Just took a few minutes to read press release and watch new SEAS ads. Very well done, IMO, and tells the true story. The care the animals receive and the passion of the staff really shine through. Below $20 was an overreaction and I am holding my shares forever! Busch Gardens, VA opens this Friday and Sesame Place on May 2nd. I think the attendance at all properties will surprise a lot of analysts and the blackfish propaganda will subside. GLTA and God Bless SEAS employees, keep up the good work!
I disagree that Arrow does not connect at well pad. It does from myunderstanding and then crude piped to COLT. At COLT they can do truck unloading, storage, CBR, and it interconnects to Tesoro and Enbridge pipelines. You are right they do not have the long haul pipe takeaway like Hiland. I actually visited Epping, ND last year and the R and D tracks and additional storage was under construction. The storage is not talked about much but pretty valuable in this environment, IMO, where crude is looking for a home. On another note, on the Trans Canada conf call they talked about buying a oil terminal/hub in the US if Keystone XL is not approved. They would pipe oil to Hardisty, load on trains to US and then connect to US portion of KXL that does not need prez permit. The idea is that the Keystone system needs XL to optimize. Right now only flows at 400K b/pd where system designed for 800. Anyway, who better to partner with or buy than Crestwood if they are serious about this. They could interconnect COLT to KXL, which would runs through ND, if built. Hopefully, our mgt is aware of this statement. Not sure how serious TRP is about this and maybe just trying to make the point that they have options on the KXL debacle if the prez scuttles.
Well, most revenues are fee based for one. Pricing at 6.25 which is 1.50 less than current! This. Has to be good long term for balance sheet. Maybe our financial wizard, Harehu, can give us his thoughts. Don't think this interest reduction has been forecasted by covering analysts
Very hard to say at this point. From what I understand the capex is pretty low and, if approved, will come on line by next winter. I imagine there would be guidance, if approved but no one is factoring this in.
Take a look at the RBN article posted today called "Join together with the band". It is the first of many that will discuss NG/LPG in the Marcellus. Today's was basically an overview of how the Marcellus has grown but the main takeaway for me, as a CEQP investor, is that it calls out there is not adequate LPG storage in the Northeast. Specifically, they mention lack of Salt cavern storage and the impact it is having. Anyway, we should learn within the next couple of months what the New York DEC decision is regarding Seneca. If it is approved, may change the sentiment towards Crestwood, my hope anyway. They are continuing to build out their Northeast LPG infrastructure, albeit without our IR putting out press releases to my chagrin, but approval of Seneca may be the critical piece for the market to wake up and realize what Crestwood has up there. Ken
Thanks for the response. Just added more right now. My apologies to board for buying yesterday. There is a hedge fund that tracks my purchases and destroys every stock I buy the day after I buy it! Just kidding and if you have a 10 year time horizon today's drop is of no concern. Ken
Hello. Bought in this morning after listening to analyst day meeting on website last night. That was one of the most powerful investment presentations I have ever seen and suggest all investors review. The value they have unlocked with DM is impressive and the 93.00 fair value price for D they estimate is, IMO, low. They repeatedly stated that the market just does not understand the benefit to D from DM. They methodically break it down. Cannot believe the price drop last few weeks and appreciate what I consider a great entry point. Hope to hold for a decade or more, at minimum. Appreciate many of the informed posters here and hope to add to conversation. Ken
Darv, just going over old posts. You ever get an answer on CEQP? Interested in your analysis. Hope we didn't lose Harehu as well. This latest leg down seems to have shook out some of the regulars that were here. Hope not, although my contrarian brain says that is time to buy. Up to my backside in CEQP units and just holding, however. Ken
I like your reasoning and agree. If they can get the LPG storage at Seneca approved I believe it will reawaken that very investment thesis as it seems lost right now. I am advocating for Crestwood to consolidate their assets to the 4 main areas they are allocating the most capital to. That being Marcellus/Utica, Bakken, Niobrara, and South TX (per their January presentation you can find on website). I hope they would sell everything else. I had previously advocated for CMLP to buy CEQP to look more like EPD but some fine posters on the CMLP board explained that is not likely, which I now reluctantly accept. Anyway, if they did consolidate to those 4 areas I believe Crestwood would be a much better story and even receive a premium instead of the bargain bin, clearance rack, basement/sidewalk sale that it currently is. Ken
After listening to call think earnings and outlook were pretty good. Distribution for both looks safe, even in this environment. Have to take the long term approach as quick recovery over 10-12 looks unlikely. Just going to hold, force myself not to trade it, and wait. Long term seems positive with Brookfield, possible new equity partner to acquire/drop ala ETE. Hope Mr. Phillips knows Kelcy Warren and figures out to do what he did. Anyway, good luck and still have not sold any units. If they ever have a unit holder meeting hope to meet other holders as misery loves company. Haha. Ken
Been researching MLPY and have come up with this estimate. Any help from you and/or board is greatly appreciated. WPZ, who CEQP is replacing, makes up about 6 percent of MLPY. The fund value is 100 million so approx. 6 million of CEQP will be bought once added. At 7 per unit I calculate 857,143 unit, which is pretty significant and about 5 days worth of volume. I could not find any other funds that track MLPY as a basis for their fund- any help with that would be great as well. We should see MLPY show up in major holders after March 31 reporting period. In any case, this is demand for units and being part of an index is generally a good thing. MLPY is near 52 week low currently. Ken
As usual, great data. Today's RBN blog is very interesting on Marcellus differentials. Below is the takeaway, IMO. Not sure it is a good time to be buying E&P's. I still say the only energy investment to be made today is Northeast midstream. I own CEQP and CNNX. Ken
"When added back to the underlying Henry Hub futures curve, these discounts in the Dom S forward curve translate to an average outright price of $1.85/MMBtu for the balance of 2015 and an average barely above $2.00/MMBtu for 2016. In fact, the current forward curve does not show outright prices at Dom S reaching $3/MMBtu on an average annual basis until at least 2019, and even then just barely. These values out that far in the forward curve are no doubt daunting for producers in the region looking to do better than breakeven on their drilling costs (see our Producer Breakevens and Drilling Economics series). Market consensus as seen in the curve shows the new trend of negative pricing deepening in the next two years, pounded by continued production growth (see Rig Cuts Deep, Output High!) and limited takeaway capacity, with producers essentially at the mercy of weather-related demand in the region to help soak up the excess supply, at least until 2017-18.
