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Corning Inc. Message Board

goutah3006 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 22, 2016 1:15 PM Member since: Nov 29, 2004
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  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Apr 22, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    Did Prana ever publish the detailed results of the IMAGINE open-label extension trial? They said they'd release some sort of white paper about it, but I haven't noticed one. Did I miss that? Also, given that nearly three years have elapsed since the end of dosing for the Huntington's Phase IIa trial (the dosing ended in the summer of 2013), how many years do you think it will be before Prana begins another Huntington's clinical trial? I estimate January 2017 at the earliest. Which means, assuming one year of dosing, we'll see results in summer of 2018 at the earliest. This scenario is based on the assumption that the clinical hold gets lifted by the middle of summer 2016, which may or may not happen.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Mar 31, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    It usually takes Yahoo! a while to catch up on details like that, especially with nano-cap companies. Two years have elapsed since the results of the Reach2HD and IMAGINE trials were released, and Prana has not announced plans for any further clinical trials of PBT2.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Mar 19, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    It will be interesting to see what he says. Companies generally don't use investor conferences to disclose major news items for the first time. If Prana already has news from the FDA about the clinical hold being lifted, they would issue a press release immediately rather than sitting on this information until the conference. Ditto for a partnership. These sorts of conference presentations are usually a rehash of existing information, with a good spin added to the mix. Rarely does one see major previously unannounced news presented out of the blue at such events.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Vast Wasteland

    by copper725 Mar 14, 2016 8:40 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Mar 15, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    "All the long term investors are still posting here." That would include me. I've owned Prana for a decade or so. The guy I miss is Whale, who used to post good skeptical stuff here. I think he actually owned a few shares at one point. He wasn't a basher, and he was highly knowledgeable about neuroscience.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Mar 10, 2016 7:01 PM Flag

    The reverse split was expected, so I don't see why there was a selling spree. However, it didn't take much of a selling spree to drive the share price down a lot, simply because there aren't many people wanting to buy shares at the moment. I certainly would not short the stock, despite my "sell" rating, because there's always a chance that good news could make the share price go up a lot. A beaten-down stock is not a good stock to short (unless one knows some sort of insider news that's disastrous that hasn't been made public yet, and I know of no such news for Prana).

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Mar 9, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    Well, at least we know that someone at Prana HQ is showing up at the office and reading their mail. By the way, Prana still owes us a white paper detailing and analyzing the results of the open-label IMAGINE extension. Such a paper was promised in last year's annual report, if I recall correctly. Maybe it came out and I missed it, but I don't recall seeing a press release about it. Has anyone seen that paper? Prana management tends to over-promise and under-deliver.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Mar 6, 2016 4:20 PM Flag

    I've focused on Prana's science for nearly a decade. The science is interesting, but the science has yet to prove that any of Prana's compounds are significantly beneficial to humans. There's a scientific procedure for that, called "human clinical trials", and the trials thus far have not been sufficient to persuade regulators to approve any of Prana's drugs, nor have they been sufficient to persuade Big Pharma to partner with Prana. Potential investors are waiting on the sidelines for further clinical efficacy results, which won't be forth coming anytime soon, if ever. It's entirely possible that PBT2 is indeed a wonder drug, but we won't know this without further trials. And no trials have been announced. Two years have passed since the results were released for the IMAGINE and Reach2HD trials.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Mar 6, 2016 12:57 PM Flag

    Indeed, the fall from double-digit dollars to double-digit pennies occurred for good reasons. Of course, the stock could go back up to double-digit dollars on clinical results showing a compelling level of efficacy, but such results are unlikely to happen anytime soon, if ever. Under the best-case scenario, the next efficacy results would become available in mid-2018 at the earliest.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • With a company like this, the possibility always exists that significant good news could come out when you least expect it. When the price has been beaten down as much as it has been with Prana, such news could cause the price to spike a lot in percentage terms, which could lead to huge losses if you'd shorted the stock when it was low. I've never shorted a stock myself, but I know people who've made a lot of money by shorting. Such people are very, very careful about which companies they short, and at what price they short them. None of them would short a company like Prana at its current price unless they were privy to some sort of devastating information that was not yet public. Since I'm not privy to any such information about Prana, I refuse to even consider shorting it under the present circumstances.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Half-year report / news release

    by outland234 Feb 26, 2016 9:05 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Feb 29, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    Prana appears to have enough money to last a while at the current burn rate, as a sort of zombie company, but probably not enough to conduct any further clinical trials with the possible exception of a Phase I for PBT434. And there continues to be no news on the status of the clinical hold, aside from "we're still working on it".

