The most important question is: Will Software revenue ($67m in Q4) improve significantly? That is, will it improve once again by 20-25%?
Answer: Very likely, especially with the WatchDox acquisition. Also, keep in mind steady increases in QNX (increases reported the past 3 quarters in a row, even if no one except John Chen, James Yersh, and the BOD knows what the exact numbers are); increases in BBM revenue ("Meetings" is top 100 business app in 39 countries at Google Play & top 500 in 76 countries in the iOS Store); increased conversions to BES12 (and associated upselling); previous conversions to BES12 now fully past their extended free period; a full three months of service fees from the millions of BES10/EZ Pass/perpetual silver enrollees; fees from the newly introduced Zigbee certificate program; and other revenue from the BTS department under a highly motivated Sandeep Chennakeshu. My prediction is software revenue of at least $80m -- with hopes that it will be closer to "blow-out" levels.
The second most important question: Will hardware sales and revenues go down, hold steady, or go up? A linked question: What is the base number -- the 1.3m on which BB booked revenue in Q4 or the 1.6m "sold through" devices? It looks as if BB ought to get a flying start on its sales figures for Q1, given that sales of 300K devices were considered advanced enough in Q4 to be sold through, but through some accounting scruple not advanced enough to be booked as revenue. To meet last quarter's number of 1.3m devices, then, BB essentially had to sell another 1 million devices in total between March 1 and May 31. I see no signs of panic: no fire sales, no inventory clear-outs. Both gut and head tell me that sales will be closer to 1.6m this quarter than to 1.3m. This would mean hardware revenue could be as much as $75 million greater than it was in Q4, though I'll be happy with an extra $40 million.
The third question has already been answered: What will service revenue be? It was ~$309 last time, and BB guided for another 15% drop. That's approximately $47m. And everyone knows that in a couple of years this source of revenue will dry up. EOM.
The back of my envelope says BB revenues will be $80m (software) + $320m (hardware) + $262m (services) = $662m total. Of course, I'm hoping the number will be higher, but I'll be OK with this "hold-steady" number. The key takeaways for investors who do serious due diligence will be:
1. Software revenues rise significantly; Chen might actually be on track to hit his $500m software + $100m BBM targets by year end.
2. Hardware revenues stabilize. Average selling price improves again -- from $181 (Q3) to $220 (Q4) to $235? (Q1/16). BlackBerry has found its niche with highly praised unique phones. The work that remains to be done is to obliterate the app gap once and for all, perhaps through a tie-up with Google, and to get sales back up to 2 million per quarter
Apple is now a one trick pony..
from top software computer company reduced to selling cell phones to survive.
If it wasn't for all the cash it's hoarding out of country to not pay taxes, it would probably be trading at the 7$ as back in the e90's
You not very smart gay man.
I tell you this for you to have information.
You no care aaple traitor to America buyers.
Maybe you daddy was right.
Should have aborted.
"....When Apple earns a dollar, it goes on the world's most famous tax-free vacation.
Let's take, for example, the first dollar from an iPhone sold in China. That buck flies to an Apple subsidiary in Ireland. From there, it'll take a round-trip to the Netherlands and back, this time to a second Irish subsidiary. Finally, the dollar will cross the Atlantic to land in a tropical island in the Caribbean, where it will reside, outside the glare of U.S. tax law, in the shade of a tax haven..."
Apple hides its profit out of the USA.. saved no one.
Apple is traitor to America, rakes in billions from American consumer and hides it, to not pay its corporate taxes... overall tax rate is 11%.. what's yours.
all legit of course. when you budget millions for accounts, it's not hard to make thievery legal..
I think not till bbm secure monetization is complete and shows solid growth..
That's what my crystal ball is showing..
Itards and crapdroids do not care.. it's a fashion thing.. when they move out of their parents basement and get jobs, they'll figure it out...
It's not a matter of time and patience..
2 numbers.. one sim..
If you're in the game to make money.... And not a fanboy..
Dump apple and load up on bbry... you'll never get 300% return with I_apple...
You will with bbry.. be smart.
Dual number, one sim... Brilliant!
Apple.. toy watch company, has lost its soul...
Coming at you.. Internet of things, powered by QNX.. love it.