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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

goutah3006 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 10, 2016 8:30 PM Member since: Nov 29, 2004
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  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Feb 10, 2016 8:30 PM Flag

    Can anyone explain to me why a Big Pharma company would want to have a partnership with Prana at this point? People have been talking about a partnership for the better part of a decade, but no partnership has emerged.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Feb 2, 2016 1:07 PM Flag

    I does indeed appear that Kempler will be giving a presentation at this conference. We cannot infer anything fro this other than the fact that Kempler at least acknowledges that Prana needs to raise more money. It has been a long time since Prana has presented at an investor conference. Whether this is because the top-tier conferences haven't invited Prana, or whether it's because Prana has not been interested in presenting, I cannot say. I'm glad that Prana is once again trying to promote itself to potential investors. But I will be surprised if they generate much interest unless, of course, the clinical hold gets lifted.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Feb 1, 2016 2:49 PM Flag

    Prana's management does a much better job of "scaring people away" from putting money into this stock than does anyone on this message board. If Prana's management were to provide a plausible and somewhat detailed plan for surmounting the obstacles that the company faces, I'd consider adding to my position at the current price. For example, they might issue a press release explaining exactly what's going on with the clinical hold and what they think needs to be done to get the hold lifted and explaining why it has taken so long. Then they could explain how they intend to use the remaining cash and how much additional cash they'll need to do a Phase III if and when the clinical hold gets lifted. And then they might explain their long-term plan regarding Alzheimer's and how much it will cost to execute that plan and what a realistic timeframe might be.

    Instead of doing this, management remains silent while the company's cash evaporates. People with cash on the sidelines are understandably nervous about putting money into a company whose management does nothing to allay people's fears that the company is in a death-spiral. I've seen small companies pull out of a death-spiral before, so it can be done. If Prana's management gave me the impression that they knew how to do it, I'd be buying shares at the current price.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Feb 1, 2016 1:00 PM Flag

    OK, so we are now 1/12th of the way through calendar year 2016, with no news from Prana. The last dose of PBT2 was administered to a Huntington's Disease patient in the mid-summer of 2013, more than a quarter of a decade ago. I bring this up merely to point out that things progress at a snail's pace in this industry, and particularly with this company. So when you hear the Prana enthusiasts predict that PBT2 will be on the market a couple of years from now, you need to take their predictions with a grain of salt.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Jan 30, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    More than a quarter of a decade has elapsed since the final dose of PBT2 was administered in the Reach2HD trial. And we still have no announcement of a follow-on Huntington's trial, nor do we have any news about the clinical hold. People keep referring to it as a partial clinical hold, but this is misleading. Yes, Prana is free to conduct trials at low doses, but has rightly concluded that any such trial would be a waste of money because those doses are extremely unlikely to produce detectable efficacy. So for all intents and purposes, it's a full clinical hold. So it's not surprising at this point that the share price is 50 cents.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    OT - Popularity

    by copper725 Jan 21, 2016 8:10 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 21, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    There are no paid bashers or paid pumpers on this board. If copper is accused of being a paid basher, why isn't kadaicher accused of being a paid pumper? Neither of them is paid. The price movements of this stock are not driven by people's comments on this message board. Anyone with enough money to pay a basher or a pumper would probably not be foolish enough to pay a basher or a pumper. People can have genuine disagreements about this company without being either paid or evil. My own views of this company have evolved with time, because, as the man said, "when the facts change, I change my mind". A year and a half ago, I seriously thought this stock was worth something in the $3 - $4 range following the IMAGINE debacle. If I recall correctly, I added a few shares when it dipped below $2 in 2014. But I'm not buying on the current dip, and in fact I sold some shares a couple of months ago when the stock was flirting with $1. This stock may still "go to the moon" or whatever, but I'm no longer interested in doubling down on such a bet. Why has my opinion changed? Because the facts have changed.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Jan 20, 2016 4:34 PM Flag

    I've been buying stocks today in three companies that are in the oil business. These companies have good long-term business prospects and have the resources to wait out the current low price of oil. And their activities don't have to be approved by the FDA. I still own a few Prana shares just to give me an incentive to continue to follow this company, but I haven't bought any more Prana shares during this recent decline in the share price, because the long-term future of Prana is much more iffy than the long-term future of the oil business.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • The share price factors in the market's current assessment of the clinical-hold situation. Nobody really knows whether the clinical hold will be lifted. And if it gets lifted, nobody knows when that will be. Or what the conditions will be. I'd like to see a 400 mg dose approved, for example. But perhaps the hold will only be lifted for the 250 mg dose. Who knows? Anyway, I never expected the price to drop below 50 cents, but here it is.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Jan 15, 2016 11:07 AM Flag

    If a company is trading close to its cash value, this only makes the company a value play if the company has a good earnings and free-cash-flow record. Sometimes a company will have a temporary earnings setback that will knock its stock down to tangible book value or even cash value. Such companies can be a great investment when purchased at such a price. Prana, of course, is not in this category because it burns through cash without generating any cash from operations. The only cash it generates comes from the dilution of its stock, mixed with the occasional small grant from a foundation or from the Aussie taxpayers. So Prana's cash cannot be viewed as a solid long-term asset from the standpoint of shareholder value. It's an ephemeral asset that's evaporating every month without getting replenished by cash flow from operations.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 14, 2016 11:26 AM Flag

