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Volcano Corporation (VOLC) Message Board

green_side_up 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 24, 2014 4:13 AM Member since: Nov 2, 2011
  • Reply to

    The Real Value of Intrexon

    by theceprogrammer Sep 23, 2014 7:19 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Sep 24, 2014 4:13 AM Flag

    This is just the equity in a portion of the ECC doesn't take into account the cash flow from those deals (they are equity + cash flow deals), nor the ECC value from J&J, Sanofi, Rentokil, Genopaver, etc., or any future ECC deals, nor the energy business, and any other deal / technology developments, etc.

    The current equity value of these ECCs are priced significantly below their potential valuation if the technology works as planned.

    If you are multiplying by 2 to take into account the cash flow of each deal, as similar to the equity value, I'm not sure we have enough evidence to know if that is correct. And, then, using a 1.5 multiple - not sure that is a justifiable valuation metric based on market cap, which is what you're using. I've only seen that as a sales multiple.

    Let's put it this way, XON has a $2 billion valuation. That pales in comparison to what valuation will be in the future even if a couple of these ECC projects work out.

  • While longs who own the stock much higher are hurting right now, the rich are ready to chomp at the opportunity to add shares of XON on the cheap. This is how the rich get richer...they always have cash on the side to pounce on such opportunities. In a market tape that IS NOT rewarding companies like XON, whose earnings are a few years out, owning XON is opportunity cost of capital. When you have other stocks trending up, and pressure to meet index performance, even some hedge funds will sell, in order to buy what's working. And, XON is not working. Hence the selling pressure, despite an revenue and earnings beat last quarter, despite XON's career board blowing up with new positions for hire across the board, despite an ECC with Sanofi's chemical subsidiary.

    The rich get richer because they have cash and time on their side. That's the lesson to learn here for all of us trying to become rich. So, don't panic here if you are long. XON has game-changing technology. Sanofi thinks so, Johnson & Johnson thinks so, and a plethora of other partners think so...not to mention the enormous opportunity XON is pursuing using natural gas as a feedstock to develop a myriad of products. Oh, and management / insiders own a ton of stock and have been adding to positions.

  • green_side_up green_side_up Sep 4, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    Trades at 10x EV/EBITDA, which seems appropriate, if not slightly undervalued given CTLTs unique market position, diversity, and proprietary technologies. A lot of long-term catalysts here given more biotech success, personalized medicine driving more future drugs, and new product developments. Likely to see nice, steady growth in EBITDA, but only single digit top-line growth. Management indicated use of greenshoe to pay down debt and then re-invest operating cash flow into the business given growth prospects. This is a very nice business, whose stock should climb slowly over time with EBITDA growth...just hard to see big multiple expansion without additional catalysts or acquisitions.

  • One company is a novelty application, the other company will change the world.

    Relative values are all messed up on Wall Street right now.

    Keep loading up on this sell-off.

  • FMI is building a VERY strong position amongs oncologists, will have 30,000 test results in their database by year-end, and has the Interactive Cancer Explorer which comes with the reporting tool, social engagement between oncologists, etc. Plus, as ILMN's CEO said, FMI's tests can touch the rare cancer diseases that ILMN is not initially targeting with their initiative. So, if you're ILMN, given your stock price / valuation, why not acquire FMI, or at least partner with them for rare diseases and access to oncologists?

    Certainly seems that FMI is EXTREMELY well positioned...and EXTREMELY undervalued.

  • Too bad...

    But, I'm certainly accumulating shares here.

    Funny how SnapChat is worth $10 billion for photos that go away, and Intrexon is worth $2 billion for technology that will change the world.

    Relative value? Hell, yes.

  • It seems like their traders never support their client's stock and their research never moves their underwritten stocks. Effectively, the Street ignores Aegis.

    The valuation here is ridiculous at $9 million of Enterprise Value. Liquid biopsy is the future of ongoing cancer care and BIOC has a better mousetrap for capturing circulating cancer cells than J&J.

    Nobody understands this company's technology. Aegis certainly doesn't, otherwise they would be pounding the table on this opportunity.

    Management should hire a different banker ASAP.

    Accumulating shares on these low volume many impatient shareholders, as they dump BIOC to go buy AAPL and other stocks hitting new highs.

    Thank you very much.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • While ILMN stock is up right now, and the initiative with big pharma sounds good, ILMN investors really need to now question ILMN's business model and market positioning.

