Barron's has 63 million ebitda for 2015 with 40 million shares after merger. Put average multiple on that and you get 19-21 share price. Think I will go by their numbers!
Well, as a salesman for over 20 years I can tell you that they will be right eventually! I think it is this year. Look, all the cost cuts and reorg has taken place. We are coming out of that phase right now. I know wall street and investors want certainty but in reality, it is going to be lumpy for awhile. The fact that revenues maintained and losses were stemmed with reorg, trouble in South America, strong dollar, etc. shows you that something good is happening. Now they bring in this PCAR guy. You get some improvement in Class 8 and this bird starts humming. Also, they stated on call that Bus biz shines next two quarters which wasn't reflective this quarter. To quote Jimmy Stewart "Potters' not selling, he's buying". And that is what I am doing. I have made two purchases last two days. not at lows but brought my basis down considerably. I believe in management and my friend who works there- by the way he was our HS valedictorian (if that spelled wrong you know why I wasn't) and smartest guy I personally know- mech engineer from Uof I- that the place is completely different from before reorg with relentless focus on cost and profitability. Anyway, there you have it. You sell and I buy. However, for the company, employees, and US manufacturing in general- I hope I am right.
Visited a Del on a work trip to Utah this week. It was on 4th street in downtown Salt Lake. Place was very modern with a kid play area and very nice. The best part for me was that the food was fantastic. Much better than Taco Bell and not really comparable IMO. I had the fish tacos, grilled chicken taco and churros. I would put those fish taco's against anybody's especially with al the fresh ingredients on them. Anyway, asked two of my customers for closest one and one said "Del taco sounds good right now" and the other explained that Del is better than Taco Bell, which I agree. Anyway, I hope Del has a plan to add alcoholic beverages like TB is testing in Chicago (saw on CNBC). Del's food would go well with a Mexican brew and/or Margarita. That would attract a lot of millennial's and road dogs like me who want an adult beverage when I eat dinner. On that note, had to drive from Salt Lake to Las Vegas and many exits had Del's listed on "available food" right next to hotels. I tend to stay and eat at these type exits so having alcohol would attract a lot of road dogs to eat there if they offered. Just my opinion.
I agree this is overdone. It is funny how the market values companies. Take ZOES, okay a food company but it has a 700 million dollar market cap on 60 million in quarterly sales and it broke even. We have 2.7 billion in quarterly revenues, lost 64 million but forecasted for profit by year end. Our market cap now under 2 Billion. Seems whacky to me but what do I know. I am just holding this for the long term.
Well, took the plunge with TACO today at 15.98. I finally decided on TACO as talked with a friend who are at the LOCO in summit,IL which is now closed. Anyway, he claimed it was expensive and not that great. I had already determined Neither is a CMG so del is better choice for the following, IMO: taco would have to trade at 19 for same valuation of loco, amazing how revenue metrics are similar in these two names so taco much better buy. Also taco has breakfast which is growing where loco does not. Lastly, taco has a real chance to compete with Taco Bell and grow to their size where loco does not due to cost per location. Glad to be aboard
The strategy is to mitigate capital investment and risk associated with engine development. My understanding is that the liability issues with engines is very high. Teaming with CMI is not NAV specific. All the majors are doing it. That being said, NAV will always produce engines. The Melrose facility is belting them out right now. MGT is finding the right balance. Long term, look at the restructuring that has taken place with the benefits about to be realized. Your analysis is good and I appreciate it, but don't think you are appreciating what the profit drivers going forward will be. That is why you should invest today. I believe they will regain market share with a streamlined cost structure enabling profits to flow to bottom line. That is why Gabelli and Icahn are here- they see this as a cash cow going forward.
I was a LOCO holder and sold before earnings, thankfully. With the huge drop I have been considering buying back in but thinking TACO as well. The E/V's are much closer now so maybe some of the excellent posters here can answer some questions. 1. Quarterly Revenues are similar but TACO has more stores and sss growth is lower at TACO. Is that the smaller check size at TACO? On that note, why is EPS so small? Even with debt payment reduction, where are the earnings? 2. There will be 40MM shares when merger is complete, is there also a secondary planned? 3. Why did they just close the Houston location if TX is a planned growth area?. Lastly, been many years since I was at a Del Taco. I used to go to one in Oxnard, CA when I was stationed at Port Hueneme. It was then considered basically junk food and really cheap. Has that changed? I looked at menu online and aside from some fresh offerings it looked the same from 20 years ago and the burger options seem to dumb it down even more. Guess LOCO seems more like a Chipotle to me than TACO. Am I just plum wrong on that now? Thanks in advance.
Talked with a friend who works at NAV as I did not understand your comments on parts business. He stated that it is absolutely untrue and parts is still and will be s significant part of their story. Either clarify or give facts, please
I agree that Daimler is a no go. I do believe vlkay or Cnhi will make a run at NAV. Mainly because neither has nafta sales and both are set in Europe. NAV had nafta sales and more importantly, a great dealer network. Basically, if you look at either coverage map, NAV is perfect fit. I do not believe PCAR is as good because duplication in Europe and market cap is 22 billion. Much harder to swallow than NAV, imo. Bottom line, if not now, when? In a year I believe NAV discount to peers will diminish if they execute, which I believe they are and will.
Volkswagen is rumored. I think they will- very successful for Daimler to own Freightliner and Mack. They could have 15-20 percent of the lucrative US market in one fell swoop
Just off work. Do you work? Or do you post here all day? Nice existence. I am not one for conspiracy theories. The stock is down because 2 year delay and 2 billion over budget on CS series. It is that simple. The recently completed refi and possible rail sale right the ship. Now they have to execute with new mgt. I believe they will. That's why I own this company. Had a great exchange with IR and believe they are committed to aerospace. I urge all potential investors to do the same. If you buy today you get the aerospace unit for free.
China just upped ante for rail unit. Brilliant move, imo. Ge and alstom will now have to pay more if interested. Face it, you buy Bbd and you get the aerospace unit for free. I call 6B final valuation for rail unit. Putinchoi- u f here daily bashing. Why don't ease up, the new management will lead aerospace unit in right direction. It is quite a team!
Appreciate your posts. What makes you so sure Bain is trying screw Class B holders? Do you think the family would seriously allow that to happen? It would be a insult to all Canada if shareholders were to be perceived as hurt. A couple nice orders from Air Show would be great. Additionally, more talk of how regional jets are important to the future would be nice. Frankly, if a spin off of rail is handled properly it would be great for us shareholders. Look at other successful spinoffs and both existing and new shares rally. Conoco, Phillips comes to mind. Ken