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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

goutah3006 69 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 6:02 PM Member since: Nov 29, 2004
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  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 22, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    In fairness to Prana, the company is in better financial condition now than it was when they announced and then abandoned the Phase II trial mentioned above. I suspect they currently have enough money to do a proper Phase II for Huntington's.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 22, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    With Prana, it's anyone'd guess. We were promised, for example, that a Phase I trial of PBT 434 (the Parkinson's drug) would begin in 2014. It's now 2015 and we haven't heard a peep from management. All I'd say is that we might reasonably expect an announcement of some sort about the IMAGINE extension by the end of April, based on the time lag between the end of dosing in the IMAGINE trial and the release of the data. The other hoped for announcement is a statement about the next trial for Huntington's. Such an announcement will probably consist of a basic outline of the trial design and an estimated date for enrollment to begin. But don't get too excited until an actual announcement is actually made that actual Huntington's patients are actually receiving actual doses. Which might not happen until 2016, if at all. Recall that Prana announced a full Phase II trial of PBT2 for Alzheimer's a few years back, and they announced that the trial would commence by a certain date. The date came and went with no news, and Prana subsequently dropped its plans for that trial.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Jan 19, 2015 5:46 PM Flag

    I'm just curious today, as it's a market holiday in the USA, about what other stocks are owned by people on this board. In particular, what stocks are you holding that in your opinion are substantially undervalued right now?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    UK Awards 150,000GBP to fund PBT434

    by interestingtome Jan 19, 2015 12:44 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 19, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    This press release is from the year before last, so I'm not sure whether it still counts as "news".

    Prana simply does not have the money to evaluate PBT434 for efficacy in humans. This would require Phase II and Phase III trials of PBT434 for Parkinson's, but Prana hasn't even done a Phase I (basic safety and tolerability of PBT434 in healthy people) and will, at best, barely be able to afford the hoped-for Phase III trial of PBT2 for Huntington's Disease. Animal studies are useful but they don't tell us whether PBT434 will actually work in people. Recall that Prana has done some highly impressive studies of PBT2 in animal models of Alzheimers, but has not yet provide compelling evidence of efficacy in human Alzheimer's patients.

    Again, it all goes back to lack of money.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    How long should i wait before it's safe to invest?

    by lescolddew Jan 13, 2015 12:51 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 14, 2015 12:25 PM Flag

    Bottom-fishing for stocks is a bit of an art, but it's worth pursuing. I added bought several thousand shares of Prana yesterday at $1.48. When things look bad, the normal temptation is to hold off on buying out of fear that the price might drop further. The flip side of the coin is the temptation to keep all of one's shares (or, even worse, buy additional shares) when everyone is optimistic after a major price increase, as happened early last year. One should avoid succumbing to either temptation.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    How long should i wait before it's safe to invest?

    by lescolddew Jan 13, 2015 12:51 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 13, 2015 7:39 PM Flag

    I noticed that kadaicher responded to bullhedger's excellent post. I don't know what he wrote, but I suspect it was something to the effect that Prana is a safe investment or some such nonsense. Anyway, bullhedger has it right. Prana is highly speculative and it might return 10x or it might go belly-up. If we get impressive results from the extension trial, I could see the share price going up substantially for a while. If it gets much above $3 I'll start selling. The 10x possibility is still there, of course, but probably not for a long time. I don't expect additional clinical results (most likely a Phase III for Huntington's) until perhaps late 2016. And, of course, we have no idea what those results will be.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    How long should i wait before it's safe to invest?

    by lescolddew Jan 13, 2015 12:51 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 13, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    I just added 3,000 shares a few minutes ago at $1.48.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Interested in PRAN Looking for Info

    by johnglaser26 Jan 9, 2015 2:58 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 13, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    Well, if you are interested in starting a position, I think the current price is a good price at which to buy some shares. I would recommend keeping your position small, as a percentage of your total portfolio. Also, perform your own due diligence by going to the Prana website and reading everything there. Also do a Google search for older documents that may no longer be on the website. Search for "Prana PBT1" and "Prana PBT2" and see what you come up with.

    Based on currently available information, I think the U.S. ADR shares may be worth somewhere between $3 and $4. But that's just my personal belief.

