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Red Hat, Inc. Message Board

green_side_up 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2014 10:03 AM Member since: Nov 2, 2011
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  • This week's news that fish oil helps slow Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease and the past few weeks news that Triglycerides play a vital role in Heart Disease bodes extremely well for the inherent value of Vascepa and its potential to become a wonder drug. Given it's very strong clinical data, enhanced market opportunity, unique product offering, and tiny market capitalization, look for big pharma to buyout AMRN in the next few months or sooner...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • What a joke! And the FED says small-cap biotech is overvalued. Last time I checked, the FED didn't run a biotech company, own a biotech hedge fund, or have biotech analysts on staff. The FED should stick to Economics and HTBX management should spend some time educating the biotech hedge funds about their platform technology...clearly the message by the HTBX investment bankers didn't do the job.

  • While ILMN stock is up right now, and the initiative with big pharma sounds good, ILMN investors really need to now question ILMN's business model and market positioning.

    Flatley's new initiative to create one test for drug development / genetic testing will NO DOUBT alienate all of its genetic testing customers who are creating single test cancer arrays. ILMN's DNA technology is an increasing commodity - with significant competition / new technologies on the horizon - and Flateley is trying to re-position ILMN downstream to compete downstream with its client base. In doing so, expect a major backlash by single-test array customers, such as Myriad Genetics and Genomic Health, who suddenly find their market positioning under major threat by its supplier ILMN.

    You could see a massive fall-off of product sales due to this.

    Take profits now!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • green_side_up by green_side_up Jun 17, 2014 3:37 AM Flag

    Another press release of so-called positive news...a new patent, another cohort of its lead cancer drug, more uses for its new antibiotic, etc., etc., etc.

    CTIX goes nowhere. Market cap of $180 million despite three potential blockbuster drugs in development. Doesn't make much sense does it? Nope. And, that should raise a red flag. The market doesn't care about any of these types of press releases. The market wants to know whether any of these drugs work. And, so far, we don't know much of anything. Sure, Kevatrin is in its 8th cohort and is increasing its dosage...but there are plenty of things that could do a concoction of vitamins. The real and only question the market cares about is whether Kevatrin (and the other two drugs in the pipeline for that matter) is creating any statistically significant response rates among its patients. Until that time, all of this type of stuff is management fluff.

    And, let's also keep in mind that if Kevatrin was really the so-called magic bullet...and patients had amazing response rates, you can bet that somebody would hear about it before everyone else....somebody would buy a massive amount of this stock or the options. So, watch the volume...there will be a big pick-up in volume the day before great results are announced, if any, as the smart money will hear about the amazing recovery of John Smith from the hospital bed in Dana Farber and get into the stock before the press release carrying the information to the public. That's how things work.

    Ignore Ctixers fluff too...just watch the CTIX price and volume.

  • Thank you very much...lots of impatient investors

  • green_side_up by green_side_up Aug 13, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    OPWR developing into a really strong long-term story. Listen to the conference call.

    Adding to long position on dips

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Most overvalued biotech company

    by aecooter33 Jul 14, 2014 1:21 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Jul 25, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    You couldn't be more wrong. I hope you short. FMI is signficantly undervalued. The company is changing the entire landscape of the cancer patient dynamic. It's software / testing service platform changes patient care in nearly 1/3 of all cancer patients...that is a staggering number at this early stage in patient specific care. As testing becomes more dynamic, this number is only going to grow. Do you realize how many billions of dollars FMI's platform will save once it becomes first-line defense! FMI is discussing this very issue with regulators.

    If it executes, FMI will be a 100-bagger.

  • green_side_up green_side_up Jun 27, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    Look for a big move up in the next 1-2 months as cardiologists digest last week's news of the 40% lower risk by reducing triglycerides, a direct improvement seen from taking Vascepta. AMRN will see $2 shortly and finish 2014 around $5. Usually takes a few weeks for medical news to get around because not all physicians stay abreast of the latest medical news (sad, but true), scripts numbers will rise as the news changes how cardiologists treat patients. In the hands of big pharma, Vascepta would do extremely well. Expect a takeout.

  • On yesterday's earnings call, Foundation Medicine (which had a great quarter) pointed to liquid biopsies as one key area that they are looking to expand into. As you may or may not know, Foundation Medicine has a focus on providing actionable genetic information for cancer therapy using tissue diagnosis. With Biocept being a leader in the liquid biopsy field, I would look for a potential partnership with Foundation Medicine going forward. It's a natural fit and could provide dramatic benefit for both firms. And, as Biocept's managaement pointed out on their last quarter's earnings call, they are keenly aware of Foundation Medicine and believe the products & services of both companies are highly complementary.

    Adding significantly to positions in both firms.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by eqivacation Aug 14, 2014 5:15 PM
    green_side_up green_side_up Aug 14, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    CLRX will need to do another capital raise next quarter. They have less than two quarters of cash left if they really skim expenses, as they are burning about $1.2 million per quarter. I was only able to listen to part of the conference call, up to the point where Mika said revenue was challenging (only $64,000 in the quarter is not good). I will listen to the rest of the call and Q&A tonight and have some additional comments.

    On an important note, CLRX did improve the Board and the management team significantly with their two recent additions. This is vital, as Mika certainly does not have a good track record given his poor performance running Tegal. He needs all the help he can get, and to his credit, CLRX added a COO with strong sector experience and a Board Member with an outstanding track record.

    The operating leverage in the CLRX business remains large, given the $5 million annual cost to break-even, not including expansion costs for other business lines. The customer base continues to improve, and it is true, that we are in the early innings of genetic testing. However, in contrast to what Mika said, testing of non-Foundation Medicine companies is alive and well, and ramping. Quest Diagnostics, in particular, is beefing up its focus on this sector and companion diagnostics are being developed by biopharma. As Foundation Medicine is proving, and they do have the best end-to-end platform for tissue based tests, the information that is being garnered from the testing is changing cancer care. FYI, Biocept (NASDAQ: BIOC) is very well positioned for lipid based testing, which will be a huge area to complement tissue based tests as FMI indicated on their quarterly call. In any case, each of the genetic testing firms are dealing with their own reimbursement issues...but so far, reimbursement has been reasonable, with most genetic tests ranging from $2,500-$3,5000. CLRX is clearly not making much money per test. More later...

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