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Linn Energy, LLC Message Board

grampoptemp 25 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 41 minutes ago Member since: Apr 6, 1999
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  • grampoptemp grampoptemp 1 hour 41 minutes ago Flag

    Prospertex,

    If the news is made public first, any insider can go ahead and take some profits whenever he or she feels like it. However, insider trading, the last I checked, is some sort of a no-no, so unless that requirement has been canceled, he'd be risking prison to make a few lousy billion dollars.

    But its my hunch that this billionaire would know a lot better what a bargain HLF stock is at $65 or so a share. If anything, he may be the one to touch off this MOASS with a nice buy in the coming days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Does anyone see a pattern here?

    Looks like Pershing Square can expect to hear from HLF Lawyers soon!. That is, assuming Pershing is still solvent by then. All Pershing assets may be needed to cover the 20 million shorted shares still outstanding.

    Should the MOASS run HLF SP up to a reasonably possible $250 per share, average, that bill would come to around $5 billion expended in covering 20 million shorted shares.

    This is assuming that the strong hands owning 116% of HLF shares are determined to hold back from selling till the offer price hits triple digits.

    If you don't think this can happen, just check out Andrea Electronics (ANDR) short squeeze in the mid 90's. That one paid off 100 to 1 at the peak of the squeeze. It took some 7 years to finally collapse back. They are now about a dime or so a share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • grampoptemp grampoptemp 3 hours ago Flag

    Cedarburg,
    Thanks, great point. Who knows? Maybe he is or has already done so.. At this writing, its traded over 5 million shares today, with minutes to go to close.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • compared to their quarterly profit of about $125 million, this could do wonders to HLF's SP!

    It would cost the shorts about $9 million a quarter to maintain their short position, stimulating covering.

    This would increase the pressure on shorts to close out their short positions pronto, as, besides the hole they are in which can only get deeper, they now have to shell out 40 cents a share to those who own shorted shares, as HLF is not obligated to pay them the dividend.

    Meanwhile, this 40 cent dividend would greatly motivate HLF share owners to delay cashing out, while the stock continues to hit new highs every once in a while. Besides resuming the dividend, HLF should initiate periodic share buy-backs, to further apply a vise grip to the squeeze. Maybe a few hundred $million a year, or thereabout. This relentless decrease in supply and increase in demand for HLF shares can only continuously ratchet up the SP, pushing more and more short covering, etc.

    Before you know it, this stock could hit well into the low triple digits, before the institutions and insiders decide they had better lighten up for the eventual end to the squeeze. I figure, a prolonged squeeze like that could easily run the SP up t at least $300 a se at the peak rnzyof short covering.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 128 institutions ADDED 8.3 million shares;
    93 institutions reduced holdings by 5.5 million shares;
    24 institutions remained unchanged holding 83 million shares;
    37 institutions added 676,000 shares;
    24 institutions liquidated HLF holdings, and shed 631,000 shares.
    Total of 245 institutions owned 96.83 million shares, an INCREASE of 2.8 million shares!
    Total outstanding SHORT position was 22.68 million shares;
    Change from April 1 report was down: 0.31 million
    Sure looks like these 245 institutions are clearly bullish on HLF outlook, while shorts have barely seen the handwriting on the wall.

  • grampoptemp grampoptemp 13 hours ago Flag

    The other thing that HLF could do is take some of their 890 million cash hoard, and re-institute a dividend payment. This would have two effects. One is that the cost of remaining short HLF will require shorts to pay out the dividend on their short position.

    The other effect is that resuming the dividend will greatly increase the attractiveness of HLF shares, and stimulate new investment, or at least discourage shareholders from cashing out, as they see HLF shares continuing to rise.

    One more thing HLF can do to put the squeeze into high gear, is to announce their allocation of funds to buy back shares, which would more than offset their $200 million FTC penalty.

    There is then, theoretically, no limit to how high HLF SP goes up, to the point where Pershing Square will run out of margin coverage and be forced to start covering their short position.

    This would be the most satisfying lesson shorts might learn about the risks in selling stock short. You can literally get wiped out as all of PS's assts are subject to liquidation, which would include significant VRX holdings, that are already a sizeable loss.

    So, HLF is now appears to be holding all the cards, and is in a position to bankrupt PS, as alesson to all shorts as to what could happen if the shorts are not on firm ground, but on quicksand.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • grampoptemp grampoptemp 13 hours ago Flag

    Cedarburg,

    Unfortunately, if Ackman is still short 20 million HLF shares, he is not under any compulsion to cover, as long as he can meet any required margin if the price continues to rise. Institutions could intensify the squeeze, by continuing to increase their holdings in HLF, but all he has to do is wait it out.

    Since Pershing Square appears to have sufficient assets to maintain margin coverage requirements, he could continue to hold out indefinitely, as long as institutions do not start pouring more money into HLF shares.

    Thus, the next move is not up to Ackman, it is up to the institutions, who now own 106% of HLF shares, to start applying the squeeze by adding to their positions. There are hundreds of institutions who presently hold HLF shares, and together, they have the buying power to tighten this squeeze into a hangman's knot around PS's neck.

    My bet is that HLF SP is likely to keep moving up significantly until the settlement is announced, when it will then take off like a rocket. I foresee $200 a share HLS SP before Ackman will need to cover to meet his swollen margin debt, when automatically , PS assets will be liquidated to cut margin debt.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • grampoptemp grampoptemp 22 hours ago Flag

    yeah, something like maybe $200,000,000.00

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • That would be the icing on the cake.

    Maybe tomorrow would be better timing for such an announcement.

