hi pete and cross, the other thing to note, for example as with today's trading, we DO NOT particularly want to see Sprint go parabolic, not yet, I would much prefer to see days where it pops up 30 cents or so and then comes back 15 cents, this type of price movement indicates accumulation, it tends to weed out hot money and those who would over-speculate.......much rather see us work our way in such fashion up to about $10 or $11, then a pop on big news of some sort.....note, all these gains are on no particular news and in fact in the face of downgrades.....making the move all that more impresssive.........
Time will tell, but $15 is the number...$15 is a fair price for Sprint right now, given the obvious and significant opportunities and handwriting-on-the-wall regarding finacials as Network Vision/Spark come to fruition......
One thing to make note of, there needs to be much more volume before we could even consider that any large holders might be taking profits. There just is not enough volume for profit taking at this price level, likewise not enough volume for 97 Million shorts to cover....this all comes back to the scarcity of available shares......let's see what the volume looks like above $10......also, I still say shorts are going to be heavily exploited......for they MUST cover at some point
remember that while Sprint has made a nice move, it is still WAY undervalued, there are few shares available, and the short interest is high, latest figures coming out today........I too am starting to suspect some big news brewing...as others have mentioned, some network/spectrum sharing partnership with dish seems a likely candidate....
I still believe (as I have said for a year) Son wants the equity at $15 (give or take) which would then perhaps make sense to use equity in a deal with DT for TMUS...anything less.....too undervalued...
with it trading as it has, if it works its way to 9 or 10, then 13 or 14 is certainly within range to pop to on some big news.....we'll see.....we are also in short squeze territory here.....remember, hedge funds and big money all-too-clearly recognize a position that can be exploited.....in this case 100 Million shares short and few shares available to buy.....I wouldn't bet on it but it's not impossible such could find themselves twisting in the wind at $30.....
Hi Pete and Cross, yes, well, the cat is out of the bag really, it's a matter now of which institutions can gather up shares at ultra-cheap below $10 prices before the stock normalizes back to $15+........it's also a race against some inevitable big news, as it is all too obvious Son has a plan. My best guess is that there will be a network/spectrum sharing deal with dish...ie. Sprint gets paid for use of their network part of which payment is access to dish Spectrum and probably some arrangement regarding content that dish has rights to...we shall see, but that's my best guess....one suspects a tmus deal though I would think the timing of that would have to be a bit further off......I would think Son would use some Sprint equity (at a higher price) to do the deal with DT.....
The short squeeze is still shaping up, latest short interest info out on the 26th. Still feel we could see $15 near term. Latest price action and H-Block info makes me suspect a possible Dish deal....and of course TMUS has always been a possibility.
that doesn't include paulsons stke or cooperman's stake or cohen's stake, we still need more numbers out, but your point is correct, there are few shares available
I saw that report too, it is misleading, this current report is the first post merger report, most of the media has no idea what it is taking about
you can do the math and see that the stake is about 26% of what it was, that says it's most certainly what shares he received in the merger, ie. he took cash abd got 26% in shares
It's this simple:
1) 104 Million shares short at last report of short interest
2) 721 Million shares in the tradable float (stub)
3) upcoming reports of institutional holdings are the first post-merger look at who's in
4) Cooperman, preeminent value investor, has 95 Million shares
5) when the value guys accumulate they are doing so for longer-term holds
6) you tell me how this story ends
Now here's an interesting one from a Marketwatch article. What's particularly noteworthy is the presence of Steve Cohen, note that per recent media Steven Cohen has increased his position in Sprint, we don't have the filing that I can find to see the number of shares, but there was media on his increasing his position in Sprint.
Of all the companies on the S&P 1500 Index, shares of Supervalu have jumped the most year-to-date with a 174% rise. Nearly 26% of shares are currently shorted, but that’s a far cry from early February when more than 41% of the supermarket chain’s outstanding shares were short. In January, Standard & Poor’s put the company on ratings watch for an upgrade, while in February Fitch Ratings raised the firm’s junk-debt rating by a notch. Supervalu is also a favorite of Steve Cohen’s SAC Capital Advisors, which increased its stake in the company to 5.1%, according to an early April filing.
