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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

govpur 391 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 10, 2015 1:07 PM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • govpur govpur Aug 10, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    You are wrong. Virtually all the 20 somethings we sell to use twitter as opposed to FB. We just created a marketing push around twitter and it is easy to use and powerful. Plan on using twitter ads, especially now that NFL deal is in place. We sell weapon storage to the military and you can see @weapon_rack_ken

  • govpur by govpur Jul 23, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    The market cap of ARP is approx. 372 million and ATLS has 28 percent. That is 104 million and ATLS traded at 89 million market cap. Why is this out of whack- is it the debt load? Why does ATLS have a billion in debt after the Targa deal?

  • Reply to

    GM WILL BUY NAV THEORY

    by govpur Jul 13, 2015 1:56 PM
    govpur govpur Jul 13, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    I respectfully disagree with you. Look, potential buyers have a window here. NAV had missed the rally since 2009 and has divested all non core at this point. I think once earnings make the turn, which they will, the street will re-evaluate NAV and it will be north of $40 per share. A buyer today can pay 30-35 and steal this. Icahn, et all will agree and International trucks are in better hands who can realize full potential. We disagree, that is fine, but take your profit on short side and be happy. U are 7 away from your target, be happy

  • Reply to

    GM WILL BUY NAV THEORY

    by govpur Jul 13, 2015 1:56 PM
    govpur govpur Jul 13, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    Yes. GM was forced to divest in 2007 when they made the sale. Now those execs are at NAV. U r probably to young to remember 2007 when GM was dismantling the kitchen sink to stay alive. They want back in this business, son, and who else is out there!

  • I am laying out the theory that GM will buy NAV: 1. Many ex GM mgt now at NAV 2. GM wants to look like Daimler and will if they buy NAV 3. GM wants bigger presence in defense vehicles 4. GM will create a direct competitor to Jeep by reviving the International Scout and develop a line like Jeep around it.
    We know they are talking from the Forbes article and isn't it interesting that nothing came of that yet? I am all for this happening and will hold GM if they do a share purchase. BTW, this is exactly the bold action the market wants GM to take and I wouldn't be surprised if GM rallied on the announcement.

  • Reply to

    Departing

    by poker_surfer Jul 8, 2015 9:28 PM
    govpur govpur Jul 10, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    Poker. You are wrong on this one. This is an investment, not a trade. Good riddance

  • govpur govpur Jul 6, 2015 9:40 PM Flag

    I have been thinking the same thing. Why this weird article last week and no announcement? Why recreate the closed Chevy heavy truck division when you could buy navistar with 100 year old brand and totally separate desler network that you could also migrate the Isuzu partnership to? Maybe GM wants the whole company and looks like Daimler when done. Makes sense to me anyway and maybe is reason GM scoffed at Fiat as they already have this in queu!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • govpur govpur Jun 14, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    Great call! Mhr added on June 11. Position up to almost 19 percent.

  • June 30th vote on merger and I intend to be there

  • govpur govpur Jun 11, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Provide a link for this purchase please. I cannot locate.

  • Reply to

    poker_surfer technical update?

    by xdwingdx Jun 8, 2015 11:37 AM
    govpur govpur Jun 10, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    Barron's has 63 million ebitda for 2015 with 40 million shares after merger. Put average multiple on that and you get 19-21 share price. Think I will go by their numbers!

  • Reply to

    Oversold

    by kiralyz5 Jun 5, 2015 5:26 AM
    govpur govpur Jun 5, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    Well, as a salesman for over 20 years I can tell you that they will be right eventually! I think it is this year. Look, all the cost cuts and reorg has taken place. We are coming out of that phase right now. I know wall street and investors want certainty but in reality, it is going to be lumpy for awhile. The fact that revenues maintained and losses were stemmed with reorg, trouble in South America, strong dollar, etc. shows you that something good is happening. Now they bring in this PCAR guy. You get some improvement in Class 8 and this bird starts humming. Also, they stated on call that Bus biz shines next two quarters which wasn't reflective this quarter. To quote Jimmy Stewart "Potters' not selling, he's buying". And that is what I am doing. I have made two purchases last two days. not at lows but brought my basis down considerably. I believe in management and my friend who works there- by the way he was our HS valedictorian (if that spelled wrong you know why I wasn't) and smartest guy I personally know- mech engineer from Uof I- that the place is completely different from before reorg with relentless focus on cost and profitability. Anyway, there you have it. You sell and I buy. However, for the company, employees, and US manufacturing in general- I hope I am right.

