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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

goutah3006 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 16, 2014 4:07 PM Member since: Nov 29, 2004
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  • Reply to

    PPS

    by stevelee779 Dec 15, 2014 2:41 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 16, 2014 4:07 PM Flag

    In the long run, the only thing of importance to us is clinical trials and the outcomes of those trials. That's it. All of the price action on Prana is driven by the market's anticipation of how likely we are to have further clinical trials, and what the outcomes of those trials will be. Of course, nobody can predict the outcomes. But the long-term success of Prana will depend entirely on those outcomes. Period. Not on yeast experiments or petri-dish protocols or mouse studies, no matter how interesting those might be.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    So when Tanzi calls PBT2 the next statin...

    by interestingtome Oct 31, 2014 4:51 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 15, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    Before PBT2 can start being used on a widespread basis as a statin, it will need to demonstrate efficacy in that regard. Meaning that a large and expensive Phase III trial will have to be done that's powered to measure PBT2's efficacy as a statin. Such a trial, if it ever takes place, is probably many years in the future. I suspect that many other trials will come first, such as a Phase III for HD, a Phase II for Alzheimer's, and a Phase III for Alzheimer's (i.e. as a treatment rather than a statin). The Phase III for HD must come before any of these others, because Prana needs to make progress on HD in order to finance further AD trials (unless, of course, the IMAGINE extension results are so mind-blowingly good that the share price jumps up a lot and stays high long enough for Prana to raise $50 million -- a scenario that's plausible, though we shouldn't count on it). So perhaps ten or fifteen years from now a trial will be undertaken to look into using PBT2 as a statin.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    2004

    by goutah3006 Dec 14, 2014 11:10 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 14, 2014 6:52 PM Flag

    I can say that the "development of PBT2 as an Alzheimer's drug is at a standstill" for one simple reason: It is. PBT2 has been in the clinical phase of development as an Alzheimer's drug for seven or eight years now, and it has not gotten beyond Phase IIa. Further development of PBT2 as a treatment for Alzheimer's will require additional clinical trials (at least one full Phase II followed by at least one Phase III). However, Prana has yet to announce another clinical trial of PBT2 for Alzheimer's because Prana does not have funding for any further Alzheimer's clinical trials. Management has made it clear that they intend to focus their PBT2 clinical program on Huntington's disease for the time being, which will probably consume the company's current cash and more. If at some point Prana obtains enough funding to do another Alzheimer's trial, I will jump for joy and declare that the development of PBT2 as an Alzheimer's drug is no longer at a standstill.

    It's worth noting that this is the second standstill in PBT2's history. The first occurred after the announcement of the results for the first Phase IIa trial in early 2008. Prana was unable to raise money for a full Phase II trial, and clinical development remained on hold for several years until the company devised a cheaper alternative (the IMAGINE Phase IIa trial) that they could afford.

    With regard to the comments in the Langbehn article regarding the Reach2HD results, those comments refer to the timespan between the announcement of the basic results last March and the peer-reviewed publication of the detailed analysis of the data. This was indeed a rapid and timely publication. By contrast, the excruciatingly long time lag between the end of dosing in the summer of 2013 and the announcement of the basic results in the spring of 2014 was anything but "timely".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Dec 14, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    On April 16, 2004, Prana,s ADR share price briefly went above $8 based on news related to PBT1. That was more than a decade ago. I bring this up to illustrate the risks associated with stock speculation. On April 16, 2004, I suspect that a lot of people were buying shares for $8 based on their expectation that PBT1 would be a big breakthrough in Alzheimer's treatment and would be on the market within a few years. Here we are ten and a half years later and the share price is less than a quarter of what it was on that day. PBT1 was abandoned long ago, and the clinical development of its successor, PBT2, as an Alzheimer's drug is at a standstill. I make this point to illustrate that irrational optimism is poison if your long-term goal is to make money in stocks.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    new timelines

    by jelchertjr Dec 12, 2014 11:18 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 12, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Well, I "actually hold shares". I've owned Prana for nearly a decade. Prana has a chronic tendency to either be late with delivering on promises (as in the case of the Reach2HD results, which were released five or six months later than promised) or totally fail to deliver on promises (as in the full Phase II trial of PBT2 for Alzheimer's which Prana promised would commence by the end of 2010 but which never commenced). I've learned to accept this as a fact of life. Yes, Prana has some interesting science. Yes, the MPAC theory could eventually result in marketable drugs. That's why I continue to hold the shares that I didn't sell during the run-up prior to the trial results. But I've learned not to put too much stock in Prana's announced timelines for most things.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    new timelines

