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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

goutah3006 230 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Nov 29, 2004
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  • goutah3006 goutah3006 9 hours ago Flag

    "Be patient and you will be rewarded." Well, I've been patient with Prana for nearly eight years now. My only reward came from selling off about 37% of my shares during the run-up before the recent clinical trial results. This turned out to be a big reward indeed. Multiple hundreds of percent gain, nearly all of which was realized shortly before the results were announced. The shares that I still own are up about 25% from where I bought them. So if I had possessed the absolute faith in Prana that some people here exhibit and had kept all my shares and held them through the results, my reward would have been minuscule.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Parkinson

    by kingfish543 21 hours ago
    goutah3006 goutah3006 9 hours ago Flag

    This will be a Phase I trial of PBT434 on healthy volunteers to assess safety. I don't anticipate a Phase II trial of PBT434 anytime soon, due to Prana's chronic lack of money. I suspect that they'll focus on PBT2 for Huntington's for the time being.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Was today he dead Cat Bounce day?

    by gyoung28105 Apr 17, 2014 7:16 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 22 hours ago Flag

    Could be. I don't know. But I suspect that we've reached a price that pretty much reflects where we are. I put a speculative value of somewhere between $3 and $4 on Prana right now. But the stench from the disappointing IMAGINE trial results is keeping the share price below $2. That's life. A sub-$2 price right now is perfectly understandable. The stench may start to dissipate if Prana unveils a realistic and aggressive plan for further clinical trials. I'll continue to hold the shares I didn't sell prior to the trial results. If the price gets up to the $3 - $4 ballpark, I'll probably start selling again.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 17, 2014 6:54 PM Flag

    Prana did the right thing by running both trials, one for HD and one for AD. They rolled the dice on the AD trial and lost big-time, but it was a worthwhile risk. PBT2 was designed for AD, not HD, and to forego doing an AD trial would have been a bad idea. So I don't regret at all that they did the IMAGINE trial. While I'm sad that the IMAGINE trial was such a complete failure in its primary objective (to produce exciting results that would cause money to pour into Prana), we learned a lot of useful stuff from that trial. I suspect that the focus will be on looking for real efficacy in HD and getting PBT2 approved for that ailment. Further AD clinical trials may happen, but probably not anytime soon. If we get good Phase III results for HD, the share price could increase to the point that Prana might be able to raise enough money to resume clinical testing for AD. But it could be a couple of years before we see Phase III results for HD.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    This will be going after early stage HD

    by kadaicher1 Apr 12, 2014 11:42 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 16, 2014 12:18 AM Flag

    I'm open to the possibility that an HD trial will be conducted soon. PBT2 dosages up to 800 mg were shown to be safe in the Phase I. Question: Do they need to do another Phase II if they want to test, say, a 500 mg dosage on HD patients (given that the Phase I was only on healthy people)? Or could they go straight to a Phase III with a 500 mg dose?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Apr 15, 2014 6:19 PM Flag

    Why are some people complaining about the share price? If you think that Prana still has a bit of a future, a big price drop like this represents an opportunity to buy more shares for a given amount of money. While our dreams of a $50 share price this year were shattered by the disappointing IMAGINE results, we can realistically dream of a $3 share price this year. If you view this as a $3 - $4 stock as I do, then you can enjoy these price drops. Buying a $3 stock at $1.80 is a lot nicer than buying it at $2.80.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Hippocampus atrophy rate result, what it means

    by pivalde Apr 13, 2014 5:03 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 13, 2014 10:56 PM Flag

    This is one reason I bought some shares when it dropped below $2 recently. PBT2 still may have potential for HD, AD, and normal age-related cognitive decline. While I maintain that IMAGINE totally failed to achieve its objective of generating results that would enable Prana to easily raise lots of money, Prana isn't dead yet. It's just badly wounded. The hippocampus issue certainly deserves further investigation. And apparently it's something that's more easily measured than amyloid burden. So perhaps they could use it as one of the endpoints in the HD Phase III trial. Apparently the hippocampus shrinks even in people who don't have AD.

    Question: If they want to try a higher dosage of PBT2 (say 500 mg) would they have to run another Phase IIa trial for this purpose, or could they do it in a Phase III trial?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 12, 2014 8:29 PM Flag

    Prana management was under an ethical obligation to release the IMAGINE results shortly after receiving them. If they had said "hey, we have the results but we have found some problems with them and we are going to sit on them until we can analyze them further", the stock would have tanked just as badly.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Apr 11, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    After the IMAGINE debacle, I changed my long-term sentiment from "buy" to "hold". I've now flipped back to "buy" and actually bought a few shares today in a new account I have which had no Prana shares in it.

