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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

govpur 103 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 26, 2015 12:19 PM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • Well, finally some good news. Funds tied to this index will be required to but CEQP once it is added on February 2nd!!!

    DALLAS, Jan. 26, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Swank Capital, LLC and Cushing® Asset Management, LP announce an interim change to the constituents of The Cushing® MLP High Income Index (the "Index"). Index constituent Williams Partners L.P. (NYSE: WPZ) previously entered a merger agreement with Access Midstream Partners, L.P. (NYSE: ACMP) wherein WPZ would become a subsidiary of ACMP (the "Merger"). Pursuant to the terms of the merger agreement, following the Merger closing after the market opens on February 2, 2015 (the "Distribution Date"), each publicly held WPZ Common Unit will be exchanged for 0.86672 ACMP Common Units, with ACMP continuing as the surviving entity following the Merger.

    Accordingly, barring any unforeseen events, WPZ will be removed from the Index and replaced with Crestwood Equity Partners LP (NYSE: CEQP) after the markets close on February 2, 2015. The changes will be effective on February 3, 2015.

  • Reply to

    Govpur - help please

    by darv222 Jan 22, 2015 1:29 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 26, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    Well, I hope First Reserve takes some bold action with Crestwood, maybe the new CFO- a FR guy, is there for that reason. ETP buying RGP also shows the consolidation phase is upon us. Someone just has to be looking at Crestwood with their pipeline assets in the Northeast being the real gems, IMO. I am still lobbying for SE. However, even without a buyout I think Crestwood is a winner long term, just need to get a better story out there. Ken

  • Reply to

    Govpur - help please

    by darv222 Jan 22, 2015 1:29 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 23, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Well, seeing that CEQP and CNNX are currently my only two holdings, I will put them at the top of the list. Never owned SEMG but looked at it before buying CNNX and just couldn't get my head around it. Owned TRGP back in 13 and sold on runup. Liked it then, not so sure now. Think that is one you wait and see what happens with earnings and outlook. The buyout of Atlas pretty much marked the top for all the gas processors. The Permian story that drove the buyout has changed dramatically since then. Forward p/e still in high 30's as where CEQP is 12, meaning I think you are way better off here, IMO. Good luck whatever you decide.

  • Reply to

    Govpur - help please

    by darv222 Jan 22, 2015 1:29 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 23, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    Yes, he mentioned that on a couple presentations as well. Plus, on one he stated "a utility or E and P that understands the power of tax benefits, dropdowns". Pleasantly surprised that it is up this morning after yesterday's announcement. If gains hold it may demonstrate how overly negative the market is on CEQP and that a distro cut is/was being priced in. Don't blame you for waiting on guidance, may miss some of a move but who knows, really. I was convinced it was a deal at 11, down to 8 and it printed sub 6. Yesterday, I was convinced it would be negative this morning and it is up, so I can provide no advice on price. However, I do think this company is uniquely positioned and undervalued. Darv222's 60mm EBITDA on CEQP's NGL biz is low and the dropdown, when it happens, will make it a pure play GP with a great balance sheet. Lots of catalysts as well: Buckinghorse, Marc 2, and possible approval of Seneca Lake LPG storage will all improve story and metrics. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Att O'll sidewinder (bow)

    by juan_ton_amigo Jan 17, 2015 11:26 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 23, 2015 8:15 AM Flag

    Thanks for the reply. Freeport (COP) says they are moving forward as well, but we will see. I agree that Sabine and Cove Point are the only "locks" right now. The Mexico story seems to be misunderstood and it is as big, bigger than LNG. Don't think it is factored in to NG price. NG up 3 percent this morning, BTW. Anyway, thank again and keep posting. I thank you for sharing your thoughts. Ken

  • Reply to

    Govpur - help please

    by darv222 Jan 22, 2015 1:29 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 23, 2015 8:10 AM Flag

