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James River Coal Şirketi Message Board

gray1808 59 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 23, 2015 6:22 PM Member since: Jul 20, 2012
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  • gray1808 gray1808 Nov 23, 2015 6:22 PM Flag

    Please note that this is one of my clones speaking for me(qray1808)

    No connection between gray1808 and qray1808.

  • Reply to

    OCLR China Outlook - Earnings call transcript

    by gray1808 Nov 3, 2015 9:07 PM
    gray1808 gray1808 Nov 22, 2015 12:06 PM Flag


    OCLR has relationships with the leading vendors selling optical systems in China so the issues are competitive positioning of the new generation products and volume manufacturing.

    Please see this OCLR competitive positioning slide from the OCLR investor relations website.

    "Strong Competitive Market Position

    100G Client Side Transceivers - #1 Vendor
    100G Lithium Niobate Coherent Modulator - Top 3 Vendor
    100G Coherent ITLA Lasers - Top 3 Vendor
    100G-200G Coherent CFP2-ACO - #1 Vendor
    400G Single Wavelength Lithium Niobate Modulator - First to sample

    Sources: Company estimates, and Lightcounting"

  • Reply to

    OCLR China Outlook - Earnings call transcript

    by gray1808 Nov 3, 2015 9:07 PM
    gray1808 gray1808 Nov 19, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    China will award the new 100G business to multiple vendors but OCLR is Number 1 in client side transceivers and CFP2-ACO Coherent modules so OCLR should take a large share of this business in 2016.

    The Chinese vendors will become a factor in 2017 since their development cycles tend to follow the US vendors.

    It should be noted that OCLR has substantial fab capacity so when there are large orders from China then OCLR is one of the few vendors able to scale up 100G production.

  • Reply to

    OCLR China Outlook - Earnings call transcript

    by gray1808 Nov 3, 2015 9:07 PM
    gray1808 gray1808 Nov 19, 2015 10:25 AM Flag


    The Chinese government understands that the infrastructure in the information age is the telecom/mobile network requiring substantial investment. $182 Billion will buy a lot of optical gear.

    I was reading some comments from Nokia yesterday about their merger with Alcatel and future plans. China appears to be a bright spot because of the government programs including a new 5G network.

    Oclaro is well positioned for the China business as a leader in 100G with China manufacturing. If you read the latest OCLR earning call transcript there is a discussion about ramping up production of the new 100/200G CFP2 ACO modules in China in 2016.

  • Reply to

    Drip Drip Drip....

    by shareholder_in_residence Nov 17, 2015 10:24 AM
    gray1808 gray1808 Nov 17, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    The 100G upcycle is in progress with OCLR as a leader.

    Concerning news, FNSR reports on December 10th. I would expect positive news concerning China who are in the process of placing orders for a major 100G network upgrade.

  • Reply to

    OCLR China Outlook - Earnings call transcript

    by gray1808 Nov 3, 2015 9:07 PM
    gray1808 gray1808 Nov 17, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    Three-year investment aims to increase connections and speed while cutting service costs
    RCR Wireless News

    China’s State Council this week announced plans to boost Internet speeds nationwide, while also cutting costs, in a three-year program reportedly worth a staggering $182 billion.

    In a policy statement, the State Council noted “there is still a huge gap between China’s network speed and international standards as well as the expectations of the Chinese people. There are also issues such as high network fees and unbalanced development in rural and urban areas, and limited quality of services.”

    Per the plan, construction of LTE and fiber-optic networks will be accelerated; more than 80 million homes and 10,000 villages will get hooked up to fiber in 2015, and an additional 14,000 villages will receive broadband coverage. Planned spending is projected at around $69 billion this year, and an additional $112 billion over 2016 and 2017.

    The State Council is targeting completion of 1.3 million LTE base stations by the end of the year to support more than 300 million 4G subscribers.

    “By the end of 2017, all households in locations above prefecture level will have access to 100 [megabit per second]fiber-optic networks, over 80% of villages will be covered by fiber-optic networks, all cities and villages will be covered by 4G networks, and broadband speeds in municipalities and provincial capitals will reach 30 Mbps,” the State Council stated.

  • Reply to

    OCLR China Outlook - Earnings call transcript

    by gray1808 Nov 3, 2015 9:07 PM
    gray1808 gray1808 Nov 14, 2015 11:49 AM Flag

    Nokia reported strong sales in China this past quarter mentioning a major network expansion plan from China Mobile.

    The Chinese government is encouraging the China mobile carriers to do upgrades in 2016 as infrastructure spending.

    Oclaro should be able to take major market share in China with the new 100G CFP2-ACO which will be manufactured in China.

    The China telecom network should be a boost for Oclaro sales in 2016.

  • gray1808 gray1808 Nov 12, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    This Needham Conference presentation (full presentation on the OCLR investor website) shows that the turnaround is complete with massive staff cuts and new products ready now.

    An important point is that Oclaro is a market leader in large segments of the 100G business which should have strong growth over the next several quarters.

