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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

govpur 398 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 12, 2015 5:46 PM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • Just listened to el pollo loco call and it was malo! Basically stated their customers are running from them to lower price alternatives and their franchisees won't accept lower menu prices. This has to be a plus for Del. Also, if you haven't, get on Del Twitter feed. Literally hundreds of posts from milleniels stating how. Great Del is. Been pretty bleak for us longs but there is a cavalry and they are coming.

  • Reply to

    neuberger adds 52m shares in oct

    by bigcudllyhunk Nov 12, 2015 8:51 AM
    govpur govpur Nov 12, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    Don't think you are taking into account that they owned CMLP shares. This accounts for the 52M but overall they decreased by 1 million. That's the take away

  • Reply to

    neuberger adds 52m shares in oct

    by bigcudllyhunk Nov 12, 2015 8:51 AM
    govpur govpur Nov 12, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    Yahoo shows they owned over 77 million as of 30 September when the shares converted. This filing shows that they reduced shares by approximately 1 million. Think I got it right but looking for confirmation? Also, on 11/10 looks like the mgt received another free load as "phantom units" issued. Lets see how quickly they dispose of them like they did in March when they got their annual free load. No insider buys since December of 2014 and they sell routinely as they get their undeserved free units. Don't worry, Phillips is doing great.

  • Reply to

    Big news on increased Permian role for CEPQ

    by margin321 Oct 28, 2015 7:08 AM
    govpur govpur Nov 3, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Listened to conference call and the Permian deal seems complicated. Analyst was trying to get answers on how revenue divided and when. As usual, more to meets the eye with Crestwood. I am out, but still follow this stock. Having a hard time accepting that First Reserve is doing this out of kindness. Also, why so little talk of the NGL business and no mention of Haynesville, Granite wash, California operations. Rail volumes flat, which is good I guess- just can't see them maintaining as pipeline and yet another rail terminal by PSX comes online. Lastly, the 600 million loss, yes 600, a little scary although most was goodwill.

  • Analyst community likes this stock and repeatedly states "above peer" metrics and best in class growth. Secondary oversubscribed. Yet, stock keeps going down. I don't understand. Mr. Levy needs to buy more shares to show support.

  • Reply to


    by harehau Oct 9, 2015 3:07 PM
    govpur govpur Oct 10, 2015 9:04 PM Flag

    It autocorrected to Hardhat, I wrote Harehu

  • Reply to


    by harehau Oct 9, 2015 3:07 PM
    govpur govpur Oct 10, 2015 9:03 PM Flag

    Hardhat, I was a former big time proponent of Crestwood but think this analysis totally disregards reality. Please read the latest piece from SA that discusses their DCF. It's terrible. They do not generate enough DCF to cover the "new" distribution and that does not include any growth capital. What the piece does not mention is that many of their assets will not generate the DCF the SA piece basis the analysis on. This includes ever reduced rates from bankrupt KWK as well as the Granite Wash/Haynesville assets that are in serious decline. Add that they overpaid for the ND rail hub and there is excess ND rail capacity as well as drilling pullbacks by Antero and the story gets pretty bleak. I met with investor relations in Houston this past January and literally begged them to communicate to MGT that their reality was bleak and nothing was done. Only endless stock, phantom stock, etch to this terrible MGT with absolutely no insider purchases. I had provided them with analysis from a friend of mine in the financial industry that basically said Crestwood needed to focus on ND and Marcellus alone and dispose all other assets so there was a clear story. NOTHING! I lost a small fortune on Crestwood and don't want the unrealistic hope that this 20% attracts. The distribution needs to be zero. Even then, they will not generate enough DCF to cover growth CAPEX and the debt will continue to increase until the banks, first reserve, et all finally say ENOUGH!. Don't worry, that fraudster Phillips will have done quite well by then. I specifically blame him for this fiasco. Guess he did not make enough at Enterprise before he concocted this scheme with First Reserve backing. BTW, they have done quite well selling Crestwood assets that nobody wanted, that Crestwood overpaid for. Nice racket and the fools, I mean me, that buy into this scheme deserve to lose their money. I am ashamed that I was a cheerleader for this junk and using this board to dissuade potential suckers from this

  • govpur govpur Aug 10, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    You are wrong. Virtually all the 20 somethings we sell to use twitter as opposed to FB. We just created a marketing push around twitter and it is easy to use and powerful. Plan on using twitter ads, especially now that NFL deal is in place. We sell weapon storage to the military and you can see @weapon_rack_ken

  • govpur by govpur Jul 23, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    The market cap of ARP is approx. 372 million and ATLS has 28 percent. That is 104 million and ATLS traded at 89 million market cap. Why is this out of whack- is it the debt load? Why does ATLS have a billion in debt after the Targa deal?

