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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

govpur 323 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 10:07 AM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • Well, as of yesterday both FCG and FUM (the index) have sold out of KWK. This has been the heavy volume and selling. Seeing a near term recovery to .30-.40 with no news. Higher if news on deal is forthcoming. Bottom line: volume and selling pressure should be less with KWK out of FUM.

  • This is most likely outcome as Tokyo Gas made a long term investment in KWK and can handle debt, avoid costly legal wrangling of BK, and wants gas/LNG. It will be a cash buyout and assumption of all debt.

  • Throw us suffering shareholders a bone and sell remaining interests in Permian acreage to Eni and the un-named partner as well as the 2016 and beyond hedges. Debt would be reduced and the story gets simpler, IMO: cash flow producing in Barnett and Horseshoe Canyon, and possible partner or outright sale of HRB and LNG. In the end, if KWK reduces a large portion of their debt and is a cash flowing company with Barnett/Horseshoe. There are multiple paths to have a good story but these two sales seem the easiest. HRB would be then given the proper time to form a JV or outright sale.

  • Spent a good part of morning researching GASL and FCG holdings/past holdings. It indeed does look both liquidated their KWK positions. GASL had a direct position and no longer does with holdings updated for 12/22/14. They do have a sizeable position in FUM, which had KWK. FUM is the Revere Index which FCG and GASL track (mirror holdings). FUM, updated for 12/19 no longer shows KWK as a holding. As I stated in an earlier post, FCG shows their percentage dropping from 2.42 to .82 (percent of ETF holdings) which should mean they liquidated most of their position in addition to percentage being lowered due to price drop. You do have to dig, but all this info is on the Diexion 3X website (choose GASL) and Revere page (need to link to both FUM and FCG). Hope this helps the individual investor understand what happened Friday at market close as I was saddened/shocked as anyone to see the price close at .3145 and then immediately drop to .27 when I refreshed my screen. I do agree with the statement that we need to see who bought several million shares as this was obviously an arranged sale. Only speculation as to why but hopefully it is a positive. Disclosure: I own KWK and still believe there is value here. Investor relations did return my phone call before I invested and was part of reason I did so. IR rep was extremely knowledgeable and very real in her discussion with me. Highlights: 1. Dardens own alot of company and are committed to seeing share price appreciate. 2. Toby's sale was triggered by shares he pledged to a bank and covenent broken. 3. The earliest debt coming due is April 2016 but various triggers with lenders move that up to October 2015. She made absolutely no guarantees or promises, etc. but again was very knowledgeable. That being said, my takeaway was that they are going to TRY to work a deal that preserves the shares. Ken

  • Reply to

    FCG

    by karen.austin2316 Dec 19, 2014 9:35 PM
    govpur govpur Dec 20, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    Karen, you need to verify your data or recall your post. On FCG website they update holdings as of 12/19 and they still show KWK. Now the percentage has gone from .82 from 2.42 on September 30. Not sure if that is due to price drop, however. I did not verify Direxion but putting this out is wrong unless you can back up. There was very heavy volume on Friday and it does look like someone liquidated but we will have to wait for a 13F to really know. Ken

  • Reply to

    FCG

    by karen.austin2316 Dec 19, 2014 9:35 PM
    govpur govpur Dec 19, 2014 10:08 PM Flag

    Well, how about a link

  • Reply to

    FCG

    by karen.austin2316 Dec 19, 2014 9:35 PM
    govpur govpur Dec 19, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    Where you getting this data?

  • This is very good news for us. Enbridge plan pushed to 2017, at earliest, and now no EPD. Producers are still going to pump below $40 crude as it is still economic in core. The only way to get that production out is rail, PERIOD. Crestwood has best gathering in core and biggest, by volume, rail loading facility. I hereby predict that Kinder or EPD put in a bid for CMLP/CEQP. Both KMI and EPD, on last conference call, stated that areas on the map where they don't have a presence are ripe for acquisition. Just pulled both their asset maps and neither have nothing (nada, zero, zilch) in the bakken. Add northeast pipeline transportation and all CMLP assets fit nicely with either. Market is sniffing this out and in the immortal words of George Bailey "Potter isn't selling, he's buying". Think the Kinder and EPD of the market realize now is the time to buy assets at accretive prices. Just my ramblings but plausible, yes? Ken

  • govpur govpur Dec 11, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    These guys showing up is usually a good indicator to buy. I did. Ken

  • ML puts $12 target on. Shows underlying strength of CMLP so good for us all. CMLP should buy at 10-11 and we would all benefit. If they ever do an investor day I would go just to ask the question