    Harehu, I would agree with your analysis but we need to see Q4 numbers and guidance. 17mm in Q2 should be low when we smooth out for year. Last year maybe not best comparison with polar vortex but we can average out 2 years after guidance. Wouldn't be surprised if the 700mm you estimate is over $1b, thereby making your case even more compelling. Market may not care today, as CEQP is levered to CMLP and no distro growth. However, if coverage improves and guidance is good it may mark the end to this long, painful slide. I still want CMLP to buy CEQP and look like EPD. Probably a pipe dream but it would simplify the balance sheet (yes, it's confusing) and be the bold action required to make the Crestwood story better. Good luck. Ken

  • Reply to

    Govpur - help please

    by darv222 Jan 22, 2015 1:29 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 22, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    Cursory look and think Harehu nailed it. The NGL biz offset the Tres loss. Tres no longer a drag and NGL biz usually picks up 4th and 1st quarter. I am a little peeved no distro growth released tonight which would have helped us suffering unit holders but I will wait for guidance. Just in a bad mood right now as wanted even the slightest increase to .14 per quarter. Well, I am on the 5 year plan so just suck it up. Ken

  • Reply to

    Govpur - help please

    by darv222 Jan 22, 2015 1:29 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 22, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    I will deep dive tonight. Ken

  • Reply to

    Att O'll sidewinder (bow)

    by juan_ton_amigo Jan 17, 2015 11:26 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 22, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    216 BcF draw today and NG hits a 52 week low. Think your bearish case may be right on but we are still not above the 5 year average. Markets are forward looking- If traders start seeing your case play out I believe NG will move before 2017, when I agree that it will be very apparent what is happening. The only point that is in question is LNG. Analyst came out with a pretty detailed report yesterday that oil below $50 makes U.S. LNG exports uneconomic. Pretty compelling report if you have a chance to read/review. Interested in your thoughts on that. Ken

  • Reply to

    CNNX vs AM

    by govpur Jan 15, 2015 11:33 AM
    govpur govpur Jan 22, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    When they guide at earnings, or before like AM, this stock will move. There is an advantage for CNX and NBL to increase distro at highest rate possible as it flows right to them, at a tax advantage. No chance of GOP giving in on MLP tax structure. Everyone agrees this is what is making the infrastructure buildout possible and Dems know it as well.

  • Reply to

    CNNX vs AM

    by govpur Jan 15, 2015 11:33 AM
    govpur govpur Jan 22, 2015 9:41 AM Flag

    Need guidance from CNNX. Like the distro announcement, now with some visibility to future distro growth think the stock can recover.

  • Please go read press release and you will realize the actual gathering/storage assets are less than our Arrow/COLT Hub assets, although they have a pipeline as opposed to a rail facility. I would argue the rail connected to Colt/Arrow is better than pipeline as the west coast refineries is where you want them barrels going, not Guernsey to an oversupplied Cushing. Anyway, this was a $3B transaction, plus debt. Couple this with the Antero midstream market price and someone, somewhere has to realize that CEQP/CMLP are grossly undervalued. The market simply is not pricing CEQP correctly down here, IMO. Maybe this explains why the new CFO is a First Reserve guy. My gut tells me they want a deal. I still say SE would be the perfect fit. Look what they paid to be part of the PennEast pipeline, and guess who had a successful open season to connect right to it? Yes, Crestwood. Couple that with the fact their TETCO pipeline connects to Tres and that they have no Bakkken footprint while stating they want to grow liquids. It just seems to make sense, to me anyway.

  • Reply to

    CNNX vs AM

    by govpur Jan 15, 2015 11:33 AM
    govpur govpur Jan 20, 2015 2:21 PM Flag

    Personally, I think the writing is on the wall. CNX has already announced they are both doing a coal MLP and a spinoff, just leaving CNX as a gas play with no dividend and GP interests in coal MLP, CNNX, and spinco. At that point I think it is much easier for NBL to merge with CNX and jettison the coal interests. Just my opinion but seems to make sense.

