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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

goutah3006 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 19, 2014 10:52 AM Member since: Nov 29, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Longest Holder on this Board Talks about SP

    by hemingwayplay Nov 19, 2014 10:01 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Nov 19, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    I've only owned Prana since 2005, so I don't have quite as much seniority. But I disagree with your view that "the product means almost nothing". In some businesses that may be true, but certainly not in this one. The product here is everything, as is the science behind it. Contrary to what you say, the issue of whether or not the science works is THE #1 issue here. And your view that "political and economic powers" can arbitrarily decide whether or not to allow PBT2 to be successful is simply ridiculous. If the results of the IMAGINE trial had been impressive, companies and investors would have been beating a path to Prana's doors and the share price would be 10X or more its current level and Prana would have no trouble funding further clinical trials. We don't yet know why the IMAGINE results were disappointing, but it's certainly not due to "political and economic powers". It's due either to a poor trial design, or to actual inefficacy of the drug, or possibly some combination of both, or possibly to a statistical fluke made possible by the relatively small number of patients. But the idea that a bunch of conspirators in a smoke-filled room simply decided to make the trial fail is totally loopy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Nov 18, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    This answers one question: Will additional clinical trials be needed before PBT2 can be put on the market? The answer, based on Dr. Dorsey's comments, would appear to be "yes".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Need a Tanzi Tweet!

    by jklemming Nov 11, 2014 1:50 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Nov 11, 2014 11:50 PM Flag

    Why do you need a Tanzi tweet? Please explain.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Next Catalyst

    by brryhargreaves Nov 10, 2014 11:59 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Nov 11, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    My father had Lewy Body Dementia. My aunt currently has Alzheimer's Disease. My uncle died of Alzheimer's disease. My grandmother died of Alzheimer's disease. So, yes, I'm eager to see progress on the dementia front. But what on earth does this have to do with speculation in Prana stock? For that matter, what does it have to do with the efficacy or lack of efficacy of PBT2? All the hope and emotional involvement expressed by some of the longs on this message board is of zero consequence, either to the efficacy or PBT2 or to the price of Prana's shares. I've enjoyed following Prana for many years because (a) it has made me money and (b) I've considered Prana to have interesting science that may have a shot at helping patients in a big way. The reason I was able to make money on Prana is that I left emotion out of it. Meaning that I sold a good chunk of my position during the runup prior to the clinical results without feeling the least bit guilty.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Next Catalyst

    by brryhargreaves Nov 10, 2014 11:59 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Nov 11, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    I suspect that I'm one of very few longs on this message board who has made a handsome profit from Prana. I made that profit simply by being realistic. One aspect of being realistic is acknowledging the unpredictability of most things. As I said, there may well be multiple catalysts in the near future, but we don't know what those will be with the exception of the fact that the extension trial results will be published at some point. That's all we know. And we don't know how those results will affect the share price.

    It's worth going back and looking at people's past predictions about catalysts to illustrate this point. With the exception of the announcement of clinical-trial milestones and results, which we all knew would happen, most of the catalytic events had not been predicted. And most of the catalysts that people were predicting either didn't happen or didn't have the anticipated effect. Most of the catalytic events that did happen caught everyone by surprise, such as the Kelvin Lawler video. And the biggest catalytic event of all (the IMAGINE results), while we knew it would happen, had the extreme opposite effect of what most people here were predicting.

    Anyway, feel free to daydream about near-term catalysts that will make the stock price soar. People on this board have been daydreaming in such fashion for the past decade, with little or nothing to show for it in terms of profit.

    You'll notice that since the share price has dropped back below $2, I've switched back to a "buy" rating. I think Prana may be worth somewhere between $3 and $4 given the potential with Huntington's Disease. So if I didn't already own some Prana shares I'd buy a few shares at the current price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Next Catalyst

    by brryhargreaves Nov 10, 2014 11:59 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Nov 10, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    The only possible catalyst the occurrence of which can be predicted is the release of the results of the IMAGINE extension trial. That's it. And we don't now whether it will have a good effect or a bad effect on the share price. Other catalysts may well happen, but we have no idea of whether they will or when they will. Nor do we know what those catalysts will be. Nor do we know whether their catalytic effect will be good or bad. For example, the release of the IMAGINE results was a catalyst. But it had a very bad effect on the share price. Catalytic action can work either way.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Nov 9, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    I'm a priori skeptical of any sort of "U.S. Government National Plan", just as I was always skeptical of the "5-year plan" announced by the Soviet Politburo every five years. If an effective treatment is found for AD, it will probably come from an unexpected quarter (such as a small company in Australia) rather than from any sort of grandiose scheme hatched by the U.S. Government. The U.S. Government is unable to reliably deliver mail from one side of my city to the other side of my city. So you can understand my skepticism about its self-styled ability to cure Alzheimer's. We had a national initiative to cure cancer a few decades ago, with people saying "a federal government that can put a man on the moon can certainly cure cancer in a decade." That didn't pan out, of course.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another look at IMAGINE Data

    by interestingtome Aug 14, 2014 3:59 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Nov 8, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    And what, exactly, do you propose that Prana's suits and scientists do with this analysis? They can't do anything with it until they have enough money to do a better Alzheimer's clinical trial. The only way they'll get that kind of money is if they manage to do another clinical trial for Huntington's and then get PBT2 approved for Huntington's. Having an orphan drug on the market will make Prana sufficiently viable to raise the cash needed to do more Alzheimer's clinical trials. So we are probably stuck for several years without a further Alzheimer's trial. We will have the IMAGINE extension data pretty soon, of course, but to make any further progress on the AD front they'll need to do a new trial that's larger, better designed, and more expensive.

