The problem is the Phase 2 data for BRIL was releasedj prior to bankruptcy, so the news was in the public domain already. I just don't see the team at CBST not seeing this data. There are not that many antibiotic drugs in development (one of the problems, especially with drug resistance on the rise). It just seems extraordinarily odd to me. Cancer drug development is an entire different ball of wax...there are hundreds of companies in that field, but a relatively small number of antibiotic / vaccine companies...especially public ones.
On the point, of risk on an acquisition, the purchase price of the PolyMedix assets were very low...so not much dollars at risk. And, even while public, the company's stock did not rally on the exact same Phase 2 data news that CTIX just released - the press releases are almost identical - you wonder if CTIX did any real work or just waited a few months to re-iterate the same data.
Let's put it this way, if you are being objective, it's hard to trust that this situation passes the smell test.
That is the stupidest response ever and Leo has a fiduciary duty to disclose the data. The likelihood is the data has issues.
This is why Leo sucks...we have no trial statistics...CTIX says the drug met the primary endpoint but they don't provide a P-Value for statistical significance. That is unacceptable. Shareholders should DEMAND that info and not have to wait until late April 2015 to get details. I wouldn't be surprised if Adam Feurestein of The Street comes up with an article about the lack of data in the Press Release.
I'm long 5,000 shares and want to buy more, but without statistical data, I struggle to have any confidence in CTIX leadership.
...solution from tissue capture, cancer identification, cancer treatment and cancer monitoring. The question will be what will FMI do in this liquid biopsy market...can they create a comprehensive liquid biopsy test like it has in the tissue market, or will it develop a multitude of tests. We don't know a lot about the strategy, but if FMI can somehow aggregate the liquid biopsy testing data along with its tissue biopsy data, to provide a comprehensive, end-to-end database of cancer testing data...that could be the Holy Grail.
I think it can become a $5 Billion company with its current system / platform as more physicians / oncology groups ramp their use. The Big Data they are aggregating from all of these tests will become extremely valuable and will change the standard of care. Soon, FoundationOne will be used as a first line defense towards cancer treatment and drug development. The reimbursement of Priority Health is the first step towards this. The key differential is that unlike single-assay firms like, FMI has developed a complete picture of cancer genomics from the tissue. A single assay DOES NOT provide a complete picture of what is going on with the patient. Sure, that particular gene may be enough to provide good treatment, but why run the risk that you are missing something. A person's cancer tissue may show gene alteration or over expression for more than what that single assay tests for. Hence, FMI is the best positioned diagnostic firm in the industry...now it needs to execute and expand its testing, drug development and utilization of its platform.
To increase the valuation beyond the above, FMI needs to expand into liquid biopsy. And, I would expect FMI to announce its game plan / initiative into the liquid biopsy market soon, as it has discussed this market in presentations. Tissue-based testing itself is great if you can remove tissue, but its not good for those cases where getting to the cancer tissue is hard, and it is not good in terms of monitoring the cancer post surgery or treatment. Using sophisticated capture technology, some firms, like Biocept (BIOC), are already working with tissue-based companies to capture tissue cancer biomarkers in the blood. BIOC announced a deal with Rosetta Genomics (ROSG) which develops single-based tissue tests in the microRNA field. Other tissue-based testing firms will follow, whether they sign deals with BIOC or other liquid biopsy firms...this is inevitable. Testing firms will want to provide an end-to-end...
XON continues to be technically very weak. The one strong day we saw in the market sell-off has proven to be an anomaly and another opportunity for the shorts to add to positions. Massive short interest is in full control as they view any justification of market cap to be dependent on earnings that could be years away. Despite an extremely impressive of portfolio assets and a limitless future pipeline, the Shorts are willing to press. The chart on XON is UGLY...draw a line diagonally right from the top of the post-IPO high and XON is going to re-test recent lows barring any material news or significant additional insider / institutional buying.
Today's action is quite Bearish.
I think the economics are not what everyone thinks they will be. No royalty rate is disclosed in the 10-K
Do any of you LONGS really know?
How much is the license fee?
Is there any back-end economics tied to volume that goes to IBIO or does all / most of the revenue go to Caliber?
No follow-through yet today....chart still diagonally negative going back to post IPO high. Need a move up on big volume and a real break of this downtrend...and then XON will move significantly given the HUGE short interest...but right now, the shorts are still in control, even though XON has had good relative outperformance in the past couple of days.