    If Soros plans to convert his convertible options soon then he could buy more OCLR shares on the market in 2015 based on the outlook for 2016.

  • gray1808 gray1808 Nov 11, 2015 5:59 PM Flag

    Oclaro - Strong Competitive Market Position

    100G Client Side Transceivers Oclaro #1

    100G-200G Coherent CFP2-ACO Oclaro #1

  • Oclaro: Well Positioned For Sustained Growth
    • Turnaround Complete
    • Strong Revenue Growth Driven By 100G
    • Non-GAAP Gross Margin At 26%
    • Q1 FY16 Achieved Non-GAAP Operating Income
    • Adjusted EBITDA Positive $4.2M
    • Driving Growth Through Traction In 100G And Above
    • Broad 100G+ Product Portfolio Serving A $1B Addressable Market In 2016
    • Market Leader For 100G Client Side (CFP, CFP2,CFP4): $350M SAM In 2016
    • Emerging 100G Data Center (QSFP28): $150M SAM In 2016
    • Coherent CFP2-ACO For 100G/200G Applications: $200M SAM In 2016
    • Gaining Share In micro-ITLA And Lithium Niobate Modulators: $300M SAM In 2016
    • Increasing Gross Margin
    • Revenue, 100G Mix, Operational Improvements
    • Continuing To Innovate

  • "Recently, we began to see very strong demand signals from China as it appears that our customers are preparing for awards for 100G systems from both China mobile and China telecom. The demand is both our client and lineside 100G products.

    We expect to see continued 100G sales growth in China and believe that revenue in Q2 and Q3 of fiscal 2016 will continue to be constrained by our ability to increase capacity.

    All-in-all, we continue to be very well positioned for 100G applications in multiple markets including long-haul telecom, metro, datacenter interconnect, intra datacenter, routing and switching."

  • Reply to

    OCLR November 3 Conference Call

    by gray1808 Oct 30, 2015 11:49 AM
    gray1808 gray1808 Nov 3, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    OCLR in the recent investor presentations say that analysts are predicting the CFP2-ACO market in 2016 is $200 million.

    If this is correct then what percentage of this market will be OCLR sales?

    Can OCLR get 40%+ of this market?

  • Reply to

    OCLR November 3 Conference Call

    by gray1808 Oct 30, 2015 11:49 AM
    gray1808 gray1808 Nov 3, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    Yesterday NPTN reported a strong outlook for 100G sales in China.

    It will be interesting to hear the OCLR guidance later today.

  • News about profitability and outlook should be good.

    What will be the OCLR stock price on November 4th?

  • Reply to

    The same old conundrum for long time OCLR holders

    by daeargiman Oct 25, 2015 12:05 AM
    gray1808 gray1808 Oct 25, 2015 2:10 PM Flag

    OCLR is in an upcycle now and the stock should have a run in 2016.

    Considering that OCLR has gone through a dramatic restructuring (3,000 to 1,300 staff) and a focus on new high margin products, investors need to observe how this new Oclaro performs.

    We are just now seeing the benefits of the restructuring and the doom and gloom analysis of the old Oclaro needs to be reevaluated based on their current performance.

    Concerning OCLR being acquired, I doubt that it will happen until the stock is above $6 so we will see this speculation again in 2016.

  • gray1808 gray1808 Oct 24, 2015 5:56 PM Flag

    Beyond the update for this past quarter I am interested in their guidance for the next two quarters.

    Oclaro has a hot new product line with the 100/200G CFP-ACO and the guidance should be strong with GM's in the high 20's or low 30's.

    Moving forward Oclaro needs to ramp volumes with their fabs.

    It seems lost on the investors that OCLR has the capability to substantially increase revenues and profits because of their past history of poor performance with the 10/40G products.

    If I were Oclaro management, I would focus the November conference call on the new 100/200G products and ability to ramp production in 2016.

  • gray1808 gray1808 Oct 23, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    During the November OCLR earnings call we will hear an update on the new 100G CFP2-ACO production ramp.

    This is the award winning product finally going to volume production in calendar Q4 2015 which should boost sales and profits considerably.

  • Reply to

    Could've been short covering

    by jda254 Oct 20, 2015 7:17 AM
    gray1808 gray1808 Oct 21, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    Hitachi, a major owner of Oclaro, recently disposed of 1,300,000 shares of the company. The disposals took place at $2.36 per share, on October 19, 2015. Hitachi still owns 10,600,000 shares of the company.

  • Reply to

    After hour action

    by ccyjunk Oct 19, 2015 6:49 PM
    gray1808 gray1808 Oct 19, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    While there has not been announcement, earnings report would be expected in early November.

  • Reply to

    After hour action

    by ccyjunk Oct 19, 2015 6:49 PM
    gray1808 gray1808 Oct 19, 2015 8:39 PM Flag

    This is some type of large fund deal and the motivation is unclear now.

    Considering that the shorts have been attacking OCLR, this could be just another short maneuver before earnings to shake loose long shares.

    If there is some news on OCLR, selling after hours in one trade is not too subtle.