  • Reply to

    TACO VS LOCO

    by govpur May 31, 2015 10:06 PM
    govpur govpur Jun 5, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    Visited a Del on a work trip to Utah this week. It was on 4th street in downtown Salt Lake. Place was very modern with a kid play area and very nice. The best part for me was that the food was fantastic. Much better than Taco Bell and not really comparable IMO. I had the fish tacos, grilled chicken taco and churros. I would put those fish taco's against anybody's especially with al the fresh ingredients on them. Anyway, asked two of my customers for closest one and one said "Del taco sounds good right now" and the other explained that Del is better than Taco Bell, which I agree. Anyway, I hope Del has a plan to add alcoholic beverages like TB is testing in Chicago (saw on CNBC). Del's food would go well with a Mexican brew and/or Margarita. That would attract a lot of millennial's and road dogs like me who want an adult beverage when I eat dinner. On that note, had to drive from Salt Lake to Las Vegas and many exits had Del's listed on "available food" right next to hotels. I tend to stay and eat at these type exits so having alcohol would attract a lot of road dogs to eat there if they offered. Just my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Oversold

    by kiralyz5 Jun 5, 2015 5:26 AM
    govpur govpur Jun 5, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    I agree this is overdone. It is funny how the market values companies. Take ZOES, okay a food company but it has a 700 million dollar market cap on 60 million in quarterly sales and it broke even. We have 2.7 billion in quarterly revenues, lost 64 million but forecasted for profit by year end. Our market cap now under 2 Billion. Seems whacky to me but what do I know. I am just holding this for the long term.

  • Reply to

    TACO VS LOCO

    by govpur May 31, 2015 10:06 PM
    govpur govpur Jun 1, 2015 8:34 PM Flag

    Well, took the plunge with TACO today at 15.98. I finally decided on TACO as talked with a friend who are at the LOCO in summit,IL which is now closed. Anyway, he claimed it was expensive and not that great. I had already determined Neither is a CMG so del is better choice for the following, IMO: taco would have to trade at 19 for same valuation of loco, amazing how revenue metrics are similar in these two names so taco much better buy. Also taco has breakfast which is growing where loco does not. Lastly, taco has a real chance to compete with Taco Bell and grow to their size where loco does not due to cost per location. Glad to be aboard

  • govpur govpur Jun 1, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    The strategy is to mitigate capital investment and risk associated with engine development. My understanding is that the liability issues with engines is very high. Teaming with CMI is not NAV specific. All the majors are doing it. That being said, NAV will always produce engines. The Melrose facility is belting them out right now. MGT is finding the right balance. Long term, look at the restructuring that has taken place with the benefits about to be realized. Your analysis is good and I appreciate it, but don't think you are appreciating what the profit drivers going forward will be. That is why you should invest today. I believe they will regain market share with a streamlined cost structure enabling profits to flow to bottom line. That is why Gabelli and Icahn are here- they see this as a cash cow going forward.

  • govpur by govpur May 31, 2015 10:06 PM Flag

    I was a LOCO holder and sold before earnings, thankfully. With the huge drop I have been considering buying back in but thinking TACO as well. The E/V's are much closer now so maybe some of the excellent posters here can answer some questions. 1. Quarterly Revenues are similar but TACO has more stores and sss growth is lower at TACO. Is that the smaller check size at TACO? On that note, why is EPS so small? Even with debt payment reduction, where are the earnings? 2. There will be 40MM shares when merger is complete, is there also a secondary planned? 3. Why did they just close the Houston location if TX is a planned growth area?. Lastly, been many years since I was at a Del Taco. I used to go to one in Oxnard, CA when I was stationed at Port Hueneme. It was then considered basically junk food and really cheap. Has that changed? I looked at menu online and aside from some fresh offerings it looked the same from 20 years ago and the burger options seem to dumb it down even more. Guess LOCO seems more like a Chipotle to me than TACO. Am I just plum wrong on that now? Thanks in advance.

  • govpur govpur May 30, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Talked with a friend who works at NAV as I did not understand your comments on parts business. He stated that it is absolutely untrue and parts is still and will be s significant part of their story. Either clarify or give facts, please

  • Reply to

    Any rumors of buyout lately?

    by maxcomfort3000 May 29, 2015 1:06 PM
    govpur govpur May 30, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    I agree that Daimler is a no go. I do believe vlkay or Cnhi will make a run at NAV. Mainly because neither has nafta sales and both are set in Europe. NAV had nafta sales and more importantly, a great dealer network. Basically, if you look at either coverage map, NAV is perfect fit. I do not believe PCAR is as good because duplication in Europe and market cap is 22 billion. Much harder to swallow than NAV, imo. Bottom line, if not now, when? In a year I believe NAV discount to peers will diminish if they execute, which I believe they are and will.

  • Reply to

    Any rumors of buyout lately?

    by maxcomfort3000 May 29, 2015 1:06 PM
    govpur govpur May 29, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Volkswagen is rumored. I think they will- very successful for Daimler to own Freightliner and Mack. They could have 15-20 percent of the lucrative US market in one fell swoop

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