    Flatley's new initiative to create one test for drug development / genetic testing will NO DOUBT alienate all of its genetic testing customers who are creating single test cancer arrays. ILMN's DNA technology is an increasing commodity - with significant competition / new technologies on the horizon - and Flateley is trying to re-position ILMN downstream to compete downstream with its client base. In doing so, expect a major backlash by single-test array customers, such as Myriad Genetics and Genomic Health, who suddenly find their market positioning under major threat by its supplier ILMN.

    You could see a massive fall-off of product sales due to this.

    Take profits now!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Thank you very much...lots of impatient investors

  • Reply to


    by eqivacation Aug 14, 2014 5:15 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Aug 14, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    CLRX will need to do another capital raise next quarter. They have less than two quarters of cash left if they really skim expenses, as they are burning about $1.2 million per quarter. I was only able to listen to part of the conference call, up to the point where Mika said revenue was challenging (only $64,000 in the quarter is not good). I will listen to the rest of the call and Q&A tonight and have some additional comments.

    On an important note, CLRX did improve the Board and the management team significantly with their two recent additions. This is vital, as Mika certainly does not have a good track record given his poor performance running Tegal. He needs all the help he can get, and to his credit, CLRX added a COO with strong sector experience and a Board Member with an outstanding track record.

    The operating leverage in the CLRX business remains large, given the $5 million annual cost to break-even, not including expansion costs for other business lines. The customer base continues to improve, and it is true, that we are in the early innings of genetic testing. However, in contrast to what Mika said, testing of non-Foundation Medicine companies is alive and well, and ramping. Quest Diagnostics, in particular, is beefing up its focus on this sector and companion diagnostics are being developed by biopharma. As Foundation Medicine is proving, and they do have the best end-to-end platform for tissue based tests, the information that is being garnered from the testing is changing cancer care. FYI, Biocept (NASDAQ: BIOC) is very well positioned for lipid based testing, which will be a huge area to complement tissue based tests as FMI indicated on their quarterly call. In any case, each of the genetic testing firms are dealing with their own reimbursement issues...but so far, reimbursement has been reasonable, with most genetic tests ranging from $2,500-$3,5000. CLRX is clearly not making much money per test. More later...

  • green_side_up by green_side_up Aug 13, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    OPWR developing into a really strong long-term story. Listen to the conference call.

    Adding to long position on dips

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • On yesterday's earnings call, Foundation Medicine (which had a great quarter) pointed to liquid biopsies as one key area that they are looking to expand into. As you may or may not know, Foundation Medicine has a focus on providing actionable genetic information for cancer therapy using tissue diagnosis. With Biocept being a leader in the liquid biopsy field, I would look for a potential partnership with Foundation Medicine going forward. It's a natural fit and could provide dramatic benefit for both firms. And, as Biocept's managaement pointed out on their last quarter's earnings call, they are keenly aware of Foundation Medicine and believe the products & services of both companies are highly complementary.

    Adding significantly to positions in both firms.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • What a joke! And the FED says small-cap biotech is overvalued. Last time I checked, the FED didn't run a biotech company, own a biotech hedge fund, or have biotech analysts on staff. The FED should stick to Economics and HTBX management should spend some time educating the biotech hedge funds about their platform technology...clearly the message by the HTBX investment bankers didn't do the job.

  • Reply to

    Most overvalued biotech company

    by aecooter33 Jul 14, 2014 1:21 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Jul 25, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    You couldn't be more wrong. I hope you short. FMI is signficantly undervalued. The company is changing the entire landscape of the cancer patient dynamic. It's software / testing service platform changes patient care in nearly 1/3 of all cancer patients...that is a staggering number at this early stage in patient specific care. As testing becomes more dynamic, this number is only going to grow. Do you realize how many billions of dollars FMI's platform will save once it becomes first-line defense! FMI is discussing this very issue with regulators.

    If it executes, FMI will be a 100-bagger.

  • This week's news that fish oil helps slow Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease and the past few weeks news that Triglycerides play a vital role in Heart Disease bodes extremely well for the inherent value of Vascepa and its potential to become a wonder drug. Given it's very strong clinical data, enhanced market opportunity, unique product offering, and tiny market capitalization, look for big pharma to buyout AMRN in the next few months or sooner...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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