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Volcano Corporation (VOLC) Message Board

green_side_up 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 17, 2014 5:08 PM Member since: Nov 2, 2011
  • green_side_up green_side_up Nov 17, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

    Lee...you are funny. CBST's EV is $5.5 billion...have fun with your CTIX dilution.

  • green_side_up green_side_up Nov 17, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    The point is that CBST could have acquired CTIX instead

  • Cubist Pharmaceuticals is investing significantly in global antibiotic R&D and is focusing its late-stage pipeline on addressing serious and potentially life-threatening healthcare-acquired bacterial infections. To fight the global battle against antibiotic resistance and to support the potential launch of two new antibiotics in Europe in 2015, Cubist is expanding its presence in Europe and has recently begun operations in the UK. Cubist expects to invest approximately $400M in 2014 on antibacterial R&D and hopes to deliver at least four new antibiotics in support of the Infectious Diseases Society of America goal of 10 new antibiotics by 2020.

    Conclusion: CBST sees zero value in the CTIX antibiotic drug

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Where's the Secondary?

    by eqivacation Nov 13, 2014 7:23 AM
    green_side_up green_side_up Nov 14, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    Well, they are burning through $1 million per quarter and have only $1 million left, so some type of financing has to be imminent. But, there has been some progress in the business. Yet, I would wait until there's more clarity on financing before buying the stock.

  • Nice report.

    FYI, for those who don't know how Wall Street works, on the earnings, you have to add back the non-cash expenses.

  • Reply to

    AccessWire

    by green_side_up Nov 12, 2014 12:16 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Nov 12, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    Whenever I see these articles, I try to keep in mind Adam Feuerstein's articles on GALE and their use of The DreamTeam Group to pump up their stock. Like I said, just be careful.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • green_side_up by green_side_up Nov 12, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    Don't you love when micro and small cap companies pay a 3rd party some type of compensation to issue press releases to tout their developments. Such a conflict of interest.

    Leo is likely trying to increase the stock price to try to limit the dilution from the shelf registration.

    The data should speak for itself.

    Buyer beware.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Latest pr

    by fudruckker Nov 11, 2014 8:08 AM
    green_side_up green_side_up Nov 11, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    "After discussion with FDA later this year, Cellceutix plans to disclose additional information regarding the Phase 2b trial results."

    Why does CTIX need to discuss with the FDA before disclosing Phase 2b trial details?

    Seems strange to me and sounds like a potential Red Flag

  • Reply to

    There is no way to sugercoat this--

    by cmblanch1 Nov 5, 2014 12:34 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Nov 7, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    Why wouldn't you wait until more data comes out on any of the three major drugs before announcing a shelf offering? Take Regulus (RGLS), they announced a follow-on offering, at $18-$20 after releasing strong Hepatitis-C data for their RNA drug. The stock was trading at $7-$8 before the announcement. CTIX did not move on the Phase 2b data for Brilacidin. They clearly need the funds to run these 5 clinical trials and don't want to wait for what could be better received news - and thus, we have far greater dilution for existing shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Stock is crashing

    by lee1220neill Nov 4, 2014 2:32 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Nov 7, 2014 12:18 AM Flag

    Frank, you maybe 100% correct.

  • Reply to

    Stock is crashing

    by lee1220neill Nov 4, 2014 2:32 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Nov 6, 2014 7:19 PM Flag

    Here's a good example of a Phase 2b trial for the exact same ABSSSI indication done in December 2011 by Melinta Therapeutics comparing their drug to vancomycin. See link:

    http://melinta.com/dev/topic16.php

    Here's the kay point: "Of note, for the primary endpoint of Investigators’ Global Assessment of Cure, delafloxacin demonstrated statistical superiority in comparison to vancomycin (95% Confidence Interval -30.3%, -2.3%; p=0.031)."

    The low p-value gives conviction to the comparison data, something that CTIX did not provide in its press release, but I think will be disclosed in April 2015.

    By the way, this drug, as seen in the link below, just entered Phase 3 trials in May 2014, showing you how long it can take to develop drugs. (Note, I don't know the history of this company in terms of financing and other pipeline priorities or any issues with Phase 3 protocol. It's just an example)

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/idUSnGNX8f6Dd4+1c4+GNW20140505

  • Reply to

    Stock is crashing

    by lee1220neill Nov 4, 2014 2:32 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Nov 6, 2014 4:01 PM Flag

    Cellceutix is preparing a poster on the completed Phase 2b clinical trial for presentation at the 25th European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, which will be held from April 25 - 28, 2015 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

    Lee - stop the badgering...being mean is bad karma, it's why you're losing your profits.

