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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

govpur 52 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • Longs should read the TSO and ALJ earnings releases. Good news for WNR in both. ALJ states Midland differential has improved significantly recently and good demand in southwest. TSO states north MIDCON (NTI) advantaged as well as strong gasoline demand. Both state distillate demand is picking up as from farming, which started late. Will WNR go down again, who know, but thing 2Q is shaping up nicely and the stock should recover. The dividend is not threatened at all! Cash on conference call date had already increased by 20 million and they have over 67 million in inventory they bought at February lows they will be moving into production. This move may be shaking out all weak hands before a move up. Everyone is forecasting record breaking gas consumption this year.

  • From 8K:
    "Share Repurchase Program
    Under the $25 million share repurchase authorization announced in March 2016, the Company repurchased 86,679 shares of common stock during the fiscal first
    quarter of 2016 at an average price of $10.79 per share for an aggregate cost of approximately $0.9 million. Approximately $24.1 million remains under this
    authorization. Del Taco remains committed to enhancing long-term shareholder returns through all the means at its disposal including opportunistic repurchases of
    common stock and warrants".

    There are now 38,715,746 shares outstanding. The remainder of the authorization represents over 7 percent of the float. THIS IS HUGE and not priced in.

  • Reply to

    Great Quarter

    by govpur May 2, 2016 4:18 PM
    govpur govpur May 2, 2016 9:47 PM Flag

    I agree with you completely. They seem to be getting no credit for building the right foundation for the hockey stick growth we all want in 2017 and beyond. The barbell pricing is magnificent for this market while they optimize all operating metrics. The new stores will operate at a high level from jump street. Suggest all kings listen to call. Lastly the buyback will mitigate any dilution from warrants if they ever get in the money and are exercised. Otherwise, they will lower share count and boost EPS. Either way, the dilution argument someone made here last year is over.

  • Reply to

    Great Quarter

    by govpur May 2, 2016 4:18 PM
    govpur govpur May 2, 2016 5:28 PM Flag

    Only 900k of 25 million buyback so far! Yes!! Bank interest rate reduced. It is all good

  • Reply to

    Great Quarter

    by govpur May 2, 2016 4:18 PM
    govpur govpur May 2, 2016 5:08 PM Flag

    We are on ground floor. This is long term hold and forget. Every metric is going up and growth outlook is great

  • May not be showing in stock price but this company is doing everything right

  • Considering REXX but concerned about share dilution with recent balance sheet transactions. Any thoughts on that here? Does it cap future earnings potential if/when NG recovers?

  • Reply to

    Reporting earnings a month earlier

    by brad_welsh Apr 1, 2016 8:58 AM
    govpur govpur Apr 6, 2016 3:54 PM Flag

    First of all you are wrong. I have confirmed that their policy is no buybacks 15 days prior to quarter end through two days after earnings release. No buybacks since middle of March yet average daily volume has been increasing. DK will have basically 73 days to buy starting May 8th. 125 million is a huge amount considering DK market cap so selling here is foolish. Where else you going to find an organic buyer like this. That is a bid to this stock pretty much all year long. Plus, low capex thru 2019 meaning all earnings will flow to bottom line. For reference, look at a 7 year chart of TSO, that is what we have here. Buy and freaking hold, chief smoke!

  • govpur govpur Apr 6, 2016 9:40 AM Flag

    Read the WMB press release. DEAL is ON! They are not backing out and expect to close in 2nd Q. As an ETE unit holder I am very pleased with WMB actions. They are protecting WMB shareholders and us, ultimately, by trying to stop preferred. KC should have never done that and no one is talking about how the addition of WMB helps governance and maybe, just maybe, keeps KC in line. In 3-5 years when combined entities are rolling and oil is over $75 none of this matters and we will be part of an amazing energy company.

  • Reply to

    A better understanding

    by tme812 Mar 29, 2016 11:08 AM
    govpur govpur Mar 29, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    Did some math regarding TRP/CPGX and hoping this board can help me understand price differential. CPGX owns 84.3% of OpCo. If you take the 13 billion TRP paid that means OpCo was taken over for $15.42 Billion. CPPL portion of OpCo is 15.7%. This means CPPL should be worth $2.422 Billion. The current enterprise value of CPPL is $2.002 Billion. That means there is a $420 million variance between what TRP just paid and what CPPL is trading for. I bought today because of this variance. Once the situation clears up and additional drop downs are identified, I believe CPPL will go up quickly. Today, you get it at not only a significant discount to growth but also a substantial discount to what TRP paid. OpCo is OpCo whether part of TRP or CPPL.

  • Reply to

    Does anyone beside me

    by eusdond Mar 25, 2016 8:47 AM
    govpur govpur Mar 25, 2016 6:51 PM Flag

    I agree it is posturing but to what end? Nobody is fooled in this environment. Ken Lay was posturing right til the end and afterwards but what did that matter. Not comparing the two but if after the offer they "discovered" additional problems then put it on the table and let the boards work out an equitable solution. What KW is going right now is wrongheaded and makes a solution all but impossible

  • Reply to

    Does anyone beside me

    by eusdond Mar 25, 2016 8:47 AM
    govpur govpur Mar 25, 2016 2:19 PM Flag

    The One thing no one is discussing here or in the media is that WMB may be a bankrupt enterprise. WPZ does not cover their distributions and the recent ACMP acquisition is under water. IMO this may explain the recent unexplainable events. ETE due diligence on merger was faulty and is real reason the CFO was fired. ETE has now embarked on a "scorched earth" policy per Bloomberg to convince WMB shareholders not to accept but Williams and institutions know this is the only way to extract $ out of WMB. 2 billion was floated to WMB but they still would not agree, WHY? The WMB board knows that multiple basins that ACMP operates in are uneconomical now and at the forward strip. Couple that with a am courts siding on upstream side and you can reduce the REAL reasons. ETE has come to reality and thus explains their actions. These thoughts are my own and I am a former ETE unit holder. Been looking to get back in but can't get away from above. Not sure if all is priced in at 7: 4 maybe but one article did suggest one option for ETE to get out of deal without penalty is to declare BK.

