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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

govpur 43 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 23, 2014 10:53 PM Member since: Apr 16, 2013
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  • Had a work trip down I-65 in Indiana and drove by the Seymour terminal this morning. Last couple days been tough, few extra cocktails, but didn't sell any of my units. Anyway, it was quite a hotbed of activity with trucks rolling out and others lining up. Enterprise has a very large terminal right across the street as well. Thought with all the movement in both CEQP and CMLP last couple of days, the board would want to hear things are still happening on the ground, like normal. Holding long and strong.

  • Reply to

    Todays manipulation

    by joebo246 Oct 3, 2014 3:45 PM
    govpur govpur Oct 3, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    Well, today may have been the heavy volume day I have been looking for. All weak hands and sell stops were probably cleared. Long term, the prospects for CEQP are very strong. Hope this was the bottom and actually glad I had dry powder to lower my basis.

  • Reply to

    MARC II PIPELINE OPEN SEASON RELEASE

    by govpur Oct 14, 2014 7:43 AM
    govpur govpur Oct 14, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    Hey, congrats you are up! Didn't look good about an hour ago. All kidding aside, hope that is the ultimate low for CMLP. Trading far below book right now, makes no sense to me.

  • Reply to

    better days ahead?

    by idror24 Oct 6, 2014 3:41 PM
    govpur govpur Oct 14, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Your analysis is right on. Cannot believe the value destruction across the sector. Unfortunate part for CEQP and CMLP is that they did not enjoy a run up over last year. Anyway, between the press release and increased beer consumption I find solace in that I think Crestwood is a great company on the right track. If, per an older Motley Fool article, this is an infant EPD- we will ultimately come out ahead. EPD was not a straight line up but if you held through ups and downs you are doing great. Along those lines, I think now would be a great time for CMLP to buy CEQP and look like EPD.

  • Reply to

    MARC II PIPELINE OPEN SEASON RELEASE

    by govpur Oct 14, 2014 7:43 AM
    govpur govpur Oct 14, 2014 3:08 PM Flag

    Decided to do some research and found that the new LPG terminal is on Genoa Drive in North Kingstown, RI. It is a distribution point to supply distributers, with truck and rail access. Through google maps you can see the rail terminal with LPG tankers lining up. Maps overview does show it is either on or adjacent to old Quonset Navy Base. Really can't tell if terminal is connected to port or what CMLP owns out there. Pretty exciting though and smart. CMLP seems to be taking a leadership position in east coast LPG. ANy thoughts or input from the board?

  • govpur by govpur Oct 23, 2014 8:13 AM Flag

    Held flat, we will see how market reacts but I think it is a good thing if coverage is at 1 or better and on conference call they forecast a resumption of increase in fourth quarter. Thinking with the Buckinghorse gas plant coming online there is a chance it does resume increases. Also, anyone else see the release from PSX about two new unit train unloading facilities that came online in Ferndale, WA and Linden, NJ? That has to be good for news for CMLP as those trains are loaded at our facility. IMO, part of downdraft in CMLP may be that some are thinking with lower oil price that full capacity won't be reached at COLT- think this goes a long way to counter that. Also, always thought a utility or E and P would look to acquire CMLP, but with TLLP and PSX news this week it just may be a refiner that buys CEQP and drops assets to their logistics MLP- just a thought. Ken

  • Reply to

    TLLP BUYS QEP FIELD SERVICES

    by govpur Oct 20, 2014 9:57 AM
    govpur govpur Oct 20, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    I agree with you. Mr. Kinder laid out a pretty compelling case for midstream consolidation when he combined all his entities. I would actually prefer a strategic merger for CMLP. I also own BWP and if you take their two assets maps they basically fit perfectly and complement each other nicely. This would give CMLP the Northeast to Gulfcoast pipeline that EPD, ETE, KMI all have. Still believe CMLP is an infant EPD and think our management can grow us with creative M&A.