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Feb 23, 2016 10:58 AM Flag

    Well, it will be interesting to see whether the half-year report contains any useful information about the status of the clinical hold. And if it contains useful information, it will be interesting to see whether it's favorable or unfavorable. We won't know it until we read it.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    High Fnance on the ASX

    by copper725 Feb 18, 2016 8:20 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Feb 18, 2016 2:46 PM Flag

    Speaking of which, when does the "grace period" expire on NASDAQ? I seem to recall that Prana has 6 months to get the share price above $1.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Feb 15, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    Great list, Bob Barker! Here are some additional famous bag-holder lines, along with my commentary:

    "A partnership deal with Big Pharma is imminent." [People have been saying this for the past eight years, and still no partnership.]
    "The FDA will lift the clinical hold soon." [People have been saying this ever since the clinical hold was announced, but nobody can read the mind of the FDA.]
    "Copper is a (fill in the blank)." [Bagholders hurl ad hominem attacks at Copper because they're unable to argue with the content of his comments.]
    "It can't go any lower because it's trading close to the company's cash value!" [Prana's cash is not a useful metric for long-term value because the cash is evaporating on a daily basis and no new cash is flowing in to take its place.]
    "Caring for Alzheimer's patients is extremely expensive." [This observation is true but sheds no light on the key question: Does Prana have an effective treatment for Alzheimer's?]

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Feb 10, 2016 8:30 PM Flag

    Can anyone explain to me why a Big Pharma company would want to have a partnership with Prana at this point? People have been talking about a partnership for the better part of a decade, but no partnership has emerged.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Feb 2, 2016 1:07 PM Flag

    I does indeed appear that Kempler will be giving a presentation at this conference. We cannot infer anything fro this other than the fact that Kempler at least acknowledges that Prana needs to raise more money. It has been a long time since Prana has presented at an investor conference. Whether this is because the top-tier conferences haven't invited Prana, or whether it's because Prana has not been interested in presenting, I cannot say. I'm glad that Prana is once again trying to promote itself to potential investors. But I will be surprised if they generate much interest unless, of course, the clinical hold gets lifted.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Feb 1, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    Prana's management does a much better job of "scaring people away" from putting money into this stock than does anyone on this message board. If Prana's management were to provide a plausible and somewhat detailed plan for surmounting the obstacles that the company faces, I'd consider adding to my position at the current price. For example, they might issue a press release explaining exactly what's going on with the clinical hold and what they think needs to be done to get the hold lifted and explaining why it has taken so long. Then they could explain how they intend to use the remaining cash and how much additional cash they'll need to do a Phase III if and when the clinical hold gets lifted. And then they might explain their long-term plan regarding Alzheimer's and how much it will cost to execute that plan and what a realistic timeframe might be.

    Instead of doing this, management remains silent while the company's cash evaporates. People with cash on the sidelines are understandably nervous about putting money into a company whose management does nothing to allay people's fears that the company is in a death-spiral. I've seen small companies pull out of a death-spiral before, so it can be done. If Prana's management gave me the impression that they knew how to do it, I'd be buying shares at the current price.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Feb 1, 2016 1:00 PM Flag

    OK, so we are now 1/12th of the way through calendar year 2016, with no news from Prana. The last dose of PBT2 was administered to a Huntington's Disease patient in the mid-summer of 2013, more than a quarter of a decade ago. I bring this up merely to point out that things progress at a snail's pace in this industry, and particularly with this company. So when you hear the Prana enthusiasts predict that PBT2 will be on the market a couple of years from now, you need to take their predictions with a grain of salt.

    Sentiment: Sell

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