  • Reply to

    CMLP NEEDS TO BUY CEQP

    by govpur Dec 10, 2014 6:43 PM
    govpur govpur Dec 10, 2014 11:59 PM Flag

    Pipeline to where exactly? All of crestwood's supplies are railed to east and west coast refineries. The refineries are purchasing at the COLT hub and paying for loading. There is no pipe to the coasts: Only to Cushing and the gulf where it has to be transported to the coasts at an ultimate higher cost than rail direct. There are reports that BAkken crude is economic sub 30. Add 9-12 for rail to east and west coast and $40 can still be economic, particularly in the acreage of our arrow gathering. Oil breaks $50 and opec calls a special meeting to cut production. Oil rallies and market wakes up to fact that certain midstream are better than others, like crestwood

  • Think the market would cheer this move, especially if the price was 10 or 11. It would simplify the capital structure, remove IDR's, and be immediately accretive to CMLP. This is the reason EPD trades at such a higher multiple. In fact, look at all the non GP MLP's and they have held up better than MLP's with GP's. This, I believe, is the next wave coming. Similar situation occurred in 2012 when gas collapsed resulting in EPD, MWE, etc. buying out the GP. It can and will happen again and then CMLP will trade at proper valuation as underlying commodity prices correct. Ken

  • Slew of new form 4's just hit

  • Reply to

    PHILLIPS ON FIRE

    by govpur Dec 9, 2014 3:19 PM
    govpur govpur Dec 9, 2014 3:37 PM Flag

    Resuming distribution increases for 2015!! Okay, that is my last post- I need a cigarette. Ken

  • Reply to

    PHILLIPS ON FIRE

    by govpur Dec 9, 2014 3:19 PM
    govpur govpur Dec 9, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    CMLP leverage under 4x by end of 2015!! No exposure to prices n ref to oil, NG, and NGL. Man, the market has this all wrong. I want to know who the hell is selling and BUYING down here!!

  • Reply to

    PHILLIPS ON FIRE

    by govpur Dec 9, 2014 3:19 PM
    govpur govpur Dec 9, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    Buckinghorse opening 3rd week of January!!

  • He is systematically torpedoing all bear arguments against CMLP. Glad I held, hopefully, yesterday was the bottom!. Going into sit and wait mode. Need to hold this for next 5 years

  • Reply to

    NEW PRESENTATION TODAY

    by govpur Dec 9, 2014 10:38 AM
    govpur govpur Dec 9, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    Henry Hub is natural gas pricing so that is correct. LNG should not be tied to crude.

  • Reply to

    NEW PRESENTATION TODAY

    by govpur Dec 9, 2014 10:38 AM
    govpur govpur Dec 9, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    Not sure where you heard that LNG tracks crude, it shouldn't. RBN states that NGL's track crude wrongly, a sentiment I agree with. IMO, LNG should track NG with netback to producer reflective of transportation and receiver (Japan utilities, etc.) paying liquefaction and ship transport to receipt point. Go on Veresen's website as their IR presentation does a great job explaining who gets $ along the way. Good news for CMLP is that we get compression, transportation, and storage fees along the way. This is what Mr. Phillips talks about when he states extracting revenue across the value chain. As far as NGL's there is a great debate what it should be pegged to but oil has won out. Just look at OKE against the WTO price and you can see the correlation. I agree with the crowd that states NGLS's should neither be tied to NG or WTI. Ken

  • Okay, so I picked myself off the floor and threw away the scotch. The new presentation has some interesting highlights. 1. They now list the Rhode Island NGL terminal as in service. Quietly building out their Northeast expansion even while NY delays ruling. This is good and there are really only two other competitors with same scale, Enterprise and a private company. Sea 3 is the name. 2. Now shows the R and D track at COLT as December, meaning we should be seeing a press release on this any day. It showed as 1Q 2015 on last presentation before this. 3. Gives a great, in depth look at opportunities around Tres, now with Brookfield as a partner. If you believe in LNG and Mexico exports, as I do, then this is very encouraging. Not in the presentation, but I sincerely hope they consider selling all "non core" assets like Granite Wash, Barnett, and Haynesville. This would make the story even better and reduce leverage, both of which the market is basically demanding today. I have a very large position in CEQP and it has been disheartening to watch the relentless slide. You have to believe on the long term strategy and Mr. Phillips, and team's, ability to pull off. Frankly, I do on both counts even in the face of declining commodity costs. So I plan on holding and collecting my distributions while waiting. Mr. Phillips starts the webcast at 1:55 central time today, hope he adds color to above and more. Ken

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