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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

granicus007 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2016 10:12 PM Member since: Feb 24, 2011
  • Reply to

    Piper ASPS target price is $16

    by biotechwatcher May 2, 2016 7:40 AM
    granicus007 granicus007 May 2, 2016 8:03 AM Flag

    Piper's previous price target was $24-the stock closed at $32 Friday, so they were wayyy off. Guess they gotta do something now to talk the stock down so their clients (who have lost their #$%$) can cover their shorts? At PJ's new price target, Altisource could buy back the entire company with about 1 year of cash flow

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Joseph Smith reported today (4/28/2016)

    by fatoldmaninnj Apr 28, 2016 8:44 AM
    granicus007 granicus007 Apr 28, 2016 9:08 AM Flag

    Fat...I was very impressed with Faris this call. He is moving from defense to offense and there are positives in the quarter (ex-monitor shake-downs).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OCN getting crushed

    by bacon2bacon Apr 27, 2016 4:40 PM
    granicus007 granicus007 Apr 28, 2016 8:57 AM Flag

    hana...excellent synopsis. The massive extraction by Regs is the most egregious Ive ever witnessed. Totally out of proportion. Im sure the mafia is envious!

  • granicus007 by granicus007 Apr 28, 2016 8:00 AM Flag

    a cash flow machine, and management pulling the right levers- RESI, debt buy-backs at big discount, share repurchases, big improvements in diversification, ceo buying back shares. Very impressed!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • granicus007 granicus007 Apr 20, 2016 8:40 AM Flag

    Fat, a buddy suggested one of the reasons ASPS short interest increased may simply be due to more long investors buying up the small float, which would mean the short interest increases as a %? The ceo of ASPS is conservative and yet expects 80% growth in the non-Ocwen revs in 2016 (on top of 40% gain in 2015). But both companies are ridiculously cheap IMO. And if the equity markets are going to continue mis- pricing them what's the use of staying public? Oak Tree & Angelo Gordon along with Erbey tried to take Ocwen private in 2008 so it would not surprise me in the least if something was in the works with one or even both companies.
    BTW, I am told it is expensive to borrow Ocwen shares for shorting, so this may account for one reason with Ocwen short %.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • check out the press release from Moody's April 7.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • granicus007 by granicus007 Apr 7, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    google morgan stanley, Ocwen,"Ocwen gets little credit...". A good article that supports Ocwen's servicing practices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Fed must raise rates

    by hanakookie Apr 7, 2016 12:19 AM
    granicus007 granicus007 Apr 7, 2016 8:17 AM Flag

    Im with Hana...no reason to raise now (or the foreseeable future).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    One main Bailout

    by hanakookie Apr 1, 2016 6:07 PM
    granicus007 granicus007 Apr 2, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    Good one...bump!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what does the future hold?

    by granicus007 Mar 31, 2016 8:13 AM
    granicus007 granicus007 Mar 31, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    Hana, so based on the kind of potential returns NRZ could possibly make ( $5B cash flows from call rights alone), maybe their best strategy would be to "first, do no harm"? Why risk any changes, interruptions, when there is so much to be gained? That is yugeee!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • granicus007 by granicus007 Mar 31, 2016 8:13 AM Flag

    Ok, on one hand a few weeks ago, I read that GNMA (?) was actively working to find more capacity with the servicers. Then the WSJ says servicers are having to seek other ways to "reinvent" themselves due to declining UPB and lower profitability due to increased compliance costs. NSM on the other hand seems to continue growing and still maintain acceptable margins,
    So my ? - is the servicer model broken? It seems to me, somene has got to service the mortgages. And as BigBear pointed out the regulatory scrutiny is off the chart across the board ( see Mike N's comments from con call).
    WAC,NSM,PHH,OCN- they are all selling at big disconts to BV. The whole sector. Does the street not have confidence in the underlying assets (MSR)? Or is it the relentless regulatory probes? Maybe all the above?
    Lastly, where does that leave NRZ going forward? Even with servicng licenses, they will need larger servicers to handle the operations. It just seems there are presently very few servicers who have the scale needed, and if those servicers are not making $, and Ocwen's ceo stated they we not really interested in the current MSR available in the marketplace ( assuming Ocwen is ever allowed to buy MSR).
    Count me confused...
    P.S. I think there will almost have to be servicer consolidation at some point. Scale will matter. Who wins, who loses I dunno.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sure Deal

    by hanakookie Mar 28, 2016 6:38 PM
    granicus007 granicus007 Mar 31, 2016 7:38 AM Flag

    Good thots BB. So in the end Ocwen & NRZ could both come out fine. Im long both companies

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    My post was deleted

    by onlylongterm Mar 29, 2016 1:07 PM
    granicus007 granicus007 Mar 29, 2016 1:27 PM Flag

    there may be lots of work for specialty servicers like Ocwen in the future? I recently read GNMA(?) was trying to find more capacity from servicers and subservicers.

  • granicus007 granicus007 Mar 29, 2016 10:48 AM Flag

    shorts ruling the roost right now...

  • Reply to

    Sure Deal

    by hanakookie Mar 28, 2016 6:38 PM
    granicus007 granicus007 Mar 29, 2016 9:29 AM Flag

    Hana,
    * wouldn't the new Ocwen covenants make it easier for S&P to upgrade their servicer rating? And if S&P upgrades there would be no potential issue in April 2017?
    * after what Mike N said on the last con call, he wants to make Ocwen a long term partner. You thinking Ocwen just may find it safer to be a subservicer (and let someone else deal with the liabilities,regulators)? Once NRZ get their 50 state licenses maybe that is what they work out?
    * I'm thinking the April 2017 possible event will be worked out between NRZ & OCN (assuming no S&P upgrade) with maybe Ocwen paying NRZ more $ if necessary. If not, I'm not sure all the regulators would risk large transfers (but that is assuming the Regs dont really want to kill Ocwen (my base case).

  • Reply to

    TL amendment

    by fatoldmaninnj Mar 24, 2016 8:03 PM
    granicus007 granicus007 Mar 27, 2016 9:36 PM Flag

    Bump

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