  • Reply to

    good news?

    by wisco.topcat Oct 20, 2014 6:10 PM
    govpur govpur Oct 20, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    Just awesome news. This project will be approved! Building a great Marcellus position. Commonwealth pipeline still in their 2015 project list as well. After today almost thinking best to sell Colt and Douglas crude and just focus on natural gas and NGL's. Just a thought as they probably could get a premium for both and significantly reduce debt or fund a major acquisition. Ken

  • Not sure why IR did not put out a release on this. The LPG looks good as well:

    The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has given the green light to a Houston-based company to immediately begin construction of a methane gas storage project in several dozen salt caverns on the west shore of Seneca Lake less than three miles north of Watkins Glen. The controversial decision is bound to generate community opposition, which has actively sought both state and federal assistance in preventing Crestwood Midstream from proceeding with its plan to store both methane gas and liquid petroleum gas (LPG) in the lakeside caverns. For the Texas company it marks a major victory in its five-year campaign to use the caverns as a storage hub for gas fracking operations in northern Pennsylvania

  • Found this article over weekend. What can I say, watching this decline daily has made me really review why I own this stock. I am pleased to report that I did not understand Crestwood's strength in Northeast LPG. They are a market leader and building a great business which goes unnoticed.
    From Oil and Energy Online 10/11/14. Enjoy!
    "Propane supply in New England is better protected going into the 2014-15 winter than it was one year earlier, according to Joe Rose, President of the New England Propane Gas Association.

    Although Crestwood Midstream Partners’ proposed regional-scale storage facility in the Finger Lakes region remains mired in a lengthy review process, the supply picture is improved by the addition of smaller-scale wholesale facilities, according to Rose.

    Two important new facilities are Crestwood’s terminal at Quonset Point, in North Kingston, RI, and Dead River Co. terminal in Bellows Falls, Vt. “The supply chain has improved from a year ago, and I think the industry has woken government up to the fact that we need to be in regular communications so that if we have issues, we can take action both on the federal and state level before we have a full-blown crisis,” he said.

    Awareness was raised last winter when the “polar vortex” brought frigid weather to a wide swath of the northern United States and depleted much of northern New England’s available propane. Marketers were forced purchase costly imported product, and propane associations worked with the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and state officials to get product to market. DOT wound up lifting Hours of Service restrictions on fuel drivers in 38 states for more than a month. “That was pretty much unheard of,” said Rose."

  • Reply to

    TLM ASSETS IN MARCELLUS

    by govpur Oct 17, 2014 8:19 AM
    govpur govpur Oct 17, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    Here is detail from TLM website, hopefully Mr. Phillips reads this MB, Haha!
    In addition, Talisman has midstream assets consisting of approximately 240 miles of gathering/transmission pipelines serviced by seven compression/gas dehydration facilities (74 units) with throughput capacity of 1.5 bcf/d. During 2013, these facilities delivered 446 mmcf/d into outlets on Tennessee Gas, Empire, Dominion Transmission and Corning Natural Gas pipelines. The New York midstream assets currently consist of approximately 195 miles of gathering/transmission pipelines and 7 compression/gas processing facilities (9 units) with throughput capacity of 125 mmcf/d. During 2013, these facilities delivered 18 mmcf/d from Trenton Black River formation production to facilities on the Dominion Transmission and Corning Natural Gas pipelines. All of these systems currently gather only volumes from wells in which Talisman currently has a working interest, although additional capacity is available for future use by Talisman or third parties. Talisman currently holds approximately 620 mmcf/d of gas pipeline capacity from the Marcellus area.

  • Not to keep beating a dead (bucking)horse but this article hit today and states plant can be online by month end:
    "Jackalope Gas Gathering takes advantage of ‘world-class play’Construction continues on the new gas plant on Cold Springs Road southwest of Douglas. Jackalope Gas Gathering representatives told Converse County commissioners that the facility could be operational as early as the end of this month. More such facilities are on the horizon here.
    Another large compressor station to be built is just one more sign of the robust oil and gas activity in Converse County. Jackalope Gas Gathering Services announced plans this month to build its fifth compressor station in the county, this one a five-compressor unit on nearly 13 acres six miles northeast of Douglas. The facility may eventually expand to include 10 compressors.
    Last fall, the company announced that it would build the largest compression facility in its fleet on 15 acres off of Flat Top Road 14 miles northwest of Douglas.
    The company has the sole gas gathering contract for Chesapeake Energy and is building gathering system pipelines to bring the natural gas Chesapeake produces to Jackalope’s new 120 Mcf per day gas plant southwest of Douglas on Cold Springs Road. That facility is expected to be operational by the end of the month.
    In the ever-changing world of midstream company ownership, the gas plant known as the Bucking Horse was initiated by Crestwood Midstream, which now has a 50-percent stake in Jackalope Gas Gathering along with Access Midstream, which this summer was purchased by Williams Companies.