    Excellent news. I'm actively helping in the reelection campaign of my own U.S. Senator, Mike Lee, the co-sonsor of this bill. The FDA is badly in need of a major overhaul, and this would be a good start.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Buying interest

    by copper725 Jan 12, 2016 6:46 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 13, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    Apparently nobody cares much about this at Prana HQ. Prana management has for the most part done a poor job of instilling shareholder confidence over the years, with the exception of a few brief moments. One possible scenario is that Prana's cash will be reduced to the point that it can't do further trials, and the company will be unable to raise money due to the low share price, and the company will end up liquidating itself and distributing the remaining cash to shareholders. I've actually seen this happen before.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Buying interest

    by copper725 Jan 12, 2016 6:46 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 13, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    The challenge for Prana in the event that the clinical hold gets lifted will be to raise enough money to perform a Phase III trial for Huntington's. The lower the share price, the harder it is to raise money. If the hold gets lifted, the share price may go up a bit, but it might not go up enough to make funding viable.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Partial Clinical Hold reminder

    by enigmatic6088 Jan 13, 2016 10:28 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 13, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    Whenever Prana announces a self-imposed deadline, you can take it with a grain of salt. Occasionally the company meets its own deadlines, but usually it does not. For example, we're still waiting to see the efficacy results for the IMAGINE extension, which were originally promised for the first quarter of calendar year 2015.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Repeat of request

    by goutah3006 Jan 8, 2016 12:43 PM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 11, 2016 8:37 PM Flag

    I didn't say anything about share price in my post. All sorts of things could happen in the near term that could boost the share price. But I'm not interested in share price. I'm interested in seeing Prana make money by selling approved drugs. A drug company has to, at some point, start selling drugs if it wants to make money. So I cobbled together my best-case scenario for this, which is PBT2 being approved for Huntington's sometime in 2019. The optimists claim that this is way too pessimistic, which is why I challenged them to present a detailed timeline under which approval comes sooner than 2019. You're invited to present such a scenario if you can come up with one.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Jan 8, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    I asked a while back whether anyone could present a plausible scenario under which PBT2 gets approved before 2019. Is there anyone out there who can provide such a scenario?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 7, 2016 12:30 PM Flag

    In previous years when Prana's stock took a beating, I added shares. This time I'm not adding shares. In fact I sold some of my remaining shares a month or two ago when the price got near $1. Prana's MPAC theory is still interesting, but the company has a long track record of problems that just keeps getting longer. Even if the latest hurdle (the clinical hold) gets lifted, it will still be a long time before we see any new clinical results that might tell us whether or not PBT2 is a useful drug.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 6, 2016 4:05 PM Flag

    Interesting find. Prana has an MPAC drug candidate for glioblastoma. If Prana had enough money, they'd probably have that drug in clinical trials by now. Ditto for their Parkinson's drug. But Prana is largely out of options right now other than to hope that the clinical hold on PBT2 gets lifted soon. The company probably may or may not have enough money to continue with its Huntington's program, but it definitely does not have any money to spare for other projects at this point. And additional money is going to be very difficult to raise at the current share price.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    PBT2 Safety and the FDA Partial Clinical Hold

    by copper725 Jan 5, 2016 11:17 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 5, 2016 1:14 PM Flag

    That's an interesting scenario I hadn't thought about. The current clinical hold allows Prana to do clinical trials at very low doses (substantially below the 250 mg dose), but Prana does not believe those doses will be effective. In Reach2HD, the 250 mg dose showed slight efficacy in Trail Making B and showed no efficacy in any other tests, so Prana indicated that they'd like to try higher doses in future trials to see whether efficacy could be increased in Trail Making B and perhaps detected in other tests. If the hold gets lifted only for doses up to and including 250 mg, this could pose a problem. I'd like to see Prana try a significantly higher dose, and I suspect they would too.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • goutah3006 by goutah3006 Jan 4, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    I recently expressed my opinion that the best-case scenario for Prana involves getting PBT2 on the market for Huntington's Disease sometime in 2019. Some posters responded with the assertion that this was a ridiculously pessimistic scenario but did not explain why they regard it as ridiculously pessimistic. So I'd like to hear other people's best-case scenarios, laid out with a timeline and all that.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Reader's Choice

    by copper725 Jan 2, 2016 7:20 AM
    goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 2, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    One reason I bought Prana stock after the implosion of its PBT1 program was that the company had the appearance of a loser but might actually be a winner. Those are sometimes the best kinds of companies on which to speculate. The share price had plummeted even though Prana had a substitute drug (PBT2) in the pipeline. When the shares fell again beginning in late 2008 due to a combination of the global financial panic and Prana's inability to get a partnership, I added more shares for the same reason. The Reach2HD and IMAGINE trials were Prana's big shot at reversing the company's "loser" image. We all know how that worked out. IMAGINE was a disaster, but Reach2HD left us with a hope that Prana could switch its focus to Huntington's Disease and quickly get PBT2 into Phase III trials for that. But that hasn't worked out yet. The last dosing of a Huntington's patient was a quarter of a decade ago, and we still have no sign of further progress toward getting PBT2 on the market. So Prana's "loser" status is getting reinforced with each passing day. Which is why, unlike previous dips, I'm not buying any shares on the current dip. If it is a dip, which it might not be. A dip implies a future rebound, but I no longer have the conviction I had during previous dips that a rebound was probable.

    Sentiment: Sell

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