    While I don't share kadaicher's apparently reflexive and eternal optimism about Prana (and never have), I believe that the current price of $1.85 is too pessimistic. It appears that PBT2 is doing something interesting and positive in the brains of AD and HD patients. And it appears that Prana is serious about moving forward with PBT2 for HD in the near term.

    I do not share the unwavering faith in Prana exhibited by some of the long-time cheerleaders, and I'm a bit taken aback by their assertions that the IMAGINE trial was a success. Take cognitive endpoints, for example. The standard refrain among the cheerleaders had been that the small size of the trial didn't matter because PBT2 was so effective that cognitive improvements would be easily detectible even with a small sample size. Now, some of these same people are saying "well, IMAGINE was not powered to detect cognitive improvement, so it's of no consequence that no cognitive improvements were detected." I'm sorry, but you can't have it both ways.

    With regard to the decline of amyloid burden in the placebo arm: This, too, was completely unpredicted. Nobody here, either long or short, pumper or basher, predicted this.

    IMAGINE was a complete failure in its real objective, which was to generate results that would give Prana easy access to piles of money, from Big Pharma or from Wall Street or from both, at terms that would be favorable to Prana shareholders.

    Having said that, I think that the combined Reach2HD and IMAGINE results are sufficient to justify a current share price in the $3 or $4 ballpark. I think that going below $2 is an over-reaction. So I buy. But I don't delude myself into thinking that big profits are just around the corner.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 10, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Professor McFarlane's statements about slowing the rate of progression by 30% and recruiting 2,000 patients for a new trial were in reference to Solanezumab, not PBT2. There were multiple clinical trials being conducted at Caulfield Hospital for AD, but the TV news editors put the segment together in a way that does not make it clear that part of the segment was about one drug and part of it was about another drug.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 7, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    This is a purely speculative stock and there is no way to predict its future price. This message board has been littered with predictions over the past eight years that I've been reading it. If, in the minor euphoria following the release of the first Phase IIa results six years ago, with the stock price spiking to $6, someone had predicted that the share price in April 2014 would be $2, that individual would have been thoroughly mocked. But here we are.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New Shares issued

    by canyouclaim Apr 7, 2014 6:27 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 7, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    Good for Prana. I'd like to get some idea of how much it might cost to do the next HD trial, which presumably will be a Phase III. Anybody here have any guesses on the cost?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Reflections

    by goutah3006 Apr 5, 2014 12:42 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 6, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Good observations, wcamp32000. Your points are valid.

    I still regard IMAGINE as a failure for the simple reason that it completely failed in its intended purpose: to generate compelling results that would make it easy for Prana to obtain ample funding to proceed with further clinical trials. The IMAGINE results were supposed to make Big Pharma companies beat a path to Prana's door as well as boost the share price to the point that Prana could easily raise lots of cash. The bottom line is that IMAGINE was pitched as a "binary" event: either Wall Street and Big Pharma would see strong confirmation that PBT2 is worth pouring money into, or they wouldn't. It was indeed a binary event. Except that we got a "0" instead of the "1" for which we had been hoping.

    Having said that, I agree that the IMAGINE trial provided us with lots of useful scientific information as well as a new mystery that needs to be addressed (the amyloid reduction in the placebo group). And I agree that the results don't rule out PBT2 as an Alzheimer's treatment. I also suspect that the full post-hoc analysis of the data will provide additional useful insights. And the open-label extension could provide some interesting data. I see no reason not to proceed with a much larger AD trial of PBT2, with one exception: Money. Getting enough money anytime soon to start a larger AD trial seems at this point to be a pipe dream. Prana may be able (just barely) to afford to bring PBT2 to market for HD and start generating enough cash flow a few years from now to finance more AD trials. It's this additional delay that bothers me, especially after the lengthy delay between the first Phase IIa trial and the IMAGINE trial (a delay that was also caused by lack of money).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 6, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    I doubt that PBT2 would work for Wilson's disease because PBT2 is not a chelator. And there are already treatments for Wilson's disease. It's not regarded as a "quack" disease, and there are diagnostic tests for it.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 6, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    Where did you post the email from Dr. Tanzi?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 6, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    I disagree. Spin and "damage control" will not help at this point. And there's no way they're going to "restore investor confidence" anywhere close to the level it was at prior to the results.

