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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

goutah3006 16 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Nov 29, 2004
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  • Reply to

    PBT2 Manufacture

    by interestingtome Sep 19, 2014 3:43 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 5 hours ago Flag

    While it's nice to know that Dr. Reddy's has the ability to mass produce PBT2, mass production is irrelevant unless PBT2 gets approved. The orphan status for HD certainly helps in this direction, but even under a best-case scenario it seems unlikely that approval will happen anytime soon. Another trial will likely be needed. The big uncertainty, of course, is whether PBT2 will be of any use for treating either AD or age-related cognitive decline. Nobody knows. Nor are we likely to know for a long time, if ever. But I continue to hold my remaining shares in the event that discernible progress is made on the HD front.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Glenn Campbell and Alzheimer's Disease

    by interestingtome Sep 19, 2014 7:41 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 6 hours ago Flag

    Sad indeed. Most people don't know that Glen Campbell was briefly one of the Beach Boys before taking off on his own to become a country-western star. He also delivered a great performance as the Texas Ranger in the original version of "True Grit". Watching dementia destroy the mind of a creative person is extra-sad. Frank Capra, one of the greatest Hollywood directors of all time, got AD later in life.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 12, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Agreed. Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Kadaicher was telling us for a long time that it was a foregone conclusion that the IMAGINE results would be impressive. They most certainly were not. I'm optimistic that PBT2 has a shot at getting approved for HD in the next few years, but I'm not betting the farm on this outcome.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    NDA Approval Timelines - comparison

    by interestingtome Sep 10, 2014 9:21 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 10, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    I suspect another clinical trial will be needed to shed more light on efficacy. Also perhaps higher doses, which would need to simultaneously be evaluated for safety.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Off-Label Use

    by interestingtome Sep 9, 2014 8:11 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 9, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    The off-label use of PBT2 for AD is fun to speculate about, but we really don't know whether PBT2 will have any therapeutic effect on AD patients. One possible explanation for the disastrous IMAGINE trial results is that PBT2 simply doesn't work for AD. Of course, there are other plausible explanations as well. At this point we simply do not have enough data to know which explanation is correct.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 7, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    Some people are emotionally attached to Prana and to the faith-based belief that PBT2 is a "sure thing" (or a "slam dunk", to quote kadaicher). Others are emotionally attached to the thesis that PBT2 is worthless. At the moment, we don't have enough information to know what the future of PBT2 will be. We've been in such a state of limbo for a long time. PBT2 might turn out to be worthless, or it might turn out to be worth billions of dollars. The recent AD trial was supposed to shed more light on this question. It didn't. Ergo the massive price drop after the results were released. The recent HD trial, however, shed a tiny bit of light on the matter and hinted that maybe PBT2 might be worth something. So I continue to hold the shares that I didn't sell prior to the results, until the stock reaches $3 (if it ever does). At which point I'll probably start selling again. One can only make money in stocks over the long run if one is (a) patient and (b) able to remain emotionally detached from the companies on owns.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Aug 14, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    Kempler can write whatever he wants in the annual report, but it won't have any effect on share price unless he writes "patients are currently being enrolled in a new clinical trial of PBT2". Prana has had four unimpressive Phase IIa clinical trials thus far. PBT2 may indeed be a wonder drug, but thus far no compelling clinical evidence to that effect has surfaced. If it had, the share price would be $20 instead of $2.

    Prana's best hope at this point is to quickly move forward with a new clinical trial. The trick is to design a trial that's simultaneously affordable with the company's current cash and most likely to produce impressive results. Not an easy trick, but perhaps doable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    And so it begins

    by esoteric687 Jul 25, 2014 12:00 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 25, 2014 12:32 AM Flag

    And what signs might those be? People have been saying that a partnership is just around the corner for the past six years.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Next Catalyst

    by nytonc1979 Jul 18, 2014 4:44 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 19, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Nobody knows what the next catalyst will be, nor do we know whether that catalyst will be positive or negative. But a potential positive catalyst might be an announcement of plans for a Phase IIb or Phase III trial of PBT2 for Huntington's Disease.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Why long on Pran

    by gabrjelac Jul 15, 2014 11:02 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 16, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    No, PBT2 did not "meet its primary endpoint" in the recent Phase2b trial for Alzheimer's Disease. The primary endpoint was a reduction in brain amyloid burden relative to the placebo group. Both groups showed a decline in brain amyloid birder, and there was no stat sig difference between the dosed group and the placebo group. Ditto for secondary endpoints, which were based on various cognitive tests, in which there was no difference between groups. In the other trial (Huntington's), the primary endpoint was safety and tolerability, which was indeed met (as expected). It failed on all secondary endpoints except one: Trail Making B.

