Yes, those MM's are counting that the New England Journal will hold off on releasing the headline article that a corn rich diet reverses Alzheimer's until early next week.
With the recent CF run, it was not an unexpected event that someone out there might want to keep a lid on the stock price today with weekly option expiration. It's not a difficult task with volume this low. Just funny to watch CF trade down while fundamentals keep growing more positive. Look for that inevitable CF pop up on Monday.
Channel 7 Action Weather is reporting there will be no rain in the cornbelt for at least the next 10 years. Farmers are quickly making arrangements to grow only cactus for the foreseeable future. Details at 6pm tonight.
Wall Street has concluded that corn prices are so high, farmers will choose to plant less expensive crops fearing riches which may alter their lifestyle.
Look for several new IPO's touting new plants which will convert all that unwanted nitrogen fertilizer back into natural gas to power the nation and atmospheric nitrogen to save the environment.
With corn inventories so low and corn prices so high most farmers will avoid growing corn in the future and they certainly won't need nitrogen fertilizer. Many analysts have come to this conclusion. Farmers growing corn must fear for their safety as gangs of corn robbers will soon roam the country looking to pilfer this new treasure.
It's all about the future. Not only high prices and shortage of corn, it's more than likely prices for nitrogen fertilizer will skyrocket as demand outstrips supply.
The CF vs TNH discussion again/ Part 2.
This opens the topic again of the benefits of a large stock dividend (TNH) compared to an equivalent stock buyback program (CF). Assuming current US tax rates remain in effect, are there others out there who believe dollar for dollar, shareholders could profit more from well-timed stock buybacks versus a regular quarterly dividend?
The CF vs TNH discussion again.
It is clear to me that TNH stock trades at a premium to CF, even after you factor in the tax advantages. I still don't fully understand the reasons for this observation. True, TNH unlike CF is 100% concentrated in the most profitable nitrogen sector. The symbiotic relationship likely benefits TNH more than CF. Many investors require a minimum % dividend in their screening process eliminating CF stock as an investment candidate. The small float of TNH tends to intensify the stock movements both up and down.
On the other hand, there are reasons to believe CF should trade at a premium to TNH. Diversity is a huge consideration. If the Verdigris plant in Oklahoma has significant downtime or worse, the impact felt by CF would be significant but nothing in comparison to what would happen to TNH stock. CF also has favorable terms managing the plant and the product. In addition, CF has the ability to acquire the minority portion of TNH it doesn't own already, which they should trigger if nitrogen fertilizer ever has a down cycle (hopefully not for at least a few years).
Don't be an idiot. Your entire post was to correct my statement about $1 billion earnings per quarter, was that I didn't specify before or after taxes to match your net profit number. Likewise my debt calculation did not include deferred taxes. Wonderful. The fact remains that CF stock is still way too cheap.
1. Why are you talking about profits? I said earnings or EBITA.
2. Usually debt on the books is offset by cash in the coffers. I guess this doesn't apply here?
3. Like most companies, I expect CF to take on new debt when the future return of that money benefits the company. I also appreciate their use of excess cash to opportunistically repurchase shares.
4. Show me any hint of correlation with the share price in previous 3rd quarters.
5. There is actually very little new product anticipated that will be competitive with CF due to tariff, local NG cost and/or transportation fees.
6. Which analysts do you follow?
Chris Damas on Seeking Alpha posted a warning article on 4/27, prior to the CF Q1 earnings report, that there would be a $250 to $300 million loss from natural gas derivatives which would have a negative impact on the Q1 EPS figure. It certainly counted back then.
Chris Damas on Seeking Alpha is an excellent source of information concerning CF and he had an excellent article a few quarters ago where he discussed why profits and losses due to CF hedging natural gas must always be included in the EPS figure and why one time items like the sale of a warehouse is never included. I anticipate he may touch on this topic in his next article.
I am surprised too that the CF share price did not run up by 10% today, but we all know that this stock is institutionally controlled and most require a little pondering and time to accumulate their position while a few rely on a little trickery to obtain a favorable entry point.
I would expect news media sites to report correct EPS figures including the number of outstanding shares once the figures are released by the company. Especially when that factors in to a difference of a hit or miss.
As far as analysts are concerned, they seem to be on the ball pushing CF estimates from the Q2 2011 $5.95 up to $8.21 for Q2 2012 three months ago and then up to $8.90 last week.
Some things never seem to change including your sentiment disclosure on this board where you love to hit the strong sell button.
I remember the good old days when you could buy shares for CF for double digits and we would argue where the price of corn and nitrogen fertilizer was heading. But as I said before, the local natural gas glut was the game changer for CF and since the renewable fuel mandate is also here to stay by all accounts, CF is the place to be for at least another 2 or 3 years.