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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

goutah3006 53 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 25, 2014 12:32 AM Member since: Nov 29, 2004
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  • Reply to

    And so it begins

    by esoteric687 Jul 25, 2014 12:00 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 25, 2014 12:32 AM Flag

    And what signs might those be? People have been saying that a partnership is just around the corner for the past six years.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Next Catalyst

    by nytonc1979 Jul 18, 2014 4:44 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 19, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    Nobody knows what the next catalyst will be, nor do we know whether that catalyst will be positive or negative. But a potential positive catalyst might be an announcement of plans for a Phase IIb or Phase III trial of PBT2 for Huntington's Disease.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Why long on Pran

    by gabrjelac Jul 15, 2014 11:02 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 16, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    No, PBT2 did not "meet its primary endpoint" in the recent Phase2b trial for Alzheimer's Disease. The primary endpoint was a reduction in brain amyloid burden relative to the placebo group. Both groups showed a decline in brain amyloid birder, and there was no stat sig difference between the dosed group and the placebo group. Ditto for secondary endpoints, which were based on various cognitive tests, in which there was no difference between groups. In the other trial (Huntington's), the primary endpoint was safety and tolerability, which was indeed met (as expected). It failed on all secondary endpoints except one: Trail Making B.

    At this point, any further clinical trials of PBT2 for Alzheimer's are probably years away from commencing, if they commence at all. This is due to lack of money. Prana's only hope is to pursue another clinical trial for Huntington's. If data from that trial are compelling, perhaps the share price will rise enough to enable funding of a new Alzheimer's trial.

    I was of the opinion that the IMAGINE trial had a good chance of producing compelling results. But because nothing is certain in this business, I sold a sizable chunk of my shares during the big price runup prior to the announcement of results in order to lock in a profit. Thanks goodness I did that. If Prana gets above $3 I'll sell the rest. Unlike kadaicher (who remained glowingly optimistic the last time my ignore filter was temporarily turned off), I'm willing to change my mind when new information comes to light, as happened with the IMAGINE trial. PBT2 may indeed still have great potential for Alzheimer's but we are once again years away from knowing whether that's the case.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Cash position

    by iruleyoulose Jul 15, 2014 7:06 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 15, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    I agree, Linda. At this stage of the game, Prana's best (and possibly only) hope is to do either a solid Phase II trial or a scaled-back Phase III trial for Huntington's. The orphan-drug status may enable them to do the latter. Either way, they need to generate some kind of solidly positive clinical results for PBT2 to get further funding. Anyway, it's been a long fun trip for the past eight years or however long I've been a Prana shareholder, and I look forward to selling my remaining shares if the price gets into the $3 - $4 range.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    You may want to put your entire portfolio in PRAN

    by smithts777 Jul 11, 2014 11:35 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 13, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    I assume you're joking.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Devils advocate

    by gh0stof99 Jul 11, 2014 12:39 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 12, 2014 1:01 AM Flag

    As long as Prana remains in business, they'll continue to pursue the use of PBT2 for Alzheimer's and for age-related cognitive decline. However, they have wisely chosen to give top priority to Huntington's for the time being because that's the fastest way to get the drug on the market (assuming it gets approved). Given Prana's limited resources, this is the best strategy. If the next HD trial produces good results, the company will be able to raise enough money to resume AD studies. There is still a chance that PBT2 will turn out to be useful for AD or age-related cognitive decline, but the huge setback from the IMAGINE trial makes it impossible to raise enough money to do further AD trials for the time being. And bear in mind that one possible explanation for the disappointing IMAGINE results is that maybe PBT2 really isn't any good for treating AD. I know that people don't like to hear this, but it's a possibility.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Jul 10, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Prana is trading under $14 because the company has performed four Phase IIa clinical trials without producing compelling results. The best results were from the Huntington's trial, and they were modest. This does not mean that the company's drugs are worthless. It just means that we are probably years away from knowing whether the company's drugs have any value. With everything that is now known about PBT2, I think the stock is probably worth $3 or $4. So if it climbs above $3 I'll probably start selling.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    So, who is lurking?

    by inversor86 Jun 18, 2014 4:17 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jun 27, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    By the time I turned on my computer on the day of the disaster, it was already below $3. But, in any event, I adhere to Ben Graham's rule that one should never sell a stock in the immediate aftermath of a large price decline, and one should never buy a stock in the immediate aftermath of a large price increase.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    So, who is lurking?

    by inversor86 Jun 18, 2014 4:17 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jun 22, 2014 11:16 PM Flag

    "Once it becomes more obvious to the market that Prana has a drug that works this place will be restored to its former glory."

