My guess was right on. I said most of the bad news of this vote was already priced into CLVS stock and that it would only fall 10 to 20% which is exactly what it has done so far :)
Now the harder questions is where does CLVS go from here? Probably a zombie and just goes flat-line within a small trading range for a quite a while. No real new news to propel it up or push it down.
My guess is a lot of the bad news of this vote is already priced in the stock . So I think the stock will open down around 10 to 20% when it opens. But, we will know for sure what will really happen soon as CLVS should re-open for trading within the next hour or so :)
Looks like the meeting is over. My guess is that CLVS stock re-opens for trading within the next hour or so.
It will be interesting to see if CLVS falls very far as some of this bad news certainly was already priced in. My guess is CLVS falls about 10 to 20% when it re-opens for trading
Yes ET. It will open for trading in about 15 minutes from now and then we will all see what it actually will trade and instead of just guessing....
ICPT to open back up in about 20 minutes at 15:30. Should be fun to watch. My guess is it gains about some 5 to 10% in after hours. Congrats to all longs
ICPT should open for trading within the hour. Typically in the pasts I have seen stocks open the same day after the FDA panel votes but it takes an hour or two after the market closes for them to open back up for trading. Look for ICPT to open for trading soon... within an hour is my guess.
I think ACAD stays in the $20 to $30 range for now (where is goes is more dependent on the overall biotech market for now). After it gets approval it will likely pop back up over $30.
So I recommend you buy ACAD any time it drops below $25 and sell it if it goes about $30. Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
Don't be too greedy either long or short on ACAD. Sell if it goes above 30 and buy if it goes below $25. Pretty easy way to play it right now. Accumulate shares at about $25 or below right now and then sell them on the spike that will come when FDA approves at above $30. (But you might want to buy some way out of the money puts to protect yourself because if the FDA really surprises everyone and doesn't give approval then ACAD will drop huge. I doubt this will happen but you never know with the FDA).
The fact that they will very likely get a black box label is already priced in the stock. The question is how onerous the label will be. Also the other billion dollar question is how fast and big can the actual sales be? Getting FDA approval is only the first step. Actually ramping enough sales to justify the $3B market cap is a more difficult task.
The stock price already reflects the fact the already will get FDA approval. The risk is that the sales ramp will be more difficult than the bulls hope for given the very onerous black box label they are likely to receive. FDA approval is only the first step. Actually ramping some real revenue and making enough money to justify a $3B market cap is what is holding the stock back. The stock is fairly valued right now at around $27 a share. It is a sell if it runs up to $30 a share. To go any higher than $30 a share ACAD first needs to prove it can actually ramp up some real revenue on this new drug.
I told everyone who was dreaming that ACAD would go to 50 plus when it re-opened for trading that it would not. Instead, I said it would initially pop up to around 30 and then settle back down to mid to upper 20s and my guess was right.
The approval was good news and largely expected and already priced into the stock. Everyone is also already expecting a black box label though the black box label might be more restrictive than expected.
My guess is that the FDA will give the approval with a very restrictive label which will limit sales. My price target is $30 a share by May 1st assuming they get approval as expected. If ACAD pops over $30 at all it is a good selling opportunity.
At $30 ACAD stock has gone up almost 50% since Friday.
Bull make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
A 50% gain in less than a week is fantastic. Don't get greedy on this one. Time to take some profits off the table and let the rest ride.
Open and popped over $30 and now is dropping back to the high 20s. Nice pop. No real surprise as this is where you would expect ACAD to trade after positive vote from FDA panel removed some of the risk of not getting FDA approval. Once the FDA actually approves (at least I think they should approve it) then ACAD should go up another 20% assuming the black box label isn't too onerous
ACAD just went from T1 to T2. Check out the nasdaq trading halts page. This means it should re-open for trading today and then we will see who was best at guessing the re-open price :)
Likely there will be some margin calls for the shorts in the morning.... Look for ACAD to possible pop up to $30 at the open and then settle back to to $25 by end of day.