    by jelchertjr Dec 12, 2014 11:18 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 12, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    Anyone who has followed Prana for more than a year or two will undoubtedly chuckle at any attempt to predict timelines. Prana management has a poor track record when it comes to meeting its own announced schedule for events. Occasionally they achieve a given milestone within the published timeframe, but this is the exception rather than the rule. So when management announces its intention to initiate a Phase I for PBT434 (the Parkinson's drug) in the first half of calendar year 2015, my interpretation is that this trial might begin in the first half of 2015, or it might begin in the second half of 2015, or it might begin sometime in 2016, or it might never take place.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sage advice

    by goutah3006 Dec 10, 2014 12:45 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 10, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    Well, bgfalter claims that this is a $0.48 stock. I claim that it's a $3 stock. Perhaps the next year will determine who's right.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sage advice

    by goutah3006 Dec 10, 2014 12:45 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 10, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    Anyone who uses VectorVest to evaluate Prana stock, as bgfalter appears to have done, does not understand much about VectorVest. I used to use VectorVest a bit here and there, and concluded that it has its uses when analyzing companies that have actual products or services. But it's useless for analyzing a company such as Prana that has no products or services. Whatever value Prana may or may not have at this point is intangible and is not taken into account by VecorVest. Pranav's financial fundamentals are irrelevant in analyzing the company, other than to tell us whether the company has enough cash to proceed with another clinical trial for HD (which they probably do, but just barely).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Dec 10, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    Ben Graham said that you should never buy a stock in the immediate aftermath of a large price increase, nor should you sell a stock in the immediate aftermath of a large price decline. Over the past two or three months the price of Prana declined gradually, getting down to about $1.50 a few days ago. That was a good time to be buying shares, while the price was declining for no good reason. I suspect there are people eagerly buying today, with the price having skyrocketed in the last couple of days. Those people should instead have been buying last week, or the week before, or the week before. FYI, my policy since the disastrous IMAGINE results were released has been to give Prana a "buy" rating when the price dips below $2, and switch to a "hold" rating when it gets above $2. If the price gets above $3, I'll probably switch to a "sell" rating unless there's some new development that causes me to change my mind.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Advise needed

    by younesuladali Dec 9, 2014 4:17 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 10, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    First, decide whether you want to be a trader or an investor. The two categories are mutually exclusive. If you want to be a trader, I have no advice because I know little or nothing about trading other than the fact that most traders lose money over the long run. If you want to be an investor, read "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham for starters. Another good one is "The Little Book that Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt. Bear in mind that Prana stock is not an investment. It's speculation and is therefore risky. But if you're going to speculate, the worst mistake you can make is to buy shares immediately after a big run-up in share price, or sell shares immediately after a big drop in share price. If you can overcome the natural instinct that makes you want to buy after the price has jumped up or sell after the price has plummeted, you should consider that a big achievement.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Downturn

    by jk224_pmc Dec 9, 2014 9:42 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 9, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    There has been no bad news during that period. If anything, there have been several pieces of modestly good news. So I suspect the decline since mid-September has been nothing more than a random fluctuation, just as this morning's 6% upswing is probably a random fluctuation. Stocks are subject to random fluctuations all the time. Why do people obsess about these fluctuations, anyway? If you believe that Prana may have a shot at getting a drug on the market sometime in the next five or six years, the price decline over the past three months should please you because it means you can buy more shares for your money.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    BOTTOM???

    by cottonbelter Sep 11, 2014 10:13 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 8, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    It's impossible to know when or at what price the bottom will occur, so I don't bother thinking about such things. Based on the company's fundamentals, I think it's a good bargain at the current price ($25), so I'm adding more shares. If it drops further, I'll probably buy even more shares. I don't particularly care how far it drops.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 8, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    I don't know whether the actual press release included the word "backup", or whether gyoung inserted it in there. However, all that counts is the truth: PBT1 was not specifically designed for AD. It was a decades-old anti-amoebic drug that had been discontinued, but which Prana found to have the right properties to test Prana's MPAC theory. In the meantime, Prana scientists set about designing a better MPAC drug specifically designed for AD. That drug is PBT2, which has a much greater ability to cross the blood-brain barrier than did PBT1, and which appears to have superior metal-chaperone capabilities and better tolerability than PBT1, and which is much easier to manufacture in a pharmaceutically pure form. So PBT2 was really a custom-designed 2nd-generation MPAC drug rather than a "backup" drug, whereas PBT1 was a 1st-generation MPAC drug that wasn't even originally developed as an MPAC drug.