    It won't become obvious to the market that Prana has a drug that works until one of Prana's drugs succeeds in a Phase III clinical trial. So we may have to wait a while. However, I'd say that based on the current clinical information we have, the company is probably worth $3 or $4 at the present time. So as soon as it hits $3 I'll start selling again. I have no interest in waiting another half-dozen years in the hope that PBT2 will show results.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Jun 16, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Of course they've been printing shares. That's how early-stage pharma companies survive. And they will continue to print shares. Everyone knows that. The big question is whether any of Prana's drugs have value. We don't know the answer to that, which is why the stock is trading at around $2. We have some evidence that PBT2 may be useful for Huntington's Disease, and this evidence is sufficient for me to value the stock at $3 or maybe $4. If it climbs above $2 I'll flip from "buy" to "hold".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I expect

    by jelchertjr Jun 9, 2014 11:05 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jun 9, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    There was "interest brewing" about a week ago when the shares briefly popped above $2. Then they plummeted to whatever. Now they're going up again. It's called "unpredictable fluctuations in share price" and a wise person would hesitate to read anything into it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AD Pahse 2 extension

    by juniorsbro Jun 5, 2014 2:15 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jun 6, 2014 1:11 AM Flag

    I think pivalde is right. The extension trial does not end until the last patient finishes dosing, which will be late 2014. Then perhaps two months to process the data. Because it's an open-label study, I don't expect the data-processing to take as much time as it did for the main trial. Because some of these patients will have been on the drug for two years, we may see some significant cognitive improvements. Since there won't be a 2-year placebo group to compare with, they may make a comparison with cognitive declines observed in similar untreated populations.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just lurking

    by pvretire Jun 4, 2014 4:07 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jun 4, 2014 6:58 PM Flag

    That sort of thing typically takes awhile. I don't expect a peer-reviewed in-depth analysis to be published until perhaps late summer.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 May 31, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Please explain to us why you think this company is worth $10 per share given the current information that's available. My own assessment is that it's worth somewhere between $3 and $4. I switched my long-term sentiment from "hold" back to "buy" after the price dropped below $2. If it goes back above $2 I'll probably switch back to "hold". If the stock reaches $3, I'll probably start selling shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Oh well, I guess I'm screwed...

    by brewman228 May 29, 2014 11:25 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 May 30, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    That's interesting. Two friends of mine around the age of 60 have always had high levels of cynicism and distrust, and they both seem to be showing early signs of dementia. This is purely anecdotal of course. But it would be interesting if there turned out to be a link.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Crowd psychology

    by goutah3006 May 28, 2014 12:16 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 May 29, 2014 12:04 AM Flag

    The irrational exuberance was palpable. I myself felt inclined to believe that we had a good shot at getting some impressive results and was getting quite excited about the possibilities. Only the hard-learned lessons from previous speculations prevented me from engaging in the speculative fever. I remember finding it psychologically somewhat difficult to sell shares prior to the results.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 May 28, 2014 7:20 PM Flag

    My ignore filter was down long enough to see kadaicher's post. I'm glad to see that he remains his unquestioningly optimistic self. Recall that he's the guy who said that the IMAGINE trial was going to be a "slam dunk".

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Crowd psychology

    by goutah3006 May 28, 2014 12:16 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 May 28, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    You're welcome to wait for another half-decade to see whether we get "complete validation of MPACs". I've already waited eight years and we have yet to see anything remotely approaching "complete validation of MPACs". The good news is that by doing the opposite of what the crowd was doing, I've made a nice profit on Prana. The trick to both investing and speculation is to disregard the movements in the share price most of the time. The only time one should pay attention to share price movements is if they present you with a good opportunity to buy low or a good opportunity to sell high.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 May 28, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    Many people's view of Prana tends to depend on movements in share price rather than the a rational assessment of company and its products. When the price rocketed to $13 prior to the Reach2HD results, people thought that this was a great company worth at least $20. When the price plummeted below $2 after the IMAGINE results, people thought that this was a crummy company worth a few cents. Now that the price is suddenly shooting up, people are saying that this is a great company, with one poster claiming that it's really worth $18 per share.

    The good news is that we have enough clinical data that we can say that Prana has a shot at getting PBT2 on the market for Huntington's disease in the next three or four years. A shot, not a certainty. So I value the shares at somewhere between $3 and $4.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 May 28, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Prana is probably worth somewhere between $3 and $4. So if it hits $3 I'll probably start to sell a few shares.

    Sentiment: Hold

PRAN
2.20-0.10(-4.34%)Jul 28 3:59 PMEDT

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