    Prana admirably rolled the dice with the IMAGINE trial, and I applaud them for having taken the risks they took. But they lost.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I don't get it

    by brewman228 Oct 13, 2014 5:19 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Oct 14, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    While I agree that Dr. Tanzi's discovery does not directly impact Prana and does not explain why PBT2 failed so miserably in the IMAGINE trial, I think it could benefit Prana and others in the long run by providing a better laboratory platform for studying AD. Until now, in vitro tests have been of very limited utility in screening for potential AD drugs. Perhaps now scientists will have a much more useful in vitro platform. I hope that Dr. Tanzi can use his new platform to test PBT2 and other drug candidates.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    valuation

    by almara1 Oct 10, 2014 10:54 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Oct 10, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Prana does not have any products for sale, nor do we know whether it will have any products for sale in the future. The company's cash position should not be counted for valuation purposes, because the company has negative cash flow and all of the current cash will be consumed long before Prana starts selling drugs (assuming that it ever does start selling drugs). Thus, Prana's only real asset at this time is its IP. But we don't have much idea of the value of that IP. It could range anywhere from $0 to tens of billions of dollars. So any attempt to value Prana at the present time is purely speculative. If I were to take a rough stab at it, I'd place the company's current value at around $3 or $4 per share.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    RECAP OF ANNUAL REPORT

    by interestingtome Sep 30, 2014 7:54 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Oct 5, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    These items are good news. Prana may still have a shot at some sort of success. At the same time, Prana speculators should avoid wishful thinking. We really, really want Prana's MPAC theory to be proven correct. But after four Phase II trials, we've seen only the scantiest evidence that the MPAC theory works in humans. If the clinical evidence were solid, the share price would be 10X what it is now. Or more. Simply hoping and wishing that PBT2 will finally be proven really effective won't affect the outcome of whatever the next clinical trials may be.

    I've made a good profit on my Prana speculation simply because I've avoided wishful thinking. I've bought only when the share price has gotten clobbered after bad news, and have sold some of my shares when the share price spiked either on good news or anticipation of great news. I think I sold about 37% of my shares during the price run up prior to the AD and HD clinical announcements earlier this year. Oddly, the wishful thinkers here have condemned me for not sharing their absolute faith in Prana, with at least one of the wishful thinkers having accused me of being a short-seller.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    PBT2 Manufacture

    by interestingtome Sep 19, 2014 3:43 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 21, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    While it's nice to know that Dr. Reddy's has the ability to mass produce PBT2, mass production is irrelevant unless PBT2 gets approved. The orphan status for HD certainly helps in this direction, but even under a best-case scenario it seems unlikely that approval will happen anytime soon. Another trial will likely be needed. The big uncertainty, of course, is whether PBT2 will be of any use for treating either AD or age-related cognitive decline. Nobody knows. Nor are we likely to know for a long time, if ever. But I continue to hold my remaining shares in the event that discernible progress is made on the HD front.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Glenn Campbell and Alzheimer's Disease

    by interestingtome Sep 19, 2014 7:41 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 21, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    Sad indeed. Most people don't know that Glen Campbell was briefly one of the Beach Boys before taking off on his own to become a country-western star. He also delivered a great performance as the Texas Ranger in the original version of "True Grit". Watching dementia destroy the mind of a creative person is extra-sad. Frank Capra, one of the greatest Hollywood directors of all time, got AD later in life.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 12, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Agreed. Nothing is a foregone conclusion. Kadaicher was telling us for a long time that it was a foregone conclusion that the IMAGINE results would be impressive. They most certainly were not. I'm optimistic that PBT2 has a shot at getting approved for HD in the next few years, but I'm not betting the farm on this outcome.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    NDA Approval Timelines - comparison

    by interestingtome Sep 10, 2014 9:21 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 10, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    I suspect another clinical trial will be needed to shed more light on efficacy. Also perhaps higher doses, which would need to simultaneously be evaluated for safety.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Off-Label Use

    by interestingtome Sep 9, 2014 8:11 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Sep 9, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    The off-label use of PBT2 for AD is fun to speculate about, but we really don't know whether PBT2 will have any therapeutic effect on AD patients. One possible explanation for the disastrous IMAGINE trial results is that PBT2 simply doesn't work for AD. Of course, there are other plausible explanations as well. At this point we simply do not have enough data to know which explanation is correct.

    Sentiment: Hold

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