    Investor confidence can, however, be given a bit of a boost if Prana announces a specific plan for moving forward on Huntington's Disease, coupled with an explanation of how they'r going to pay for the necessary clinical trials. If, for example, they can do a Phase III trial for $40 million (and I have no idea whether this can be done), and if they explain that they will continue to raise cash via ATM stock sales to add to the $26 million that they currently have, I suspect that such a plan would improve investor confidence.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Reflections

    by goutah3006 Apr 5, 2014 12:42 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 6, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    I strongly doubt that Prana had anything to do with the Kelvin Lawler video. I don't think Prana management would have been stupid enough to arrange such a thing. Shortly after the segment was broadcast on Australian TV, Prana filed a statement with the ASX to the effect that Prana personnel knew nothing about the segment until they saw it on TV.

    The TV segment was actually about two drugs, Sola and PBT2, though the reporter never made this distinction. She most likely simply wanted to do a story on AD research in Australia and went to Caulfield Hospital, where multiple AD trials were underway.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Reflections

    by goutah3006 Apr 5, 2014 12:42 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 5, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    I agree that the HD results probably merit a share price substantially higher than $2.30. I'm tempted to add some shares at the current price as a purely speculative play.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Reflections

    by goutah3006 Apr 5, 2014 12:42 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Apr 5, 2014 1:15 PM Flag

    ....continued from previous post

    Notice that I've always tried to avoid calling Prana an "investment". That's because it isn't one. It never has been one. It has always been a purely speculative stock. That's because nobody knows what Prana's intellectual property is worth. A week ago, many here were saying that Prana's intellectual property was worth many billions of dollars (I think one guy was even putting it at a trillion dollars or some such nonsense, based on his projection of future sales of PBT2).

    The whole point of the Reach2HD and IMAGINE trials was to give us some sort of enlightenment and clarification as to what PBT2 might be worth. For example, if IMAGINE had met its primary endpoint and had also shown strong improvement in trail making B and category fluency during the full year of treatment, the answer would have been: "PBT2 looks like it might be worth a lot." More accurately: "these results are consistent with the thesis that PBT2 is worth a lot". Instead, the best-case spin we can put on the IMAGINE results is: "We can't tell whether PBT2 helped any of the patients who were taking it, but we can see some interesting trends that suggest that a larger and better-designed study might show efficacy." Thus, IMAGINE didn't give us the sort of strong clarification that we had hoped for. In retrospect, the results from the original Phase IIa trial were much more compelling than are the IMAGINE results.

    But we need to remember that the Reach2HD results did in fact show something. They showed significant reason to believe that PBT2 may have a profitable future as an HD drug. So Prana's intellectual property MIGHT be worth something after all. Not billions or trillions, but perhaps a present value of a few hundred million given what we currently know.

    So perhaps the $2 price level is an overreaction based on the enormously disappointing IMAGINE results. A current price of $4 might not be unreasonable based on the Reach2HD results.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Apr 5, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    The recent disaster enables us to learn lessons that will be useful going forward. And it was a disaster, by the way. Only the gloomiest pessimists here predicted that the IMAGINE results would cause the stock to tumble to $2. My own worst-case scenario was $5. I expected at least ONE of the trial's endpoints to be met. I, along with most of the other longs here, regarded the $2 predictions made prior to the results as the crazy rantings of uninformed bashers. In reality, I suspect that most of the people making those $2 predictions were indeed uninformed bashers. But they happened to get it right. Adding yet another data point supporting a thesis on which I've expounded here from time to time: the future is unpredictable.

    One lesson I already learned from my previous speculative disasters was that if a speculative stock starts to go up a lot, one should start selling some of one's shares. At least enough shares to guarantee that you'll still make a healthy net profit in the event that the stock crashes. I sold about one-third of my shares during the big pre-results run-up. But I violated my own rule about keeping speculative stocks at 5% of my portfolio by allowing Prana to comprise 10% of my portfolio immediately before the results. Greed at work. Nonetheless, I still have a good overall net profit on Prana, thanks to the fact that I at least partially learned from previous experiences.

    To be continued...

    Sentiment: Hold

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