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Yum! Brands, Inc. Message Board

gradkowski_07 1604 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 7, 2012 3:27 PM Member since: Feb 22, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 3:27 PM Flag

    Chris Damas on Seeking Alpha is an excellent source of information concerning CF and he had an excellent article a few quarters ago where he discussed why profits and losses due to CF hedging natural gas must always be included in the EPS figure and why one time items like the sale of a warehouse is never included. I anticipate he may touch on this topic in his next article.

  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 3:19 PM Flag

    I am surprised too that the CF share price did not run up by 10% today, but we all know that this stock is institutionally controlled and most require a little pondering and time to accumulate their position while a few rely on a little trickery to obtain a favorable entry point.

  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 2:57 PM Flag

    I would expect news media sites to report correct EPS figures including the number of outstanding shares once the figures are released by the company. Especially when that factors in to a difference of a hit or miss.

    As far as analysts are concerned, they seem to be on the ball pushing CF estimates from the Q2 2011 $5.95 up to $8.21 for Q2 2012 three months ago and then up to $8.90 last week.

  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 2:35 PM Flag

    Rea,

    Some things never seem to change including your sentiment disclosure on this board where you love to hit the strong sell button.

  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 2:25 PM Flag

    Hey rea,

    I remember the good old days when you could buy shares for CF for double digits and we would argue where the price of corn and nitrogen fertilizer was heading. But as I said before, the local natural gas glut was the game changer for CF and since the renewable fuel mandate is also here to stay by all accounts, CF is the place to be for at least another 2 or 3 years.

  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 2:14 PM Flag

    Again it's obvious you didn't listen to the conference call.

    The revenue miss was due in small part to a slight slowdown in global phosphate demand, a much smaller part of CF sales, but mainly due to a lack of inventory for nitrogen fertilizer. CF was unable to meet demand despite 24/7 production. Capacity has been added now through 2013 as large number of plants were refurbished during the past 6 months and CF is now back to full production.

    Funny how last quarter, natural gas hedging losses were included in the earning figure by all which resulted in a small miss (because this is part of the business model every quarter), but this quarter a few headlines decided to exclude these profits from the earnings number and instead label them as one time items.

  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 1:07 PM Flag

    ___"Uncertainty about size of corn crop to be planted next year and amount of funds available to farmers to purchase fertilizer after a possible devastating yield this year for some? Just a few things that come to mind."____

    CF management did not sound uncertain when they gave a figure of 96 million acres for US corn planting in 2013. Nor were they uncertain about the South American acreage. Where is your specific disagreement?

    CF deals with corn farmers on a daily basis. When they say corn farmers have recently experienced healthy profits, will have no problems making payments for fertilizer, discuss the timing of crop insurance payments along with loans and credit available, is there any reason why don't you believe them?

  • Reply to

    Corn

    by gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 11:05 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 12:43 PM Flag

    The change in grain prices favor corn planting now more than ever. The 2.5 equality price ratio for soybeans to corn is currently skewed to less than 2.0 for 2013.

  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 12:30 PM Flag

    Well, all of your specific questions were thoroughly answered in the conference call. Did you just miss those parts or did you truly not believe something about the answers?

  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 12:08 PM Flag

    cap,
    Keep up that detailed research you always do prior to investing. One thing we know for sure is you didn't listen at all to the CF conference call.

  • gradkowski_07 by gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 11:05 AM Flag

    With corn inventories near 40 year lows and current record corn prices, how many years of maximal plantings and how many tons of nitrogen fertilizer will be needed just to get back to normal levels?

  • Reply to

    Seems not that weak

    by nojack1101 Aug 7, 2012 10:43 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 10:59 AM Flag

    Why was there any rational reason to ever think that CF stock would be weak considering its hugely positive fundamentals and strong outlook?

  • Reply to

    CF stock is way too cheap

    by gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 10:06 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 10:33 AM Flag

    I don't understand why you'd wait for a chance at a 10% discount which may never come and pass up the nearly assured opportunity for a 30% gain in the next year or so.

  • gradkowski_07 by gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 10:06 AM Flag

    Factoring in shares already bought back, CF total valuation is less than $13 billion. This is for a company with no debt, earning more than $1 billion each QUARTER, growing with takeovers and a rosy outlook for future sales combined with their continuing major margin advantage over the competition.

  • gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 7, 2012 5:29 AM Flag

    CF was punished last quarter after natural gas losses resulted in a miss. Now they have a big gain from natural gas. It's an integral part of the business. Can't have it both ways.

    "May 4th 2012: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. today reported first quarter 2012 net earnings attributable to common stockholders of $368.4 million, or $5.54 per diluted share, compared to earnings of $282.0 million, or $3.91 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2011. First quarter results included a non-cash $55.9 million pre-tax mark-to-market loss on natural gas derivatives, which reduced after-tax earnings per diluted share by $0.52."

  • Reply to

    Only 20k sharesafter announcement?

    by brausersean Aug 6, 2012 5:00 PM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 6, 2012 5:27 PM Flag

    No CF shares left for purchase.

  • gradkowski_07 by gradkowski_07 Aug 3, 2012 11:14 AM Flag

    The debate never got started when the livestock lobby pleaded with the EPA to suspend the renewable fuel mandate so they may save a few cents on the price of corn. The EPA told them basically to get lost, there is no chance the mandate will be changed. Nobody wants angry farmers especially in a presidential election year.

    Anyway the idea of increasing imports of foreign oil and forcing refiners to increase the cost of gasoline in order to replace that needed octane from corn ethanol proved to be a very distasteful request. The demand for corn and nitrogen fertilizer will remain very high for at least several years.

  • Reply to

    Time for split and Spec divvy

    by caseevaluator Aug 3, 2012 10:20 AM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Aug 3, 2012 10:49 AM Flag

    Purchase of the remaining portion of the Medicine Hat complex likely cancels any chance of a special dividend.

    Some analysts still don't consider CF to be a true growth stock. But repeated moves like Medicine Hat explains why the CF chart from the initial date of listing shows a pattern even the best growth stocks can't ever match.

    With the CF P/E at such an artificially low multiple, minimal debt and the continued enormous demand for product and cashflow, I don't expect we will see CF remain a public entity in the near future.

  • gradkowski_07 by gradkowski_07 Aug 3, 2012 9:42 AM Flag

    Earnings and guidance will clearly show reason for at least a 25% increase of current multiple.

  • Reply to

    5/25, Wed: Terranova on CNBC says go Long

    by captainwho2 May 23, 2012 2:37 PM
    gradkowski_07 gradkowski_07 Jun 26, 2012 10:40 PM Flag

    The phrase "near term" is meaningless as the market is always looking 6 months into the future especially with corn where the perception of a future harvest can change drastically overnight. The fertilizer market is volatile and profits do move quickly from exponential to ordinary. Don't take anything for granted.

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