While I agree that it is highly likely the current equity gets substantially diluted, MCP does have a few bargaining chips. Paradoxically, MCP has the most leverage when it is the weakest because the threat is for management to walk away from the company. There is no way a banker wants to run MCP. They know they would completely destroy whatever value was left. Given that management and the board own a big chunk of the equity, they will fight to preserve some value for it. Especially if they are willing to kick in some more money to make everything work, they will be able to preserve 10% to maybe 20% of the new equity for the current shareholders. It also depends on REE pricing over the next few months. If they can get some pricing increases, they will have more leverage.
I think the covenant discussion of the two quarters above 4000mt and $20m EBITDA giving more borrowing capacity is a red herring. They cant wait that long (i.e., mid May next year when they report Q1 2016 results to see if they made it). They have to fix this in the next 3 to 6 months.
AMZN should buy CALL, they have a phone no one wants and they could create a disruptive product
Charlie Ergen at DISH should buy them for the same reason. He loves low cost disruptive products.
Comcast should go this route also. They already have a ton of wifi spots.
How about GOOG?
My point is that there are a lot of alternatives to a very low cost alternative. Tilson Highlighted this in his piece a year ago. One or more companies will go down this road and as wifi continues to proliferate it will have its place in the market.
WSJ article today, which cites IPAS global wifi network, points to possible disruption to T and VZ of a wireless phone company based on wifi at very low cost. Putting Call and IPAS together could create a global alternative to the cellular providers.
Yep, I filed my 13G a few weeks ago, although now because of the secondary and some conversion of the super vote stock I am below 5% and am not required to file going forward unless I go over again. Huge disappointment in this stock and managements failure to execute. We will see with the new hires whether they can get serious about actually getting this back on track. Having said that, the punishment of the stock was way overdone considering that they didn't even change EBITDA guidance.