Bill Miller had a chance to lay out the bullish case and came across as an idiot. Worst case lose 1/2 your money, bet on CEO. Is this really his due diligence effort? I mean, what a wasted opportunity to explain what XON is really doing. Talk about a massive blunder. Nice reaction today to his thesis. I'm #$%$ at him. Herb Greenberg of CNBC did a better job. Dan Loeb did a night-and-day better job. Miller sounded uneducated. Sure hope he is more eloquent going forward.
Shorts seem to be outmuscling Kirk, MIller and Loeb...down 50% from post-IPO high to just above IPO price.
Seems like nobody likes XON on huge market up days in 2014. All that fund money going into companies leveraged to the global economy, expecting the FED to keep interest rates low. The smart money is going to add on these dips...they know the incredible upside of XON. The stock chart looks awful...diagonally down from the post IPO peak...as the shorts have taken advantage of the lack of earnings and the lack of cross-the-board buyers. However, with underlying investors like Dan Loeb and Bill Miller, along with Kirk's fund, any significant news, such as expansion of the J&J partnership, another big company partnership or a material acquisitition, should send XON gapping higher. ECC news with small firms like Histogenics are nice...as XON builds a portfolio of equity owned, development stage partnerships...but they are unlikely to material move the stock until developments from any of these portfolio firms announce news related to XON's technology.
The point of this list was to get the correct ownership of the number of shares of XON's ECC partners, as there is usually (though not always) an equity component to these deals...especially with the smaller cap companies. My point was that HALO is not an ECC partner of XON's. And, the fact that Kirk's fund owns the HALO shares has zero bearing on the valuation of XON. So, i was telling theceprogrammer to review his work.
"The progress achieved under our initial ECC led to this expansion of our combined efforts."
That's clearly an endorsement of XON's technology platform.
Amazing how this stock has been sold off. Funds have only been interested in large cap, dividend stocks, and not story stocks like XON with positive EPS several years out.
Long-term investors have to take advantage of these opportunities. XON is back to the IPO range despite a lot of positive developments, including the energy business, new ECC's, and continued momentum in existing ECC partner development.
If even ONE of the ECC deals works out, it justifies the current valuation.
Guys like Dan Loeb and Bill Miller, two of the best investors of the past 25 years, own stock and are very bullish long-term. They will be adding to positions on any further weakness.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Don't think your shares / stocks are correct here. For example, I think Kirk's fund owns HALO, not Intrexon. Maybe review this again via XON's public filings.
This is just the equity in a portion of the ECC deals....it doesn't take into account the cash flow from those deals (they are equity + cash flow deals), nor the ECC value from J&J, Sanofi, Rentokil, Genopaver, etc., or any future ECC deals, nor the energy business, and any other deal / technology developments, etc.
The current equity value of these ECCs are priced significantly below their potential valuation if the technology works as planned.
If you are multiplying by 2 to take into account the cash flow of each deal, as similar to the equity value, I'm not sure we have enough evidence to know if that is correct. And, then, using a 1.5 multiple - not sure that is a justifiable valuation metric based on market cap, which is what you're using. I've only seen that as a sales multiple.
Let's put it this way, XON has a $2 billion valuation. That pales in comparison to what valuation will be in the future even if a couple of these ECC projects work out.
While longs who own the stock much higher are hurting right now, the rich are ready to chomp at the opportunity to add shares of XON on the cheap. This is how the rich get richer...they always have cash on the side to pounce on such opportunities. In a market tape that IS NOT rewarding companies like XON, whose earnings are a few years out, owning XON is opportunity cost of capital. When you have other stocks trending up, and pressure to meet index performance, even some hedge funds will sell, in order to buy what's working. And, XON is not working. Hence the selling pressure, despite an revenue and earnings beat last quarter, despite XON's career board blowing up with new positions for hire across the board, despite an ECC with Sanofi's chemical subsidiary.
The rich get richer because they have cash and time on their side. That's the lesson to learn here for all of us trying to become rich. So, don't panic here if you are long. XON has game-changing technology. Sanofi thinks so, Johnson & Johnson thinks so, and a plethora of other partners think so...not to mention the enormous opportunity XON is pursuing using natural gas as a feedstock to develop a myriad of products. Oh, and management / insiders own a ton of stock and have been adding to positions.
Trades at 10x EV/EBITDA, which seems appropriate, if not slightly undervalued given CTLTs unique market position, diversity, and proprietary technologies. A lot of long-term catalysts here given more biotech success, personalized medicine driving more future drugs, and new product developments. Likely to see nice, steady growth in EBITDA, but only single digit top-line growth. Management indicated use of greenshoe to pay down debt and then re-invest operating cash flow into the business given growth prospects. This is a very nice business, whose stock should climb slowly over time with EBITDA growth...just hard to see big multiple expansion without additional catalysts or acquisitions.