While ILMN stock is up right now, and the initiative with big pharma sounds good, ILMN investors really need to now question ILMN's business model and market positioning.
Flatley's new initiative to create one test for drug development / genetic testing will NO DOUBT alienate all of its genetic testing customers who are creating single test cancer arrays. ILMN's DNA technology is an increasing commodity - with significant competition / new technologies on the horizon - and Flateley is trying to re-position ILMN downstream to compete downstream with its client base. In doing so, expect a major backlash by single-test array customers, such as Myriad Genetics and Genomic Health, who suddenly find their market positioning under major threat by its supplier ILMN.
You could see a massive fall-off of product sales due to this.
Take profits now!
Sentiment: Strong Sell
CLRX will need to do another capital raise next quarter. They have less than two quarters of cash left if they really skim expenses, as they are burning about $1.2 million per quarter. I was only able to listen to part of the conference call, up to the point where Mika said revenue was challenging (only $64,000 in the quarter is not good). I will listen to the rest of the call and Q&A tonight and have some additional comments.
On an important note, CLRX did improve the Board and the management team significantly with their two recent additions. This is vital, as Mika certainly does not have a good track record given his poor performance running Tegal. He needs all the help he can get, and to his credit, CLRX added a COO with strong sector experience and a Board Member with an outstanding track record.
The operating leverage in the CLRX business remains large, given the $5 million annual cost to break-even, not including expansion costs for other business lines. The customer base continues to improve, and it is true, that we are in the early innings of genetic testing. However, in contrast to what Mika said, testing of non-Foundation Medicine companies is alive and well, and ramping. Quest Diagnostics, in particular, is beefing up its focus on this sector and companion diagnostics are being developed by biopharma. As Foundation Medicine is proving, and they do have the best end-to-end platform for tissue based tests, the information that is being garnered from the testing is changing cancer care. FYI, Biocept (NASDAQ: BIOC) is very well positioned for lipid based testing, which will be a huge area to complement tissue based tests as FMI indicated on their quarterly call. In any case, each of the genetic testing firms are dealing with their own reimbursement issues...but so far, reimbursement has been reasonable, with most genetic tests ranging from $2,500-$3,5000. CLRX is clearly not making much money per test. More later...
On yesterday's earnings call, Foundation Medicine (which had a great quarter) pointed to liquid biopsies as one key area that they are looking to expand into. As you may or may not know, Foundation Medicine has a focus on providing actionable genetic information for cancer therapy using tissue diagnosis. With Biocept being a leader in the liquid biopsy field, I would look for a potential partnership with Foundation Medicine going forward. It's a natural fit and could provide dramatic benefit for both firms. And, as Biocept's managaement pointed out on their last quarter's earnings call, they are keenly aware of Foundation Medicine and believe the products & services of both companies are highly complementary.
Adding significantly to positions in both firms.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
What a joke! And the FED says small-cap biotech is overvalued. Last time I checked, the FED didn't run a biotech company, own a biotech hedge fund, or have biotech analysts on staff. The FED should stick to Economics and HTBX management should spend some time educating the biotech hedge funds about their platform technology...clearly the message by the HTBX investment bankers didn't do the job.
You couldn't be more wrong. I hope you short. FMI is signficantly undervalued. The company is changing the entire landscape of the cancer patient dynamic. It's software / testing service platform changes patient care in nearly 1/3 of all cancer patients...that is a staggering number at this early stage in patient specific care. As testing becomes more dynamic, this number is only going to grow. Do you realize how many billions of dollars FMI's platform will save once it becomes first-line defense! FMI is discussing this very issue with regulators.
If it executes, FMI will be a 100-bagger.
This week's news that fish oil helps slow Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease and the past few weeks news that Triglycerides play a vital role in Heart Disease bodes extremely well for the inherent value of Vascepa and its potential to become a wonder drug. Given it's very strong clinical data, enhanced market opportunity, unique product offering, and tiny market capitalization, look for big pharma to buyout AMRN in the next few months or sooner...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Look for a big move up in the next 1-2 months as cardiologists digest last week's news of the 40% lower risk by reducing triglycerides, a direct improvement seen from taking Vascepta. AMRN will see $2 shortly and finish 2014 around $5. Usually takes a few weeks for medical news to get around because not all physicians stay abreast of the latest medical news (sad, but true)....so, scripts numbers will rise as the news changes how cardiologists treat patients. In the hands of big pharma, Vascepta would do extremely well. Expect a takeout.
Another press release of so-called positive news...a new patent, another cohort of its lead cancer drug, more uses for its new antibiotic, etc., etc., etc.
CTIX goes nowhere. Market cap of $180 million despite three potential blockbuster drugs in development. Doesn't make much sense does it? Nope. And, that should raise a red flag. The market doesn't care about any of these types of press releases. The market wants to know whether any of these drugs work. And, so far, we don't know much of anything. Sure, Kevatrin is in its 8th cohort and is increasing its dosage...but there are plenty of things that could do that...like a concoction of vitamins. The real and only question the market cares about is whether Kevatrin (and the other two drugs in the pipeline for that matter) is creating any statistically significant response rates among its patients. Until that time, all of this type of stuff is management fluff.
And, let's also keep in mind that if Kevatrin was really the so-called magic bullet...and patients had amazing response rates, you can bet that somebody would hear about it before everyone else....somebody would buy a massive amount of this stock or the options. So, watch the volume...there will be a big pick-up in volume the day before great results are announced, if any, as the smart money will hear about the amazing recovery of John Smith from the hospital bed in Dana Farber and get into the stock before the press release carrying the information to the public. That's how things work.