Both the Transco Z6 NY and the Dom S forward curves show some semblance of support by 2018, when the annual peak shifts up to near minus $0.50/MMBtu and the lows also jump to near minus $1.00/MMBtu. This slight uplift coincides with the in-service dates for pipeline projects that the market is expecting to provide relief for the pent-up supply congestion in the Northeast. But the curve still does not return to anywhere near pre-Marcellus/Utica levels. The market’s perceptions of the Northeast market as represented by the New York and Dom S hubs have broken from historical trends and the forward curves have been permanently reshaped. There is no going back."
Well, finally some good news. Funds tied to this index will be required to but CEQP once it is added on February 2nd!!!
DALLAS, Jan. 26, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Swank Capital, LLC and Cushing® Asset Management, LP announce an interim change to the constituents of The Cushing® MLP High Income Index (the "Index"). Index constituent Williams Partners L.P. (NYSE: WPZ) previously entered a merger agreement with Access Midstream Partners, L.P. (NYSE: ACMP) wherein WPZ would become a subsidiary of ACMP (the "Merger"). Pursuant to the terms of the merger agreement, following the Merger closing after the market opens on February 2, 2015 (the "Distribution Date"), each publicly held WPZ Common Unit will be exchanged for 0.86672 ACMP Common Units, with ACMP continuing as the surviving entity following the Merger.
Accordingly, barring any unforeseen events, WPZ will be removed from the Index and replaced with Crestwood Equity Partners LP (NYSE: CEQP) after the markets close on February 2, 2015. The changes will be effective on February 3, 2015.
Well, I hope First Reserve takes some bold action with Crestwood, maybe the new CFO- a FR guy, is there for that reason. ETP buying RGP also shows the consolidation phase is upon us. Someone just has to be looking at Crestwood with their pipeline assets in the Northeast being the real gems, IMO. I am still lobbying for SE. However, even without a buyout I think Crestwood is a winner long term, just need to get a better story out there. Ken
Well, seeing that CEQP and CNNX are currently my only two holdings, I will put them at the top of the list. Never owned SEMG but looked at it before buying CNNX and just couldn't get my head around it. Owned TRGP back in 13 and sold on runup. Liked it then, not so sure now. Think that is one you wait and see what happens with earnings and outlook. The buyout of Atlas pretty much marked the top for all the gas processors. The Permian story that drove the buyout has changed dramatically since then. Forward p/e still in high 30's as where CEQP is 12, meaning I think you are way better off here, IMO. Good luck whatever you decide.
Yes, he mentioned that on a couple presentations as well. Plus, on one he stated "a utility or E and P that understands the power of tax benefits, dropdowns". Pleasantly surprised that it is up this morning after yesterday's announcement. If gains hold it may demonstrate how overly negative the market is on CEQP and that a distro cut is/was being priced in. Don't blame you for waiting on guidance, may miss some of a move but who knows, really. I was convinced it was a deal at 11, down to 8 and it printed sub 6. Yesterday, I was convinced it would be negative this morning and it is up, so I can provide no advice on price. However, I do think this company is uniquely positioned and undervalued. Darv222's 60mm EBITDA on CEQP's NGL biz is low and the dropdown, when it happens, will make it a pure play GP with a great balance sheet. Lots of catalysts as well: Buckinghorse, Marc 2, and possible approval of Seneca Lake LPG storage will all improve story and metrics. GLTA
Thanks for the reply. Freeport (COP) says they are moving forward as well, but we will see. I agree that Sabine and Cove Point are the only "locks" right now. The Mexico story seems to be misunderstood and it is as big, bigger than LNG. Don't think it is factored in to NG price. NG up 3 percent this morning, BTW. Anyway, thank again and keep posting. I thank you for sharing your thoughts. Ken
Harehu, I would agree with your analysis but we need to see Q4 numbers and guidance. 17mm in Q2 should be low when we smooth out for year. Last year maybe not best comparison with polar vortex but we can average out 2 years after guidance. Wouldn't be surprised if the 700mm you estimate is over $1b, thereby making your case even more compelling. Market may not care today, as CEQP is levered to CMLP and no distro growth. However, if coverage improves and guidance is good it may mark the end to this long, painful slide. I still want CMLP to buy CEQP and look like EPD. Probably a pipe dream but it would simplify the balance sheet (yes, it's confusing) and be the bold action required to make the Crestwood story better. Good luck. Ken
Cursory look and think Harehu nailed it. The NGL biz offset the Tres loss. Tres no longer a drag and NGL biz usually picks up 4th and 1st quarter. I am a little peeved no distro growth released tonight which would have helped us suffering unit holders but I will wait for guidance. Just in a bad mood right now as wanted even the slightest increase to .14 per quarter. Well, I am on the 5 year plan so just suck it up. Ken