  • Reply to

    Stock is crashing

    by lee1220neill Nov 4, 2014 2:32 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Nov 6, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    Frank, yes out of CTIX on the lack of data, constant fluff PRs, expected dilution for the 5 clinical trials, OTC listing, no partnerships, etc. I'm not in PRTK, but I saw the deal and the involvement of Baupost, which made a lot of money on Idenix and Theravance. They are extremely diligent and one of the best known value investors ever, so I looked into PRTK further and saw their antibiotic pipeline and the treatment indications which overlapped with Brilacidin. Let's put it this way, it would surprise me if Baupost would invest in PRTK if Brilacidin was the home run that Leo says it is. The reaction of the stock market back when the exact same PR was put out by PolyMedix sent the stock down. They were looking to raise funds back then, and if the data was truly as robust as they made it out to be (which Leo basically reiterated in his PR), the PolyMedix stock would have gone up significantly and they would still be in business, or they would have been bought out. They went bankrupt and nobody bid on the assets. Not CBST, not CEMP, not TTPH, not DRTX...nobody. Little CTIX won the assets for a few million dollars. DID NOT ADD UP. Fierce Biotech said at the time of the Phase 2 data that Wall Street needed more clarity on the p-value data, and when Leo did not disclose any trial details and said we'd have to wait until April 2015, it sent up another red flag. Then, I saw the upgrades to CBST, CEMP, TTPH, and PRTK by Wall Street analysts and the fact that CTIX hasn't tried to uplist to get some analyst coverage along with the implied help with stock distribution on a capital raise, I got even more bearish as I got very concerned about higher than necessary dilution. Plus, if the Brilacidin data was great, why wouldn't you release it so your stock would rally and the dilution be lower. It wasn't shareholder friendly to keep the p-value data hidden, unless it wasn't robust, which I inferred it's not likely to be from all of the above.

    Hope that helps

  • Reply to

    Stock is crashing

    by lee1220neill Nov 4, 2014 2:32 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Nov 4, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    Here's the thing Lee...IF the data on Brac was really that compelling this stock would have gone up 3-5x on the news. I owed CTIX and sold the stock when the p-value data was NOT made available for a Phase 2 trial...and was not going to be made available until April...which is an eternity in drug development circles. Given all the fluffy PRs produced over the years by Leo, and the fact that PolyMedix stock sold off on the same news and nobody bid on the assets other than CTIX, the Red Flag was there...assuming I stayed unemotional. Add in the expected dilution from the Shelf offering and now a well-funded competitor in PRTK (with a world famous value investor to boot), it was just the recipe for lower prices for the stock.

  • green_side_up green_side_up Nov 3, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    So are a couple hundred other drugs...

    https://www.dana-farber.org/research/clinical-trials.aspx

  • green_side_up green_side_up Nov 3, 2014 6:11 PM Flag

    Congrats

  • green_side_up green_side_up Nov 3, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    lee harvey...thanks for the mature response! I have followed CTIX for the past three years, so I know the company very well. The real question is whether you know do?

  • So, four antibiotic companies not named CTIX saw initiations today...

    CBST, CEMP and AKAO by SunTrust and PRTK by Ladenburg

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • green_side_up green_side_up Oct 31, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    look harder

  • Backed by new investors, including The Baupost Group, run by investor guru Seth Klarmin. PRTK's technology focuses on drug resistance and their lead candidate is for ABSSI heading to Phase 3 trials. So, likely more competition for CTIX's new wonder drug antibiotic (although, remember, we won't see Phase 2 trial data until April 2015).

    Let's see if CTIX can get some real institutional capital that they will need to run these 5 multi-site, blinded trials. That's highly unlikely to be enough capital if these trials are run correctly. No institutional capital is knocking on the CTIX door, nor are any large bio/pharma partners, so it will be interesting to see what happens with this shelf filing. No up-listing either, which would allow institutions to purchase the stock and provide a natural distribution for new shares...most are restricted from buying OTC shares.

    Good news:, at least CTIX has a new COO who is willing to follow the Leo script of producing super excited press releases. Yeah!

    No reason to buy shares,

    Sentiment: Hold

VOLC
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