    Also, you'll need patience with this company. I bought my very first shares in 2006 (I think), and the price is lower today than it was back then. And the company still has come nowhere close to demonstrating that it has a useful drug. The optimists here will tell you that they have absolute faith that Prana's drugs are highly effective, but that Prana just happens to have conducted four poorly designed clinical trials that failed to show the drugs' true potential. This may be true. Prana's funds have been severely limited and it has had to conduct underpowered trials simply due to lack of money. Or it may simply be the case that the two drugs tested thus far really aren't useful. Only further, higher-powered, clinical trials will resolve this question.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Where's the News Nerds ?

    by lorde_chatterly Jan 9, 2015 1:08 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 11, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    I share your sentiments, lorde_chatterly. I've put the more delusional longs on "ignore" because I got tired of their constant assertions that great things are just around the corner. Kadaicher talked that way day in and day out for years (and appears to still be doing so, based on what I see when my ignore filter gets turned off after my login session expires), yet the share price today is about where it was when he started talking that way. I've always maintained that Prana's true value depends entirely on clinical results. The clinical results thus far have been few, far between, and not particularly impressive. The only clinical result on the horizon is the IMAGINE extension, the results of which I excitedly await. But I don't now what those results will be, more do I know how they will affect the share price. After that, it's anyone's guess as to when we'll see further clinical results. We waited more than 6 years between the release of the results for the first Phase IIa trial of PBT2 and the release of results for the second Phase IIa trial of PBT2.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Way overvalued!

    by ntgeorgeson Jan 8, 2015 9:58 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 8, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    I value Prana at between $3 and $4 per ADR share. So in my opinion it's undervalued at the current price, which is about $1.60, which is approximately my own basis cost for the shares that I still own.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Orphan drugs prove extremely lucrative

    by interestingtome Oct 17, 2014 12:13 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 8, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Prana has a significant shot at getting PBT2 approved for Huntington's Disease as an orphan drug within the next three years, though such approval is by no means certain. That's why I currently value Prana at between $3 and $4 per ADR share. It will be interesting to see whether they try a higher dose in the next Huntington's trial of PBT2.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    My response to pumpers here

    by newidfor2015 Jan 5, 2015 9:22 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 6, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    Good post, newid. I believe that ITM and kadaicher are sincere pumpers. Meaning that although they are pumpers, they are not short-term traders vainly trying to "talk" the price up, nor are they paid pumpers (a legendary species the actual existence of which I tend to doubt). I think kadaicher and ITM and others like them simply have a strong, almost religious, faith in Prana and they want to do everything in their power to convert others to that faith. They are more like religious zealots than anything else. They can't stomach even the slightest bit of skepticism about Prana's pharmaceutical development program. I've been a Prana shareholder for the better part of a decade, and I finally put kadaicher on my ignore list when I got tired of his repeated accusation that I was a short-seller of Prana. I'm merely a realistic speculator. Realistic speculators are always trying to find potential weaknesses in their own theses rather than blinding themselves to anything that might clash with those theses. The reality is, as you point out, that the share price is $1.60 for a reason: Prana has yet to produce compelling clinical evidence of efficacy for any of its drugs, despite having completed four Phase IIa trials. Like you, I've only purchased shares following major crashes of the share price, which is why I'm currently at about break-even on the shares that I still own. I may even add a few shares today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    PBT1 Extension Trial

    by goutah3006 Jan 3, 2015 12:53 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 3, 2015 5:45 PM Flag

    Just stating facts. I was interested to note, while reading the press release from 2003, that Dr. Tanzi was listed as a participant in a panel discussion about PBT1. However, he was not involved in the various panel discussions and teleconferences about PBT2 in 2008 following the first Phase IIa trial of that drug. But he was actively involved in the discussions following the Reach2HD and IMAGINE trials. Thus, Dr. Tanzi's level of involvement with Prana has fluctuated. His lack of high-profile involvement during the interim may have been attributable to his heavy involvement with Torrey Pines Therapeutics during that period. Dr. Tanzi's involvement or lack thereof is no guarantee of success or failure for Prana. Dr. Tanzi is extraordinarily smart (according to an acquaintance of mine who has worked with him), and he's an expert in the field, so it's nice to have him involved.

