not impact the cash available to distribute. However it would reduce Line 1 on the K-1 and we would not pay as much tax on earnings. I sure won't loose sleep over that. As to the cat cracker not being on fire, maybe they not running at capacity or they are making changes and they are not fully ramped at the moment. Or it could be a bit of humor.
Nothing wrong with Seeking Alpha. And of course articles are either positive or negative.... But lots of good info usually. Better then being dumb about the stocks you hope to make money from. Besides, these units are up about 15% in the last few days so maybe the clouds are clearing up and there will be much more Seeking Alpha table pounding for HCLP! Reminds me of the little engine that could. Merry Christmas!
I couldn't say when it will let up. It feeds on itself.
Based on the current price and all the risks of ownership, I would guess the distributions will be about 37 cents each quarter. That gives us a 12% yield and fits the known facts. Hopefully we are not fighting a disruptive hedge-wind since that is a wildcard not quantified.
"I think that the more immediate danger is that the marking down of the value of crude oil will negatively affect this quarters earnings."
I was hoping somebody with refinery op experience would stop by and enlighten us all. At the rate crude has moved down it looks like a painful dash on a treadmill for those buying the upstream crude. Must be a panic to move it through the refinery and out to the buyers before the spread is lost. Or do we have purchase contracts from ALJ? Maybe not being integrated gives us a competitive edge. Owning the whole vertical pipeline must be rough with all the inventory in each segment losing value while you try to process and sell it. There, I feel better now, I think we will weather the storm better then most.
"I will wait at this point."
Maybe today was the bottom and maybe not. Stupid me just knows one thing... that low was TODAY's low.
But I'm pretty sure no fat lady is going to sing the all clear.
A switch to monthly distributions is a good way to scale down distribution expectations and that might solve this sort of premature sell-off disaster.... the bundled insanity followed by binge greeding.
Of course "the price drop is due to small retail investors simultaneously trying to dump a thinly traded stock?"
.. in response to a dilutive drop down requiring an unknown capital dilution. I guess they will adjust the market price of the units so it is "minimally dilutive" when they close? Obviously that will be priced by an impartial 3rd party. (right!) So why should it be dilutive at all? I don't see other companies bidding on Krotz Springs. Why would we be picking up assets which are not accretive to real earnings and distributable cash? Not to mention maybe some of us own this because it is a one pony trick!
If someone wants to make more money they should buy more units. ...
That was my IRA shares. Gone. I voluntarily shot them at the bottom of the moment. Jury is still out deliberating about my taxable shares. I bought them too cheap I guess. I'm really sure I don't like the wording of the rather vague bs about paying for the refinery in shares. Duh... we shrimp own 19% and they own 81%. The less the units are worth the more we pay them for the right to maintain their refinery. Think that sort of hooey is a deal breaker in my book of level playing fields. They still shoot horses don't they..... did we lie down in the middle of the race track and beg for a ride to the rendering plant? We better hear something from the bozos working for us....... time is short...........
"What is the Capex involved?"
I think it falls into the "it is what it is" category. We only just finished up a tough year as unit holders. At least we now know why units have been stagnant lately.
On the positive side, as much as I hate buying ops, getting a good one usually results in some personal gain. We will double our throughput and only pay a fraction of our current market cap. This south of 19 might be like last years south of 12.... but the market doesn't get it yet.....
"the stock is following oil right now.....to me its that simple."
Right. For now traders are making swing trade money. I think the lower oil goes the more sand will get sold. And I can't wait to go back to driving the garaged guzzler with the big V8. Demand, demand, demand.
"based on the negative outlook"
Self correcting problem. If OPEC chokes back this month, maybe for the first time in almost forever the Railroad Commission will lower the allowable. That would be interesting. Problem solved everywhere. I wonder how hard the operators are pulling all those new West Texas wells.
Being reasonable I sort of agree with Cramer, something smells fishy. GS has reused the fish wrapper too many times. Would the serious investor hold'em or fold'em on a GS prediction? Many gladly folded and others joining them probably figure GS is making a dent whether or not their call is bs.
As for me, I look at our distribution and wonder if our coverage ratio is too high. Maybe others are thinking the same. .... we did set a blistering pace to the bottom today.
"I do plan to buy back after the big blow-off."
I think you missed that blow off. Which blow off are you referring to?
Distribution announcement probably tomorrow....the last one came on the 16th. I expect the distribution to be up and guidance up.... not good if you are waiting for a blow off.
" he is a trade on today's news kind of guy"
True, but he has friends who tells him stuff. I wouldn't doubt DC is behind this rope-a-dope oil bash. Probably GS dreamed up this way to bring oil down before the Nov OPEC meeting. Cramer and other talking heads all got their memo. Sure oil could go to 83..... just park a few oil-burning navy ships, put Cramer on it, and watch how low he can talk it. Anyway, I'm here to collect the distributions so Cramer is really just p oo on others' shoes....
It would be nice if they caught everybody off-guard with an early announcement after the bell tomorrow. Of course nice things never happen in real life but if they really are making the money we think they are, a $0.70 distribution would be about fine with me. It would cure the little pimples popping up everywhere.
So what did the fibs say? I didn't calc that. Guess I should but I figure it's buy where ever we are. Must'a done 67% anyway. Love these cash ops
LOL. Yes, you told us and told us at 59. I don't recall anyone spewing at you at $59. I said to buy at 18 in March of 2013 but did you?
"Hence, the oil companies will drill even if the price of oil drops to maintain the lease."
A lot are expiring. Could be lots of reasons but it's not a drill pipe shortage because I've seen a lot of it on the road lately. Maybe a freighter load came in to the port or prices are set to go up, But rigs are drilling. I just don't think they can drill it all to hold the leases.