Excerpt from NY Times article:
Briefly, here are the relevant facts. Porsche, for some reason, wants to control Volkswagen, and by building up its stake has driven up the price. Hedge funds, figuring the share price would fall as soon as Porsche got control and stopped buying, sold a lot of VW shares short.
Then last weekend, Porsche disclosed that it owned 42.6 percent of the stock and had acquired options for another 31.5 percent. It said it wanted to go to 75 percent.
The result: instant short-squeeze. The German state of Lower Saxony owns a 20 percent stake in VW, which it said it would not sell. That left precious few shares available for anyone else. The shorts scrambled to cover, and the price leaped from about €200, or about $265, to above €1,000. VW became the world's most valuable company, if you believed that market price.
I put it more in the category of "unexpected", which of couse is why it will probably occur....you have too many shorts, not enough shares, and let's face it, how many low dollar stocks have you seen make a 25% to 30% move in a couple of weeks.....it happens......it can happen here...stay tuned
next catalyst up is the institutional holdings due out mid-month....
......if these show, as I suspect they will, a significant number of large value holders establishing positions post merger....we will see the end of the sub-merger prices.....meaning a significant breakout above the merger price of $7.65.....most likely buyers will need to pony up $10 or more to get a share.....
...again, I am rarely inclined to short term prognostications, as obviously anything can occur short term, but it's not wholly unlikely we could see a breakout to about $10 or more by mid-month.....
exactly, I'm only referencing known numbers in filings....it stands to reason that with one value investor grabbing significant share...there are many others...compare how many shares old Sprint were available, about 3.1 Billion (which were 86 percent institutionally owed, or 2.6 Billion in institutional hands) .....to the 721 Million of New Sprint available.......it's NOT like institutions now want LESS of the number three carrier which is about to breakout in every way......just on this point alone buckle in
no need to overthink or overanalyze this....big brand name company, at tail end of long turnaround, great backing from behemoth Softbank....more Spectrum than VZ and AT&T combined........makes sense to own it......so there is demand for the stock....and simply not much supply...721 Million shares folks....that's it, no more......cooperman alone has 95 Million, Dodge and Cox 66 Million, there are 104 Million shorts.......value investors are lining up here........ there just aren't enough shares to go around...do the math
now valued at $41 Billion on the balance sheet from the Form 8k filing out today.....that's 41 Billion......and factually given prices paid or offered for other spectrum/companies purchased for their spectrum, it's way undervalued .....
.....current market cap of the all of Sprint is only 26 Billion ...sometime soon people are going to WAKE UP to the EXTREME UNDERVALUATION of this company...EXTREME
also btw, while I'm not much in the practice of calling short term daily price swings, since anything can happen short term, look for a close over $7 today
btw, with the cooperman revelation that he has 95 Million shares, the cat is out of the bag for the value crowd, now it's just a matter of how much can then buy at these rediculously low prices before there simply are no more shares at this price point.
Also, watch for the possible squeeze, make no mistake there are 104 Million shorts who have no idea how to exit this trade, do you know what would happen to the price if the shorts run for the exit, even trying to exit the position over a couple of months will run the price high....remember what happened when Son was buying 75 Million shares over the course of a month and a half.
104 Million shares in a stock where there are only 721 Million shares trading, where THE name in value investing just announced he's got 95 Million shares, it's also a situation which is ripe to exploit, as in shorts will have to pay up when the REAL buying starts......right now shorts are just being toyed with
Demonstrated 1 GB speeds with the potential of over 2GB, this CANNOT be matched by AT&T, VZ or T-Moble.
Great earnings report with losses of subs from iden /cdma joit accounts less than anticipated, Hesse guided to even less losses in Q4, then that's it, that's the last of the iden issues.
45 Market went live today for a total of 230...........Sprint had stated 200 markets total by end of year.......sounds like the era of underpromise and overdeliver is here......