Spoke with IR today and was happy to hear that they share our frustration about the share price. Stated that the recent insider sales were to fill tax obligations which is understandable. Anyway, really added today after speaking today and am hopeful improving cracks, Rin credit from CA operations, and surging asphalt demand will result in better share price. Not even considering DK buyout in investment thesis. Good luck to longs. I own WNR as well.
Good post however crack spreads have improved dramatically this quarter so far and summer driving season ahead of us. Gas and distillate draws been huge last two weeks. The DK CEO had been spouting for 2 years he wants to expand refining footprint. Last May he took 48 percent of ALJ and the prohibition for taking the rest is now off. Something is going to happen. Either the market is throwing a tantrum because it did not happen the exact day the restriction ended or maybe now the market thinks there won't be a premium. Who knows but I am here for the ride!
I think it will be announced Monday. We are past the waiting period and with the decline in ALJ the ratio to DK is now quite attractive. Even with a premium to $9 it is still below the .65 ratio the CEO often talks about
Well said but hard to time. Can anyone on this board tell me one other industry currently that has declining input costs and record demand for its products? Earlier this week I went to a chevy dealership and the salesman told me the only vehicles selling are trucks and SUV's. Record Products volume will be what ultimately stabilizes oil in the future and refineries are the ONLY place to be in energy sector while that plays out!
Google "Howard Weil refinery news" and click on pdf of weekly refinery report. Crack spreads are on fire since 31 March. In all regions they are above 4Q and 1Q averages and going toward highs in 3Q and 2Q of 2015. This means refineries are going great! Couple that with massive draws in gas and distillates while crude inventories continue to swell and you have great set up for rest of summer. Our input, crude, is still building while our output is experiencing record demand! This is why insiders are buying- they see the picture clearly
WNR investors should know the $81 million plus possible additional $13 million just raised from WNRL will be used to reduce debt and actually increase equity position in WNRL. They discussed this on conference call in detail. The dropdown of either Bobcat or pipeline/terminal assets from NTI is now guaranteed and will happen in 3Q. Watch the analysts all of a sudden wake up to reduced leverage although company is pounding the table that they have intended to do so all along. The recent purchases by Chairman Foster and CEO Stevens are encouraging.
Just went positive after being down all day. Refiners should recover some of this down move today. Don't forget that WNR stockpiled 67 million dollars of crude at February lows they will be turning into cash this quarter. Don't let GD Goldman Sachs play you if they are behind these wild swings. Who knows but plausible.
Does anyone have news or data from the MS conference today? There is no webcast but hoping it has same effect as yesterday Citi conference. RBOB barely down after big move yesterday and crude unchanged. This is bullish for refiners but all getting crushed. I added today and brought down basis, yielding 6.4 for me, which is nice payday to wait out this volatility. Last week has been a ride through H E double toothpicks on top of a snake!
Mr. Beyersdorfer needs to be commended for this presentation. He is schooling these analysts, I mean schooling them! It is clear there are misconceptions about what the opportunity is for WNR. My take away is that these analysts think there is too much competition for the barrels WNR needs, ie pipeline out of the basin. Mr. B basically torpedoed that relentlessly and tried to show them on the asset map how the WNR/WNRL system works. Bottom line: Bobcat gives WNR complete control of oil from rig to refinery gate. This is unique. Also, WNR is one of only 3 refineries east of Phoenix that can make the grade of Gas the AZ market uses. This also needs to be known. I am out, hope these posts were helpful and informative.
What a great job he is doing! Telling analysts right now what their Mexico strategy is- this is not on anyone's radar and analysts seem surprised. Also, in future they will consider other refineries that fit their criteria. This stock is TSO ten years ago and if you buy today you are on ground floor.
If you are long please listen to the replay. Our SVP is killing it! He must of read my first post- he is going through the points one by one, holy cow!
Webcast at 1345 CST today. Hope they talk about how all their barrels are pipeline connected to advantaged basins that ARE NEAR their refineries. I personally think this is what distinguishes WNR from the other inland refineries (DK, CVRR and HFC). These three still rail, truck, barge in significant amounts of their barrels which eat margins. HFC is the best operator but has no retail, which I want. DK has decent retail but their refineries have lost money the last two quarters and they are buying ALJ, which is also losing money. CVRR has also lost money the last two quarters and they have no retail. Bottom line, WNR is the MUST HAVE inland refiner and I believe they can solidify that position today with a good presentation.
Wow! Very, very bullish for WNR. Sentiment is changing and as I have been predicting, by Memorial Day refiners will be heroes of market. From CNBC:
Industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.45 million barrels to 543.1 million barrels during the week ended May 6, enough to meet global crude demand for almost a week.
Motor gasoline stocks also fell 1.2 million barrels, and distillate fuel inventories were down 1.6 million barrels.
All in all I thought a pretty good call. Anyone thinking this is going BK is foolish. In 2Q they will not have to spend one penny in CAPEX plus their new partner signed on for 4 new wells. If the JV keeps going they won't need to access cash until late 3rd, or possible 4th quarter. This is good news. Plus, they mentioned that they have received multiple calls on the IL basin assets but none of prices have been right so far. By year end this will be sold to buy back debt at reduced prices. Lastly, banks don't take equity for debt if a company is on the brink of BK. They are funded through 2018 at a minimum today, much longer if IL assets sell.
RBOB is up one percent this morning while WTI is down marginally. I look for this to continue like it did in 2015. Also, and maybe more importantly, the WTI-Brent spread is back over one dollar this morning. I also think this spread will widen as Nigerian crude goes offline. Both these data points are bullish for WNR
And a very nice distillate draw. How strong demand for refined products and bulging inventories not more bullish for refiners is just crazy. By Memorial Day this madness will be in rear view mirror. Best to all longs and optimist can go ahead and short again!