    Maybe, even a special dividend, payable as of ownership today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Heavy selling volume tomorrow

    by facts16 22 hours ago
    grampoptemp grampoptemp 22 hours ago Flag

    This does not make sense. Why on earth, when you've got a monster short squeeze about to blow the top off, would the institutions settle for chicken feed? There are some 22 million shares shorted.

    Since they own over 100% of the outstanding shares, the shorts will have to pay up dearly for their attempt to destroy a company based on one man's greed?

    With any luck, the shorts will be glad to get out at only about $150 a share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I am out $66.5

    by andrewaleksey 23 hours ago
    grampoptemp grampoptemp 22 hours ago Flag

    Andrew,
    Odds are, you made a mistake. Should have cashed out to cover your investment, and let the rest of the shares on the gaming table for a possible jackpot win, around $200 a share..

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If HLF were to be bought and taken private, let's say at $80 a share, and let's say by Icahn, who already owns about 20% of the shares, the majority of current shareholders would surely vote in favor of such a takeover, and be ready to cash out when the offer is finalized.

    However, there are some 22 million shares short currently. For those who's shares are shorted, the shorter will have to repay these shares to the rightful owner. They will automatically have to buy these shares on the open market, which would then be at a minimum of $80.00, but could go higher if shareholders hold out for a higher price.

    Since institutions and insiders own a total of about 114% of HLF shares, the shorts would have no choice but to meet the price asked by share owners, which, in a short squeeze situation, could rapidly soar to a significant overvaluation before shareholders decide to cash out.

    What's wrong with this scenario. Its been driving me crazy!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • grampoptemp grampoptemp Apr 16, 2016 11:50 AM Flag

    Seems to me that every year, HLF management votes themselves a raise, while the invesotrs get ignored. If they want to attract investors who require a dividend income, they need to reinstate the dividend. This will assuredly tighten the squeeze, as shorts will have to compete with new investors, driving up the SP and drivin out the shorts.

  • Seems like its been a couple of years now that HLF has discontinued their $1.20 dividend.

    This has made it possible for shorts to hang on indefinitely, since they do not have to ante up quarterly dividends to investors who bought their shorted shares. It costs them virtually nothing to sit tight and wait for the longs to give up, sell out and move on.

    So here's a thought. I see where HLF's current cash on hand is the equivalent $9.60 per share. Wouldn't it be dandy if they were to begin issuing quarterly dividends again? On 22 million shares shorted, that would be a quarterly cost to the shorts of some $8.8 million dollars for every quarter they remain short.

    Not only would that reward the current shareholders, it would definitely stimulate buying by those who like to get paid while holding shares that are heavily shorted. This definitely supports the price level should shares begin falling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The first showing ended about 5:30. Its now almost 7pm. Just wondering if any of you participnts in this discussion thread actually heard any news?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • grampoptemp grampoptemp Apr 13, 2016 9:33 PM Flag

    Greg, On the verge of a major FTC ruling, quarterly earnings are almost irrelevant, compared to the impact of some sort of face-saving settlement by the FTC that basically will have little affect on HLF's longer term prospects. But, for the shorts, this will be the starter's gun that begins the race for the shorts to cover before they get wiped out completely. HLF SP is bound to run up into low triple digits within a day or so.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • OK, looks like the shorts are still betting against 240 institutional holders.
    Latest Short position went up again by 752,563 shares
    Institutions added net 105,525 shares.
    What do the shorts know that 240 institutions don't?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It looks like limited institutional net buying in the past month or so, accompanied by short selling activity slightly to the up side, on average, as the price has erratically moved up about $6.00.

    Seems like more UP days on increasing volume, followed by more down days on decreasing volume.

    If this is correct, it would reinforce my conclusion that the Institutions are slowly tightening the noose without panicking the shorts, who are looking to make a killing shorting above the $60 resistance level, expecting to cover in the mid 50's when it drops back down below the resistance.

    Possibly the Betting on Zero documentary will accelerate the squeeze, while the eventual settlement with the FTC will light the fuse, and HLF will rocket into the stratosphere.

    I'd say to the longs, patience here will pay off handsomely when the fuse gets lit.

    But don't confuse the initial surge by 10 to 20 percent with the actual squeeze, where it will have to double to shake out some of the institutional shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    marvin, help me understand something

    by jvtreatmentsystems Apr 3, 2016 2:36 PM
    grampoptemp grampoptemp Apr 4, 2016 7:12 AM Flag

    jv, How can institutions hold 103% of a float? Very simple. The short is borrowing shares from a listed owner. The short then sells these phantom shares to a new owner. There are now two owners for these same shares. The company knows only the original owner, while the short knows the buyer of the shorted shares. In the event of a dividend, the company pays the actual owner, while the short has to ante up the same dividend to the holder of these phantom shares.

    With institutions owning 103% of the shares, they are obviously owning both actual shares, or phantom shares. .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I am sure that the institutional owners of 103% of HLF shares are drooling at the mouth in anticipation of the killing they are about to make, as this drama unfolds.

    This development, where currently some 240 institutions are, on balance, increasing their holdings in HLF, or actually opening new positions, reveals that the overwhelming odds are that HLF will not be found guilty of operating a pyramid scheme. Most likely, HLF will settle for some changes in their business plan, and maybe a token fine to show that the FTC is doing their job.

    This film, Betting on Zero, appears to me to be aimed at exposing the real bad guy's greed and negativity of a single hedge fund manager, in shorting some 20 million shares in an attempt to make a fortune on covering their short position at close to zero prices.

    That's why I have been holding my position, and, lately, buying some deep out of the money long term calls which I expect will result in at least a 10-bagger when the squeeze dust settles.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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