  • Reply to


    by govpur Jul 13, 2015 1:56 PM
    govpur govpur Jul 13, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    I respectfully disagree with you. Look, potential buyers have a window here. NAV had missed the rally since 2009 and has divested all non core at this point. I think once earnings make the turn, which they will, the street will re-evaluate NAV and it will be north of $40 per share. A buyer today can pay 30-35 and steal this. Icahn, et all will agree and International trucks are in better hands who can realize full potential. We disagree, that is fine, but take your profit on short side and be happy. U are 7 away from your target, be happy

  • Reply to


    by govpur Jul 13, 2015 1:56 PM
    govpur govpur Jul 13, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    Yes. GM was forced to divest in 2007 when they made the sale. Now those execs are at NAV. U r probably to young to remember 2007 when GM was dismantling the kitchen sink to stay alive. They want back in this business, son, and who else is out there!

  • I am laying out the theory that GM will buy NAV: 1. Many ex GM mgt now at NAV 2. GM wants to look like Daimler and will if they buy NAV 3. GM wants bigger presence in defense vehicles 4. GM will create a direct competitor to Jeep by reviving the International Scout and develop a line like Jeep around it.
    We know they are talking from the Forbes article and isn't it interesting that nothing came of that yet? I am all for this happening and will hold GM if they do a share purchase. BTW, this is exactly the bold action the market wants GM to take and I wouldn't be surprised if GM rallied on the announcement.

  • Reply to


    by poker_surfer Jul 8, 2015 9:28 PM
    govpur govpur Jul 10, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    Poker. You are wrong on this one. This is an investment, not a trade. Good riddance

  • govpur govpur Jul 6, 2015 9:40 PM Flag

    I have been thinking the same thing. Why this weird article last week and no announcement? Why recreate the closed Chevy heavy truck division when you could buy navistar with 100 year old brand and totally separate desler network that you could also migrate the Isuzu partnership to? Maybe GM wants the whole company and looks like Daimler when done. Makes sense to me anyway and maybe is reason GM scoffed at Fiat as they already have this in queu!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • govpur govpur Jun 14, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    Great call! Mhr added on June 11. Position up to almost 19 percent.

  • June 30th vote on merger and I intend to be there

  • govpur govpur Jun 11, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Provide a link for this purchase please. I cannot locate.

  • Reply to

    poker_surfer technical update?

    by xdwingdx Jun 8, 2015 11:37 AM
    govpur govpur Jun 10, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    Barron's has 63 million ebitda for 2015 with 40 million shares after merger. Put average multiple on that and you get 19-21 share price. Think I will go by their numbers!

  • Reply to


    by kiralyz5 Jun 5, 2015 5:26 AM
    govpur govpur Jun 5, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    Well, as a salesman for over 20 years I can tell you that they will be right eventually! I think it is this year. Look, all the cost cuts and reorg has taken place. We are coming out of that phase right now. I know wall street and investors want certainty but in reality, it is going to be lumpy for awhile. The fact that revenues maintained and losses were stemmed with reorg, trouble in South America, strong dollar, etc. shows you that something good is happening. Now they bring in this PCAR guy. You get some improvement in Class 8 and this bird starts humming. Also, they stated on call that Bus biz shines next two quarters which wasn't reflective this quarter. To quote Jimmy Stewart "Potters' not selling, he's buying". And that is what I am doing. I have made two purchases last two days. not at lows but brought my basis down considerably. I believe in management and my friend who works there- by the way he was our HS valedictorian (if that spelled wrong you know why I wasn't) and smartest guy I personally know- mech engineer from Uof I- that the place is completely different from before reorg with relentless focus on cost and profitability. Anyway, there you have it. You sell and I buy. However, for the company, employees, and US manufacturing in general- I hope I am right.

  • Reply to


    by govpur May 31, 2015 10:06 PM
    govpur govpur Jun 5, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    Visited a Del on a work trip to Utah this week. It was on 4th street in downtown Salt Lake. Place was very modern with a kid play area and very nice. The best part for me was that the food was fantastic. Much better than Taco Bell and not really comparable IMO. I had the fish tacos, grilled chicken taco and churros. I would put those fish taco's against anybody's especially with al the fresh ingredients on them. Anyway, asked two of my customers for closest one and one said "Del taco sounds good right now" and the other explained that Del is better than Taco Bell, which I agree. Anyway, I hope Del has a plan to add alcoholic beverages like TB is testing in Chicago (saw on CNBC). Del's food would go well with a Mexican brew and/or Margarita. That would attract a lot of millennial's and road dogs like me who want an adult beverage when I eat dinner. On that note, had to drive from Salt Lake to Las Vegas and many exits had Del's listed on "available food" right next to hotels. I tend to stay and eat at these type exits so having alcohol would attract a lot of road dogs to eat there if they offered. Just my opinion.

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