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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

goutah3006 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 14, 2014 12:56 PM Member since: Nov 29, 2004
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  • Reply to

    I don't get it

    by brewman228 Oct 13, 2014 5:19 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Oct 14, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    While I agree that Dr. Tanzi's discovery does not directly impact Prana and does not explain why PBT2 failed so miserably in the IMAGINE trial, I think it could benefit Prana and others in the long run by providing a better laboratory platform for studying AD. Until now, in vitro tests have been of very limited utility in screening for potential AD drugs. Perhaps now scientists will have a much more useful in vitro platform. I hope that Dr. Tanzi can use his new platform to test PBT2 and other drug candidates.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    valuation

    by almara1 Oct 10, 2014 10:54 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Oct 10, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Prana does not have any products for sale, nor do we know whether it will have any products for sale in the future. The company's cash position should not be counted for valuation purposes, because the company has negative cash flow and all of the current cash will be consumed long before Prana starts selling drugs (assuming that it ever does start selling drugs). Thus, Prana's only real asset at this time is its IP. But we don't have much idea of the value of that IP. It could range anywhere from $0 to tens of billions of dollars. So any attempt to value Prana at the present time is purely speculative. If I were to take a rough stab at it, I'd place the company's current value at around $3 or $4 per share.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    RECAP OF ANNUAL REPORT

    by interestingtome Sep 30, 2014 7:54 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Oct 5, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    These items are good news. Prana may still have a shot at some sort of success. At the same time, Prana speculators should avoid wishful thinking. We really, really want Prana's MPAC theory to be proven correct. But after four Phase II trials, we've seen only the scantiest evidence that the MPAC theory works in humans. If the clinical evidence were solid, the share price would be 10X what it is now. Or more. Simply hoping and wishing that PBT2 will finally be proven really effective won't affect the outcome of whatever the next clinical trials may be.

    I've made a good profit on my Prana speculation simply because I've avoided wishful thinking. I've bought only when the share price has gotten clobbered after bad news, and have sold some of my shares when the share price spiked either on good news or anticipation of great news. I think I sold about 37% of my shares during the price run up prior to the AD and HD clinical announcements earlier this year. Oddly, the wishful thinkers here have condemned me for not sharing their absolute faith in Prana, with at least one of the wishful thinkers having accused me of being a short-seller.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    PBT2 Manufacture

    by interestingtome Sep 19, 2014 3:43 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 21, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    While it's nice to know that Dr. Reddy's has the ability to mass produce PBT2, mass production is irrelevant unless PBT2 gets approved. The orphan status for HD certainly helps in this direction, but even under a best-case scenario it seems unlikely that approval will happen anytime soon. Another trial will likely be needed. The big uncertainty, of course, is whether PBT2 will be of any use for treating either AD or age-related cognitive decline. Nobody knows. Nor are we likely to know for a long time, if ever. But I continue to hold my remaining shares in the event that discernible progress is made on the HD front.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Glenn Campbell and Alzheimer's Disease

    by interestingtome Sep 19, 2014 7:41 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 21, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Sad indeed. Most people don't know that Glen Campbell was briefly one of the Beach Boys before taking off on his own to become a country-western star. He also delivered a great performance as the Texas Ranger in the original version of "True Grit". Watching dementia destroy the mind of a creative person is extra-sad. Frank Capra, one of the greatest Hollywood directors of all time, got AD later in life.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 12, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Agreed. Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Kadaicher was telling us for a long time that it was a foregone conclusion that the IMAGINE results would be impressive. They most certainly were not. I'm optimistic that PBT2 has a shot at getting approved for HD in the next few years, but I'm not betting the farm on this outcome.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    NDA Approval Timelines - comparison

    by interestingtome Sep 10, 2014 9:21 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 10, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    I suspect another clinical trial will be needed to shed more light on efficacy. Also perhaps higher doses, which would need to simultaneously be evaluated for safety.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Off-Label Use

    by interestingtome Sep 9, 2014 8:11 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 9, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    The off-label use of PBT2 for AD is fun to speculate about, but we really don't know whether PBT2 will have any therapeutic effect on AD patients. One possible explanation for the disastrous IMAGINE trial results is that PBT2 simply doesn't work for AD. Of course, there are other plausible explanations as well. At this point we simply do not have enough data to know which explanation is correct.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Aug 14, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    Kempler can write whatever he wants in the annual report, but it won't have any effect on share price unless he writes "patients are currently being enrolled in a new clinical trial of PBT2". Prana has had four unimpressive Phase IIa clinical trials thus far. PBT2 may indeed be a wonder drug, but thus far no compelling clinical evidence to that effect has surfaced. If it had, the share price would be $20 instead of $2.

    Prana's best hope at this point is to quickly move forward with a new clinical trial. The trick is to design a trial that's simultaneously affordable with the company's current cash and most likely to produce impressive results. Not an easy trick, but perhaps doable.

    Sentiment: Hold

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