The UPL stock price in the last 30 days is not following any historical trends versus natural gas spot prices.
The increase in natural gas prices should at least be adding $2 per UPL share now.
Natural gas is taking a run to $5 so let's see what happens to the UPL stock in early January as new money flows into the top 2014 stock picks.
There is obvious manipulation of JRCC by the shorts.
This game may hit them hard in January as the tax loss selling ends and the "market leaders" discover that coal is a beaten down sector especially with higher natural gas prices.
JRCC is the most volatile coal stock so it can bounce quickly up.
This convertible debt has been discussed at length by OCLR management so it is no surprise.
I take the announcement that the bondholders all have agreed to convert as a sign of stock price appreciation since the bond is a safer option.
Also, the bondholders may be thinking that they should convert now before a possible acquisition in 2014.
The next milestone in the OCLR recovery is the continued RIF down to 1500 employees by July 2014.
There are big plans for new LTE-A mobile networks worldwide for the next several years so OCLR should see a rising sales trend in 2014.
WSJ --Natural-gas futures climbed 4.9% to the highest level in nearly two-a-half years Thursday as government data showed strong demand pulled record volumes of gas from storage last week.
Gas inventory fell by 285 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 13, the Energy Information Administration said. That far exceeded the average of forecasts gathered by The Wall Street Journal for a decline of 260 bcf. It exceeded the top end of the forecast range of 280 bcf.
The EIA said gas inventory dropped to 3.248 trillion cubic feet, a three-year low for this time of year. The stockpile is 13.1% below a year ago, which is the biggest deficit since July 12.
Stocks also are 7.4% below the five-year average for this time of year, which Amy Sweeney, an EIA analyst said, is "likely" the largest deficit to historical level on EIA's records beginning in 1994.
Natural gas for January delivery settled 4.9 cents, or 20.7 cents, higher, at $4.46 per million British thermal units. That is the highest price since July 20, 2011. The rise in dollar terms was the biggest in 18 months, since June 12, 2012. In percentage terms, the gain was the largest in five months, since July 18.
Analysts said traders are setting their sights on $5/mm Btu gas, last seen in June 2010.
$25 million in debt was eliminated from the balance sheet and now OCLR is debt free.
The next step is to get down to 1,500 employees by July 1, 2014.
I listened to the Gabelli interview on Bloomberg with WFT being recommended.
He implies that there could be management changes at WFT which would unlock the value doubling the stock price in the next 12 - 18 months.
Perhaps Gabelli knows something about plans to change management or maybe a leveraged buyout.
What is your explanation for the difference between the state and EIA numbers?
Has the EIA ever commented on this issue?
What does this mean for natural gas prices in 2014?
The cold weather is raising US natural gas prices to the highest level in 2 years.
Winter has not even started yet and a continued cold winter can drive natural gas prices over $5.
US spot coal prices track natural gas and the JRCC coal inventory should be sold for a good price this winter.
ATLANTIC MET COAL: High vol B price picks up on increased demand
London (Platts)--17Dec2013/310 pm EST/2010 GMT
Demand for US high vol B coals has increased in recent days, with higher prices resulting from limited supply and mills looking to buy cheaper coals.
One US miner said he had received enquiries for high vol B material from both traders and steel mills in Asia, Europe and South America. He said that as there is little or no availability he was expecting to conclude spot deals before the end of the year at around $119/mt FOB USEC for Q1 delivery.
There are 3 issues that could surprise the US natural gas market soon.
1. Colder than normal winter - with a deficit to the 5 year average much larger than expected.
2. Production - Production is flat and does not respond to higher prices
3. Dry gas 2014 budgets - There is little reaction from the oil and gas producers to $4 natural gas prices. Instead drilling budgets continue to be invested in oil and liquids production with reduced new 2014 budgets for dry gas.
Once the current assumptions about ample storage and production are called into question then a move through $4.40 can happen quickly.
JRCC CEO comment from Q3 2013 conference call
"We haven't been -- we have not been quiet or we have not been sitting still on the liquidity side. There were just a couple of things that needed to be done before we could finalize things, so that's what we've done.
And I feel relatively optimistic about where we are right now, but at the same time, I also need to be cautionary that a lot of things need to happen. There are a lot of agreements that need to be reached and a lot of negotiating that still has to take place. But I do feel a little bit better, having gotten everything out there."
The oilfield services industry may well be poised for a strong 2014 driven by higher oil prices as well as improving conditions in some of the world’s largest economies. According to the Global 2014 E&P Spending Outlook published by Barclays in early December, global exploration and production spending is expected to grow by around 6.1% to a record $723 billion in 2014.  The overall spending mix is expected to move away from large infrastructure projects towards oilfield services such as drilling, evaluation and completions, which could translate to better business for oilfield service companies.  While North America is expected to see a recovery, with spending projected to rise by around 7% to around $156 billion, a significant part of the absolute spending growth is expected to come from national oil companies (NOC) in international markets such as Latin America and the Middle East
ST. LOUIS, Dec. 17, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Arch Coal, Inc. (ACI) today announced the successful completion of a series of financing transactions, including amendments to its senior secured credit facility, a $300 million senior secured Term Loan B facility, a previously announced private offering of $350 million aggregate principal amount of 8.000% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due 2019 (the "2019 Notes") and the initial settlement of its previously announced cash tender offer (the "Tender Offer") for any and all of its outstanding 8.750% Senior Notes due 2016 (the "2016 Notes").
Global demand for coal will continue to grow in the next five years, albeit at a more modest pace, the International Energy Agency said Monday in its medium-term outlook for the fuel.
Demand will grow 2.3% a year through 2018, compared with a 2012 forecast of 2.6% for the five years through 2017 and an actual growth rate of 3.4% a year between 2007 and 2012.
“Like it or not, coal is here to stay for a long time to come,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said. “Coal is abundant and geopolitically secure, and coal-fired plants are easily integrated into existing power systems.”
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Exploration and production companies are likely to keep favoring crude oil in their production mixes despite the recent gains for natural-gas futures prices.
For most producers, oil projects continue to provide a higher rate of return than gas projects, analysts at Simmons & Co. said in a note to clients Monday. E&P companies are more likely to increase their gas hedging positions at these prices and use the improved cash flows to support oil drilling programs, they said.
Higher gas prices should provide the companies with an incentive to start some gas projects on the margin, but at this time we do not expect any large-scale shifting of capital expenditures and activity to natural gas, Simmons added.
You would be the best person to explain the game going on now with hedge funds.
Perhaps you can answer your own question truthfully.
No 3 word answers allowed.
This is the optical upcycle driven by carrier spending.