OK, so now your tone has changed. So instead the drug seller generally would not advertise before launch. But I thought it was the FDA that forced them to not advertise until the drug is first seen in the market.
Man, you are one scared desparate short.
The FDA has no restriction on the timing when drug maker can advertise, you are full of BS. As long as the information on warning labels are clearly addressed on TV, magazines, underwears, then the drug makers can choose to advertise when and where which ever way they want to spend their money.
Noticed how OPC created another alias and he answered his own lies? FDA need to approve TV commercials, OMG! How the lies are becomming more and more desparate.
Biggest crock of shieet I have heard in a long time. Mike is most likely a professional paid basher, notice how he mixes some truth with the lies? The truth will get people to believe in him when he is actually telling lies. Any company is allowed to advertise as they please, the timing and media they choose depends how much money they want to spend to maximize return. They can start advertising on TV now if they choose to but why waste money when the product isn't available til 3-4 months down the road. By then people will have forgotten about the product they saw.
These shorts are desparate, they will say anything.
projected first year revenue in The USA alone with 30 mil diabetics. Let's jus assume 33% will want to be on Afrezza. 33% isn't outrageous number of the 30 mil total. 50% comes from insulin dependent; most of these pts want to be on meal time Afreza. The other 50% are not yet on insulin but will probably want to be on Afreeza to cover meals in order to reduce disease progression, maybe 20% from this group. Thus 33% market infiltrate i the US alone isn't bad.
Let's assume based on your previous calculation that each pt spends about $1000/yr. Then you have $10 bil revnue from US alone Sanofi CEO just went to Isrea, this is an example that they could be getting orders from foreign countries as well on the first year out.
Mnkd gets $3.5 bil cut, not bad on first year.
I agree with you to some degree, that an estimation of $200 bil revenue from Afrezza based on number of diabetics alone is high. But in defense of the author to the original thread, he based his calculation on numbers, reasonable numbers. So, instead of 50% of diabetic population, what if they are able to reach just 5%? Then the revenue should be around $20 bil, which is still high beating every estimates out there by 5-10 folds..
You can't really discount the calculation, because numbers don't lie.
a number of investors on Yahoo Message Board have calculated the potential market cap around that area as well, even larger. The $35 bil is the cut for Mankd.
I think Al Mann is a visionary; the reason why he took such a small upfront charge isn't to rally the stock short term; he knew that the price would fall after the FDA and partnership; the shorts are on his tail. The only way to kill the shorts is not to worry about the short term but acquire the best company in the world that can commercialize Afrezza and sell it. A year form now, $7 may be the daily fluctuations.
He has not announced the manufacturer to the inhaler; I am hoping that he has something else up his sleeves to trap and kill the shorts, blind sided! Because if nothing happens from now until launch, advertisements will and words will not get out until November or so. Hence the shorts will have at least a month to cover safely and get out. I for one hate these shorts with a passion.
LOL, this is what you call entry level paid basher. The more professional ones are Investment God, OPC, AllinAfrezza-- these guys actually have proper grammar and maybe college educations. Short hedge funds are hiring more bashers?
In 2003, Apple came out with ITunes, I bought 4k shares at $14/sh and sold everything at $19 because I needed cash. I am not letting this one go, shorts are fighting against long term investors that would rather see this go to zero than to sell at this level.
Shorts and institutions are looking to get cheap shares, not going to get any cheaper than this. Even though the volume of shares is close to 400 mil but Al Mann owns nearly half. Thus, the true float is only close to 200 mil shares. Institutions have owned 89 mis share already, how much more do they want? Thus, about 100 mil shares are owned among retailers-- hold tight, don't let them steal your $1000/sh stock.
The shorts are right, this is a cult stock because we believe in this novelty, blockbuster drug with unlimited potential revenue.
one of the largest companies in the world is marketing one of the biggest drugs (if not the biggest) with novel delivery, with around 80 mil shares shorted. Any bank with some liquidity can come into mankind and rally this for a huge gain, even without substantial proof of Afrezza being a blockbuster.
A sitting timed bomb.
I will buy SNY next year, rumor has it that they don't get the 65% cut until revenue exceeds $2 bil .
rumors, but management needs to disclose this. A lot of things on this partnership isn't disclosed to public yet. This deal is taking a reverse turn now, Sanofi is having access to technosphere to implement Lantus which their patent expires in 2015.
then their patients will start asking if they can also get their long acting, Lantus inhaled too. Guess what?! sanofi Lantus patent is ending in 2015, right at about the same time they will implement Lantus into technosphere. It will be interesting how much Mankkind is charging in that partnership! Kaching!!
They should advertise now, so by the time they get their first production batch out, orders will go through the roof. Once the patients sitting their living room see the commercials and realizing they don't have to stick themselves with needle on every meals, they will beg their doctors to have it.
Pts who aren't started on insulin during meal times will start asking for Afrezza to prevent worsening of the disease progression.
C'mon Sanofi do the commercials sometimes beginning in October; there is gonna be a lot of TV watching during the holidays.
can't wait to see their first TV commercial where the patient is inhaling instead of injecting; this will be viral
I agree with Antimater that this makes a lot of sense because it protects both mnkd and Sanofi. Sanoifi does't have to put much risk upfront and allows Sanofi to utilize its preexisting commercial power and sales force. Mankind, to the minimum, gets it's R&D expenses covered. Both companies will have concerted effort trying to get Afrezza sales as high as they can, preventing any future back stabbing or hostile takeover by Sanofi. It's the only perfect plan I have heard so far, unless anyone else knows anything ele.
Is this planned out by Alfred Mann to really kill the shorts? For the most part, the terms of this partnership isn't made known to the public except for this $150 mil upfront pay with $750 mil that will come with meeting milestones. But no one really knows these milestones are. So instead of covering, the shorts added more to their over shorted positions.
Could this rumor be true that Mnkd takes all the revenue if revenue is less than $2 bill in order to cover expenses (which is the cost of prior R&D). Thus, Sanofi upfront pay of $150 mil and the use of its commercial power and sales force, to help push the revenue above $2 bil in order to get the 65% profit sharing? If that is the case, the perception of this deal may take a nasty turn on the shorts.
Afrezza is approved for all diabetes, types I and II, except for those with Asthma and COPD. It's up to Sanofi sales rep now to convince the docs and the patients.
How do you know this? The terms to the milestones aren't disclosed to the public yet. YOu are saying Sanofi pays $150 mils upfront, helps mankind with commercialization, sales, and ALL the profit goes to mankind if it is under $2 bil???? Sanofi only gets the split if profit exceeds $2 bil? Is this real?