  • govpur govpur Mar 25, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    Yes, company should be renamed "Travel Centers lubed by HPT America". KThis would be fitting. Listen to the SUN earnings call. An analyst asked why not sell and lease locations to/from a REIT and the CEO said that model is complete shareholder value destruction. All TA shareholders should be aware what is really happening here. This company is so alluring but completely uninvestable! Management should be ashamed of what they are being used for and should disclose in every call that they solely exist for the benefit of HPT! Why is this not illegal? Where is the SEC?

  • govpur by govpur Mar 23, 2016 5:08 PM Flag

    Can anyone confirm that TA owns QSL? Auction closed I believe with no additional offers. Thanks

  • govpur govpur Mar 20, 2016 1:17 PM Flag

    I agree. After reading the filing I personally believe it sets up for Delek Israel to sell their remaining 4 million shares. Not bad as an institution will most likely take them or maybe even DK itself which is great either way. Plus, the Saudis just mentioned they are looking for more US refining assets after splitting with Shell. This story is going unnoticed but I think it is huge. What better way to put final nail in US shale then buying US refining assets and feeding with Saudi crude? Anyway, both our refineries were built for imported crude originally so who knows.

  • govpur govpur Mar 18, 2016 7:54 PM Flag

    Think this headline is misleading. Here is verbiage from S3. No stock is being offered right now. If someone can add to conversation thank you:
    We may from time to time offer and sell shares of our common stock covered by this prospectus. We may offer our common stock in amounts, at prices and on terms set forth in an applicable prospectus supplement to this prospectus at the time of offering. Our net proceeds from the sale of our common stock also will be set forth in the applicable prospectus supplement. In addition, one or more selling stockholders to be named in a prospectus supplement may offer and sell our common stock from time to time in such amounts and on such terms that will be determined at the time of any such offering. We will not receive any of the proceeds from the sale by any selling stockholder of the shares of our common stock. We will bear all fees and expenses incident to registering shares of our common stock covered by this prospectus.

    Our common stock may be offered and sold directly by us, or by any selling security holder to be identified in any accompanying prospectus supplement to or through one or more underwriters, dealers and agents or directly to purchasers or through a combination of these methods, on a continuous or delayed basis. The applicable prospectus supplement will provide the names of any underwriters, dealers or agents, the specific terms of the plan of distribution, any over-allotment option and any applicable underwriting discounts and commissions.

    This prospectus may not be used to sell shares of our common stock unless accompanied by a prospectus supplement describing the method and specific terms of the offering. The prospectus supplement or any related free writing prospectus may add, update or change information contained in this prospectus. We urge you to read carefully this prospectus, the applicable prospectus supplement, any related free writing prospectus, and any documents we incorporate by reference before you make your investment decision.

    Our common stock, par value $0.01 per share, is listed and currently traded on the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) under the symbol “DK.” The last reported sale price of our common stock on the NYSE on March 16, 2016 was $15.14 per share.

  • Reply to

    Loading the boat here......

    by sargeantfurry Mar 14, 2016 10:15 AM
    govpur govpur Mar 15, 2016 8:04 AM Flag

    At the end of this year there will be close to 800K barrels per day pipeline takeaway/local refinery demand. There are forecasts that say Bakken production will dip below 1M/day. Let's assume 1M. That means there will be 200K per day for CBR. PSX and TSO developed their own terminals to feed west coast refineries. When the CEQP contracts roll off in 2017 that terminal will look for spot price shipments. That is my only point. I would be interested in CEQP again ONLY if this terrible mgt is replaced and the new team basically sold/disposed assets at any price, cut dividend completely, and focused company around transmission pipe, storage, and NGL marketing- basically Northeast and West Texas assets. That, unfortunately, will never happen so I now watch this slow moving CBR trainwreck from the sidelines.

  • Reply to

    Loading the boat here......

    by sargeantfurry Mar 14, 2016 10:15 AM
    govpur govpur Mar 14, 2016 10:40 AM Flag

    Suggest you read today's RBN article on economics of Bakken CBR. Bottom line is when ETP pipeline opens later this year there will be no barrels for COLT hub to ship when contracts roll off in 2017. PSX has their own terminal and TSO plans the same. Look at DAKP when you go spot shipping for terminal. You can now add the 2013 COLT "investment" to the Quicksilver list of terrible assets CEQP has. Thanks Bum Phillips

  • RBN posted an article today showing the collapse in crude by rail from the Bakken. Near the end they discuss PBFX rail terminals and how PBF is stuck with long term volume commitments to use the terminals. However, even with paying the penalty to not use terminals it is still cheaper to import crude. Can someone help me understand how this affects PBF? Seems like it will depress margins on one hand and reduce revenue they receive from PBFX on the other. These MLP dropdowns confuse me- sell assets we own, then make a deal with yourself for use of those assets

  • govpur govpur Mar 14, 2016 9:45 AM Flag

    I agree, hope to get clarity on QS&L on call. SA article seems prescient now. Think there needs to be an activist investor to break the choke hold HPT has on TA. Sad really and may take shares to be really depressed in order for the necessary change to be made.

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