    With regard to your assertion that you have no doubt that PBT2 works for AD, I wish I could share your faith. But I've seen enough "sure things" fail in clinical trials that I remain unconvinced until a drug actually succeeds in clinical trials. Of course, by then it's generally too late to buy the stock at bargain prices. Hence the allure of speculating on the stock before clinical confirmation, as we longs are doing here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    PBT1 Extension Trial

    by goutah3006 Jan 3, 2015 12:53 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 3, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    Also, the same press release from 2003 indicates that Dr. Tanzi was actively involved with Prana at the time. After that, he seems to have sort of dropped off the radar for a number of years, perhaps because he was actively involved in another AD startup (Torrey Pines Pharmaceuticals, which eventually went belly-up). He got back on board with Prana a year or two ago when he became chief science advisor.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Jan 3, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    More than a decade ago, Prana did a small 36-week Phase IIa trial of PBT1 for Alzheimer's Disease, followed by an additional 48-week open-label extension trial. 27 patients participated in the Phase IIa trial. 18 of these chose to continue with the open-label extension. 9 of these 18 dropped out. So only 9 patients completed the full 84 weeks (36 weeks of Phase IIa plus 48 weeks of open-label extension). Of those 9 patients, it appears that all of them had received PBT1 during the Phase IIa trial. At least that's what Prana's poorly written press release implies. Anyway, among the 9 people who appear to have received PBT1 for the full 84 weeks, there was no statistically significant decline in MMSE scores. There was a decline in ADAS-Cog scores, but at a rate less than half the rate that would be expected over 84 weeks for untreated patients starting with the same scores as the average initial scores of the treated patients. Because (a) the sample was so small, and (b) the extension had no placebo, these extension results didn't do much for Prana, an Big Pharma did not find the results compelling (if they had, they would have partnered with Prana in some fashion). But I think the results remain interesting.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    The Worst-Performing Biotech Stocks of 2014

    by copper725 Jan 1, 2015 6:55 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 2, 2015 12:49 AM Flag

    Just goes to show the futility of New Year's predictions. Few of us, a year ago, would have predicted the massive collapse in the share price. I certainly didn't. But, of course, the future is all we're concerned about. 2014 is water under the bridge. Just as we had no idea what the stock would do in 2014, we have no idea what it will do in 2015. It's entirely plausible, for example, that something good will hit us out of the blue and boost the share price. I certainly am not counting on it, but it's possible.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Selling

    by gettrading Dec 31, 2014 9:50 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 1, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Or not. This stock is unpredictable. An unpredicted catalyst (either positive or negative) could come out of the blue and catch us by surprise at any time. I suspect that we'll seen an announcement at some point about the IMAGINE extension results. Whether that will have a positive or negative effect on share price is anyone's guess. One useful piece of data that will probably come out of the extension is that we'll have two years' worth of dosage at the 250 mg level, so we'll be able to see whether the safety and tolerability remains as good for the second year of dosing as it did for the first year, although there won't be a placebo with which to compare it. Whether we'll get an announcement about a Phase II or Phase III for HD or a Phase I for PD is anyone's guess. However, given the existing HD data, I value this stock at somewhere between $3 and $4. So I continue to hold my remaining shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    RKF and ITM same person!

    by bgfalter Dec 30, 2014 10:37 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 30, 2014 7:49 PM Flag

    No, they are not the same person. I put RKF on my ignore list a long time ago, but I read ITM's posts and I like a lot of the stuff he writes. They are definitely two different people.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Dec 28, 2014 11:09 PM Flag

    For pivalde and the other experts here: If Prana asked you to design a full Phase II trial of PBT2 for Alzheimer's Disease, how would you design the trial? Assume a budget of $40 million. How many patients? At what stage of progression of the disease would you want the patients to be at the beginning of the trial? How long would the trial be? What sorts of biomarkers, if any, would you include in the endpoints? (hippocampal volume, CSF beta amyloid, etc.). Prana designed a full Phase II trial a few years ago, but abandoned that plan due to lack of funding. I'm assuming that a new Phase II trial might be designed a bit differently from the abandoned trial, based on what we've learned from the IMAGINE trial.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Dec 28, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    Did this test also include PBT2?

    Sentiment: Buy

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