    The abandonment of PBT1 provided me with my first entry point for Prana stock, because the share price plummeted after the news. I first noticed Prana while I was looking at stocks that had experienced massive price declines.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 7, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    The reason that Medicare does not cover holistic practices is the same reason Medicare does not cover the services of witch doctors, psychic healers, and other frauds. Medicare is subject to enough fraud as it is. Last year, an estimated $60 billion was paid by Medicare to various scam artists. The real number is probably much higher. Adding fraudulent pseudo-medical practices to Medicare's coverage menu would greatly exacerbate the problem.

    If PBT2 eventually turns out to be effective at preventing or delaying the onset of AD when used as a statin for example, it could save Medicare tens of billions of dollars annually. By contrast, nobody has yet shown that "whole foods" or "phytonutrients" have any effect whatsoever on Alzheimer's.

    I have a friend who has followed all the "organic" and "whole foods" fads for years. She was diagnosed with stage 2 colon cancer about a year ago. Fortunately, she chose to have surgery and chemotherapy, and she now has a pretty good prognosis. Even she recognized that taking synthetic drugs is preferable to certain death.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    How low can this stock go?

    by bgfalter Dec 5, 2014 6:47 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 6, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    The question of how low this stock can go should be of interest only to people looking to accumulate more shares. Unless we get some sort of horrendously bad news, a lower share price merely represents a better buying opportunity.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 6, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    I see merit in gyoung's price target range of $2.50 - $4.00, though my own target range is $3.00 - $4.00. If the price were to hit, say, $3.12 sometime in the next six months, this would be a doubling of the price from its current level. That's a big increase. I'd probably sell my remaining shares at that point at a nice profit, assuming we reach such a price level. The key to making money in a stock is to avoid paying too much for one's shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 5, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    I agree that any of those catalysts could potentially drive the share price higher, but I strongly doubt they'll propel it to $13 or anywhere close to that level. The $13 price was based on anticipation of the possibility that the IMAGINE results would be impressive, i.e. that PBT2 would quickly become a superstar drug candidate following the announcement of the results. Had this occurred, of course, the price would have shot up to $20 or $30 or above very quickly. The $13 level represented the market's assessment of the risk/reward ratio of Prana just prior to the results. I don't see us getting anywhere near that level again anytime soon. Perhaps toward the end of the next AD trial (if there is another one), but that's years away.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Dec 5, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    Question: Did Prana raise $50 million in new cash on November 26th, or did they not raise $50 million in new cash on November 26th?

    My Answer: I claim that Prana did not raise $50 million in new cash on November 26th. If Prana had actually raised $50 million on November 26th, this would certainly constitute a "material event", i.e. "news", and one would expect that Prana would have announced it on their website.

    I ask you to go to Prana's official website and find such an announcement. I poked around on the website and could find no such announcement. I found a shelf-registration statement dated November 6th and filed with the SEC, authorizing new ADS (i.e. ADR) securities for future sale for the purpose of raising up to $50 million. But I saw nothing indicating that any of these new ADRs had actually been sold to investors.

    A website called "Growth Capitalist" claims that Prana announced the securing of an ATM deal that closed on November 26, with the potential to generate up to $50 million. The Growth Capitalist announcement is somewhat confusing and, I suspect, was written by someone who didn't really understand what he was writing about (as is often the case in the news business). The Growth Capitalist blurb claims that MLV & Co. facilitated the ATM deal.

    I went to the MLV website and found that MLV specializes in acting as a broker for ATMs. I couldn't find any recent announcement on the MLV website about Prana, however. The Occam's Razor explanation of all this is that Prana, once it had filed the shelf registration, closed a deal on November 26th with MLV to have MLV act as the broker for future ATM sales of the newly-minted ADRs. So, in reality, all that happened on November 26th was that Prana finalized its arrangements to commence with a new round of ATM financing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 4, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    I don't seem to have had much luck verifying which of the two following scenarios actually took place: (a) Prana established a new ATM program with the potential to raise up to $50 million via future sales of stock at the market price, or (b) Prana actually raised $50 million by selling shares to somebody on November 26. The stuff I find on ASX and on Prana's website seems to point to (a). Furthermore, it seems hard to believe that an investor or an institution would have purchased $50 million worth of stock all at once on November 26th. I haven't seen anyone post an answer to my question here, but then again I have my ignore filter turned on so perhaps someone on my ignore list has already answered it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 4, 2014 1:37 PM Flag

    No, it was not due to a reverse split. It was due to anticipation that the clinical trial results might be impressive. They weren't. Ergo the massive price decline following the results.

    Sentiment: Buy

PRAN
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