  • Reply to

    CNNX vs AM

    by govpur Jan 15, 2015 11:33 AM
    govpur govpur Jan 20, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    I agree with your points. Had a great conversation with IR rep at CNNX and urge you to talk with them. The IDR's to GP will not kick in until there is growth in the distribution, so I think this is a great time to accumulate, right now. There will not be dilution and zero debt. I follow many MLP's and this is quite unique as most have significant debt and when drop downs happen they have to issue units and add even more debt. Not the case with CNNX. Also, and this is just my hunch- I believe CNX and NBL are going to merge once the coal MLP and spinoff are complete. Then CNNX will be the vehicle for all NBL's midstream assets in U.S., to include Niobrara, which are real gems. As far as CEQP I think someone is going to do an ETE type transaction where the GP is bought and the LP gets added to family. This is what ETE has done and outperformed almost everyone else, and they are paying attention, IMO. Good luck and keep the conversation going.

  • Thinking market is realizing CEQP will get taken out. ETE, SE or other large MLP could buy the GP, retain the LP interest,and drop the NGL business to their LP, ie SXL, RGP, SEP - you name it. Ken

  • Reply to

    rainbow please explain

    by juan_ton_amigo Jan 1, 2015 4:51 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 17, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Thank you for this post, as usual very insightful. Weather forecast for Midwest gets well below normal temperature end of next week. The forecaster believes this may stay awhile like last year, but we will see. May explain why NG recovered on Friday. I agree with all your points but interested why Canadian exports to U.S. and imported LNG, yes imported, have surged since December to the Northeast. Think it highlights the lack of infrastructure in the Northeast. I had moved my most of my E&P investments to midstream in August, anticipating a price drop. Thought I was pretty smart but all my midstream plays are down hard as well in the downturn. Anyway, still believe Northeast midstream is the only safe place until 2016 when all the points you make come to pass. Until all Canadian and LNG imports cease there is an investable lack of infrastructure, specifically in the Northeast. I own CEQP and CNNX but also like SE. I'll keep tracking UPL, COG, RRC as I believe long term they are winners as well. Thanks again. Ken

  • Reply to

    rainbow please explain

    by juan_ton_amigo Jan 1, 2015 4:51 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 15, 2015 12:12 PM Flag

    Rainbow, what do you think of today's 236 Bcf withdrawal? Pretty big move from 2's to 3.23 and do you think it is sustainable. I read a report showing that NG production will decline as oil rigs are laid down as in many areas, the gas is recovered and sold. With oil rigs coming down is that supportive of NG price? Looking for your thoughts on where we are at and if it changes your bearish case at all? Thanks and always appreciate your posts. Ken

  • A lot of good data points for CEQP in regards to Northeast storage, gas withdrawal, the move in NG but nothing seems to move the stock up. Guess the market is waiting to see if they raise distro. I hope they do. Still believe in long term of this company but it is hard in the wake of the endless price decline. Thought the new presentation was good. The RI LPG terminal is now listed as open, the R&D track came online in December, and Buckinghorse should open sometime very soon. They keep executing so just have to wait. Also, early next month is New York DEP meeting for increased LPG storage. If that gets approved it should move the stock as their is lack of adequate storage and will increase Crestwood's already leader position. Anyway, GLTA to all longs and I, for one, am not letting one unit go. Ken

  • govpur by govpur Jan 15, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Well, hoping to get a conversation started here. Been tracking both AM and CNNX since IPO's and bought CNNX over last couple days. Thought I had a deal at 22.50, then 21.95, then, 21.50, and ultimately 20.42. Have my position now just under IPO price, which I believe is a great entry. If you compare metrics against AM, which is up today vs CNNX down, there is really no choice. CNNX acreage dedication much larger, revenues much better, profitability much better, and absolutely no debt at CNNX. Cannot understand why it is being punished so bad- any thoughts out there? Glad to be a partner. Ken

  • Reply to

    delisting

    by runnonmt4560 Jan 8, 2015 12:08 PM
    govpur govpur Jan 8, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    ICE website shows press release. The stock will be suspended after the process completes. At least not BK.

WNR
36.32+0.31(+0.86%)Jan 27 4:02 PMEST

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