    Williams, the Tulsa, Okla., energy services giant

  • Pretty interesting call this morning on buyout. Think a lot of these Refiner logistics MLP's are moving up the value chain, which will ultimately lead them to CMLP. The only missing piece TLLP does not have is crude loading facility at source, ie COLT hub and Douglas Rail. TLLP has offload near their refineries. Interesting that TLLP is one of CMLP's biggest customers. Anyway, think that this demonstrates inherent value of CMLP assets. Ken

  • Reply to

    What does deal mean for QEPM?

    by dorkymcirish Oct 21, 2014 10:04 AM
    govpur govpur Oct 21, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    Most likely uncertainty surrounding what the exchange price will be. The conflicts committee should make it fair and reasonable and should not take in the recent collapse, hopefully. QEP should have made QEPM unit price fixed as part of takeover, IMO

  • govpur govpur Oct 20, 2014 10:11 PM Flag

    TSO benefits. Look at their shareprice today and they are adding equity so that is why it probably this way. Gp's hold the cards and "unit" holders are along for a ride. Only worse off today, IMO, are unit holders of QEPM. Way below IPO price and they will now have to swallow whatever TLLP is going to offer them as they are now GP and hold 56 percent of units. And to add insult to injury, on the conference call TLLP basically stated that there is virtually no EBITDA from QEPM and they would basically roll them in sometime after transaction closed. What was QEPM other than a conduit to extract money from unit holders while dropping no good assets and overpaying for the Green River processing? That may be the real "ugly" story about alot of these MLP spinoffs. No unit holder value created and ultimately pain. Disclosure: I don't own TLLP, TSO, or QEPM but have been tracking TLLP awhile. Gets to around 50, where I think it is worth, and I may nibble. Just wondering if TSO is using TLLP the way QEP used QEPM? TLLP unit price tells me no, but I am just a homegamer. Ken

  • Thought I would let the board know I received a call from investor relations today as I sent an e-mail complaining about the lack of press releases and insider buying. He could not address insider purchases but did confirm that the WY processing plant is on schedule to begin operation this quarter and a press release would be put out on that. Additionally, he did a great job explaining how CEQP and CMLP are focused on running the business and exploring all options to add unit holder value. One thing he reminded me of is that CEQP is in high splits with CMLP and that CEQP and CMLP have roughly the same amount of units outstanding. This equates to 50 cents of every dollar going to CEQP and the stock is less than 50 percent of the price of CMLP. Pretty powerful argument to pick up CEQP right here. Anyway, the WY plant may serve increase fourth guidance as they invested all the money and it is booked on long term contracts. That should help CMLP coverage get over one, thereby possibly taking the distribution cut fear out of CEQP. That is my opinion and IR did not comment on that, only that they are focused on getting CMLP over one times coverage. GLTA LONGS! Ken

  • Reply to

    Dividend cut coming?

    by realamerican5555 Oct 3, 2014 10:27 AM
    govpur govpur Oct 3, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    I agree. Once the reality sets in that CEQP distr is safe (and possibly growing) due to CMLP I think it will recover. Now may be a good time to drop Tres P to CMLP to further demonstrate no distr cut. Just added more here to lower basis. Ken

  • Reply to

    Dividend cut coming?

    by realamerican5555 Oct 3, 2014 10:27 AM
    govpur govpur Oct 3, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    I agree that this downdraft is troubling, and all on modest volume. I read the form 4's from Sherman and they state that these sales were planned in December of last year so not sure something is rotten, even though they were at 15. Where is our IR our insider purchases. Also, why not announce the start up of the new facility in Wyoming, which is supposed to come online this month. Not sure what has changed to justify such a terrible fall

  • Reply to

    What does deal mean for QEPM?

    by dorkymcirish Oct 21, 2014 10:04 AM
    govpur govpur Oct 21, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    Great analysis. It will be stock as TLLP will most likely recover as this deal was immediately accretive. I agree with you at 20-21 as that would be a small premium to Friday's close and will make the transaction bullet proof.

  • Reply to

    seeking alpha breaking news team

    by wisco.topcat Oct 21, 2014 3:04 PM
    govpur govpur Oct 21, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    Great. I will reach out to UGI and WGL Ir's to see if they have an update. All 3 were involved and CMLP was also going to be operator. Ken

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