Ignore Ctixers fluff too...just watch the CTIX price and volume.
This stock is trading like both Einhorn and Loeb bailed...that's the problem with waiting for quarterly filings...we just don't know. But, the action is HORRIBLE. Need more insider buying ASAP!
Piper loved QURE on April 2nd and now the stock has been destroyed. I hate analysts who have no balls to re-iterate their BUY recommendations. This is a GIFT!
U.S.-listed shares of Netherlands-based pharmaceutical company Uniqure (QURE) are rising after Baxter International (BAX) acquired Chatham Therapeutics, which is developing gene therapy treatments intended for patients with hemophilia. WHAT'S NEW: Baxter agreed to acquire all of Chatham’s outstanding membership interests and as a result will acquire Chatham’s developmental gene therapy programs directed toward the development and commercialization of treatments for hemophilia. Under the terms of the agreement, Baxter will make an initial payment of $70M to acquire all of the outstanding membership interests of Chatham and may make additional payments in the future. Baxter will continue the ongoing Phase I/II open-label clinical trial to assess the safety and optimal dosing schedule of hemophilia treatment BAX 335. ANALYST REACTION: Research firm Piper Jaffray said the Baxter acquisition has a positive read-through for Uniqure. The deal validates other hemophilia gene therapy programs in development, most notably Uniqure's, according to the firm. Analyst Joshua Schimmer wrote that there are other gene therapy programs for hemophilia in development beside Uniqure's and Baxter's, but he believes Uniqure has an advantage since it will be important to be among the first to market. The analyst also said that the market is large enough to accommodate more than one gene therapy option. Piper reiterated its Overweight rating and $35 price target on Uniqure. OTHERS TO WATCH: Other companies noted by Piper as currently offering hemophilia treatments or working on hemophilia therapies include Pfizer (PFE), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Biogen (BIIB), Sangamo (SGMO) and BioMarin (BMRN). PRICE ACTION: During late morning trading, shares of Uniqure rose 77c or 4.92% to $16.43, while Baxter slid 33c, or 0.45%, to $73.
ISIS did perfectly well without Novatis when it left it's partnership back in 2000. Novartis hasn't been a big RNAi player in over 14 years. Given that it is in cost cutting mode, this announcement is no surprise. I would buy ISIS, ROSG, and TKMR on this news as all are down a lot.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Not sure why anyone thinks tomorrow's earnings are going to be a huge blowout. It will be a nice report, but anyone thinking of a big number or super guidance is foolish. I'm long the stock because of the patents and future deals, including the TSA adopting the company's technology at airports. It is CRAZY to me that the TSA has not done this already. In fact, it's negligent, as everyone knows the people who check IDs do not know what's real and what's fake. IDN can cover all domestic passengers with its driver's license ID technology, and has fingerprint ID technology as well. If the TSA would include the Passport database (that everyone goes through at Customs), with IDN's drivers's license technology and fingerprint technology, it would capture 99% of all criminal, illegal and terrorist activities. This will happen. And, the increase in the sales force will not only help to serve the TSA business, but will be able to provide similar security across Corporate America in terms of access. The patent position puts IDN in prime position for any competing derivatives given how broad some of the patents are.
Even after the run-up of the past few days, the stock is significantly undervalued given the long-term prospects.
IDRA should issue a press release and crush this research outfit...file a lawsuit and shut them down for good. Front-running short-outfits should be illegal!
Just short-selling outfits who have no freakin' idea what they are writing about. Suggest buying all the dips of all the companies that these three outfits short...you will make a fortune!
You can run relative value analysis across the board in biotech and find single agent companies valued 2-3x higher and platform companies valued 5-10x higher, all at similar stages of product development as CTIX. The reason why CTIX is not valued much higher right now is clearly due to the lack of confidence in the CTIX management team led by Ehrlich and Menon. Both men at CTIX have been victims of negative press...perhaps justified, perhaps not...discussing their backgrounds. At the end of the day, Wall Street backs management teams...especially in biotech...where leadership needs a track record of enhancing shareholder value by either taking products to market and through exit upon a sale to a larger bio/pharma company.
Despite a promising blockbuster cancer drug in development, a potential strong psoriasis drug in development, and an antiobiotic platform recently acquired and re-ignited in several clinical trials (note the CDC's superbug warning yesterday), CTIX continues to hover around $200 million.
So, for those of us who think the pipeline is worth a hell of a lot more, but are wary of investing deeper with this management team, why should we load up right now on CTIX? Tell us why you are extremely confident and comfortable with Ehrlich and Menon running the CTIX ship...because, at the end of the day, that's who we are trusting our funds with.
Please respond if you own a big stake in CTIX.
CANN doesn't sell pot, they just help pot growers get real estate space and provide business advise. They are a real estate broker / consultant. There will be THOUSANDS of competing real estate brokers helping pot growers. In fact, every single real estate broker across the nation will be a competitor, just like any other business.
This business model is a joke. There are ZERO barriers to entry.
Honestly, I'm not short or long. But, just because one guy on CNBC mentions the stock doesn't mean it's a good buy. When you're buying, he's selling.
They will be huge once marketing really gets going...works in 15 minutes...quicker and more effective than Viagra, faster than Cialis and Levitra.
Stendra = best drug for ED
Qsymai = best drug for Weight Loss
Market cap = $700 million
SUPER STRONG BUY