    At this point, any further clinical trials of PBT2 for Alzheimer's are probably years away from commencing, if they commence at all. This is due to lack of money. Prana's only hope is to pursue another clinical trial for Huntington's. If data from that trial are compelling, perhaps the share price will rise enough to enable funding of a new Alzheimer's trial.

    I was of the opinion that the IMAGINE trial had a good chance of producing compelling results. But because nothing is certain in this business, I sold a sizable chunk of my shares during the big price runup prior to the announcement of results in order to lock in a profit. Thanks goodness I did that. If Prana gets above $3 I'll sell the rest. Unlike kadaicher (who remained glowingly optimistic the last time my ignore filter was temporarily turned off), I'm willing to change my mind when new information comes to light, as happened with the IMAGINE trial. PBT2 may indeed still have great potential for Alzheimer's but we are once again years away from knowing whether that's the case.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Cash position

    by iruleyoulose Jul 15, 2014 7:06 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 15, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    I agree, Linda. At this stage of the game, Prana's best (and possibly only) hope is to do either a solid Phase II trial or a scaled-back Phase III trial for Huntington's. The orphan-drug status may enable them to do the latter. Either way, they need to generate some kind of solidly positive clinical results for PBT2 to get further funding. Anyway, it's been a long fun trip for the past eight years or however long I've been a Prana shareholder, and I look forward to selling my remaining shares if the price gets into the $3 - $4 range.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    You may want to put your entire portfolio in PRAN

    by smithts777 Jul 11, 2014 11:35 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 13, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    I assume you're joking.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Devils advocate

    by gh0stof99 Jul 11, 2014 12:39 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 12, 2014 1:01 AM Flag

    As long as Prana remains in business, they'll continue to pursue the use of PBT2 for Alzheimer's and for age-related cognitive decline. However, they have wisely chosen to give top priority to Huntington's for the time being because that's the fastest way to get the drug on the market (assuming it gets approved). Given Prana's limited resources, this is the best strategy. If the next HD trial produces good results, the company will be able to raise enough money to resume AD studies. There is still a chance that PBT2 will turn out to be useful for AD or age-related cognitive decline, but the huge setback from the IMAGINE trial makes it impossible to raise enough money to do further AD trials for the time being. And bear in mind that one possible explanation for the disappointing IMAGINE results is that maybe PBT2 really isn't any good for treating AD. I know that people don't like to hear this, but it's a possibility.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 10, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Prana is trading under $14 because the company has performed four Phase IIa clinical trials without producing compelling results. The best results were from the Huntington's trial, and they were modest. This does not mean that the company's drugs are worthless. It just means that we are probably years away from knowing whether the company's drugs have any value. With everything that is now known about PBT2, I think the stock is probably worth $3 or $4. So if it climbs above $3 I'll probably start selling.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    So, who is lurking?

    by inversor86 Jun 18, 2014 4:17 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jun 27, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    By the time I turned on my computer on the day of the disaster, it was already below $3. But, in any event, I adhere to Ben Graham's rule that one should never sell a stock in the immediate aftermath of a large price decline, and one should never buy a stock in the immediate aftermath of a large price increase.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    So, who is lurking?

    by inversor86 Jun 18, 2014 4:17 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jun 22, 2014 11:16 PM Flag

    "Once it becomes more obvious to the market that Prana has a drug that works this place will be restored to its former glory."

    It won't become obvious to the market that Prana has a drug that works until one of Prana's drugs succeeds in a Phase III clinical trial. So we may have to wait a while. However, I'd say that based on the current clinical information we have, the company is probably worth $3 or $4 at the present time. So as soon as it hits $3 I'll start selling again. I have no interest in waiting another half-dozen years in the hope that PBT2 will show results.

    Sentiment: Hold

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